AI-generated responses are becoming more common, whether travelers know or not.
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An automated financial advisor called PortfolioPilot has quickly gained $20 billion in assets in a possible preview of how disruptive artificial intelligence could be for the wealth management industry.
The service has added more than 22,000 users since its launch two years ago, according to Alexander Harmsen, co-founder of Global Predictions, which launched the product.
The San Francisco-based startup raised $2 million this month from investors including Morado Ventures and the NEA Angel Fund to fund its growth, CNBC has learned.
The world’s largest wealth management firms have rushed to implement generative AI after the arrival of OpenAI’s ChatGPT, rolling out services that augment human financial advisors with meeting assistants and chatbots. But the wealth management industry has long feared a future where human advisors are no longer necessary, and that possibility seems closer with generative AI, which uses large language models to create human-sounding responses to questions.
Still, the advisor-led wealth management space, with giants including Morgan Stanley and Bank of America, has grown over the past decade even amid the advent of robo-advisors like Betterment and Wealthfront. At Morgan Stanley, for instance, advisors manage $4.4 trillion in assets, far more than the $1.2 trillion managed in its self-directed channel.
Many providers, whether human or robo-advisor, end up putting clients into similar portfolios, said Harmsen, 32, who previously cofounded an autonomous drone software company called Iris Automation.
“People are fed up with cookie-cutter portfolios,” Harmsen told CNBC. “They really want opinionated insights; they want personalized recommendations. If we think about next-generation advice, I think it’s truly personalized, and you get to control how involved you are.”
AI-generated report cards
The startup uses generative AI models from OpenAI, Anthropic and Meta’s Llama, meshing it with machine learning algorithms and traditional finance models for more than a dozen purposes throughout the product, including for forecasting and assessing user portfolios, Harmsen said.
When it comes to evaluating portfolios, Global Predictions focuses on three main factors: whether investment risk levels match the user’s tolerance; risk-adjusted returns; and resilience against sharp declines, he said.
Users can get a report card-style grade of their portfolio by connecting their investment accounts or manually inputting their stakes into the service, which is free; a $29 per month “Gold” account adds personalized investment recommendations and an AI assistant.
“We will give you very specific financial advice, we will tell you to buy this stock, or ‘Here’s a mutual fund that you’re paying too much in fees for, replace it with this,'” Harmsen said.
“It could be simple stuff like that, or it could be much more complicated advice, like, ‘You’re overexposed to changing inflation conditions, maybe you should consider adding some commodities exposure,'” he added.
Global Predictions targets people with between $100,000 and $5 million in assets — in other words, people with enough money to begin worrying about diversification and portfolio management, Harmsen said.
The median PortfolioPilot user has a $450,000 net worth, he said.
The startup doesn’t yet take custody of user funds; instead it gives paying customers detailed directions on how to best tailor their portfolios. While that has lowered the hurdle for users to get involved with the software, a future version could give the company more control over client money, Harmsen said.
“It’s likely that over the next year or two, we will build more and more automation and deeper integrations into these institutions, and maybe even a Gen 2 robo-advisor system that allows you to custody funds with us, and we’ll just execute the trades for you.”
‘Massive shake up’
Harmsen said he created the first version of PortfolioPilot a few years ago to manage his own newfound wealth after selling his first company.
He’d grown frustrated after meeting more than a dozen financial advisors and realizing that they were “basically just salespeople trying to give access to this fairly standard” approach, he said.
“It felt like a very real problem for me, because the only alternative I saw on the market was, you know, basically becoming a day trader and becoming my own portfolio manager,” Harmsen said.
“I wanted hedge fund-quality tools and ways to think about risk and downside protection, and portfolio management across all of my different accounts and the buckets of money in crypto and real estate,” he said.
So around the time he was starting a family and buying a home in San Francisco, he began coding a program that could manage his investments.
After realizing it could have a broader use, Harmsen began building a team for Global Predictions, including three former employees of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund.
The company’s rise has attracted regulatory scrutiny; in March, the Securities and Exchange Commission accused Global Predictions of making misleading claims in 2023 on its website, including that it was the “first regulated AI financial advisor.” Global Predictions paid a $175,000 fine and changed its tagline as a result.
