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Experts see higher stagflation risks. Here’s what it means for your money

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Weary consumers, already grappling with high prices, now face an added potential risk: stagflation.

Stagflation — an economic term used to describe a combination of rising inflation, slower economic growth and high unemployment — may be on the horizon, according to economists.

“The Trump White House tariff policy has certainly increased the risk of both higher inflation and lower growth,” said Brett House, professor of professional practice in economics at Columbia Business School.

The Trump administration’s tariff policies are fueling stagflation conditions, according to the latest CNBC Rapid Update, which averages forecasts from 14 economists.

“It’s a more pronounced risk than at any time over the past 40 years,” said Greg Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon and vice president at the National Association for Business Economics.

Uncertainty is already showing up in consumer confidence, said Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG.

“We’re seeing that kind of whiff of stagflation, where people are less secure about their jobs and they’re more worried about inflation down the road,” Swonk said.

What would stagflation mean in today’s economy?

Unidentified people line up with cans to buy gas at a Mobil gas station in Suffolk County, New York, in July 1979. In 1977 oil prices went up to more than $20 a barrel in response to increased demand and OPEC’s policy of limiting supply, which caused long lines at gas stations, and for the first time in history gasoline prices exceeded $1 a gallon.

Jim Pozarik | Hulton Archive | Getty Images

Stagflation was a major issue for the U.S. economy in the 1970s, when unemployment rates and inflation both rose as the country grappled with the costly Vietnam War and the loss of manufacturing jobs.

The 1970s-era stagflation is often associated with major oil price increases, leading to shortages and long lines at gas stations. However, some economists have argued it was actually monetary fluctuations that prompted stagflation.

The conditions prompted then Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker to implement a dramatic tightening of monetary policy in the late ’70s and ’80s known as the “Volcker shock.” While inflation did come down as the Fed pushed interest rates higher, the central bank’s moves also prompted a severe recession — often defined as two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product growth — and higher than 10% unemployment.

We are within months of 'flirting' with recession, says KPMG's Diane Swonk

Stagflation would not happen in the same way today, according to Dan Skelly, head of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management market research.

The U.S. is no longer at the whim of foreign oil, Skelly said. Moreover, unions, which prompted wage price spirals back then, are no longer as big a portion of the private work force today, he said.

The uncertainty around tariffs may affect corporate and consumer confidence, which would prompt spending and investment to slow, Skelly said. The likelihood of the growth slowdown part of stagflation is fairly high, he said.

However, Skelly said Morgan Stanley expects to see more effects in the stock market through earnings than in the economy.

Many firms are revising their economic forecasts, including the possibility of a recession, as a result of Trump administration policies, according to a new survey by Chief Executive.

Stagflation is not necessarily accompanied by a formal recession; rather, it can be slowing or stagnant growth, House said.

KPMG’s current forecast expects a shallow recession, with inflation peaking at the end of the third quarter.

“It’s not even what we saw during the pandemic,” Swonk said of the inflation spike. But it would be enough for employment to slow and to prompt a mild bout of stagflation, she said.

Stagflation, if it happens, would be the “worst of both worlds,” with higher unemployment and costs, Daco said.

“That represents a significant hardship for many families and businesses across the country,” he said.

How can you prepare for stagflation?

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Americans may be facing a challenging economic period, with slower income growth, reduced employment prospects, higher unemployment and higher prices making it more difficult to stretch household budgets, according to House.

To prepare for stagflation, consumers would need to take all the steps they would in a recession as well as the steps they would take when prices are rising, said Sarah Foster, economic analyst at Bankrate.

As tariffs are expected to drive prices up, consumers may be tempted to buy ahead, even big-ticket items such as cars, laptops, smartphones or even homes.

Before making any such purchases, it’s important to make sure it’s in your budget, Foster said.

“It is absolutely wise right now to buy something that you know could be impacted by tariffs that you’ve already been budgeting for,” Foster said.

Yet consumers should be careful when it comes to “panic buying,” she said, or spending money to save money.

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Instead of overstretching their budgets with purchases, consumers should prioritize paying down high-interest credit card debt and building up an emergency fund. Focusing on high-interest debt first can save money in the long run, and having an emergency fund provides a financial safety net.

Experts generally recommend having at least six months’ expenses set aside. While it can be difficult to sock away extra money amid higher prices, the good news is higher interest rates are still providing inflation-beating returns on cash through online high-yield savings accounts that are FDIC-insured, Foster said.

For those who have been keeping cash on the sidelines rather than investing, now is the time to start allocating toward equities and riskier assets, considering the recent market drop, Skelly said.

“Don’t do it all in one day, but start winding down some of that cash, now that values are more fair than they were a month or two ago,” Skelly said.

Investors who have reaped big profits may want to rebalance to more neutral positions now, he said.

Can the economic forecast change?

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, rear left, and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick stand as President Donald Trump signs executive orders and proclamations in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, April 9, 2025.

Nathan Howard | Reuters

There’s no guarantee stagflation will happen.

In 2022, one survey found 80% of economists said stagflation was a long-term risk.

