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Economics

Jeremy Siegel backs off on calls for Fed to do an emergency rate cut

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Jeremy Siegel

Scott Mlyn | CNBC

Wharton School Professor Jeremy Siegel no longer thinks it’s vital for the Federal Reserve to implement an emergency interest rate reduction, but still wants policymakers to cut quickly and aggressively.

Siegel caused a stir Monday when he told CNBC that Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues should institute an emergency 0.75 percentage point decrease now and follow it up with another one in September.

Those comments came with markets cratering amid fears over a recession and concern that the Fed is being too slow-footed in easing policy now that the inflation rate has decelerated. However, positive data since then and a ferocious market rally Thursday apparently have eased the urgency.

“I no longer certainly think it’s necessary. But I want [Powell] to move down to 4% as fast as possible,” Siegel said during a phone interview. “Would it be bad? No. But would it be necessary? No, not at this time.”

The Fed on July 31 voted to hold its key interest rate between 5.25%-5.5%, a decision that quickly came under criticism when a report the next day on weekly jobless claims showed a spike and a manufacturing gauge put the sector further into contraction.

However, data Thursday showed claims moved lower from the previous week, and a service sector reading earlier in the week also was better than expected.

“Obviously, I wanted to shake things up,” Siegel said of his call for an intermeeting move. “There’s no way he’s going to do that without things falling apart. I don’t think things are falling apart. But by all criteria and all monetary rules … they should be under 4%.”

Markets pricing indicates the Fed will cut by at least a quarter percentage point in September and likely by a full point by the end of 2024. However, those expectations have been volatile as investors watch how quickly the Fed thinks it should ease policy.

An emergency cut under these circumstances is “just not the way Jay Powell does things,” Siegel said. “But Jay Powell has done things way too slow, certainly on the way up, and I just want to make sure he doesn’t make the same mistakes on the way down.”

Economics

UK inflation September 2024

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The Canary Wharf business district is seen in the distance behind autumnal leaves on October 09, 2024 in London, United Kingdom.

Dan Kitwood | Getty Images News | Getty Images

LONDON — Inflation in the U.K. dropped sharply to 1.7% in September, the Office for National Statistics said Wednesday.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected the headline rate to come in at a higher 1.9% for the month, in the first dip of the print below the Bank of England’s 2% target since April 2021.

Inflation has been hovering around that level for the last four months, and came in at 2.2% in August.

Core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, came in at 3.2% for the month, down from 3.6% in August and below the 3.4% forecast of a Reuters poll.

Price rises in the services sector, the dominant portion of the U.K. economy, eased significantly to 4.9% last month from 5.6% in August, now hitting its lowest rate since May 2022.

Core and services inflation are key watch points for Bank of England policymakers as they mull whether to cut interest rates again at their November meeting.

As of Wednesday morning, market pricing put an 80% probability on a November rate cut ahead of the latest inflation print. Analysts on Tuesday said lower wage growth reported by the ONS this week had supported the case for a cut. The BOE reduced its key rate by 25 basis points in August before holding in September.

Within the broader European region, inflation in the euro zone dipped below the European Central Bank’s 2% target last month, hitting 1.8%, according to the latest data.

This is a breaking news story and will be updated shortly.

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Economics

Why Larry Hogan’s long-odds bid for a Senate seat matters

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FEW REPUBLICAN politicians differ more from Donald Trump than Larry Hogan, the GOP Senate candidate in Maryland. Consider the contrasts between a Trump rally and a Hogan event. Whereas Mr Trump prefers to take the stage and riff in front of packed arenas, Mr Hogan spent a recent Friday night chatting with locals at a waterfront wedding venue in Baltimore County. Mr Hogan’s stump speech, at around ten minutes, felt as long as a single off-script Trump tangent. Mr Trump delights in defying his advisers; Mr Hogan fastidiously sticks to talking points about bipartisanship, good governance and overcoming tough odds. Put another way, Mr Hogan’s campaign is something Mr Trump is rarely accused of being: boring. But it is intriguing.

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Economics

Polarisation by education is remaking American politics

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DEPENDING ON where exactly you find yourself, western Pennsylvania can feel Appalachian, Midwestern, booming or downtrodden. No matter where, however, this part of the state feels like the centre of the American political universe. Since she became the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, Kamala Harris has visited Western Pennsylvania six times—more often than Philadelphia, on the other side of the state. She will mark her seventh on a trip on October 14th, to the small city of Erie, where Donald Trump also held a rally recently. Democratic grandees flit through Pittsburgh regularly. It is where Ms Harris chose to unveil the details of her economic agenda, and it is where Barack Obama visited on October 10th to deliver encouragement and mild chastisement. “Do not just sit back and hope for the best,” he admonished. “Get off your couch and vote.”

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