While today’s dominant providers have been rushing to implement AI, many will be left behind by the transition to fully automated advice, Harmsen predicted.
“The real key is you need to find a way to use AI and economic models and portfolio management models to generate advice automatically,” he said.
“I think that is such a huge jump for the traditional industry; it’s not incremental, it’s very black or white,” he said. “I don’t know what’s going to happen over the next 10 years, but I suspect there will be a massive shake up for traditional human financial advisors.”
Check out the companies making headlines in after-hours trading: Netflix — The streaming stock popped more than 4% after third-quarter earnings topped expectations. Netflix earned $5.40 per share on $9.83 billion in revenue, while analysts forecast $5.12 a share and $9.77 billion in revenue. The company also said its ad-tier memberships jumped 35% quarter over quarter. Intuitive Surgical — Shares jumped about 5% after the maker of the da Vinci surgical robot posted better-than-expected third-quarter results. Intuitive Surgical earned $1.84 per share on $2.04 billion in revenue. Analysts surveyed by LSEG had estimated earnings of $1.63 per share on $2 billion in revenue. WD-40 — The maintenance product maker’s shares dropped more than 4% after a disappointing fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report. The company earned $1.23 per share, and said it expects fiscal 2025 profits of between $5.20 and $5.45 per share. OceanFirst Financial — Shares advanced 2.8% after OceanFirst announced that it earned 39 cents per share in the third quarter, a penny above the consensus estimates from FactSet. On the other hand, net interest income and net interest margin both came in lower than forecast. MGP Ingredients — The spirits and food ingredient maker’s stock tumbled nearly 20% after the company warned of disappointing third-quarter results and lowered its full year guidance. CEO David Bratcher said its performance was hurt by weak alcohol trends and elevated whiskey inventories. Marten Transport — Shares of the trucking company slid almost 3% after third-quarter earnings came in lower than analysts anticipated. Revenue and operating income were also lower than the forecasts from three analysts polled by FactSet. Supernus Pharmaceuticals — Shares popped as much as 5% after Supernus Pharmaceuticals announced results from a Phase 2a study of an antidepressant therapy that showed a “rapid and substantial decrease” in depressive symptoms. — CNBC’s Hakyung Kim and Sarah Min contributed reporting.
Check out the companies making the biggest moves midday: Taiwan Semiconductor — Shares surged 12% after the company, which is the world’s largest producer of advanced chips, reported a 54% gain in net profit for the third quarter driven by strong AI-related demand. Shares of chip giants Nvidia and Micron each rose about 3% in sympathy following the quarterly results. Nvidia — The AI-darling was up nearly 3% after hitting a record high earlier in the trading session. Taiwan Semiconductor, which is rallying on its earnings report, is a major Nvidia supplier. Expedia , Uber — Shares of the companies moved in opposite directions following a Financial Times report, which cited people familiar with the process, that Uber explored a potential takeover bid for Expedia. The paper said Uber’s interest in the online travel company was at a “very early stage.” Following the report, Expedia rose more than 3%, while Uber fell more than 2%. Elevance Health — The health insurer dropped 12% after reporting a profit of $8.37 per share for the third quarter, excluding items, while analysts polled by LSEG anticipated $9.66 a share. The company cited “unprecedented challenges” in the Medicaid business. However, Elevance saw $44.72 billion in revenue, above the consensus forecast of $43.37 billion. Travelers — Shares jumped 7.6% after the insurance company posted a big earnings beat before the bell. Travelers’ third-quarter earnings came in at $5.24 per share, topping the $3.55 a share expected from analysts polled by LSEG. However, revenue missed estimates. Lucid Group — The electric vehicle maker tumbled 15% after the company announced a public offering of almost 262.5 million shares of its common stock to raise $1.67 billion. Blackstone — The stock rallied nearly 7% on the back of the alternative asset managers’ financial report. Blackstone reported third-quarter earnings of $1.01 per share on revenue of $2.43 billion. Analysts polled by LSEG had expected EPS of 92 cents on revenue of $2.41 billion. CSX — Shares slipped 5.9% after the transportation company reported disappointing third-quarter results. CSX’s earnings were 46 cents per share on revenue of $3.62 billion. That’s below the consensus estimate of 48 cents per share and $3.67 billion in revenue, per LSEG. Nokia — U.S.