But it was avoided at that time with a mix of strong economic growth, disinflation and a robust labor market encouraged by the Federal Reserve, Daco said.

Much of the risks popping up in today’s economic forecasts are the result of White House policies, economists say.

The Trump administration could reduce stagflation risks, Daco said, by reducing policy uncertainty, easing immigration restrictions that will reduce the labor supply, and not implementing tariffs on major trading partners.

House said the U.S. entered 2025 with a “well-performing economy,” which he said has been threatened by the Trump administration’s recent policy changes. It is up to the administration to unwind those policies and “prevent stagflation from occurring,” he said.

The White House did not respond to a request for comment from CNBC.

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How to review your insurance policy

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PUNTA GORDA – OCTOBER 10: In this aerial view, a person walks through flood waters that inundated a neighborhood after Hurricane Milton came ashore on October 10, 2024, in Punta Gorda, Florida. The storm made landfall as a Category 3 hurricane in the Siesta Key area of Florida, causing damage and flooding throughout Central Florida. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

Joe Raedle | Getty Images News | Getty Images

It’s officially hurricane season, and early forecasts indicate it’s poised to be an active one.

Now is the time to take a look at your homeowners insurance policy to ensure you have enough and the right kinds of coverage, experts say — and make any necessary changes if you don’t.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts a 60% chance of “above-normal” Atlantic hurricane activity during this year’s season, which spans from June 1 to November 30.

The agency forecasts 13 to 19 named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher. Six to 10 of those could become hurricanes, including three to five major hurricanes of Category 3, 4, or 5.

You should pay close attention to your insurance policies.

Charles Nyce

risk management and insurance professor at Florida State University

Hurricanes can cost billions of dollars worth of damages. Experts at AccuWeather estimate that last year’s hurricane season cost $500 billion in total property damage and economic loss, making the season “one of the most devastating and expensive ever recorded.”

“Take proactive steps now to make a plan and gather supplies to ensure you’re ready before a storm threatens,” Ken Graham, NOAA’s national weather service director, said in the agency’s report.

Part of your checklist should include reviewing your insurance policies and what coverage you have, according to Charles Nyce, a risk management and insurance professor at Florida State University. 

“Besides being ready physically by having your radio, your batteries, your water … you should pay close attention to your insurance policies,” said Nyce.

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You want to know four key things: the value of property at risk, how much a loss could cost you, whether you’re protected in the event of flooding and if you have enough money set aside in case of emergencies, he said.

Bob Passmore, the department vice president of personal lines at the American Property Casualty Insurance Association, agreed: “It’s really important to review your policy at least annually, and this is a good time to do it.”

Insurers often suspend policy changes and pause issuing new policies when there’s a storm bearing down. So acting now helps ensure you have the right coverage before there’s an urgent need.

Here are three things to consider about your home insurance policy going into hurricane season, according to experts.

1. Review your policy limits

2. Check your deductibles

Take a look at your deductibles, or the amount you have to pay out of pocket upfront if you file a claim, experts say.

For instance, if you have a $1,000 deductible on your policy and submit a claim for $8,000 of storm coverage, your insurer will pay $7,000 toward the cost of repairs, according to a report by NerdWallet. You’re responsible for the remaining $1,000.

A common way to lower your policy premium is by increasing your deductibles, Passmore said. 

Raising your deductible from $1,000 to $2,500 can save you an average 12% on your premium, per NerdWallet’s research.

But if you do that, make sure you have the cash on hand to absorb the cost after a loss, Passmore said.

Why the U.S. has a home insurance crisis

Don’t stop at your standard policy deductible. Look over hazard-specific provisions such as a wind deductible, which is likely to kick in for hurricane damage.

Wind deductibles are an out-of-pocket cost that is usually a percentage of the value of your policy, said Nyce. As a result, they can be more expensive than your standard deductible, he said. 

If a homeowner opted for a 2% deductible on a $500,000 house, their out-of-pocket costs for wind damages can go up to $10,000, he said.

“I would be very cautious about picking larger deductibles for wind,” he said.

3. Assess if you need flood insurance

Floods are usually not covered by a homeowners insurance policy. If you haven’t yet, consider buying a separate flood insurance policy through the National Flood Insurance Program by the Federal Emergency Management Agency or through the private market, experts say. 

It can be worth it whether you live in a flood-prone area or not: Flooding causes 90% of disaster damage every year in the U.S., according to FEMA.

In 2024, Hurricane Helene caused massive flooding in mountainous areas like Asheville in Buncombe County, North Carolina. Less than 1% of households there were covered by the NFIP, according to a recent report by the Swiss Re Institute. 

If you decide to get flood insurance with the NFIP, don’t buy it at the last minute, Nyce said. There’s usually a 30-day waiting period before the new policy goes into effect. 

“You can’t just buy it when you think you’re going to need it like 24, 48 or 72 hours before the storm makes landfall,” Nyce said. “Buy it now before the storms start to form.” 

