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How Biden, Harris and Trump would change Social Security and Medicare

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A voter fills out a ballot at a polling station on Election Day in Falls Church, Virginia, U.S., November 7, 2023. 

Kevin Lamarque | Reuters

When it comes to the November election, there is one issue that is at the top of voters’ wish lists: Social Security.

Despite political division, most Americans — 87% — want action to address Social Security’s trust fund shortfall, according to the National Institute on Retirement Security. The group polled 1,208 individuals aged 25 and older.

Meanwhile, 69% of Americans said a candidate’s stance on Social Security will be a major factor in how they vote in the presidential election, according to Nationwide Retirement Institute.

It polled 1,831 adults age 18 and up who “currently receive or expect to receive Social Security.”

While experts mostly agree a fix is needed, they are divided on how that should happen — whether it be through tax increases, benefit cuts or a combination of both.

The deadline to fix the programs will only grow more urgent during the next presidential administration.

“If something is going to happen before the eleventh hour, it is going to require presidential leadership,” said Emerson Sprick, associate director of the Bipartisan Policy Center’s Economic Policy Program. “That’s something we haven’t seen on this issue for a very long time.”

Projected depletion dates are looming

The latest projections from the Social Security trustees estimate the program’s combined funds may run out in 2035. At that time, just 83% of benefits may be payable. The projected depletion date for the trust fund used to pay retirement benefits is even sooner in 2033.

Medicare also faces a looming depletion date for its hospital insurance fund, which is projected to be able to pay 100% of benefits until 2036.

It is up to lawmakers to address the shortfalls before the projected depletion dates, when the programs will face across-the-board benefit cuts.

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The looming depletion dates come as the programs face other pressures.

Retirees are now reaching “peak 65” — with more than 11,200 individuals turning 65 every day.

As more individuals rely on Social Security and Medicare, the gross national debt has now climbed to a record $35 trillion.

“We should fix our dangerously close to insolvent Social Security and Medicare trust funds,” Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, said in a statement.

Biden can ‘show leadership’ before presidency ends

U.S. President Joe Biden is flanked by family members as he speaks about the release of Americans detained in Russia during brief remarks at the White House in Washington, U.S., August 1, 2024. 

Nathan Howard | Reuters

While the focus is on the presidential campaigns, President Joe Biden still has a window of opportunity to work to address Social Security and Medicare.

“Biden has a really fantastic opportunity, if he wants to get the ball rolling and show some leadership on the issue in the lame duck,” Sprick said.

Some Democrats have proposed raising taxes for the wealthy and increasing benefits.

Meanwhile, a bipartisan group of lawmakers has proposed forming a commission to identify next steps. But those efforts like those have yet to prompt action, which would likely require compromises.

“The folks in Congress need leadership and a little bit of cover from the top of the ticket,” Sprick said.

Biden publicly vowed to protect Social Security and Medicare and “make the wealthy pay their fair share” during his March State of the Union address.

“We could extend the life of Medicare’s Trust Fund permanently — without cutting benefits — if Congressional Republicans would get on board with the President’s historic budget proposal to raise taxes on the wealthy,” said White House spokesperson Robyn Patterson.

“The President’s budget also clearly states his principles for strengthening Social Security,” Patterson said. “He looks forward to working with Congress to responsibly strengthen Social Security by ensuring that high-income individuals pay their fair share, without increasing taxes on anyone making less than $400,000 or cutting benefits.”

Trump wants to eliminate some Social Security taxes

Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump holds a campaign rally in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, U.S., July 31, 2024. 

Elizabeth Frantz | Reuters

Former President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social on Thursday, in all capital letters, “Seniors should not pay tax on Social Security!”

Experts say the post likely refers to the taxes Social Security beneficiaries may owe on their benefit income. The Trump campaign did not return a request for comment by press time.

Exactly how much Social Security beneficiaries pay in taxes is based on their “combined income,” which includes adjusted gross income, nontaxable interest and half of their Social Security benefits.

For individuals with $25,000 to $34,000 in combined income — or married couples who file jointly with between $32,000 and $44,000 — up to 50% of benefits are taxed.

For individuals with more than $34,000 in combined income — or married couples with more than $44,000 — up to 85% of benefits may be taxable.

