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Mortgage rates drop to new low as Fed grows closer to slashing interest rates: Freddie Mac

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Mortgage rates dropped again this week to the lowest level since February, according to Freddie Mac.  (iStock)

Mortgage rates dropped again this week to the lowest level since February in anticipation of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September, according to Freddie Mac.

The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.73% for the week ending Aug. 1, according to Freddie Mac’s latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey. That’s a decrease from the previous week when it averaged 6.78% and lower than the 6.90% it was a year ago. 

The average rate for a 15-year mortgage was 5.99%, down from 6.07% last week and down from 6.25% last year. 

On Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell told reporters that the central bank has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving towards its 2% target rate, indicating that while rates were not lowered this time, they could soon be. Market expectations forecast a 25 basis point rate cut by the central bank’s September meeting. On Wednesday, the Mortgage Bankers Association said they anticipate two rate cuts this year, expecting inflation to continue to moderate.

However, an easing in the Fed’s interest rate policy and moderating home prices may not be enough to pull some homebuyers, currently sidelined by affordability issues, back into the market, according to Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist Sam Khater.

“Expectations of a Fed rate cut coupled with signs of cooling inflation bode well for the market, but apprehension in consumer confidence may prevent an immediate uptick as affordability challenges remain top of mind,” Khater said. “Despite this, a recent moderation in home price growth and increases in housing inventory are a welcoming sign for potential homebuyers.”

Homebuyers can find competitive mortgage rates by shopping around and comparing options. Visit an online marketplace like Credible to compare rates with multiple lenders at once.

MIDDLE-INCOME AMERICANS FEEL MORE OPTIMISM ABOUT FINANCES AND ECONOMY’S DIRECTION: SURVEY

Home prices cool

The national median list price dipped from $445,000 in June to $439,950 in July, according to a new monthly housing report by Realtor.com. At the same time, the housing supply increased by 36.6%, a ninth straight month of growth, and now sits at a post-pandemic high. 

Those two factors, combined with the prospect of lower interest rates – and potentially lower mortgage rates – should entice buyers back to the market. However, home prices remain near record highs and buyers waiting for more bargains in borrowing rates might not find them, according to Realtor.com Economist Jiayi Xu. A recent analysis from Realtor.com said that 86% of outstanding mortgage debt has a sub-6% rate, and more than three-quarters have a rate of 5% or lower—still significantly below where rates might end up this year.

“The housing market has been cooling in recent weeks, with stable prices, increasing listings, and longer time on market,” Xu said. “However, as home prices hover at or near record highs, affordability continues to be the top challenge. While the potential rate cut in September will be a good start to bring the rate down, subsequent drops in mortgage rates may not be as significant as many anticipated because the market is already pricing in rate cuts and such expectation is reflected by recent rate drops.”   

If you’d like to see if you qualify for a mortgage based on your current credit score and salary, consider visiting Credible, where you can compare multiple mortgage lenders at once.

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Market tips in favor of buyers

A recent Zillow report said home sellers have had to cut their listing prices to entice buyers. 

Roughly 24.5% of listings in June had a price cut, up from 23.8% the previous month. Market dynamics are shifting toward a pre-pandemic normal in terms of competition among buyers and their negotiating power, Zillow said.

“A growing segment of homes that aren’t competitively priced or well marketed are lingering on the market,” Zillow Chief Economist Skylar Olsen said. “Sellers are increasingly cutting prices to entice buyers struggling with affordability.”

“For years, the housing market has been defined by fast sales and few options,” Olsen continued. “Now it’s starting to look more like it did before the pandemic in terms of competition, if not costs. As the wait for mortgage rate relief drags on, slower price growth and even dips in some areas will help buyers catch up on saving for a down payment.”

If you are ready to shop for the best rate on a new mortgage, consider visiting an online marketplace like Credible to compare rates with multiple lenders at once.

HIGH HOMEOWNERS INSURANCE RATES SCARING AWAY FLORIDA HOMEBUYERS, OTHER STATES FACE THE SAME ISSUE

Have a finance-related question, but don’t know who to ask? Email The Credible Money Expert at moneyexpert@credible.com and your question might be answered by Credible in our Money Expert column.

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Investors are piling into big, short Treasury bets with Warren Buffett

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How bond ETFs are performing during the market volatility

Investors always pay close attention to bonds, and what the latest movement in prices and yields is saying about the economy. Right now, the action is telling investors to stick to the shorter-end of the fixed-income market with their maturities.

