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Trump, Musk promote idea of $5,000 ‘DOGE dividend’ checks

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Elon Musk and President Donald Trump in the Oval Office at the White House, Feb. 11, 2025.

Andrew Harnik | Getty Images News | Getty Images

As the so-called Department of Government Efficiency looks to cut federal spending, Elon Musk and President Donald Trump have floated the idea that some of any savings could come back to Americans in the form of $5,000 dividend checks.

But experts say it’s too soon to say whether such checks could materialize — and caution that if they did, there could be economic consequences for consumers.

How ‘DOGE dividend’ proposal came to be

Both Musk and Trump boosted a proposal that James Fishback, CEO of investment firm Azoria, posted Feb. 18 on social media platform X, that suggested sending millions of American households checks.

“Americans sent their hard-earned tax dollars to Washington, D.C.,” Fishback told CNBC.com. He said he believes some of “those tax dollars were wasted.”

“There needs to be restitution to correct that,” Fishback said.

The White House released in early February a list of what it called “waste and abuse” of funds at the U.S. Agency for International Development, including $1.5 million to promote diversity, equity and inclusion in Serbia’s workplaces and $70,000 for a DEI musical in Ireland.

Under Trump, DOGE, an advisory group, set an aim to cut $2 trillion in federal spending. However, Musk said in a recent interview that target may be the “best-case outcome” and there may be a “good shot” of cutting half that amount.

In his proposal, Fishback starts from the presumption that DOGE will achieve $2 trillion in cuts to the government. By taking 20% of that total savings — or around $400 billion — that may leave room for around 79 million tax-paying households to each receive a $5,000 tax refund, per Fishback’s plan.

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The idea of direct money may sound familiar to American households, millions of whom received Covid-era stimulus checks. But these payments would be different from the stimulus checks, which work to stimulate the economy at a time of weak gross domestic product growth, Fishback said. Unlike the stimulus checks, the DOGE dividend checks would be only for households that pay federal income taxes, Fishback said.

The idea calls for a dividend closer to something like the Alaska Permanent Fund, in that it would represent a share of collected savings, noted Maya MacGuineas, president of the bipartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

The rebate would be sent only to households that are “net payers of federal income tax,” per the plan — people who pay more in taxes than they get back. Under those terms, lower-income Americans would not qualify for the return. According to the Pew Research Center, most Americans who have an adjusted gross income of under $40,000 effectively pay no federal income tax.

Fishback, meanwhile, told CNBC.com there’s no minimum income requirement, but Americans would have to file a federal tax return to receive the money. The prospect of the payments may provide an incentive for non-working individuals to re-enter the labor force, according to the plan.

To be sure, the terms of the plan could change if lawmakers decide to consider it.

Trump has welcomed the idea. Musk, who Trump brought on board to implement DOGE, “very much agrees the incentives are in place” to get everyday Americans to report waste, fraud and abuse, Fishback said of a recent conversation he had with the billionaire.

Congress would have to approve payments

Yet to send the DOGE checks out, the Trump administration will need Congress’ approval. Fishback has been meeting with House and Senate members to promote the idea.

Last week, House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-Louisiana, said that while it would be “great” politically, other priorities should come first. Experts say DOGE needs to figure out how much money has been saved before promising people checks in the mail.

“We have a $36 trillion federal debt. We have a giant deficit,” Johnson said. “I think we need to pay down the credit card.”

White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller recently said the DOGE checks will be “worked on through the reconciliation process with Congress that’s going underway right now.”

Yet some experts have expressed doubts about the proposal.

“There’s no appropriation for this,” said Elaine Kamarck, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution who ran the Clinton Administration’s National Performance Review, which implemented cuts in an effort to modernize and improve the federal government’s performance.

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“You cannot spend money without Congress telling you that you can spend money,” Kamarck said. “That is illegal.”

It also remains to be seen whether the DOGE initiative can generate enough savings to justify $5,000 payments, Kamarck said. Even with the savings DOGE plans hope to generate, initiatives like curbing immigration will require new or increased spending in other areas.

Without yet having generated meaningful savings, it’s premature to talk about dividend checks, MacGuineas said.

“The bottom line is when you’re running $2 trillion deficits every year, you can’t give away more money in stimulus checks,” MacGuineas said.

