Finance
Investors to scrutinize fintech’s digital bank pivot
Published
8 months agoon
As Klarna gears up for its highly-anticipated initial public offering, investors will be closely scrutinizing the fintech firm’s bid to rebrand itself as an all-encompassing digital bank. The Swedish payments group has become synonymous with the buy now, pay later (BNPL) model, which allows people to split purchases into interest-free installments. However, in recent months Klarna has attempted to convince the market that it’s not a one-trick pony, and that it should be considered as more of a digital retail bank rather than a simple BNPL firm. “We want Americans to start to associate us with not only buy now, pay later, but [with] the PayPal wallet type of experience that we have,” Klarna CEO Sebastian Siemiatkowski told CNBC’s ” The Exchange ” in May. “We are basically a neobank to a large degree, but people associate us still strongly with buy now, pay later.” Can it convince investors? Last week, Klarna announced it expects shares in its long-awaited IPO to be priced between $35 and $37 each, which would value it at up to $14 billion, according to CNBC calculations. That’s down from the eye-watering $45.6 billion Klarna was valued at in a 2021 funding round led by SoftBank . However, it’s still an improvement on the $6.7 billion valuation the company slumped to in a so-called “down round” the following year. A key question for the company going forward will be whether investors can be convinced by its “neobank” pivot. In international markets like the U.S. and U.K., Klarna is still primarily known for its short-term, 0% interest financing products. However, in the European Union, Klarna has held a banking license with Sweden’s financial regulator since 2017 and offers personal bank accounts in Germany . It has also recently begun rolling out more banking products , such as deposit-taking accounts and debit cards, across the U.S. and Europe . “The IPO will definitely be an indicator of how broadly investors buy the shift in Klarna’s business model,” Samuel Kerr, global head of equity capital markets at Mergermarket, told CNBC via email. Recent floats from the likes of Figma , Circle and Bullish have demonstrated appetite for major tech listings is finally returning after a largely muted IPO market over the last three years. “As we saw with Figma’s IPO the publication of an S-1 can be the first time many investors get to go through a company’s numbers in real detail. This can be a positive as we saw in the surge of demand for Figma,” Kerr said. “It can also work as a negative however and given the losses outlined in Klarna’s filings investors will be putting its financials under real scrutiny. That scrutiny and Klarna’s answers on its evolution and growth could be the determiner of IPO success,” he added. Klarna disclosed a net loss of $53 million in the second quarter, nearly tripling from the $18 million it lost in the same period a year go. Still, revenues climbed 20% year-over-year to $823 million. However, Joakim Dal, a partner at long-time Klarna investor GP Bullhound, says the company should be valued more like a payments business challenging the dominance of firms such as Visa and Mastercard . “We see this as a business that eventually will turn over $10 billion dollars,” Dal told CNBC. “In the long run, I see this company running on 20% earnings before tax margins.” “If you just apply those sort of metrics with a $10 billion-plus revenue and those type of long-term margins, I think you could definitely see this company trading about $50 billion” or more by 2030, he added. How to value Klarna The difficulty with valuing Klarna is that 2025 is a very different time compared with the heyday of low-fee fintech services. Investors are arguably more wary of products offering short-term plans with 0% interest in an environment where interest rates remain elevated compared to where they were four or five years ago. Nevertheless, Klarna touts its model as one that is attractive both for consumers and retailers. The company makes much of its income from fees it charges merchants for offering its payment method, as well interest on longer-term financing products and late fees. Klarna has also talked up an expansion into advertising in recent years, though this remains a much smaller business compared with other revenue streams. The company made $2.81 billion of annual revenue last year, and is on track to top that amount this year. One way of getting a sense for how Klarna should be valued is comparing it to its publicly-traded peers. Affirm went public on the Nasdaq in 2021 and — like Klarna — took a battering in 2022 as worsening macroeconomic conditions resulting from the Russia-Ukraine war hammered tech stocks. Today, Affirm has a market capitalization of over $29 billion, putting it far ahead of Klarna. The Swedish fintech is likely being priced in comparison to Affirm because it has similar revenues, according to Simon Taylor, an advisor at fintech firm Sardine.ai. Unlike Klarna, though, Affirm is profitable on a quarterly basis, posting net income of $69.2 million or 20 cents a share in the second quarter. “They’re a case study in grinding out better unit economics as they scale,” Taylor said, referring to Affirm. “Klarna isn’t that far behind,” he noted, adding, “I’d wager their bankers are probably hoping this pops by 2x on IPO day.” That would match up to how some other blockbuster fintech listings have performed on the first day of trading. Circle spiked 168% on the day of its IPO, while Bullish surged 83%. Chime , which would be more comparable to Klarna as a rival neobank, closed 37% higher on IPO day. However, Kerr warned it would be unwise to base IPO performance expectations for Klarna on other fintech listings that have happened this year. “I think it’s very hard to draw too much of a parallel between broader fintech listings,” he said. “I think the market is starting to look less at this as a homogonous industry and more about the idiosyncratic qualities of each business attempting to IPO.” In Circle’s case, he said, investors were appraising the company as a beneficiary of so-called stablecoins and a movement to digitize the U.S. dollar. “There is clearly a desire from investors to buy into the new ‘megatrends’ of AI and cryptocurrency, but outside of this investor demand for public market debutants has been very case-by-case,” Kerr said.
