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Selling out during the market’s worst days can hurt you: research

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U.S. stocks saw wild market swings on Monday as the tariff sell-off continued.

For some investors, it may be tempting to head for the exits rather than ride those ups and downs.

Yet investors who sell risk missing out on the upside.

“When there’s a bad sell-off, that bad sell-off is typically followed by a strong bounce back,” said Jack Manley, global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management.

“Given the nature of this sell-off, that likelihood for that bounce back, whenever it occurs, to be pretty concentrated and pretty powerful is that much higher,” Manley said.

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The market’s best days tend to closely follow the worst days, according to JPMorgan Asset Management’s research.

In all, seven of the market’s 10 best days occurred within two weeks of the 10 worst days, according to JPMorgan’s data spanning the past 20 years. For example, in 2020, markets saw their second-worst day of the year on March 12 at the onset of the Covid pandemic. The next day, the markets saw their second-best day of the year.

The cost of missing the market’s best days

Investors who stay the course fare much better over time, according to the JPMorgan research.

Take a $10,000 investment in the S&P 500 index.

If an investor put that sum in on Jan. 3, 2005, and left that money untouched until Dec. 31, 2024, they would have amassed $71,750, for a 10.4% annualized return over that time.

Yet if that same investor had sold their holdings — and therefore missed the market’s best days — they would have accumulated much less.

For the investor who put $10,000 in the S&P 500 in 2005, missing the 10 best market days would bring their portfolio value down from $71,750 had they stayed invested through the end of 2024 to $32,871, for a 6.1% return.

The more that investor moved in and out of the market, the more potential upside they would have lost. If they missed the market’s best 60 days between 2005 and 2025, their return would be -3.7% and their balance would be just $4,712 — a sum well below the $10,000 originally invested.

How investors can adjust their perspective

Yet while investors who stay the course stand to reap the biggest rewards, we’re wired to do the opposite, according to behavioral finance.

Big market drops can put investors in fight or flight mode, and selling out of the market can feel like running toward safety.

It helps for investors to adjust their perspective, according to Manley.

It wasn’t long ago that the S&P 500 was climbing to new all-time highs, reaching a new 5,000 milestone in February 2024, and then climbing to 6,000 for the first time in November 2024.

At some point, the index will again reach new all-time records.

Managing your money through volatility

However, investors tend to expect tomorrow to be worse than today, Manley said.

It would help for them to adjust their perspective, he said.  

In 150 years of stock market history, there have been wars, natural disasters, acts of terror, financial crises, a global pandemic and more. Yet the market has always eventually recovered and climbed to new all-time highs.

“If that becomes what you’re looking at, kind of the light at the end of the tunnel, then it becomes a lot easier to stomach the day in, day out volatility,” Manley said.

Advisor: Ask yourself this one key question

When markets hit bottom at the onset of the Covid pandemic, Barry Glassman, a certified financial planner and the founder and president of Glassman Wealth Services, said he asked clients who wanted to cash out one question: “Two years from now, do you think the market is going to be higher than it is today?”

Universally, most said yes. Based on that answer, Glassman advised the clients to do nothing.

Today, the markets have not fallen as far as that Covid market drop. But the question on the two-year outlook — and the resulting response to generally stay put — is still relevant now, said Glassman, who is also a member of the CNBC FA Council.

It’s also important to consider the purpose for the money, he said. If a client in their 50s has money in retirement accounts, those are long-term dollars that over the next 10 to 15 years will likely outperform in stocks compared to other investment choices, he said.

For investors who want to reduce risk, it can make sense, he said. But that doesn’t mean cashing out completely.

“You don’t need to go to 0% stocks,” Glassman said. “That’s just not prudent.”

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Personal Finance

Investors and the democratization of private equity

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Private assets in 401(k) plans: Here's what to know

Private equity has historically been the playground of institutional investors, pensions, endowments and accredited investors — a group that includes high-net-worth and ultra-high-net-worth individuals, banks, financial firms and trusts. These investors are usually deemed financially sophisticated, capable of handling the risks and illiquidity inherent in long-term private market investments.