“Basically, you’re borrowing more to give back to people, but the borrowing still falls on them,” MacGuineas said.

But if the DOGE were able to generate $1 trillion in savings per year, “absolutely additional savings being returned to taxpayers would make total sense and be desirable,” she said.

‘Wrong time’ to have consumer stimulus?

Inflation spiked in the aftermath of the Covid pandemic and is still higher than the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Some experts worry that additional direct payments to Americans would contribute to more inflation.

“This is certainly the wrong time to have any sort of consumer stimulus,” said Judge Glock, director of research and senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute. “Inflation remains elevated; any sort of stimulus would exacerbate that inflation.”

However, the amount of money saved under DOGE may not provide payments big enough to fuel inflation, Kamarck said.

The prospect of direct payments comes as Congress may look at extending provisions in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act later this year.

There are already a number of policies being added to that package that are raising deficit concerns, said Alex Muresianu, senior policy analyst at the Tax Foundation.

“This would be another very large thing to try and squeeze in as well,” he said.

Meanwhile, Fishback maintains the DOGE dividend checks would simply refund Americans money they already contributed through income taxes.

Moreover, the way Americans would likely use an unexpected $5,000 — by paying off debt, saving or investing toward long-term goals like retirement — would not be inflationary, Fishback said, citing a 2019 CNBC survey.

“Every American has the mechanism with DOGE and the incentive with the DOGE dividend to report this waste, fraud and abuse,” Fishback said. “We’ll save even more of our hard-earned tax dollars when we give every American skin in the game.”

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What student loan forgiveness opportunities still remain under Trump

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Under the Biden administration, the U.S. Department of Education made regular announcements that it was forgiving student debt for thousands of people under various relief programs and repayment plans.

That’s changed under President Donald Trump.

In his first few months in office, Trump — who has long been critical of education debt cancellation — signed an executive order aimed at limiting eligibility for the popular Public Service Loan Forgiveness program, and his Education Department revised some student loan repayment plans to no longer conclude in debt erasure.

“You have the administration trying to limit PSLF credits, and clear attacks on the income-based repayment with forgiveness options,” said Malissa Giles, a consumer bankruptcy attorney in Virginia.

The White House did not respond to CNBC’s request for comment.

Here’s what to know about the current status of federal student loan forgiveness opportunities.

Forgiveness chances narrow on repayment plans

The Biden administration’s new student loan repayment plan, Saving on a Valuable Education, or SAVE, isn’t expected to survive under Trump, experts say. A U.S. appeals court already blocked the plan in February after a GOP-led challenge to the program.

SAVE came with two key provisions that lawsuits targeted: It had lower monthly payments than any other federal student loan repayment plan, and it led to quicker debt erasure for those with small balances.

“I personally think you will see SAVE dismantled through the courts or the administration,” Giles said.

But the Education Department under Trump is now arguing that the ruling by the 8th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals required it to end the loan forgiveness under repayment plans beyond SAVE. As a result, the Pay As You Earn and Income-Contingent Repayment options no longer wipe debt away after a certain number of years.

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There’s some good news: At least one repayment plan still leads to debt erasure, said higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz. That plan is called Income-Based Repayment.

If a borrower enrolled in ICR or PAYE eventually switches to IBR, their previous payments made under the other plans will count toward loan forgiveness under IBR, as long as they meet the IBR’s other requirements, Kantrowitz said. (Some borrowers may opt to take that strategy if they have a lower monthly bill under ICR or PAYE than they would on IBR.)

Public Service Loan Forgiveness remains

Despite Trump‘s executive order in March aimed at limiting eligibility for Public Service Loan Forgiveness, the program remains intact. Any changes to the program would likely take months or longer to materialize, and may even need congressional approval, experts say.

PSLF, which President George W. Bush signed into law in 2007, allows many not-for-profit and government employees to have their federal student loans canceled after 10 years of payments.

What’s more, any changes to PSLF can’t be retroactive, consumer advocates say. That means that if you are currently working for or previously worked for an organization that the Trump administration later excludes from the program, you’ll still get credit for that time — at least up until when the changes go into effect.

