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Tax refunds decline 3.3% this year in run-up to deadline

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Fewer U.S. taxpayers have received a refund this year in the run-up to tax day compared to 2023, signaling some consumer spending may be disrupted.

Data from the Internal Revenue Service showed that 66.8 million taxpayers were reimbursed through April 5 compared to 69.1 million through April 7 last year. That means that 3.3%, or roughly 2.3 million, fewer Americans obtained the boost to their finances that they got in 2023.

Still, while the number of refunds dropped, the average amount received ticked higher to just over $3,000 compared to almost $2,900 last year. Americans are increasingly reliant on these refunds, with many saying they’d use the extra cash to pay off debt, according to a survey conducted by LendingTree.

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IRS 1040 individual income tax forms

Daniel Acker/Bloomberg

The IRS has received more than 100 million tax returns so far in 2024 and a massive surge is expected over the last week of tax season culminating with the April 15 deadline. But people that tend to file late typically don’t anticipate a refund.

Separately, a poll conducted by CivicScience found that more Americans say they owed money unexpectedly or owed more than thought this year compared to 2023, the latter being especially true for households earning $100,000 or more annually.

The survey results also suggested that tax refunds may be correlated with economic sentiment. Within the past 30 days, almost two thirds of those who owed more than anticipated were far more likely to report being “very” concerned about the current state of the U.S. economy and the labor market, compared to 45% who were billed or refunded as expected.

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Private sector added 122K jobs in December amid signs of hiring slowdown

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Annual pay grew 4.6% year over year as private sector employers added 122,000 jobs in December, payroll giant ADP reported Wednesday.

That represents a hiring slowdown from earlier in the fourth quarter after over 180,000 jobs were added in October, and a revised total of 152,000 in November, according to ADP chief economist Nela Richardson, speaking during a conference call with reporters. 

The ADP National Employment Report found that service-providing businesses added the bulk of those jobs, 112,000. However, the professional and business services sector, which includes accounting and tax preparation, lost 5,000 jobs last month. The financial activities sector, which includes banking, added 12,000 jobs. Goods-producing businesses added 10,000 jobs, mainly in the construction sector, offset by losses in manufacturing, natural resources and mining.

Small businesses with between one and 19 employees lost 1,00 jobs, while those with between 20 and 49 employees added 6,000 jobs. Midsized businesses with between 50 and 249 employees lost 2,000 jobs, while those with between 250 and 499 employees added 11,000 jobs. Large establishments with 500 employees or more added 97,000 jobs.

Year-over-year pay growth for those who stayed in their jobs slowed to 4.6%, the slowest pace of gains since July 2021. In professional and business services, the rate was 4.5%. Pay growth for workers who changed jobs was 7.1%, a slight decline from November.

Richardson pointed to a recent pickup in job openings, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.

“The labor market is still looking to attract workers,” she said. “Layoffs are still very, very low, and so what we’re seeing again is that balance.”

Workers are largely staying with their jobs, although a separate survey from ADP also found that worker sentiment is declining. ADP produces an Employee Motivation and Commitment Index that polls 2,500 workers each month. “What we’ve seen in this sample of workers is that people’s feelings about their jobs have started to decline,” said Richardson. “Worker sentiment about their jobs peaked in June, and it has been falling steadily every single month, including December. That signals that workers may be staying put, but they’re less happy about it than they were in June.”

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Bitcoin investor ordered to reveal crypto access codes to $124M

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An early Bitcoin investor sentenced last month to two years in prison for tax fraud related to cryptocurrency sales has been ordered to disclose his secret pass codes so U.S. officials can unlock digital assets now valued at about $124 million.

Frank Richard Ahlgren III, who owes the government about $1 million in restitution from the criminal case, must hand over the pass codes and identify any devices used to store them, along with disclosing all his cryptocurrency accounts, U.S. District Judge Robert Pitman ruled Monday in federal court in Austin, Texas. 

Prosecutors had asked the judge in December to force Ahlgren to disclose the location of at least 1,287 Bitcoin he moved in 2020 through a “mixing” service that jumbled crypto tokens and made them harder to trace. Those tokens, which have more than doubled in value over the past year, are now worth more than $124 million.

Ahlgren, who lives in Austin, was the first American convicted of tax crimes tied solely to the sale of cryptoassets. He’s agreed to pay $1 million in restitution to the U.S. to cover tax losses from underreporting capital gains on the sale of $3.7 million in Bitcoin. Prosecutors said he used some of the proceeds to buy a house in Park City, Utah.