Make sure you understand what’s protected under the policy. The NFIP typically covers up to $250,000 in damages to a residential property and up to $100,000 on the contents, said Loretta Worters, a spokeswoman for the Insurance Information Institute.

If you expect more severe damage to your house, ask an insurance agent about excess flood insurance, Nyce said.

Such flood insurance policies are written by private insurers that cover losses over and above what’s covered by the NFIP, he said.

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Average 401(k) savings rate hits a record high. See if you’re on track

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Seksan Mongkhonkhamsao | Moment | Getty Images

The average 401(k) plan savings rate recently notched a new record high — and the percentage is nearing a widely-used rule of thumb.

During the first quarter of 2025, the 401(k) savings rate, including employee and company contributions, jumped to 14.3%, according to Fidelity’s quarterly analysis of 25,300 corporate plans with 24.4 million participants.

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Despite economic uncertainty, “we definitely saw a lot of positive behaviors continue into Q1,” said Mike Shamrell, vice president of thought leadership for Fidelity’s Workplace Investing. 

The report found that employees deferred a milestone 9.5% into 401(k) plans during the first quarter, and companies contributed 4.8%. The combined 14.3% rate is the closest it’s ever been to Fidelity’s recommended 15% savings target.    

Two-thirds of increased employee deferrals during the first quarter came from “auto-escalations,” which automatically boost savings rates over time, usually in tandem with salary increases, Shamrell said.

You should aim to save at least 15% of pre-tax income each year, including company deposits, to maintain your current lifestyle in retirement, according to Fidelity. This assumes you save continuously from ages 25 to 67.

But the exact right percentage for each individual hinges on several things, such as your existing nest egg, planned retirement date, pensions and other factors, experts say.

“There’s no magic rate of savings,” because everyone spends and saves differently, said certified financial planner Larry Luxenberg, founder of Lexington Avenue Capital Management in New City, New York. “That’s the case before and after retirement.”

There’s no magic rate of savings.

Larry Luxenberg

Founder of Lexington Avenue Capital Management

Don’t miss ‘free money’ from your employer

If you can’t reach the 15% retirement savings benchmark, Shamrell suggests deferring at least enough to get your employer’s full 401(k) matching contribution.

Most companies will match a percentage of your 401(k) deferrals up to a certain limit. These deposits could also be subject to a “vesting schedule,” which determines your ownership based on the length of time you’ve been with your employer.

Still, “this probably [is] the closest thing a lot of people are going to get to free money in their life,” he said.

The most popular 401(k) match formula — used by 48% of companies on Fidelity’s platform — is 100% for the first 3% an employee contributes, and 50% for the next 2%.

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Average 401(k) balances fall due to market volatility, Fidelity says

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A few months of market swings have taken a toll on retirement savers.

The average 401(k) balance fell 3% in the first quarter of 2025 to $127,100, according to a new report by Fidelity Investments, the nation’s largest provider of 401(k) plans.

The average individual retirement account balance also sank 4% from the previous quarter to $121,983, the financial services firm found. Still, both 401(k) and IRA balances were up year over year.

The majority of retirement savers continue to contribute, Fidelity said. The average 401(k) contribution rate, including employer and employee contributions, increased to 14.3%, just shy of Fidelity’s suggested savings rate of 15%.

“Although the first quarter of 2025 posed challenges for retirement savers, it’s encouraging to see people take a continuous savings approach which focuses on their long-term retirement goals,” Sharon Brovelli, president of workplace investing at Fidelity Investments, said in a statement. “This approach will help individuals weather any type of market turmoil and stay on track.”

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U.S. markets have been under pressure ever since the White House first announced country-specific tariffs on April 2.

Since then, ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and European Union as well as China, largely due to President Donald Trump‘s on-again, off-again negotiations, caused some of the worst trading days for the S&P 500 since the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic.

However, more recently, markets largely rebounded from earlier losses. As of Wednesday morning, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was roughly flat year-to-date, while the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 were up around 1% in 2025.

‘Have a long-term strategy’

“It’s important to not get too unnerved by market swings,” said Mike Shamrell, Fidelity’s vice president of thought leadership.

Even for those nearing retirement age, those savings should have a time horizon of at least 10 to 20 years, he said, which means it’s better to “have a long-term strategy and not a short-term reaction.”

Intervening, or trying to time the market, is almost always a bad idea, said Gil Baumgarten, CEO and founder of Segment Wealth Management in Houston.

“People lose sight of the long-term benefits of investing in volatile assets, they stay focused on short-term market movements, and had they stayed put, the market would have corrected itself,” he said. “The math is so compelling to look past all that and let the stock market work itself out.”

For example, the 10 best trading days by percentage gain for the S&P 500 over the past three decades all occurred during recessions, often in close proximity to the worst days, according to a Wells Fargo analysis published last year.

And, although stocks go up and down, the S&P 500 index has an average annualized return of more than 10% over the past few decades. In fact, since 1950, the S&P has delivered positive returns 77% of the time, according to CNBC’s analysis.

“Really, you should just be betting on equities rising over time,” Baumgarten said.

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