BEIJING — Alibaba, Tencent and JD.com reported earnings this week that not only reflected improving Chinese consumer spending, but also the growing benefits of artificial intelligence in advertising.
E-commerce giant Alibaba said late Thursday its Taobao and Tmall group sales rose by 9% year on year to 101.37 billion yuan ($13.97 billion) for the three months ended March 31. That’s above the 97.94 billion yuan predicted by a FactSet analyst poll, and the quarterly growth figure was well above the 3% segment increase for the 12-month period ending March 31.
“The e-commerce and ad revenues were positive surprises as there were expectations tariffs would affect consumer behavior,” Kai Wang, Asia equity market strategist at Morningstar, said in an email regarding the three companies’ earnings results.
It’s important to note the earnings releases cover only the period before U.S.-China tensions escalated in April with new tariffs of more than 100% on products from both countries — an effective trade embargo. The two countries issued a rare joint statement Monday announcing a 90-day reduction in most of the recently added tariffs.
The U.S.-China trade dispute since April has negatively affected consumption to some extent, given the increased uncertainty for small and medium-sized businesses, Charlie Chen, managing director and head of Asia research at China Renaissance Securities, said Friday. He expects that as trade tensions ease, consumption will rise.
But despite lackluster consumption overall, sales of certain electronics and home appliances have done well since last year thanks to China’s trade-in subsidies for supporting such consumer spending.
JD.com on Tuesday said its sales of for that category surged by 17% from a year ago. Overall, the e-commerce company reported a 16.3% increase in revenue from its retail business to 263.85 billion yuan in the three months ended March 31. That was better than the 226.84 billion yuan in retail segment sales predicted by a FactSet poll.
On Wednesday, Tencent said its “fintech and business services” segment, a proxy for consumer-related business transactions, reported a 5% year-on-year revenue increase to 54.9 billion yuan in the first quarter.
While Nomura analysts said that segment revenue growth was in line with estimates, they pointed out in a note that “Tencent ads was a big outperformer in the Chinese ads industry despite the challenging macro environment.”
Tencent’s marketing services revenue surged by 20% to 31.9 billion yuan, helped by “robust advertiser demand” for short videos and other content inside its WeChat social media app. Tencent noted “ongoing AI upgrades” to its advertising platform.
AI is boosting ads
AI is helping Tencent lift its click-through rates — a measure of success for online ads — to nearly 3%, company management said on an earnings call Wednesday, according to a FactSet transcript. That’s up sharply from a 0.1% click-through rate for banner ads historically, and around 1% for feed ads, the company said.
Combined monthly average users for WeChat, known as Weixin in China, topped 1.4 billion in the first quarter for the first time. The app offers one of two major mobile payment systems used in mainland China.
Many coffee shops and online retailers also use mini-apps in WeChat for customers to place orders. Tencent said Thursday that its e-commerce operations had grown so large it was now a new unit within WeChat.
“AI ads improve efficiency and algorithm, which should translate into better targeting towards consumers even if macro conditions are not optimal,” Morningstar’s Wang said. “It is still a bit early to quantify how much incremental benefit AI ads bring compared to non-AI ads, but we have seen some monetization from AI-driven ads.”
JD said its marketing revenues climbed by 15.7% to 22.32 billion yuan for the quarter, also partly attributing that rise to AI tools.
On an earnings call Tuesday, JD management said its advertising research and development team is using large language models to improve ad conversion rates and accelerate ad revenue growth. The company added it is implementing AI tools that enable merchants to “execute complex ad campaigns” with a simple command.
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Advertisers have long sought ways to target ads at the consumers most likely to make a purchase.
Alibaba noted that marketing revenue, which it calls “customer management,” grew 12% year on year to nearly $10 billion thanks in part to increased use of the company’s AI tool for boosting merchants’ marketing efficiency, Quanzhantui.
China is set to release retail sales data for April on Monday. Analysts polled by Reuters predict a 5.5% year-on-year increase in retail sales for April, down slightly from 5.9% growth in March.
A Morgan Stanley survey from April 8 to 11, conducted immediately after the escalation in U.S.-China tensions, found that consumer confidence fell to a 2.5-year low, and 44% of respondents were concerned about job losses — the highest since 2020 when the survey began. Only 23% of consumers expect to spend more in the next quarter, the survey found, an 8 percentage point drop from the prior quarter.