However, a recent push by the Securities and Exchange Commission to broaden the definition of an “accredited investor” has opened the door for retail investors to access PE.

This shift raises important questions: Are retail investors adequately prepared to take on the complexities and risks that come with investing in private equity? Do they understand that they may simply be targeted to fill capacity, often receiving fewer desirable opportunities compared to institutional players? 

A rush to private markets

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The allure of private equity is considerable. A 2024 analysis from Bain & Company projects that private market assets will grow at more than twice the rate of public assets, reaching $60 trillion to $65 trillion globally by 2032. This explosive growth has understandably sparked a wave of interest among retail investors, many of whom are drawn to the promise of diversification and higher returns, especially after the volatility of traditional markets that occurred in 2022. 

However, the democratization of private equity comes with significant caveats.

Retail investors are often seen as a source of capacity for PE firms, providing capital that more sophisticated institutional investors may shun. These opportunities, frequently offered through vehicles like interval funds, are structured to mimic traditional mutual funds but with limited liquidity — often allowing withdrawals only quarterly, sometimes capping or suspending them entirely. While these structures may offer access to private markets, they often lack the exclusivity and prime opportunities reserved for institutional investors. 

Moreover, retail investors may find it challenging to navigate the full range of complexities that can accompany investment in private equity. Unlike public markets, private equity often operates in an opaque environment, with no requirement to disclose financials, operations or liabilities. This lack of transparency can leave retail investors in the dark about the true risks and performance of their investments.

Additionally, the illiquid nature of these non-correlated assets means investors may be prepared to wait years for an exit, with no guarantee of returns. What happens if a retail investor needs to liquidate their position during a market downturn? The options are limited, and the consequences can be severe.

The risk of FOMO

The fear of missing out on alternative investments like private equity can be a powerful motivator, but it can also lead to poor decision-making. Retail investors may not fully appreciate the nuances of private equity, such as the higher fees, longer lock-up periods and limited liquidity. They may also underestimate the risks associated with investing in an industry that thrives on exclusivity and general sophistication. 

While institutional investors typically have the resources to conduct thorough due diligence and the ability to negotiate favorable terms, retail investors often rely on intermediaries who may not have their best interests at heart. This dynamic can result in retail investors being offered lower-tier opportunities, such as co-investments, or funds-of-funds, which may not deliver the same returns as direct investments in top-tier private equity funds. 

Further, the lack of regulatory oversight in private equity means retail investors must rely on their own judgment and the credibility of the firms they invest in. This can be a tall order for individuals without deep expertise or experience in what has historically shown itself to be a complex and opaque industry. 

Proceed with caution

The democratization of private equity is a double-edged sword. While it offers retail investors access to an asset class previously reserved for the wealthy and institutional players, it also exposes them to significant risks and complexities. The truth about private equity is that it is not a one-size-fits-all solution. It requires patience, expertise and a high tolerance for risk — attributes that may not align with every retail investor’s profile or objectives. 

Why this CEO wants private assets in retirement plans

As the rush to private markets continues, maintaining a healthy skepticism is essential. Retail investors must ask themselves whether they are truly prepared for the complexities of private equity. Are they willing to accept the illiquidity, opacity and potential for lower-tier opportunities? Or are they being lured by the promise of higher returns without fully understanding the risks? 

Only time will tell how the democratization of private equity will play out. In the meantime, retail investors should approach PE opportunities with caution, seeking advice from trusted financial professionals while carefully weighing the potential rewards versus the risks.

Jonathan Foster is president and CEO at Angeles Wealth Management.

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Personal Finance

As Real ID deadline approaches, there are ‘workarounds,’ experts say

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The deadline for U.S. travelers to get a Real ID is fast approaching — and those who don’t have one may not be able to board flights within the U.S.

