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How to tell if your housing market is buyer friendly

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Affordability remain stretched in housing market but inventories are rising, says Ivy Zelman

Even as home prices hit new highs, experts say there are signs that the housing market is becoming better for buyers in some locations.

The median cost of an existing, single-family home in the U.S. was $426,900 in June, a new all-time high, according to the National Association of Realtors. About 3.89 million homes were sold in June, a 5.4% decrease from May, NAR found.

While mortgage rates have declined from their May peak, borrowing costs remain expensive for buyers. The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage in the U.S. nudged up to 6.78% from 6.77% on Thursday, according to Freddie Mac data via the Federal Reserve.

Despite those headwinds, some indicators show the housing market is shifting away from a seller’s market.

That doesn’t mean it’s a buyer’s market yet: “The term buyer’s market is always a bit tricky to work with,” said Chen Zhao, the economic research lead at Redfin, an online real estate brokerage firm. There are “rules of thumb” to define a buyer’s market, like having more than four months of supply, she said.

“The market is certainly tilting more towards buyers, I would say maybe it’s coming more into balance,” said Zhao. “Things are better, but they’re not great yet.”

Orphe Divounguy, a senior economist at Zillow, agreed.

“We’re still nationwide somewhat in a seller’s market, not a buyer’s market yet,” he said. “However there’s good news for buyers on the horizon.”

4 signs of ‘a more neutral market’

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In some areas, homebuyers are backing out of a home purchase after making it as far as closing.

About 56,000 home-purchase agreements were canceled in June, Redfin found. Some of those abandoned deals may stem from buyers rethinking their budget and needs.

“Buyers are getting more and more selective,” Julie Zubiate, a Redfin Premier real estate agent in the San Francisco Bay Area, wrote in the Redfin report. “They’re backing to due to minor issues because the monthly costs associated with buying a home today are just too high to rationalize not getting everything on their must-have list.” 

“You really don’t think about insurance and taxes,” said Selma Hepp, chief economist at CoreLogic. “Then you get the first estimate from a lender and then you decide to back out.”

3. Sellers have more competition

In other cases, buyers might be getting pickier as more listings pop up in their area.

Total housing inventory registered at the end of June was 1.32 million units, up 3.1% from May and 23.4% from a year ago. Unsold inventory is at a 4.1-month supply, up from 3.7 months in May and 3.1 months a year ago, according to NAR.

Competition is easing fastest in the South, where all major southern markets except Dallas and Raleigh are either neutral or buyer-friendly, according to the June 2024 Zillow Housing Market Report.

“With more inventory, that does certainly mean that buyers have more options,” said Hepp, “but that is very regional. And the ones with the most increases in inventories, they’re struggling with other issues.”

4. Sellers are cutting prices

For a few years, home sellers have had the advantage of selling their homes for more than they bought it because valuations have skyrocketed, compounded with the fact that homes have been in low supply for so long.

“Sellers are having to do a little bit more to entice buyers,” said Divounguy. “We see one in four sellers are cutting their prices — the most for any June in the last six years — to try to sway buyers.”

About one in five, or 19.8%, of homes for sale in June had a price cut, the highest level of any June on record, according to Redfin. That’s up from 14.4% from a year ago.

Home builders are also trying to attract buyers: About 31% of builders cut prices to increase home sales, up from 29% in June and 25% in May, according to a July 2024 survey by the National Association of Home Builders.

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Nearly 2 in 5 cardholders have maxed out a credit card or come close

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Between higher prices and high interest rates, some Americans have had a hard time keeping up.

As a result, many are using more of their available credit and now, nearly 2 in 5 credit cardholders — 37% — have maxed out or come close to maxing out a credit card since the Federal Reserve began raising rates in March 2022, according to a new report by Bankrate.

Most borrowers who are over extended blame rising prices and a higher cost of living, Bankrate found.

Other reasons cardholders blame for maxing out a credit card or coming close include a job or income loss, an emergency expense, medical costs and too much discretionary spending.

“With limited options to absorb those higher costs, many low-income Americans have had no choice but to take on debt to afford costlier essentials — at a time when credit card rates are near record highs,” Sarah Foster, an analyst at Bankrate, said in a statement.