“There’s lots of concern and volatility, but on the short and middle end, we’re seeing less volatility and stable yields,” Joanna Gallegos, CEO and founder of bond ETF company BondBloxx, said on CNBC’s “ETF Edge.”

The 3-month T-Bill right now is paying above 4.3%, annualized. The two-year is paying 3.9% while the 10-year is offering about 4.4%. 

ETF flows in 2025 show that it’s the ultrashort opportunity that is attracting the most investors. The iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF (SGOV) and SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 T-Bill ETF (BIL) are both among the top 10 ETFs in investor flows this year, taking in over $25 billion in assets. Only Vanguard Group’s S&P 500 ETF (VOO) has taken in more new money from investors this year than SGOV, according to ETFAction.com data. Vanguard’s Short Term Bond ETF (BSV) is not far behind, with over $4 billion in flows this year, placing with the top 20 among all ETFs in year-to-date flows.

“Long duration just doesn’t work right now” said Todd Sohn, senior ETF and technical strategist at Strategas Securities, on “ETF Edge.”

It would seem that Warren Buffett agrees, with Berkshire Hathaway doubling its ownership of T-bills and now owning 5% of all short-term Treasuries, according to a JPMorgan report. 

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Investors including Warren Buffett have been piling into short term Treasuries.

“The volatility has been on the long end,” Gallegos said. “The 20-year has gone from negative to positive five times so far this year,” she added.

The bond volatility comes nine months after the Fed’s began cutting rates, a campaign it has since paused amid concerns about the potential for resurgent inflation due to tariffs. Broader market concerns about government spending and deficit levels, especially with a major tax cut bill on the horizon, have added to bond market jitters

Long-term treasuries and long-term corporate bonds have posted negative performance since September, which is very rare, according to Sohn. “The only other time that’s happened in modern times was during the financial crisis,” he said. “It is hard to argue against short term duration bonds right now,” he added. 

Sohn is advising clients to steer clear of anything with a duration of longer than seven years, which has a yield in the 4.1% range right now.

Gallegos says she is concerned that amid the bond market volatility, investors aren’t paying enough attention to fixed income as part of their portfolio mix. “My fear is investors are not diversifying their portfolios with bonds today, and investors still have an equity addiction to concentrated broad-based indexes that are overweight certain tech names. They get used to these double-digit returns,” she said. 

Volatility in the stock market has been high this year as well. The S&P 500 rose to record levels in February, before falling 20%, hitting a low in April, and then reversing all of those losses more recently. While bonds are an important component of long-term investing to shield a portfolio from stock corrections, Sohn said now is also a time for investors to look beyond the United States with their equity positions. 

“International equities are contributing to portfolios like they haven’t done in a decade” he said. “Last year was Japanese equities, this year it is European equities. Investors don’t have to be loaded up on U.S. large cap growth right now,” he said.

The iShares MSCI Eurozone ETF (EZU) is up 25% so far this year.  The iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ) Japan ETF is up 25% over the last two years. 

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Overseas assets have become more popular.

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Apple’s China rival Xiaomi still has major upside, analysts say

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Why JPMorgan hired NOAA’s Sarah Kapnick as chief climate scientist

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Sarah Kapnick started her career in 2004 as an investment banking analyst for Goldman Sachs. She was struck almost immediately by the overlap of financial growth and climate change, and the lack of client advisory around that theme.

Integrating the two, she thought, would help investors understand both the risks and opportunities, and would help them use climate information in finance and business operations. With a degree in theoretical mathematics and geophysical fluid dynamics, Kapnick saw herself as uniquely positioned to take on that challenge.

But first, she had to get deeper into the science.

That led her to more study and then to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the nation’s scientific and regulatory agency within the U.S. Department of Commerce. Its defined mission is to understand and predict changes in climate, weather, oceans and coasts and to share that knowledge and information with others.

In 2022, Kapnick was appointed NOAA’s chief scientist. Two years later, JPMorgan Chase hired her away, but not as chief sustainability officer, a role common at most large investment banks around the world and a position already filled at JPMorgan.

Rather, Kapnick is JPMorgan’s global head of climate advisory, a unique job she envisioned back in 2004.

Just days before the official start of the North American hurricane season, CNBC spoke with Kapnick from her office at JPMorgan in New York about her current role at the bank and how she’s advising and warning clients.

Here’s the Q&A: 

(This interview has been lightly edited for length and clarity.) 

Diana Olick, CNBC: Why does JPMorgan need you?

Sarah Kapnick, JPMorgan global head of climate advisory: JPMorgan and banks need climate expertise because there is client demand for understanding climate change, understanding how it affects businesses, and understanding how to plan. Clients want to understand how to create frameworks for thinking about climate change, how to think about it strategically, how to think about it in terms of their operations, how to think about it in terms of their diversification and their long-term business plans.