The Real ID card is an optional, upgraded driver’s license or state identification card that is issued by a state driver’s licensing agency and marked with a star.

The good news: There are other forms of identification U.S. travelers can use — such as a valid U.S. passport, passport card, permanent resident card, or certain Department of Homeland Security trusted traveler cards — if they can’t get a Real ID by the deadline, May 7.

“There are workarounds people can use,” said John Breyault, a travel expert at the National Consumers League, a consumer advocacy group. “Most people already have the ability to travel, whether they have a Real ID or not.”

About 19% of travelers don’t yet have a Real ID-compliant type of identification, according to Transportation Security Administration data as of Thursday.

Passengers who arrive at the airport without an acceptable form of ID “can expect to face delays, additional screening and the possibility of not being permitted into the security checkpoint,” according to the TSA.

Even passengers who have a Real ID card or other acceptable ID should aim to be at the airport at least 1½ hours ahead of their flight, due to likely delays in airport security lines as enforcement gets underway, Breyault said.

What is the Real ID law?

Congress passed the Real ID Act in 2005. The law set minimum security standards for state-issued driver’s licenses and ID cards.

The federal government will require Americans who access federal facilities to have a Real ID starting May 7. That includes travelers who go through TSA airport security checkpoints and board commercial airplanes, even for domestic flights.

The rule applies to all airline passengers 18 years and older, including TSA PreCheck members.

How to get around the Real ID rule

Travelers can skirt the requirement to present a Real ID card if they have other types of approved identification.

Experts said the most common among them are: a passport or passport card; a Global Entry card; an enhanced driver’s license issued by Washington state, Michigan, Minnesota, New York or Vermont; or a permanent resident card, also known as a green card.

Here’s a list of all acceptable alternatives, according to the TSA:

  • State-issued enhanced driver’s license
  • U.S. passport
  • U.S. passport card
  • Department of Homeland Security-issued trusted traveler cards (Global Entry, NEXUS, SENTRI, FAST)
  • U.S. Department of Defense ID, including IDs issued to dependents
  • Permanent resident card
  • Border crossing card
  • An acceptable photo ID issued by a federally recognized Tribal Nation/Indian Tribe, including Enhanced Tribal Cards (ETCs).
  • HSPD-12 PIV card
  • Foreign government-issued passport
  • Canadian provincial driver’s license or Indian and Northern Affairs Canada card
  • Transportation worker identification credential
  • U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services Employment Authorization Card (I-766)
  • U.S. Merchant Mariner Credential
  • Veteran Health Identification Card (VHIC)

‘Get that Real ID’

It may be somewhat riskier to travel with an alternative document such as a passport for domestic flights, said Sally French, a travel expert at NerdWallet.

“A passport is much more complicated to replace than a driver’s license, and it’s more expensive,” French said. “Get that Real ID.”

A traditional passport book costs $130 to renew. Real ID fees vary by state but are generally less costly, experts said. They typically aren’t more expensive than a standard driver’s license.

For example, in California it costs $45 to renew a standard driver’s license or $39 to renew a regular ID card; in Virginia, there’s a $10 one-time Real ID fee, plus a driver’s license fee, usually $32.

Desperate travelers can also gamble by showing up at the airport without a Real ID-compliant form of identification on May 7 and beyond, and hope airport agents show some mercy, French said.

It’s a “much longer screening” process and isn’t guaranteed, French said. It’s a “Hail Mary,” she said.

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Personal Finance

What student loan forgiveness opportunities still remain under Trump

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Under the Biden administration, the U.S. Department of Education made regular announcements that it was forgiving student debt for thousands of people under various relief programs and repayment plans.

That’s changed under President Donald Trump.

In his first few months in office, Trump — who has long been critical of education debt cancellation — signed an executive order aimed at limiting eligibility for the popular Public Service Loan Forgiveness program, and his Education Department revised some student loan repayment plans to no longer conclude in debt erasure.