Former President Donald Trump on entitlements: There's tremendous numbers of things you can do

Those thresholds are not adjusted for inflation. Consequently, as time passes and benefit income increases, more beneficiaries are liable for taxes on their benefits.

Nixing those levies would allow beneficiaries to keep more of their benefit income. But it would also reduce revenues for both Social Security and Medicare by about $1.6 trillion to $1.8 trillion between fiscal years 2026 and 2035, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates.

Like Biden, Trump has mostly promised not to cut Social Security. Yet in a March CNBC interview, Trump said he would consider cutting “entitlements,” which may refer to Social Security, Medicare or Medicaid.

“There is a lot you can do in terms of entitlements, in terms of cutting and in terms of also the theft and bad management of entitlements,” Trump told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”

Harris opposes benefit cuts

Democratic presidential candidate, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at a campaign rally at the Georgia State Convocation Center on July 30, 2024 in Atlanta, Georgia. 

Megan Varner | Getty Images

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Maximum Social Security retirement benefit: Here’s who qualifies

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Millions of Social Security beneficiaries will benefit from the 2.5% cost-of-living adjustment for 2025, set to take effect in January.

With that increase, the maximum Social Security benefit for a worker retiring at full retirement age will jump to $4,018 per month, up from $3,822 per month this year, according to the Social Security Administration.

But while those maximum benefits will see a $196 monthly increase, retirement benefits will go up by about $50 per month on average, according to the agency.

The average monthly benefit for retired workers is expected to increase to $1,976 per month in 2025, a $49 increase from $1,927 per month as of this year, according to the Social Security Administration.

Who gets maximum Social Security benefits?

The highest Social Security benefits generally go to people who have had maximum earnings their entire working career, according to Paul Van de Water, a senior fellow at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.

That cohort generally includes a “very small number of people,” he said.

Because Social Security retirement benefits are calculated based on the highest 35 years of earnings, workers need to consistently have wages up to that threshold to earn the maximum retirement benefit.

“Very few people start out at age 21 earning the maximum level,” Van de Water said.

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Workers contribute payroll taxes to Social Security up to what is known as a taxable maximum.

In 2024, a 6.2% tax paid by both workers and employers (or 12.4% for self-employed workers) applies to up to $168,600 in earnings. In 2025, that will go up to $176,100.

Notably, that limit applies only to wages that are subject to federal payroll taxes. If a wealthy person has other sources of income, for example from investments that do not require payroll tax contributions, that will not affect the size of their Social Security benefits, said Jim Blair, vice president of Premier Social Security Consulting and a former Social Security administrator.

How can you increase your Social Security benefits?   

There are beneficiaries who are receiving Social Security checks amounting to more than $4,000 per month, and they usually have waited to claim until age 70, according to Blair.

“Technically, waiting until 70 gets you the most amount of Social Security benefits,” Blair said.

By claiming retirement benefits at the earliest possible age — 62 — beneficiaries receive permanently reduced benefits.

At full retirement age — either 66 or 67, depending on date of birth — retirees receive 100% of the benefits they’ve earned.

And by waiting from full retirement age up to age 70, beneficiaries stand to receive an 8% benefit boost per year.

By waiting from age 62 to 70, beneficiaries may see a 77% increase in benefits.

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However, because everyone’s circumstances are different, it may not always make sense to wait until the highest possible claiming age, Blair said.

Prospective beneficiaries need to evaluate not only how their claiming decision will impact them individually, but also their spouse and any dependents, he said.

“You have to look at your own situation before you apply,” Blair said.

Also, it is important for prospective beneficiaries to create an online My Social Security account to review their benefit statements, he said. That will show estimates of future benefits and the earnings history the agency has on record.

Because that earnings information is used to calculate benefits, individuals should double check that information to make sure it is correct, Blair said. If it is not, they should contact the Social Security Administration to fix it.

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Inherited IRA rules are changing in 2025 — here’s what to know

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What to know about the 10-year rule

Before the Secure Act of 2019, heirs could “stretch” inherited IRA withdrawals over their lifetime, which helped reduce yearly taxes.

