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Powell to deliver Jackson Hole speech Friday. What Wall Street expects

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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to deliver what almost certainly will be his last keynote address at the central bank’s annual conclave during one of the most tumultuous times in its history.

What’s at stake is the near-term sentiment for financial markets, the longer-term path of the Fed’s policy trajectory, and a not insignificant dose of trying to preserve vestiges of independence at a time when the normally sacrosanct institution is facing enormous political pressure.

If Friday’s speech at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, goes at all like Powell’s first seven-plus years in office, it will feature a calm and collected veneer even if masking the weight that he and his colleagues have been under all year.

“He’s done a good job in terms of keeping the Fed’s independence, ignoring the noise and some of the questions he gets, and keeping it focused on the data dependency and the Fed’s dual mandate,” said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors. “He’s taken the high road as it relates to the Fed’s independence and some of the pressure he’s clearly getting from the Trump administration. So I think that he’ll continue to kind of walk that line.”

Indeed, President Donald Trump has kept up a near constant drumbeat against Powell and his colleagues. As he did during much of his first term, Trump has badgered Powell to lower interest rate cuts. But in recent days the president’s attacks on the Fed have gone past mere monetary policy.

Earlier this summer, the White House lashed out at the Fed for a major reconstruction project at its Washington, D.C. headquarters. That coincided with a period when Trump toyed with removing Powell, though he later backed off the idea.

Then this week the administration trained its focus on Fed Governor Lisa Cook, accusing her of mortgage fraud regarding two federally backed loans she took.

Amid the controversies, Powell could use the speech to at least take a swipe at the political distractions, even if he holds to past practice of not taking direct aim.

Politics and policy

“He’s going to take a jab and talk about fed independence, because what does he have to lose really at this point?” said Dan North, senior economist at Allianz Trade North America. “It seems pretty clear that Trump can’t legally fire him. He can certainly put all kinds of tremendous pressure on him. And I think it’s an opportunity for Powell to say the central bank’s got to stay independent, and that’s what we’re going to do.”

Beyond the politics there’s policy, and that also will be challenge.

The speech is billed as an “Economic Outlook and Framework Review,” indicating Powell will take time to provide his views on broad conditions as well as discuss the Fed’s long-term policy goals, a review that occurs every five years.

Markets are expecting Powell to tee up a September rate cut. At each of his previous Jackson Hole speeches, starting in 2018, he indicated significant policy shifts. From pushing for quarterly cuts in that first speech to a pivotal switch in how it would view inflation in 2020 to last year’s nod towards an aggressive September move, markets have taken their cues from the chair’s keynote.

Wall Street commentary reflects similar expectations this time around, if in somewhat subtler terms.

“We do not expect Powell to decisively signal a September cut, but the speech should make it clear to markets that he is likely to support one,” Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle said in a note.

Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid, whose district hosts the Jackson Hole event, told CNBC on Wednesday that he isn’t sold yet on a September cut and will need to see more data. In fact, only Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman have overtly signaled they favor a move next month.

“We suspect that most FOMC participants who have expressed mixed feelings about cutting in September will be willing to support a cut if Powell pushes for one, but that he will think it more reasonable to make that case to them closer to the meeting with more data in hand,” Mericle said.

Inflation vs. unemployment

Key points to watch will be how Powell characterizes the labor market and his view on the inflation pass-through from Trump’s tariffs.

Shortly after the July Fed meeting, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced meager job growth for July and even weaker gains for May and June. However, multiple policymakers have used the word “solid” to describe the labor market, indicating they see less urgency for rate cuts.

Minutes from the July meeting indicated most FOMC members see a greater worry over inflation. Regional presidents Beth Hammack from Cleveland, Atlanta’s Raphael Bostic and Schmid in Kansas City have expressed skepticism about the need for a September cut, a position that could rile Trump and upset the market.

Powell “is likely to remain careful and not pre-commit in advance to a September cut, which could disappoint some investors,” wrote Krishna Guha, head of global policy and central bank strategy at Evercore ISI. “Much of his speech may try to provide a steady medium- to longer-term framing for policy strategy and inflation control.”

That framing could be critical as well, and is getting little attention from Wall Street so far.

Five years ago, against a backdrop of the Covid pandemic and protests over police brutality, the Fed adopted what it called “flexible average inflation targeting.” Essentially, the framework change would allow the Fed to let inflation run hot if unemployment was higher, particularly for underrepresented groups.

Over the next couple years, the Fed stood pat while inflation hit its highest level in more than 40 years. While most officials say the inflation targeting change did not play a role in the widely-held view that inflation was “transitory,” the policy is likely to get a retooling, with the Fed returning to its previous inflation stance that included preemptive action if inflation appeared to be rising.

