Finance

This is where the 10-year yield is a ‘clear problem’ for stocks, Goldman says

Published

1 year ago

April 30, 2024

Business Finance News

Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., April 29, 2024.

Brendan Mcdermid | Reuters

The volatility in the bond market has had equity investors on their toes for months, but at what point will rising yields spoil stocks’ 2024 rally?

The answer is 5% on the 10-year Treasury yield, according to Goldman Sachs. In a new 19-page paper using market data since the 1980s, the Wall Street firm said when that threshold is reached, the correlation between bond yields and stocks turns negative.

“While there is no ‘magic number’, historically bond yields at around 5% is when higher yields become a clear problem for equities — that is the point where the correlation with bond yields is no longer decisively positive,” wrote a team of Goldman strategists led by Peter Oppenheimer, chief global equity strategist.

The benchmark 10-year yield jumped 5 basis points Tuesday to 4.67% after data showed employee compensation costs jumped more than expected to start the year. It marked yet another danger sign about persistent inflation, which the market thinks will keep the Federal Reserve on hold until later this year before it starts to consider cutting rates.

Goldman said investors are currently in the “optimism phase” of the cycle, where confidence — and complacency — grow, pushing valuations higher.

“Equity valuations are higher and the cycle is more mature so equity markets are very sensitive to moves in bond yields,” Goldman said. “They underperform with yields moving higher around news of overheating and higher inflation, while they outperform when the market prices Central Banks to cut interest rates.”

The 10-year Treasury yield, a key barometer for mortgage rates, auto loans and credit cards, has risen almost 80 basis points this year as the market adjusts to a higher-for-longer rate regime. The current rate on the Federal Reserve’s fed funds for overnight lending is 5.25%-5.50%.

After starting the year forecasting at least six reductions in interest rates, the market is now pricing in a 75% chance of just one rate cut, according to the CME Group’s widely followed FedWatch tracker that derives its probabilities from where 30-day fed funds futures are trading. The central bank’s rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee began its two-day meeting Tuesday.

Warren Buffett has long stressed the impact of interest rates on all investments, saying higher rates exert a huge gravitational pull on asset values, lowering the present value of any future earnings.

Rising yields dent the appeal of risk assets as shorter-dated Treasury bills and longer-dated Treasury notes offer solid yields and a risk-free alternative to stocks.

— CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed reporting.

Finance

Chase CEO Jamie Dimon says markets are too complacent

Published

10 hours ago

May 19, 2025

Business Finance News

Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, leaves the U.S. Capitol after a meeting with Republican members of the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee on the issue of de-banking on Feb. 13, 2025.

Tom Williams | Cq-roll Call, Inc. | Getty Images

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Monday that markets and central bankers underappreciate the risks created by record U.S. deficits, tariffs and international tensions.

Dimon, the veteran CEO and chairman of the biggest U.S. bank by assets, explained his worldview during his bank’s annual investor day meeting in New York. He said he believes the risks of higher inflation and even stagflation aren’t properly represented by stock market values, which have staged a comeback from lows in April.

“We have huge deficits; we have what I consider almost complacent central banks,” Dimon said. “You all think they can manage all this. I don’t think” they can, he said.

“My own view is people feel pretty good because you haven’t seen effective tariffs” yet, Dimon said. “The market came down 10%, [it’s] back up 10%; that’s an extraordinary amount of complacency.”

Dimon’s comments follow Moody’s rating agency downgrading the U.S. credit rating on Friday over concerns about the government’s growing debt burden. Markets have been whipsawed the past few months over worries that President Donald Trump‘s trade policies will raise inflation and slow the world’s largest economy.

Dimon said Monday that he believed Wall Street earnings estimates for S&P 500 companies, which have already declined in the first weeks of Trump’s trade policies, will fall further as companies pull or lower guidance amid the uncertainty.

In six months, those projections will fall to 0% earnings growth after starting the year at around 12%, Dimon said. If that were to happen, stocks prices will likely fall.

“I think earnings estimates will come down, which means PE will come down,” Dimon said, referring to the “price to earnings” ratio tracked closely by stock market analysts.

The odds of stagflation, “which is basically a recession with inflation,” are roughly double what the market thinks, Dimon added.

Separately, one of Dimon’s top deputies said that corporate clients are still in “wait-and-see” mode when it comes to acquisitions and other deals.

Investment banking revenue is headed for a “mid-teens” percentage decline in the second quarter compared with the year-earlier period, while trading revenue was trending higher by a “mid-to-high” single digit percentage, said Troy Rohrbaugh, a co-head of the firm’s commercial and investment bank.

On the ever-present question of Dimon’s timeline to hand over the CEO reins to one of his deputies, Dimon said that nothing changed from his guidance last year, when he said he would likely remain for less than five more years.

“If I’m here for four more years, and maybe two more” as executive chairman, Dimon said, “that’s a long time.”

Of all the executive presentations given Monday, consumer banking chief Marianne Lake had the longest speaking time at a full hour. She is considered a top successor candidate, especially after Chief Operating Officer Jennifer Piepszak said she would not be seeking the top job.

Finance

Stocks making the biggest moves midday: UNH, TSLA, BABA

Published

12 hours ago

May 19, 2025

Business Finance News

Finance

Klarna doubles losses in first quarter as IPO remains on hold

Published

16 hours ago

May 19, 2025

Business Finance News

Sebastian Siemiatkowski, CEO of Klarna, speaking at a fintech event in London on Monday, April 4, 2022.

Chris Ratcliffe | Bloomberg via Getty Images

Klarna saw its losses jump in the first quarter as the popular buy now, pay later firm applies the brakes on a hotly anticipated U.S. initial public offering.

The Swedish payments startup said its net loss for the first three months of 2025 totaled $99 million — significantly worse than the $47 million loss it reported a year ago. Klarna said this was due to several one-off costs related to depreciation, share-based payments and restructuring.

Revenues at the firm increased 13% year-over-year to $701 million. Klarna said it now has 100 million active users and 724,00 merchant partners globally.

It comes as Klarna remains in pause mode regarding a highly anticipated U.S. IPO that was at one stage set to value the SoftBank-backed company at over $15 billion.

Klarna put its IPO plans on hold last month due to market turbulence caused by President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff plans. Online ticketing platform StubHub also put its IPO plans on ice.

Prior to the IPO delay, Klarna had been on a marketing blitz touting itself as an artificial intelligence-powered fintech. The company partnered up with ChatGPT maker OpenAI in 2023. A year later, Klarna used OpenAI technology to create an AI customer service assistant.

Last week, Klarna CEO Sebastian Siemiatkowski said the company was able to shrink its headcount by about 40%, in part due to investments in AI.