-listed shares of the Finnish telecommunications giant fell 3% after the company posted an 8% dip in third quarter sales due to a slowdown in the Indian market. However, its quarterly profit increased 22%. Alcoa — The aluminum producer’s stock shed more than 3% after the company reported third-quarter revenue of $2.90 billion, below the $2.97 billion LSEG consensus estimate. However, its adjusted earnings of 57 cents per share topped the 28 cents a share expected from analysts. Equifax — Shares fell 2.6% after the company’s guidance fell short of expectations. Equifax expects fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share between $2.08 and $2.18, versus the $2.20 a share estimate from analysts polled by FactSet. The company guided for full-year adjusted EPS between $7.25 and $7.35, short of the $7.36 consensus estimate. Revenue for both the fourth quarter and full year also came in below expectations. Steel Dynamics — The stock gained nearly 5% after the steel producer beat earnings and revenue expectations for the third quarter. For the period, Steel Dynamics posted earnings of $2.05 per share on $4.34 billion in revenue, above the $1.97 per share on $4.18 in revenue that analysts were expecting, according to LSEG. Looking toward 2025, the company said it expects steel pricing to recover. Synovus Financial — Shares popped 5% after the company reported better-than-expected adjusted earnings per share for the third quarter. Synovus also guided for fourth-quarter adjusted revenue of $560 million to $575 million, above the $558 million expected from analysts polled by FactSet. Walgreens Boots Alliance — The stock dropped about 5%, paring some of the 15.8% it gained in the prior session and now on pace for its worst day since Aug 27. On Wednesday, Walgreens reported a fourth-quarter earnings beat and said it plans to close about 1,200 stores over the next three years. — CNBC’s Sean Conlon, Hakyung Kim, Alex Harring and Pia Singh contributed reporting.
Check out the companies making headlines before the bell. Elevance Health – Shares plummeted more than 10% after the health insurer reported weaker-than-expected third-quarter earnings. In a statement , CEO Gail Boudreaux said the company remains “confident” amid “unprecedented challenges in the Medicaid business.” Health care stocks Molina Healthcare and Centene also fell nearly 9% and more than 7%, respectively. Taiwan Semiconductor – The stock surged more than 8% after the company reported a 54% gain in net profit for the third quarter. Shares of chip giant Nvidia – one of TSMC’s clients – rose more than 3% in sympathy following the quarterly results. Expedia – Shares jumped nearly 5% after The Financial Times reported, citing people familiar with the process, that Uber explored a potential takeover bid for the online travel company. According to Financial Times sources, Uber’s interest in Expedia was at an “early stage.” Uber shares fell more than 2%. Lucid Group – The stock tumbled 18% after the electric vehicle maker announced a public offering of nearly 262.5 million shares of its common stock. Lucid also said its majority stockholder, Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund affiliate Ayar Third Investment, will purchase more than 374.7 million shares of its common stock. Nokia – Shares slid more than 5% after the company reported an 8% dip in sales for the third quarter, citing a slowdown in the Indian market. Nokia’s profit for the period, however, increased 22%. Looking ahead, CEO Pekka Lundmark said in a statement that he expects full-year profit to come in “within the bottom-half” of its guidance range. CSX – The transportation stock fell more than 4% following the company’s weaker-than-expected quarterly results. For the third quarter, CSX posted earnings of 46 cents per share on revenue of $3.62 billion. That’s below the 48 cents per share and $3.67 billion in revenue that analysts were expecting, per LSEG. Alcoa – Shares rallied nearly 7% following the aluminum producer’s earnings beat. Alcoa reported third-quarter adjusted earnings of 57 cents per share, versus the 28 cents a share expected from analysts polled by LSEG. However, revenue came in at $2.90 billion, below the $2.97 billion consensus estimate. Kinder Morgan – The energy infrastructure stock slipped 2.1% after third-quarter earnings missed analyst expectations. Kinder Morgan posted adjusted earnings per share of 25 cents on $3.70 billion in revenue. Analysts polled by LSEG had forecasted 27 cents a share and $3.98 billion, respectively. — CNBC’s Alex Harring and Michelle Fox Theobald contributed reporting.