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Finance
Why software stocks, 2026’s market dogs, have joined the rally
Published
2 weeks agoon
April 19, 2026

Cybersecurity and enterprise software stocks have been market dogs in 2026, with fears that AI will wipe out a wide range of companies in the enterprise space dominating the narrative. But they snapped a brutal losing streak this past week, joining in the broader market rally that saw all losses from the U.S.-Iran war regained by the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500.
Cybersecurity has been “a victim of some of the AI-related headlines,” Christian Magoon, Amplify ETFs CEO, said on this week’s “ETF Edge.”
It wasn’t just niche cybersecurity names. Take Microsoft, for example, which was recently down close to 20% for the year. Its shares surged last week by 13%.
A big driver of the pummeling in software stocks was a rotation within tech by investors to AI infrastructure and semiconductors and some other names in large-cap tech, Magoon said, and since cybersecurity stocks and ETFs are heavily weighted towards software companies, they were left behind even as those businesses continue to grow on a fundamental basis.
But Wall Street now has become more bullish with the stocks at lower levels. Brent Thill, Jefferies tech analyst, said last week that the worst may be over for software stocks. “I think that this concept that software is dead, and then Anthropic and OpenAI are going to kill the entire industry, is just over-exaggerated,” he said on CNBC’s “Money Movers” on Wednesday.
“Big Short” investor Michael Burry wrote in a Substack post on Wednesday that he is becoming bullish about software stocks after the recent selloff. “Software stocks remain interesting because of accelerated extreme declines last week arising from a reflexive positive feedback loop between falling software stocks and changes in the market for their bank debt,” he wrote.
The Global X Cybersecurity ETF (BUG), is down about 12% since the beginning of the year, with top holdings including Palo Alto Networks, Fortinet, Akamai Technologies and CrowdStrike. But BUG was up 12% last week. The First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR) is down 6% for the year, but up 9% in the past week.
Piper Sandler analyst Rob Owens reiterated an “overweight” rating on Palo Alto Networks which helped the stock pop 7% — it is now down roughly 6% on the year. Its peers saw similar moves, including CrowdStrike.
Performance of Global X cybersecurity ETF versus S&P 500 over past one-year period.
Magoon said expectations may have become too high in cybersecurity, and with a crowding effect among investors, solid results were not enough to to push stocks higher. But the down-and-then-back-up 2026 for the sector is also a reminder that when stocks fall sharply in a short period of time, opportunity may knock.
“Once you’re down over 10% in some of these subsectors, you start to see the contrarians start to say, ‘well, maybe I’ll take a look at this,'” Magoon said.
He said AI does add both opportunity and uncertainty to the cybersecurity equation, increasing demand but also introducing new competition. But he added, “I think the dip is good to buy in an AI-driven world,” specifically because the risks to companies may lead to more M&A in cyber names that benefits the stocks.
For now, investors may look for opportunity on the margins rather than rush back into beaten-up tech names. “I think investors are still going to remain underweight software,” Thill said.
But Magoon advises investors to at least take the reminder to keep an eye on niches in the market during pronounced downturns. “The best-performing are often the least bought and do the best over the next 12 months versus late-in-the-game piling on,” he said.
While that may have been a mindset that worked against the last investors into cybersecurity and enterprise software in mid-2025 when the negative sentiment started building, at least for now, it’s started working for the stocks in the sector again.
Meanwhile, this year’s biggest winner is also a good example of what can be an extended trade in either a bullish or bearish direction. Last year, institutional ownership of energy was at multi-year lows, Magoon said, referencing Bank of America data. “Reverse sentiment can be a great indicator,” he said.
But he cautioned that any selective buying of stocks that have dipped does have to contend with the risk that there is a potentially bigger drawdown in the market yet to come in 2026. That is because midterm election years historically have been marked by large drawdowns. “If you think it is bad right now, it could get a lot worse,” Magoon said. But he added that there’s a silver-lining in that data, too, for the patient investor. The market has posted very strong 12-month returns after midterm election drawdowns end. So, for investors with a longer-term time horizon and no need for short-term liquidity, Magoon said, “stick in there.”
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Finance
Violent downturns could test new ETF strategies, warns MFS Investment
Published
2 weeks agoon
April 17, 2026

New innovation in the exchange-traded fund industry could come at a cost to investors during extreme conditions.