Everybody’s got a chief sustainability officer. You are not that. What is the difference?

The difference is, I come with a deep background in climate science, but also how that climate science translates into business, into the economy. Working at NOAA for most of my career, NOAA is a science agency, but it’s science agency under the Department of Commerce. And so my job was to understand the future due to physics, but then be able to translate into what does that mean for the economy? What does that mean for economic development? What does that mean for economic output, and how do you use that science to be able to support the future of commerce? So I have this deep thinking that combines all that science, all of that commerce thinking, that economy, how it translates into national security. And so it wraps up all these different issues that people are facing right now and the systematic issues, so that they can understand, how do you navigate through that complexity, and then how do you move forward with all that information at hand?

Give us an example, on a ground level, of what some of that expertise does for investors.

There’s a client that’s concerned about the future of wildfire risk, and so they’re asking, How is wildfire risk unfolding? Why is it not in building codes? How might building codes change in the future? What happens for that? What type of modeling is used for that, what type of observations are used for that? So I can explain to them the whole flow of where is the data? How is the data used in decisions, where do regulations come from. How are they evolving? How might they evolve in the future? So we can look through the various uncertainties of different scenarios of what the world looks like, to make decisions about what to do right now, to be able to prepare for that, or to be able to shift in that preparation over time as uncertainty comes down and more information is known

So are they making investment decisions based on your information?

Yes, they’re making investment decisions. And they’re making decisions of when to invest because sometimes they have a knowledge of something as it’s starting to evolve. They want to act either early or they want to act as more information is known, but they want to know kind of the whole sphere of what the possibilities are and when information will be known or could be known, and what are the conditions that they will know more information, so they can figure out when they want to act, when that threshold of information is that they need to act.

How does that then inform their judgment on their investment, specifically on wildfire?

Because wildfire risk is growing, there’ve been a few events like the Los Angeles wildfires that were recently seen. The questions that I’m getting are could this happen in my location? When will it happen? Will I have advanced notice? How should I change and invest in my infrastructure? How should I think about differences in my infrastructure, my infrastructure construction? Should I be thinking about insurance, different types of insurance? How should I be accessing the capital markets to do this type of work? It’s questions across a range of trying to figure out how to reduce vulnerability, how to reduce financial exposure, but then also, if there are going to be risks in this one location, maybe there are more opportunities in these other locations that are safer, and I should be thinking of them as well. It’s holistically across risk management and thinking through risk and what to do about it, but then also thinking about what opportunities might be emerging as a result of this change in physical conditions in the world.

But you’re not an economist. Do you work with others at JPMorgan to augment that?

Yes, my work is very collaborative. I work across various teams with subject matter experts from different sectors, different industries, different parts of capital, and so I come with my expertise of science and technology and policy and security, and then work with them in whatever sphere that they’re in to be able to deliver the most to the bank that we can for our clients.

With the cuts by the Trump administration to NOAA, to FEMA, to all of the information gathering sources — we’re not seeing some of the things that we normally see in data. How is that affecting your work?

I am looking to what is available for what we need, for whatever issue. I will say that if data is no longer available, we will translate and move into other data sets, use other data sets, and I’m starting to see the development out in certain parts of the private sector to pull in those types of data that used to be available elsewhere. I think that we’re going to see this adjustment period where people search out whatever data it is they need to answer the questions that they have. And there will be opportunities. There’s a ton of startups that are starting to develop in that area, as well as more substantial companies that have some of those data sets. They’re starting to make them available, but there’s going to be this adjustment period as people figure out where they’re going to get the information that they need, because many market decisions or financial decisions are based on certain data sets that people thought would always be there.

But the government data was considered the top, irrefutable, best data there was. Now, how do we know, when going to the private sector, that this data is going to be as credible as government data?

There’s going to be an adjustment period as people figure out what data sets to trust and what not to trust, and what they want to be using. This is a point in time where there is going to be adjustment because something that everyone got used to working with, they now won’t have that. And that is a question that I’m getting from a lot of clients, of what data set should I be looking for? How should I be assessing this problem? Do I build in-house teams now to be able to assess this information that I didn’t have before? And I’m starting to see that occurring across different sectors, where people are increasingly having their own meteorologist, their own climatologist, to be able to help guide them through some of these decisions.

Final thoughts?

Climate change isn’t something that is going to happen in the future and impact finance in the future. It’s something that is a future risk that is now actually finding us in the bottom line today.

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