For now, the language in the president’s executive order was fairly vague. As a result, it remains unclear exactly which organizations will no longer be considered a qualifying employer under PSLF, experts said.

However, in his first few months in office, Trump has targeted immigrants, transgender and nonbinary people and those who work to increase diversity across the private and public sector. Many nonprofits work in these spaces, providing legal support or doing advocacy and education work.

For now, those pursuing PSLF should print out a copy of their payment history on StudentAid.gov or request one from their loan servicer. They should keep a record of the number of qualifying payments they’ve made so far, said Jessica Thompson, senior vice president of The Institute for College Access & Success.

“We urge borrowers to save all documentation of their payments, payment counts, and employer certifications to ensure they have any information that might be useful in the future,” Thompson said.

Other loan cancellation opportunities to consider

Federal student loan borrowers also remain entitled to a number of other student loan forgiveness opportunities.

The Teacher Loan Forgiveness program offers up to $17,500 in loan cancellation to those who’ve worked full time for “complete and consecutive academic years in a low-income school or educational service agency,” among other requirements, according to the Education Department.

(One thing to note: This program can’t be combined with PSLF, and so borrowers should decide which avenue makes the most sense for them.)

Student loan matching funds

In less common circumstances, you may be eligible for a full discharge of your federal student loans under Borrower Defense if your school closed while you were enrolled or if you were misled by your school or didn’t receive a quality education.

Borrowers may qualify for a Total and Permanent Disability discharge if they suffer from a mental or physical disability that is severe and permanent and prevents them from working. Proof of the disability can come from a doctor, the Social Security Administration or the Department of Veterans Affairs.

With the federal government rolling back student loan forgiveness measures, experts also recommend that borrowers explore the many state-level relief programs available. The Institute of Student Loan Advisors has a database of student loan forgiveness programs by state.

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Many Americans are worried about running out of money in retirement

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Many Americans are worried they’ll run out of money in retirement.

In fact, a new survey from Allianz Life finds that 64% Americans worry more about running out of money than they do about dying. Among the reasons cited for those fears include high inflation, Social Security benefits not providing enough support and high taxes.

The fear of running out of money was most prominent for Gen Xers who are approaching retirement. However, a majority of millennials and baby boomers also said they worry about their money lasting, according to the online survey of 1,000 individuals conducted between January and February.

Separately, a new Employee Benefit Research Institute report finds most retirees say they are living the lifestyle they envisioned and are able to spend money within reason. Yet more than half of those surveyed agreed at least somewhat that they spend less because of worries they will run out of money, according to the survey of more than 2,700 individuals conducted between January and February.

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Meanwhile, a Northwestern Mutual survey reported that 51% of Americans think it’s “somewhat or very likely” they will outlive their savings. The survey polled 4,626 U.S. adults aged 18 and older in January.

Since those studies were conducted, new tariff policies have caused disturbance in the stock markets and prompted speculation that inflation may increase. Meanwhile, new leadership at the Social Security Administration has prompted fears about the continuity of benefits. Those headlines may negatively affect retirement confidence, experts say.

With employers now providing a 401(k) plan and other savings plans versus pensions, it is largely up to workers to manage how much they save heading into retirement and how much they spend once they reach that life stage. That responsibility can also lead to worries of running out of money in the future, experts say.

How to manage the ‘fear of outliving your resources’

Because of the unique risks every individual or couple faces when planning for retirement, the best approach is typically to transfer some of that burden to a third party, said David Blanchett, head of retirement research at PGIM DC Solutions.

Creating a guaranteed lifetime income stream that covers essential expenses can help reduce the financial impact of any events that require retirees to cut back on spending, Blanchett explained.

That should first start with delaying Social Security benefits, he said. While eligible retirees can claim benefits as early as 62, holding off up until age 70 can provide the biggest monthly benefits. Social Security is also unique in that it provides annual adjustments for inflation.

73% of Americans are financially stressed

Next, retirees may want to consider buying a lifetime income annuity that can help amplify the monthly income they can expect. Admittedly, those products can be complicated to understand. Therefore Blanchett recommends starting out by comparing very basic products like single premium immediate annuities that are easier to compare.

“Unless you do those things, you just can’t get rid of that fear of outliving your resources,” Blanchett said.

