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PPI inflation report February 2025:

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Wholesale price measure was flat in February, compared with expected increase

Wholesale prices were flat in February providing some more welcome news for inflation amid tariff fears, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday.

The producer price index, considered a leading indicator for pipeline inflation pressures, showed no gain for the month after jumping an upwardly revised 0.6% in January, seasonally adjusted figures showed. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a 0.3% increase.

Excluding food and energy, core PPI decreased 0.1%, also against an estimate for a 0.3% increase and the first negative reading since July. Core prices also excluding trade services showed a gain of 0.2%.

Stock market futures pared losses following the report while Treasury yields remained higher.

The report comes a day after the BLS reported that the consumer price index rose 0.2% for February, putting the headline inflation rate at 2.8%, a slight easing from January and some encouraging news at a time when markets are concerned over the impact that President Donald Trump’s tariffs will have on costs.

Whereas CPI measures what consumers pay at the register for goods and services, PPI is a gauge of final demand prices that producers get for their products.

Federal Reserve officials more closely rely on a Commerce Department inflation measure that will be released later this month, though PPI and CPI figures feed into that report.

On a year-over-year basis, headline producer prices increased 3.2%, well ahead of the Fed’s 2% goal though below the 3.7% pace in January. Core PPI was up 3.4% in February, down 0.4 percentage point from January.

Markets are assigning near 100% odds that the Fed again will stay on hold when it’s two-day policy meeting concludes next Wednesday.

Policymakers have said repeatedly that they are taking a cautious approach, particularly when it comes to Trump’s fiscal and trade policy. Current market expectations are for the Fed to cut rates next in June and follow up with the equivalent of two more quarter percentage point reductions before the end of the year.

A 0.2% drop in services prices offset a 0.3% increase in goods. Two-thirds of the increase in goods came due to a 53.6% surge in chicken egg prices, the BLS said. Eggs have soared in part because of avian flu that has hit supplies, though there is some evidence that prices have eased in March as outbreaks have slowed.

On the services side, more than 40% of the decline came from a 1.4% decrease in margins for machinery and vehicle wholesaling.

Economics

Consumer sentiment drops in March to 57.9, according to University of Michigan survey, worse than expected

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An employee restocks the shelves in the meat section of a supermarket in Monterey Park, California, on February 12, 2025.

Frederic J. Brown | Afp | Getty Images

Consumer sentiment took another hit in March as worries intensified over inflation and a slumping stock market, according to the University of Michigan’s latest sentiment survey released Friday.

The survey posted a mid-month reading of 57.9, which represents a 10.5% decline from February and was below the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 63.2. The reading was 27.1% below a year ago.

While the current conditions index fell a less severe 3.3%, the expectations measure for the future was off 15.3% on a monthly basis and 30% from the same period in 2024.

In addition, fears grew over where inflation is headed as President Donald Trump institutes tariffs against U.S. trading partners.

The one-year outlook spiked to 4.9%, up 0.6 percentage point from February and the highest reading since November 2022. At the five-year horizon, the outlook jumped to 3.9%, up 0.4 percentage point for the highest level since February 1993.

While the survey is often prone to disparities between parties, survey officials said sentiment slumped across partisan lines along with virtually all demographics.

“Many consumers cited the high level of uncertainty around policy and other economic factors; frequent gyrations in economic policies make it very difficult for consumers to plan for the future, regardless of one’s policy preferences,” survey director Joanna Hsu said. “Consumers from all three political affiliations are in agreement that the outlook has weakened since February.”

Expectations fell 10% for Republicans, 24% for Democrats and 12% for independents, Hsu added.

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UK monthly GDP data for January

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Men and women socialize at the end of the day outside The Castle Pub in London, United Kingdom.

Robert Nickelsberg | Getty Images News | Getty Images

The U.K.’s economy unexpectedly shrank by 0.1% month-on-month in January, official figures showed on Friday.

Britain’s Office for National Statistics said the fall was mainly due to a contraction in the production sector.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected the country’s GDP to grow by 0.1%.

The U.K. economy grew by 0.1% in the fourth quarter, beating expectations, ONS data showed last month. It flatlined in the third quarter.

The monthly GDP data has been checkered since then, with a 0.1% contraction in October, a 0.1% expansion in November and a 0.4% month-on-month expansion in December thanks, to growth in services and production.

Friday’s GDP release will be the last data print before the U.K. Treasury’s “Spring Statement” on March 26, when Chancellor Rachel Reeves presents an update on her plans for the British economy.

The statement is released alongside economic forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility, the U.K.’s independent economic and fiscal forecaster, which gives its assessment on the likely impact of the government’s tax and spending plans.

There have been concerns that the Treasury’s fiscal plans, which were laid out last fall and which will increase the tax burden on British businesses, could weigh on investment, jobs and growth. Reeves has defended the tax rises, saying they’re a one-off measure and necessary to boost investment in public services.

The Bank of England made its first interest rate cut of the year in February, signaling further cuts were to come as it halved the U.K.’s growth forecast for 2025 from 1.5% to 0.75%.

The central bank said it would judge how to balance the need to boost growth with the inflationary risk posed by U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs. The U.K. has not been targeted so far.

This breaking news is being updated.

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Economics

Why Trump wants to bring aluminum production back to the U.S.

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Americans use a lot of aluminum.

The metal is both lightweight and an effective conductor of electricity, giving it countless applications in transportation and energy systems alongside culinary work and more.

“It really is the magic metal,” said Charles Johnson, president and CEO of the Aluminum Association.

Aluminum is one of 50 “critical minerals” identified by the U.S. Geological Survey. But most production of aluminum occurs in other countries.

The Trump administration would like to bring some of that production into the U.S. Its main policy tool here will be tariffs, which are taxes on imported goods.

Since 2018, the U.S. has levied a 10% tariff on aluminum imports. During the Biden years, various trading partners were exempted from those fees. As a result, the effective rate for aluminum entering the U.S. was just 3.91% in February 2025, according to S&P Global. In March 2025, President Donald Trump raised existing tariffs on steel and aluminum to 25%.

Canada is by far the largest source of U.S. imports of aluminum.

The full price-level effects of these tariffs are unknown and any analysis is subject to revision as trade negotiations unfold. Still, some experts believe that price increases for consumers potentially could be small.

“When you consider a $40,000 car or something like that, it might increase the price by about $75,” said Scott Paul, president at the Alliance for American Manufacturing, an advocacy and lobbying group.

The administration says that these tariffs are necessary to fight trends in the global economy that disadvantage the U.S, primarily the rising importance of China.

“The subsidies allowed China to come in at an artificially low price. And that has roiled the aluminum industry globally and in particular in the United States,” said Paul.

The Aluminum Association, a U.S. organization comprised of industry decision makers, believes that rebuilding domestic smelting capacity could take large provisions of electricity and potentially have a net negative effect on the domestic labor force. In an interview with CNBC, the group also noted that it could take around eight to 10 years to build new industrial facilities like “smelters” which convert alumina into its final, consumer-friendly form.

“In the meantime we will import,” Johnson said.

Watch the video above to see why President Trump is taxing imports of aluminum.

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