Lackluster domestic demand persisted in April, with a 0.1% year-on-year drop in the consumer price index for the month — the third-straight month of decline. However, when excluding food and energy prices, the so-called core CPI rose by 0.5%, the same pace as in March.
Since the real estate market has yet to recover, and exports are restricted by geopolitics, Chen expects Chinese policymakers to focus on boosting consumption in order to achieve the year’s growth target of around 5%.
He expects related stimulus policies to include boosting spending on food and beverage, caregiving, travel, sports, and durable goods not yet included in the trade-in subsidies program.
June 18 marks the next major promotional season for shopping in China.
“I think we’re going to get a pretty good 618. Now obviously, we’re not dealing with 30% year-on-year growth anymore like we were in the first 10 years” of the shopping festival, Jacob Cooke, co-founder and CEO of WPIC Marketing + Technologies, told CNBCearlier this week. The company helps foreign brands — such as Vitamix and IS Clinical — sell online in China and other parts of Asia.
He predicts 618 sales growth will rise by “very low double-digits.”
A turbulent week in the U.S. Treasury market prompted the Treasury Department to sharply increase the size of its long-term debt buyback program, as bond prices fell even while equity markets pushed toward record highs. The divergence has drawn attention from fixed-income strategists who see it as a signal of underlying investor unease about federal borrowing levels.
What Happened This Week
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC on Thursday, August 20, 2026, that the Treasury had doubled the size of its long-term debt buyback operations, moving from roughly $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation. Bessent indicated the figure could climb further, saying “we’re going to increase the size of the buyback,” and noted the accelerated pace could exceed the announced $4 billion threshold per issue.
Buybacks allow the Treasury to repurchase outstanding government bonds directly from the market, which can help support prices and dampen yield volatility during periods of stress. The expanded program came as stocks staged a late-week recovery: the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 both advanced on Friday, August 21, even as Treasuries logged mild losses, according to Bloomberg market data.
Why Bond and Equity Markets Are Diverging
Capital.com senior market analyst Daniela Hathorn described the week’s dynamic as markets “ending the week on a softer tone after the relative calm of early August was disrupted by renewed pressure in global bond markets, another rise in oil prices, and growing uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s next move.” She noted that higher long-term borrowing costs are increasingly challenging elevated equity valuations, even as U.S. equities pull back modestly from record highs.
This divergence — equities near record levels while bonds sell off is unusual and reflects two different sets of investor concerns. Equity investors have remained focused on corporate earnings strength, particularly from large technology companies ahead of Nvidia’s closely watched August 26 earnings report. Bond investors, by contrast, are more directly exposed to concerns about the scale of federal borrowing, highlighted this week by the national debt crossing the $40 trillion threshold for the first time.
The Fed and Treasury “Working in Opposite Directions”
Wilmington Trust senior bond portfolio manager Wil Stith told Yahoo Finance that current conditions reflect “the Fed and the Treasury basically working in sort of opposite directions,” adding that the imbalance will likely require the Federal Reserve which he described as having “the larger sandbox” to adjust the federal funds rate rather than relying on Treasury market interventions alone to manage yields.
Notably, the bond market’s reaction to the Treasury’s buyback expansion was relatively muted; strategists described the move as being largely absorbed without a major rally, suggesting the underlying pressure on yields stems from factors, such as inflation persistence and debt sustainability concerns, that a buyback program alone cannot resolve.
What Comes Next
Markets are now looking to two major events in the days ahead: Nvidia’s earnings report on Wednesday, August 26, and the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, running August 27-29. This will be the first Jackson Hole gathering under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, whose public communication style and policy signals remain less established than his predecessors’, according to market commentary from Regards of Wall Street.
For investors, the key metrics to watch are the size and frequency of future Treasury buyback operations, movements in the 10-year Treasury yield, and any policy signals from Warsh’s keynote address. Continued yield volatility alongside record equity valuations would suggest the market imbalance identified this week has not yet been resolved.
The global banking system is undergoing a comprehensive modernization of cross-border payment infrastructure. Driven by real-time settlement networks, open banking APIs, and interoperable messaging standards, financial institutions and multinational corporations are eliminating multi-day delays and reducing transaction costs associated with legacy international wire transfers.