Without a guaranteed income stream, retirees bear all of the financial risk themselves, he said.

 “Retirement could last 10 years; it could last 40 years,” Blanchett said. “You just don’t know how long it’s going to be.”

Among retirees, there has been some hesitation to buy annuities, said Craig Copeland, EBRI’s director of wealth benefits research. Such a purchase requires parting with a lump sum of money in exchange for the promise of a guaranteed income stream.

“We see great increase in interest, but we aren’t seeing upticks in take up yet,” Copeland said. “I do think that’s going to start to change.”

What can help boost retirement confidence

To effectively plan for retirement, it helps to seek professional financial assistance, experts say.

Meanwhile, few people have a plan of their own for how they may live on the assets they’ve worked hard to accumulate, according to Kelly LaVigne, vice president of consumer insights at Allianz Life.

“This is something that you should not plan on doing on your own,” LaVigne said.

While the survey from Northwestern Mutual separately found individuals think they need $1.26 million to retire comfortably, the real number individuals need is based on their personal situation, said Kyle Menke, founder and wealth management advisor at Menke Financial, a Northwestern Mutual company.

In thinking about how life will look in 30 years, there are a variety of things to consider, Menke said. This includes stock market returns, taxes, inflation and medical expenses, he said.

Even people who have enough money for retirement often don’t feel confident in their ability to manage all of those factors on their own, he said. Financial advisors have the ability to run different simulations and stress test a plan, which can help give retirees and aspiring retirees the confidence they’re lacking.

“I think that’s where the biggest gap is,” said Menke, referring to the confidence Americans are lacking without a plan.

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Trump tariffs will hurt lower income Americans more than the rich: study

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Shipping containers at the Port of Seattle on April 16, 2025.

David Ryder/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Tariffs levied by President Donald Trump during his second term would hurt the poorest U.S. households more than the richest over the short term, according to a new analysis.

Tariffs are a tax that importers pay on foreign goods. Economists expect consumers to shoulder at least some of that tax burden in the form of higher prices, depending on how businesses pass along the costs.

In 2026, taxes for the poorest 20% of households would rise about four times more than those in the top 1%, if the current tariff policies were to stay in place. Those were findings according to an analysis published Wednesday by the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy.

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For the bottom 20% of households — who will have incomes of less than $29,000 in 2026 — the tariffs will impose a tax increase equal to 6.2% of their income that year, on average, according to ITEP’s analysis.

Meanwhile, those in the top 1%, with an income of more than $915,000 a year, would see their taxes rise 1.7% relative to their income, on average, ITEP found.

Economists analyze the financial impact of policy relative to household income because it illustrates how their disposable income — and quality of life — are impacted.

Taxes by ‘another name’

“Tariffs are just taxes on Americans by another name,” researchers at the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank, wrote in 2017, during Trump’s first term.

“[They] raise the price of food and clothing, which make up a larger share of a low-income household’s budget,” they wrote, adding: “In fact, cutting tariffs could be the biggest tax cut low-income families will ever see.”

Meanwhile, there’s already evidence that some retailers are raising costs.

A recent analysis by the Yale Budget Lab also found that Trump tariffs are a “regressive” policy, meaning they hurt those at the bottom more than the top.  

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The short-term tax burden of tariffs is about 2.5 times greater for those at the bottom, the Yale analysis found. It examined tariffs and retaliatory trade measures through April 15.

“Lower income consumers are going to get pinched more by tariffs,” said Ernie Tedeschi, director of economics at the Yale Budget Lab and former chief economist at the White House Council of Economic Advisers during the Biden administration.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said tariffs may lead to a “one-time price adjustment” for consumers. But he also coupled trade policy as part of a broader White House economic agenda that includes a forthcoming legislative package of tax cuts.

“We’re also working on the tax bill and for working Americans, I believe that the reduction in taxes is going to be substantially more,” Bessent said April 2.

It’s also unclear how current tariff policy might change. The White House has signaled trade deals with certain nations and exemptions for certain products may be in the offing.

Trump has imposed a 10% tariff on imports from most U.S. trading partners. Mexico and Canada face 25% levies on a tranche of goods, and many Chinese goods face import duties of 145%. Specific products also face tariffs, like a 25% duty on aluminum, steel and automobiles.

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