In their request, prosecutors said Ahlgren’s property “cannot be attached by ordinary physical means.” The government asked “not only to restrain any virtual currency by order of this court, but to obtain the private keys to enable it access so that it cannot be moved by others. Should the private keys be lost or destroyed, the virtual currency is irretrievable.”

The judge’s order said that Ahlgren cannot “dissipate,” transfer or sell any property without prior approval of the court, but he can spend on “normal monthly living expenses.”

Ahlgren, who pleaded guilty on Sept. 12, was sentenced on Dec. 12. His attorney, Dennis Kainen, said his client will comply with the order.

“We will comply with a court directive, or to the extent that we have a question, we will direct it to the court,” Kainen said. “We appreciate the care that Judge Pitman has taken throughout this case.”

The case is U.S. v. Ahlgren, 24-cr-00031, U.S. District Court, Western District of Texas (Austin).

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Trump calls SALT deduction-focused Republicans to Florida before tax fight

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A cohort of about 20 Republican House members from New York, New Jersey and California was invited to meet with President-elect Donald Trump at his Mar-a-Lago estate Saturday ahead of a looming fight over an extension of his 2017 tax cuts.

Much of the group is likely to attend and plans to discuss increasing the $10,000 cap on state and local tax deductions, which has disproportionately hurt voters in the three high-tax states, according to Representative Nick LaLota, who represents eastern Long Island in New York. 

Republicans in Congress are in the beginning stages of negotiating a package that will extend Trump’s 2017 tax cuts — including the future of the cap on the SALT deduction, which will otherwise expire — and address the other legislative priorities of immigration and energy production. The meeting is a positive sign for lawmakers seeking to expand the deduction, a politically divisive write-off that reduced tax bills for some residents of high-tax states.

In an interview with Bloomberg, LaLota said the group of lawmakers includes four other representatives who are banding with him to push for a “reasonable” adjustment to the cap on so-called SALT deductions. The cap was imposed as part of the 2017 bill.

“There are five very salty Republicans — I would expect that somebody in his position would appreciate that dynamic and would want to provide an accommodation to get the bill passed,” he said. “The five of us have the opportunity to effectuate an even more beautiful, big bill.”

The group, which also includes New Yorkers Andrew Garbarino and Mike Lawler, New Jersey Representative Tom Kean and California’s Young Kim, will push to expand the deduction — currently capped at $10,000 regardless of marital status — that would deliver big savings to their constituents as part of a larger tax package, said LaLota. 

While he declined to comment on what the group would consider to be an acceptable cap, last month he said that a potential plan by Trump’s economic advisors to double the tax write-off limit to $20,000 “is not reasonable.” He also told Bloomberg the removal of the so-called marriage penalty — the fact that the limit is the same for both single and married taxpayers — on its own would be insufficient for the “salty” five.

Spokespeople for Lawler, Garbarino and Kim confirmed their plans to attend the meeting with Trump, while Kean’s spokesperson didn’t respond to a request for comment. Spokespeople for Trump did not immediately respond to a request to comment.

“I’ve been very clear, and I think my colleagues will understand it, that SALT has to be included” in the bill, Lawler said in a separate interview Tuesday. “There’s already an understanding that that’s the case, so I’m not concerned.”

Because of its slim majority in the House, the GOP can only afford to lose the support of a couple congressional Republicans in order to advance the bill through a process known as budget reconciliation. The process, which would allow the GOP to pass legislation only with Republican votes, depends on near-universal agreement within its narrow majorities in the House and Senate. That puts great pressure on Trump and Republican leaders to negotiate a package that appeases both their far-right flank as well as members from the New York City-area and Southern California, for whom expanding the SALT deduction is a political priority.

“The math dictates that any small group of members can block anything that is going to be Republican,” he said. “And that math isn’t just particular to the SALT discussion, but just about anything and everything we do here in this town. That said, that President Trump is bullish on SALT and wants to provide a fix and is inviting us to Mar-a-Lago to be a part of that fix gives me great optimism.”

While it was Trump who curbed the tax break as part of his signature 2017 legislation, on the campaign trail he vowed to expand the cap. LaLota credited the change of heart to efforts by lawmakers to develop a relationship with Trump.

In addition to taxes, LaLota said that he and Lawler also plan on discussing with Trump New York City’s congestion pricing toll, which went into effect this week and charges drivers $9 for entering Manhattan’s central business district. Trump had said he opposes the fee.

LaLota said the toll especially hurts suburbanites from his and Lawler’s districts, who “should not be a piggy bank to the bloated MTA.”

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