Transition to Real-Time Gross Settlement Networks
Historically, international business-to-business (B2B) payments relied on complex correspondent banking relationships involving intermediary fees and processing delays. In 2026, the widespread adoption of ISO 20022 messaging protocols alongside interconnected Real-Time Gross Settlement (RTGS) systems allows direct, end-to-end processing of cross-border transfers.
Commercial banks are providing corporate clients with continuous, 24/7 payment clearing capabilities. Real-time transaction confirmation and automated FX rate locking allow international businesses to settle cross-border trade obligations within minutes, significantly reducing counterparty risk.
Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) Interoperability
Wholesale Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) pilot initiatives are reaching operational maturity across several key financial centers. Collaborative multi-CBDC platforms enable participating central banks and commercial institutions to settle foreign exchange and international trade transactions directly on shared distributed ledgers.
These wholesale digital currency networks eliminate traditional clearinghouse delays and minimize foreign exchange slippage. Enterprise treasury departments benefit from enhanced liquidity management, as cross-border cash balances can be deployed and repatriated instantaneously.
Corporate Treasury Transformation
For enterprise treasurers, instant cross-border settlement transforms cash management strategies:
– Working Capital Optimization: Reduced transaction float allows companies to lower precautionary cash reserves and optimize short-term liquidity investments.
– Automated Reconciliation: Enriched data formats embedded in ISO 20022 payment messages streamline automated general ledger posting and invoice matching.
– Reduced Processing Overhead: Account-to-account (A2A) real-time clearing bypasses costly intermediary correspondent banking fees.
Strategic Financial Priorities
1. Upgrade Treasury Systems: Ensure internal core enterprise software supports real-time ISO 20022 payment messaging standards.
2. Leverage Instant Clearing Rails: Utilize direct payment networks to lower cross-border transaction fees and eliminate settlement delays.
3. Evaluate Multi-Currency Liquidity: Modernize liquidity management frameworks to capitalize on 24/7 real-time settlement capabilities.
The global private credit market has solidified its role as a fundamental pillar of enterprise finance, expanding rapidly across middle-market lending, asset-backed finance, and infrastructure financing. As non-bank financial institutions capture a larger share of corporate debt origination, global regulatory bodies are increasing oversight to evaluate market transparency and systemic risk interconnections.
Growth Drivers in Direct Lending
Direct lending platforms have continued to attract substantial institutional allocations from pension funds, sovereign wealth entities, and insurance companies seeking attractive risk-adjusted yields. Private debt funds offer corporate borrowers customized financing structures, faster execution timelines, and confidentiality compared to syndicated loan markets.
In 2026, private credit managers are increasingly financing larger corporate transactions, providing multi-billion-dollar credit facilities for buyout deals and corporate restructurings. The flexibility of private debt contracts—featuring unitranche pricing and tailored covenant packages—has made direct lending the preferred capital source for middle-market enterprise sponsors.
Regulatory Scrutiny and Systemic Risk Assessment
The rapid growth of non-bank intermediation has drawn heightened scrutiny from financial regulators in North America and Europe. Because private debt agreements are negotiated privately without public exchange disclosures, central banks are evaluating potential vulnerabilities related to asset valuation consistency and fund liquidity profiles.
Regulatory agencies are introducing guidelines aimed at improving reporting standards for private investment vehicles managing institutional assets. Key focus areas include monitoring leverage ratios within private credit funds and evaluating indirect credit exposures between commercial banking institutions and private debt funds.
Navigating Elevated Refinancing Costs
With benchmark interest rates remaining elevated, private debt borrowers face higher debt service obligations on floating-rate credit facilities. Financial advisory firms report an increase in proactive liability management strategies, including payment-in-kind (PIK) interest options, equity infusions from sponsors, and covenant modifications.
Private credit managers with deep operational capabilities are actively working alongside portfolio companies to optimize working capital and maintain cash flow coverage ratios during periods of higher borrowing costs.
Key Financial Takeaways
1. Mainstream Asset Class: Private credit has expanded beyond niche alternative asset status into a core corporate finance solution.
2. Enhanced Transparency Standards: Regulatory frameworks are evolving toward greater disclosure requirements for private debt managers.
3. Proactive Risk Management: Lenders and sponsors must prioritize debt sustainability and active portfolio monitoring amid high benchmark rates.