As prices crept higher, so did credit card balances.

The average balance per consumer now stands at $6,329, up 4.8% year over year, according to the latest credit industry insights report from TransUnion.

At the same time, the average credit card charges more than 20% interest — near an all-time high — and half of cardholders carry debt from month to month, according to another report by Bankrate.  

Carrying a higher balance has a direct impact on your utilization rate, the ratio of debt to total credit, and is one of the factors that can influence your credit score. Higher credit score borrowers typically have both higher limits and lower utilization rates.

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Credit experts generally advise borrowers to keep revolving debt below 30% of their available credit to limit the effect that high balances can have.

As of August, the aggregate credit card utilization rate was more than 21%, according to Bankrate’s analysis of Equifax data.

Still, “if you have five credit cards [with utilization rates around] 20%, you have a lot of debt out there,” said Howard Dvorkin, a certified public accountant and the chairman of Debt.com. “People are living a life that they can’t afford right now, and they are putting the balance on credit cards.”

Generation X at risk

Gen X most likely to max out their credit cards, survey finds

Potential problems ahead

Cardholders who have maxed out or come close to maxing out their credit cards are also more likely to become delinquent.

Credit card delinquency rates are already higher across the board, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and TransUnion both reported.

“Consumers have been measured in taking on additional revolving debt despite the inflationary environment over the past few years, although there has been an uptick in delinquencies in recent months,” said Tom McGee, CEO of the International Council of Shopping Centers.

A debt is considered delinquent when a borrower misses a full billing cycle without making a payment, or what’s considered 30 days past due. That can damage your credit score and impact the interest rate you’ll pay for credit cards, car loans and mortgages — or whether you’ll get a loan at all.

Some of the best ways to improve your credit standing come down to paying your bills on time every month, and in full, if possible, Dvorkin said. “Understand that if you don’t, then whatever you buy, over time, will end up costing you double.”

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Why 401(k) plans are the ‘final frontier’ for exchange-traded funds

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While many investors have flocked to exchange-traded funds, they haven’t gained much ground with 401(k) plan participants.

Exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, debuted in the early 1990s and have since captured about $10 trillion.

Mutual funds hold about $20 trillion, but ETFs have chipped away at their dominance: ETFs hold a 32% market share versus mutual fund assets, up from 14% a decade ago, according to Morningstar Direct data.

“ETFs are becoming the novel structure to be used in wealth-management-type accounts,” said David Blanchett, head of retirement research at PGIM, Prudential’s investment management arm.

However, that same zeal hasn’t been true for investors in workplace retirement plans, a huge pot of largely untapped potential for the ETF industry.

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At the end of 2023, 401(k) plans held $7.4 trillion, according to the Investment Company Institute, or ICI, and had more than 70 million participants. Other 401(k)-type plans, such as those for workers in universities and local government, held an additional $3 trillion, ICI data shows.

But hardly any of those assets are in ETFs, experts said.

“There’s a lot of money [in workplace plans], and there’s going to be more,” said Philip Chao, a certified financial planner who consults with companies about their retirement plans.

“It’s the final frontier [for ETFs], in the sense of trying to capture the next big pool of money,” said Chao, the founder of Experiential Wealth, based in Cabin John, Maryland.

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About 65% of 401(k) assets were invested in mutual funds at the end of 2023, according to ICI data. The group doesn’t report a corresponding statistic for ETFs.

A separate report from the Plan Sponsor Council of America, a trade group representing employers, suggests ETFs hold just a tiny fraction of the remaining share of 401(k) assets.

The PSCA report examines the relative popularity of investment structures, such as mutual funds and ETFs, across about 20 types of investment classes, from stock funds to bond and real estate funds, in 2022. The report found that 401(k) plans used ETFs most readily for sector and commodity funds — but even then, they did so just 3% of the time.

Key benefits are ‘irrelevant’

Mutual funds, collective investment trust funds and separately managed accounts held the lion’s share of the 401(k) assets across all investment categories, PSCA data shows.

Such investment vehicles perform the same basic function: They’re legal structures that pool investor money together.