But certain accounts inherited since 2020 are subject to the “10-year rule,” meaning IRAs must be empty by the 10th year following the original account owner’s death. The rule applies to heirs who are not a spouse, minor child, disabled, chronically ill or certain trusts.

Since then, there’s been confusion about whether the heirs subject to the 10-year rule needed to take yearly withdrawals, known as required minimum distributions, or RMDs.

“You have a multi-dimensional matrix of outcomes for different inherited IRAs,” Dickson said. It’s important to understand how these rules impact your distribution strategy, he added.

After years of waived penalties, the IRS in July confirmed certain heirs will need to begin yearly RMDs from inherited accounts starting in 2025. The rule applies if the original account owner had reached their RMD age before death.

If you miss yearly RMDs or don’t take enough, there is a 25% penalty on the amount you should have withdrawn. But it’s possible to reduce the penalty to 10% if the RMD is “timely corrected” within two years, according to the IRS.

Consider ‘strategic distributions’

If you’re subject to the 10-year rule for your inherited IRA, spreading withdrawals evenly over the 10 years reduces taxes for most heirs, according to research released by Vanguard in June.

However, you should also consider “strategic distributions,” according to certified financial planner Judson Meinhart, director of financial planning at Modera Wealth Management in Winston-Salem, North Carolina.

“It starts by understanding what your current marginal tax rate is” and how that could change over the 10-year window, he said.

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For example, it could make sense to make withdrawals during lower-tax years, such as years of unemployment or early retirement before receiving Social Security payments. 

However, boosting adjusted gross income can trigger other consequences, such as eligibility for college financial aid, income-driven student loan payments or Medicare Part B and Part D premiums for retirees.

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Nearly 2 in 5 cardholders have maxed out a credit card or come close

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Asiavision | E+ | Getty Images

Between higher prices and high interest rates, some Americans have had a hard time keeping up.

As a result, many are using more of their available credit and now, nearly 2 in 5 credit cardholders — 37% — have maxed out or come close to maxing out a credit card since the Federal Reserve began raising rates in March 2022, according to a new report by Bankrate.

Most borrowers who are over extended blame rising prices and a higher cost of living, Bankrate found.

Other reasons cardholders blame for maxing out a credit card or coming close include a job or income loss, an emergency expense, medical costs and too much discretionary spending.

“With limited options to absorb those higher costs, many low-income Americans have had no choice but to take on debt to afford costlier essentials — at a time when credit card rates are near record highs,” Sarah Foster, an analyst at Bankrate, said in a statement.

As prices crept higher, so did credit card balances.

The average balance per consumer now stands at $6,329, up 4.8% year over year, according to the latest credit industry insights report from TransUnion.

At the same time, the average credit card charges more than 20% interest — near an all-time high — and half of cardholders carry debt from month to month, according to another report by Bankrate.  

Carrying a higher balance has a direct impact on your utilization rate, the ratio of debt to total credit, and is one of the factors that can influence your credit score. Higher credit score borrowers typically have both higher limits and lower utilization rates.

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Credit experts generally advise borrowers to keep revolving debt below 30% of their available credit to limit the effect that high balances can have.

As of August, the aggregate credit card utilization rate was more than 21%, according to Bankrate’s analysis of Equifax data.

Still, “if you have five credit cards [with utilization rates around] 20%, you have a lot of debt out there,” said Howard Dvorkin, a certified public accountant and the chairman of Debt.com. “People are living a life that they can’t afford right now, and they are putting the balance on credit cards.”

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Potential problems ahead

Cardholders who have maxed out or come close to maxing out their credit cards are also more likely to become delinquent.

Credit card delinquency rates are already higher across the board, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and TransUnion both reported.

“Consumers have been measured in taking on additional revolving debt despite the inflationary environment over the past few years, although there has been an uptick in delinquencies in recent months,” said Tom McGee, CEO of the International Council of Shopping Centers.

A debt is considered delinquent when a borrower misses a full billing cycle without making a payment, or what’s considered 30 days past due. That can damage your credit score and impact the interest rate you’ll pay for credit cards, car loans and mortgages — or whether you’ll get a loan at all.

Some of the best ways to improve your credit standing come down to paying your bills on time every month, and in full, if possible, Dvorkin said. “Understand that if you don’t, then whatever you buy, over time, will end up costing you double.”

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