“You have the administration trying to limit PSLF credits, and clear attacks on the income-based repayment with forgiveness options,” said Malissa Giles, a consumer bankruptcy attorney in Virginia.

The White House did not respond to CNBC’s request for comment.

Here’s what to know about the current status of federal student loan forgiveness opportunities.

Forgiveness chances narrow on repayment plans

The Biden administration’s new student loan repayment plan, Saving on a Valuable Education, or SAVE, isn’t expected to survive under Trump, experts say. A U.S. appeals court already blocked the plan in February after a GOP-led challenge to the program.

SAVE came with two key provisions that lawsuits targeted: It had lower monthly payments than any other federal student loan repayment plan, and it led to quicker debt erasure for those with small balances.

“I personally think you will see SAVE dismantled through the courts or the administration,” Giles said.

But the Education Department under Trump is now arguing that the ruling by the 8th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals required it to end the loan forgiveness under repayment plans beyond SAVE. As a result, the Pay As You Earn and Income-Contingent Repayment options no longer wipe debt away after a certain number of years.

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There’s some good news: At least one repayment plan still leads to debt erasure, said higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz. That plan is called Income-Based Repayment.

If a borrower enrolled in ICR or PAYE eventually switches to IBR, their previous payments made under the other plans will count toward loan forgiveness under IBR, as long as they meet the IBR’s other requirements, Kantrowitz said. (Some borrowers may opt to take that strategy if they have a lower monthly bill under ICR or PAYE than they would on IBR.)

Public Service Loan Forgiveness remains

Despite Trump‘s executive order in March aimed at limiting eligibility for Public Service Loan Forgiveness, the program remains intact. Any changes to the program would likely take months or longer to materialize, and may even need congressional approval, experts say.

PSLF, which President George W. Bush signed into law in 2007, allows many not-for-profit and government employees to have their federal student loans canceled after 10 years of payments.

What’s more, any changes to PSLF can’t be retroactive, consumer advocates say. That means that if you are currently working for or previously worked for an organization that the Trump administration later excludes from the program, you’ll still get credit for that time — at least up until when the changes go into effect.

For now, the language in the president’s executive order was fairly vague. As a result, it remains unclear exactly which organizations will no longer be considered a qualifying employer under PSLF, experts said.

However, in his first few months in office, Trump has targeted immigrants, transgender and nonbinary people and those who work to increase diversity across the private and public sector. Many nonprofits work in these spaces, providing legal support or doing advocacy and education work.

For now, those pursuing PSLF should print out a copy of their payment history on StudentAid.gov or request one from their loan servicer. They should keep a record of the number of qualifying payments they’ve made so far, said Jessica Thompson, senior vice president of The Institute for College Access & Success.

“We urge borrowers to save all documentation of their payments, payment counts, and employer certifications to ensure they have any information that might be useful in the future,” Thompson said.

Other loan cancellation opportunities to consider

Federal student loan borrowers also remain entitled to a number of other student loan forgiveness opportunities.

The Teacher Loan Forgiveness program offers up to $17,500 in loan cancellation to those who’ve worked full time for “complete and consecutive academic years in a low-income school or educational service agency,” among other requirements, according to the Education Department.

(One thing to note: This program can’t be combined with PSLF, and so borrowers should decide which avenue makes the most sense for them.)

Student loan matching funds

In less common circumstances, you may be eligible for a full discharge of your federal student loans under Borrower Defense if your school closed while you were enrolled or if you were misled by your school or didn’t receive a quality education.

Borrowers may qualify for a Total and Permanent Disability discharge if they suffer from a mental or physical disability that is severe and permanent and prevents them from working. Proof of the disability can come from a doctor, the Social Security Administration or the Department of Veterans Affairs.

With the federal government rolling back student loan forgiveness measures, experts also recommend that borrowers explore the many state-level relief programs available. The Institute of Student Loan Advisors has a database of student loan forgiveness programs by state.

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