“While the adoption of the new framework in 2020 was not the primary factor behind the Fed’s delay and the substantial inflation overshoot, it contributed to this outcome,” Matthew Luzzetti, Deutsche Bank chief U.S. economist, said in a note. “For this reason, we expect Powell’s speech in Jackson Hole to highlight changes to the Fed’s statement on longer-run goals that will reflect this reality. Specifically, we expect the speech to call for rolling back the 2020 modifications and restoring a primary role for preemption.”

Luzzetti added that the Friday speech “could arguably not come at a more important time” and he expects Powell to change his tone on the labor market.

Powell’s speech will be presented at 10 a.m. ET. The conference wraps up Saturday.

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Why software stocks, 2026’s market dogs, have joined the rally

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ETF shelters from the Middle East War

Cybersecurity and enterprise software stocks have been market dogs in 2026, with fears that AI will wipe out a wide range of companies in the enterprise space dominating the narrative. But they snapped a brutal losing streak this past week, joining in the broader market rally that saw all losses from the U.S.-Iran war regained by the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500.

Cybersecurity has been “a victim of some of the AI-related headlines,” Christian Magoon, Amplify ETFs CEO, said on this week’s “ETF Edge.”

It wasn’t just niche cybersecurity names. Take Microsoft, for example, which was recently down close to 20% for the year. Its shares surged last week by 13%.

A big driver of the pummeling in software stocks was a rotation within tech by investors to AI infrastructure and semiconductors and some other names in large-cap tech, Magoon said, and since cybersecurity stocks and ETFs are heavily weighted towards software companies, they were left behind even as those businesses continue to grow on a fundamental basis.

But Wall Street now has become more bullish with the stocks at lower levels. Brent Thill, Jefferies tech analyst, said last week that the worst may be over for software stocks. “I think that this concept that software is dead, and then Anthropic and OpenAI are going to kill the entire industry, is just over-exaggerated,” he said on CNBC’s “Money Movers” on Wednesday.

Big Short” investor Michael Burry wrote in a Substack post on Wednesday that he is becoming bullish about software stocks after the recent selloff. “Software stocks remain interesting because of accelerated extreme declines last week arising from a reflexive positive feedback loop between falling software stocks and changes in the market for their bank debt,” he wrote.

The Global X Cybersecurity ETF (BUG), is down about 12% since the beginning of the year, with top holdings including Palo Alto Networks, Fortinet, Akamai Technologies and CrowdStrike. But BUG was up 12% last week. The First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR) is down 6% for the year, but up 9% in the past week.

Piper Sandler analyst Rob Owens reiterated an “overweight” rating on Palo Alto Networks which helped the stock pop 7% — it is now down roughly 6% on the year. Its peers saw similar moves, including CrowdStrike.

Stock Chart IconStock chart icon

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Performance of Global X cybersecurity ETF versus S&P 500 over past one-year period.

Magoon said expectations may have become too high in cybersecurity, and with a crowding effect among investors, solid results were not enough to to push stocks higher. But the down-and-then-back-up 2026 for the sector is also a reminder that when stocks fall sharply in a short period of time, opportunity may knock.

“Once you’re down over 10% in some of these subsectors, you start to see the contrarians start to say, ‘well, maybe I’ll take a look at this,'” Magoon said.

He said AI does add both opportunity and uncertainty to the cybersecurity equation, increasing demand but also introducing new competition. But he added, “I think the dip is good to buy in an AI-driven world,” specifically because the risks to companies may lead to more M&A in cyber names that benefits the stocks.

For now, investors may look for opportunity on the margins rather than rush back into beaten-up tech names. “I think investors are still going to remain underweight software,” Thill said.

But Magoon advises investors to at least take the reminder to keep an eye on niches in the market during pronounced downturns. “The best-performing are often the least bought and do the best over the next 12 months versus late-in-the-game piling on,” he said.

While that may have been a mindset that worked against the last investors into cybersecurity and enterprise software in mid-2025 when the negative sentiment started building, at least for now, it’s started working for the stocks in the sector again.

Meanwhile, this year’s biggest winner is also a good example of what can be an extended trade in either a bullish or bearish direction. Last year, institutional ownership of energy was at multi-year lows, Magoon said, referencing Bank of America data. “Reverse sentiment can be a great indicator,” he said. 