However, there are some differences.

For example, ETFs have certain perks for investors relative to mutual funds, such as tax benefits and the ability to do intraday trading, experts said.

However, those benefits are “irrelevant” in 401(k) plans, Blanchett said.

The tax code already gives 401(k) accounts a preferential tax treatment, making an ETF advantage relative to capital gains tax a moot point, he said.

Blanchett said 401(k) plans are also long-term accounts in which frequent trading is generally not encouraged. Just 11% of 401(k) investors made a trade or exchange in their account in 2023, according to Vanguard data.

Additionally, in workplace retirement plans, there’s a decision-making layer between funds and investors: the employer.

Company officials choose what investment funds to offer their 401(k) participants — meaning investors who want ETFs may not have them available.

There may also be technological roadblocks to change, experts said.

The traditional infrastructure that underpins workplace retirement plans wasn’t designed to handle intraday trading, meaning it wasn’t built for ETFs, Mariah Marquardt, capital markets strategy and operations manager at Betterment for Work, wrote in a 2023 analysis. Orders by investors for mutual funds are only priced once a day, when the market closes.

There are also entrenched payment and distribution arrangements in mutual funds that ETFs can’t accommodate, experts said.

Mutual funds have many different share classes. Depending on the class, the total mutual fund fee an investor pays may include charges for many different players in the 401(k) ecosystem: the investment manager, plan administrator, financial advisor and other third parties, for example.

That net mutual fund fee gets divvied up and distributed to those various parties, but investors largely don’t see those line items on their account statements, Chao said.

Conversely, ETFs have just one share class. They don’t have the ability the bundle together those distribution fees, meaning investors’ expenses appear as multiple line items, Chao said.

“A lot of people like to have just one item,” Chao said. “You feel like you’re not paying any more fees.”

“It’s almost like ignorance is bliss,” he said.

 

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There’s a key change coming to 401(k) catch-up contributions in 2025

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Many Americans face a retirement savings shortfall. However, setting aside more money could get easier for some older workers in 2025.

Enacted by Congress in 2022, the Secure Act 2.0 ushered in several retirement system improvements, including updates to 401(k) plans, required withdrawals, 529 college savings plans and more.

While some Secure 2.0 changes have already happened, another key change for “max savers,” will begin in 2025, according to Dave Stinnett, Vanguard’s head of strategic retirement consulting.

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Some 4 in 10 American workers are behind in retirement planning and savings, according to a CNBC survey, which polled roughly 6,700 adults in early August.

But changes to 401(k) catch-up contributions — a higher limit for workers age 50 and older — could soon help certain savers, experts say. Here’s what to know.

Higher 401(k) catch-up contributions

Employees can now defer up to $23,000 into 401(k) plans for 2024, with an extra $7,500 for workers age 50 and older.

But starting in 2025, workers aged 60 to 63 can boost annual 401(k) catch-up contributions to $10,000 — or 150% of the catch-up limit — whichever is greater. The IRS hasn’t yet unveiled the catch-up contribution limit for 2025.  

“This can be a great way for people to boost their retirement savings,” said certified financial planner Jamie Bosse, senior advisor at CGN Advisors in Manhattan, Kansas.

An estimated 15% of eligible workers made catch-up contributions in 2023, according to Vanguard’s 2024 How America Saves report.

Those making catch-up contributions tend to be higher earners, Vanguard’s Stinnett explained. But they could still have “real concerns about being able to retire comfortably.”

More than half of 401(k) participants with income above $150,000 and nearly 40% with an account balance of more than $250,000 made catch-up contributions in 2023, the Vanguard report found.

Roth catch-up contributions

Another Secure 2.0 change will remove the upfront tax break on catch-up contributions for higher earners by only allowing the deposits in after-tax Roth accounts.

The change applies to catch-up deposits to 401(k), 403(b) or 457(b) plans who earned more than $145,000 from a single company the prior year. The amount will adjust for inflation annually. 

However, IRS in August 2023 delayed the implementation of that rule to January 2026. That means workers can still make pretax 401(k) catch-up contributions through 2025, regardless of income.

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