According to MFS Investment Management’s Jamie Harrison, ETFs involved in increasingly complex derivatives and less transparent markets may be in uncharted territory when it comes to violent downturns.
“Those would be something that you’d want to keep an eye on as volatility ramps up,” the firm’s head of ETF capital markets told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week. “As innovation continues to increase at a rapid pace within the ETF wrapper, [it’s] definitely something that we advise our clients to be really front-footed about… Lack of transparency could absolutely be an issue if we’re going to start seeing some deep sell-offs.”
His firm has been around since 1924 and is known for inventing the open-end mutual fund. Last year, ETF.com named MFS Investment Management as the best new ETF issuer.
“It’s important to do due diligence on the portfolio,” he said. “Having a firm that has deep partnerships, deep bench of subject matter experts that plays with the A-team in terms of the Street and liquidity providers available [are] super important.”
Liquidity as the real issue?
Harrison suggested the real issue is liquidity, particularly during a steep sell-off.
“We’ve all seen the news and the headlines around potential private credit ETFs. That picture becomes much more murky,” he added. “It’s up to advisors, to investors [and] to clients to really dig in and look under the hood and engage with their issuers.”
He noted investors will have to ask some tough questions.
“What does this look like in a 20% drawdown? How does this liquidity facility work? Am I going to be able to get in? Am I going to be able to get out? And if I’m able to get out, am I able to get out at a price that’s tight to NAV [net asset value], and what’s the infrastructure at your shop in terms of managing that consideration for me,” said Harrison.
Amplify ETFs’ Christian Magoon is also concerned about these newer ETF strategies could weather a monster drawdown. He listed private credit as a red flag.
“If your ETF owns private credit, I think it’s worth taking a look at, kind of what the standards are around liquidity and how that ETF is trading, because that should be a bit of a mismatch between the trading pace of ETFs and the underlying asset,” the firm’s CEO said in the same interview.
Magoon also highlighted potential issues surrounding equity-linked notes. The notes provide fixed income security while offering potentially higher returns linked to stocks or equity indexes.
“Those could potentially be in stress due to redemptions and the underlying credit risk. That’s another kind of unique derivative,” Magoon said. “I would very closely look at any ETF that has equity-linked notes should we get into a major drawdown or there be a contagion in private credit or something related to the banking system.”
Finance
Anthropic Mythos reveals ‘more vulnerabilities’ for cyberattacks
Published
3 weeks agoon
April 15, 2026
Jamie Dimon, chief executive officer of JPMorgan Chase & Co., right, departs the US Capitol in Washington, DC, US, on Wednesday, Feb. 25, 2026.
Graeme Sloan | Bloomberg | Getty Images
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Tuesday that while artificial intelligence tools could eventually help companies defend themselves from cyberattacks, they are first making them more vulnerable.
Dimon said that JPMorgan was testing Anthropic’s latest model — the Mythos preview announced by the AI firm last week — as part of its broader effort to reap the benefits of AI while protecting against bad actors wielding the same technology.
“AI’s made it worse, it’s made it harder,” Dimon told analysts on the bank’s earnings call Tuesday morning. “It does create additional vulnerabilities, and maybe down the road, better ways to strengthen yourself too.”
When asked by a reporter about Mythos, Dimon seemed to refer to Anthropic’s warning that the model had already found thousands of vulnerabilities in corporate software.
“I think you read exactly what is it,” Dimon said. “It shows a lot more vulnerabilities need to be fixed.”
The remarks reveal how artificial intelligence, a technology welcomed by corporations as a productivity boon, has also morphed into a serious threat by giving bad actors new ways to hack into technology systems. Last week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent summoned bank CEOs to a meeting to discuss the risks posed by Mythos.
JPMorgan, the world’s largest bank by market cap, has for years invested heavily to stay ahead of threats, with dedicated teams and constant coordination with government agencies, Dimon said.
“We spend a lot of money. We’ve got top experts. We’re in constant contact with the government,” he said. “It’s a full-time job, and we’re doing it all the time.”
‘Attack mode’
Still, the CEO warned that risks extend beyond any single institution, given the interconnected nature of the financial system.
“That doesn’t mean everything that banks rely on is that well protected,” Dimon said. “Banks… are attached to exchanges and all these other things that create other layers of risk.”
JPMorgan Chief Financial Officer Jeremy Barnum said the industry has long been aware that AI cuts both ways in cybersecurity.
“These tools can make it easier to find vulnerabilities, but then also potentially be deployed by bad actors in attack mode,” Barnum said on the earnings call. Recent advances from Anthropic and others have simply intensified an existing trend, he said.
Dimon also said that while advanced AI tools are important, old-school cybersecurity practices remain essential.
“A lot of it is hygiene… how do you protect your data? How do you protect your networks, your routers, your hardware, changing your passcode?” he said. “Doing all those things right dramatically reduces the risk.”
Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon said Monday during an earnings call that his bank was testing Mythos, though he declined to comment further.
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