But he cautioned that any selective buying of stocks that have dipped does have to contend with the risk that there is a potentially bigger drawdown in the market yet to come in 2026. That is because midterm election years historically have been marked by large drawdowns. “If you think it is bad right now, it could get a lot worse,” Magoon said. But he added that there’s a silver-lining in that data, too, for the patient investor. The market has posted very strong 12-month returns after midterm election drawdowns end. So, for investors with a longer-term time horizon and no need for short-term liquidity, Magoon said, “stick in there.” 

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Violent downturns could test new ETF strategies, warns MFS Investment

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ETF Stress Tests: How funds are showing resilience in the face of uncertainty

New innovation in the exchange-traded fund industry could come at a cost to investors during extreme conditions.

According to MFS Investment Management’s Jamie Harrison, ETFs involved in increasingly complex derivatives and less transparent markets may be in uncharted territory when it comes to violent downturns.

“Those would be something that you’d want to keep an eye on as volatility ramps up,” the firm’s head of ETF capital markets told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week. “As innovation continues to increase at a rapid pace within the ETF wrapper, [it’s] definitely something that we advise our clients to be really front-footed about… Lack of transparency could absolutely be an issue if we’re going to start seeing some deep sell-offs.”

His firm has been around since 1924 and is known for inventing the open-end mutual fund. Last year, ETF.com named MFS Investment Management as the best new ETF issuer.

“It’s important to do due diligence on the portfolio,” he said. “Having a firm that has deep partnerships, deep bench of subject matter experts that plays with the A-team in terms of the Street and liquidity providers available [are] super important.”

Liquidity as the real issue?

Harrison suggested the real issue is liquidity, particularly during a steep sell-off.

“We’ve all seen the news and the headlines around potential private credit ETFs. That picture becomes much more murky,” he added. “It’s up to advisors, to investors [and] to clients to really dig in and look under the hood and engage with their issuers.”

He noted investors will have to ask some tough questions.

“What does this look like in a 20% drawdown? How does this liquidity facility work? Am I going to be able to get in? Am I going to be able to get out? And if I’m able to get out, am I able to get out at a price that’s tight to NAV [net asset value], and what’s the infrastructure at your shop in terms of managing that consideration for me,” said Harrison.

Amplify ETFs’ Christian Magoon is also concerned about these newer ETF strategies could weather a monster drawdown. He listed private credit as a red flag.

“If your ETF owns private credit, I think it’s worth taking a look at, kind of what the standards are around liquidity and how that ETF is trading, because that should be a bit of a mismatch between the trading pace of ETFs and the underlying asset,” the firm’s CEO said in the same interview.

Magoon also highlighted potential issues surrounding equity-linked notes. The notes provide fixed income security while offering potentially higher returns linked to stocks or equity indexes.

“Those could potentially be in stress due to redemptions and the underlying credit risk. That’s another kind of unique derivative,” Magoon said. “I would very closely look at any ETF that has equity-linked notes should we get into a major drawdown or there be a contagion in private credit or something related to the banking system.”

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Anthropic Mythos reveals ‘more vulnerabilities’ for cyberattacks

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Jamie Dimon, chief executive officer of JPMorgan Chase & Co., right, departs the US Capitol in Washington, DC, US, on Wednesday, Feb. 25, 2026.

Graeme Sloan | Bloomberg | Getty Images

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Tuesday that while artificial intelligence tools could eventually help companies defend themselves from cyberattacks, they are first making them more vulnerable.

Dimon said that JPMorgan was testing Anthropic’s latest model — the Mythos preview announced by the AI firm last week — as part of its broader effort to reap the benefits of AI while protecting against bad actors wielding the same technology.

“AI’s made it worse, it’s made it harder,” Dimon told analysts on the bank’s earnings call Tuesday morning. “It does create additional vulnerabilities, and maybe down the road, better ways to strengthen yourself too.”

When asked by a reporter about Mythos, Dimon seemed to refer to Anthropic’s warning that the model had already found thousands of vulnerabilities in corporate software.

“I think you read exactly what is it,” Dimon said. “It shows a lot more vulnerabilities need to be fixed.”

The remarks reveal how artificial intelligence, a technology welcomed by corporations as a productivity boon, has also morphed into a serious threat by giving bad actors new ways to hack into technology systems. Last week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent summoned bank CEOs to a meeting to discuss the risks posed by Mythos.

JPMorgan, the world’s largest bank by market cap, has for years invested heavily to stay ahead of threats, with dedicated teams and constant coordination with government agencies, Dimon said.

“We spend a lot of money. We’ve got top experts. We’re in constant contact with the government,” he said. “It’s a full-time job, and we’re doing it all the time.”

‘Attack mode’

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