Personal Finance

Unemployment insurance program is unprepared for a recession: experts

Published

2 months ago

August 9, 2024

Business Finance News

Job seekers attends the JobNewsUSA.com South Florida Job Fair on June 26, 2024 in Sunrise, Florida.

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Renewed fears of a U.S. recession have put a spotlight on unemployment.

However, the system that workers rely on to collect unemployment benefits is at risk of buckling — as it did during the Covid-19 pandemic — if there’s another economic downturn, experts say.

“It absolutely isn’t” ready for the next recession, said Michele Evermore, senior fellow at the Century Foundation, a progressive think tank, and former deputy director for policy in U.S. Labor Department’s Office of Unemployment Insurance Modernization.

“If anything, we’re kind of in worse shape right now,” she said.

Unemployment insurance provides temporary income support to laid-off workers, thereby helping prop up consumer spending and the broader U.S. economy during downturns.

The pandemic exposed “major cracks” in the system, including “massive technology failures” and an administrative structure “ill equipped” to pay benefits quickly and accurately, according to a recent report issued by the National Academy of Social Insurance.

There’s also wide variation among states — which administer the programs — relative to factors like benefit amount, duration and eligibility, according to the report, authored by more than two dozen unemployment insurance experts.

“The pandemic exposed longstanding challenges to the UI program,” Andrew Stettner, the deputy director for policy in the Labor Department’s Office of UI Modernization, said during a recent webinar about the NASI report.

The U.S. unemployment rate, at 4.3% in July, remains a far cry from its pandemic-era peak and is low by historical standards. But it has gradually drifted upward over the past year, fueling rumblings about a potential recession on horizon.

Policymakers should address the system’s shortcomings when times are good “so it can deliver when times are bad,” Stettner said.

Why the unemployment insurance program buckled

Joblessness ballooned in the pandemic’s early days.

The national unemployment rate neared 15% in April 2020, the highest since the Great Depression, which was the worst downturn in the history of the industrialized world.

Claims for unemployment benefits peaked at more than 6 million in early April 2020, up from roughly 200,000 a week before the pandemic.

States were ill-prepared to handle the deluge, experts said.

Meanwhile, state unemployment offices were tasked with implementing a variety of new federal programs enacted by the CARES Act to enhance the system. Those programs raised weekly benefits, extended their duration and offered aid to a larger pool of workers, like those in the gig economy, for example.

Job growth totals 114,000 in July, much less than expected, as unemployment rate rises to 4.3%

Later, states had to adopt stricter fraud-prevention measures when it became clear that criminals, attracted by richer benefits, were pilfering funds.

The result of all this: benefits were extremely delayed for thousands of people, putting severe financial stress on many households. Others found it nearly impossible to reach customer service agents for help.

Years later, states haven’t fully recovered.

For example, the Labor Department generally considers benefit payments to be timely if issued within 21 days of an unemployment application. This year, about 80% of payments have been timely, compared to roughly 90% in 2019, according to agency data.

It’s imperative to build a system you need “for the worst part of the business cycle,” Indivar Dutta-Gupta, a labor expert and fellow at the Roosevelt Institute, said during the recent webinar.

Potential areas to fix

Experts who drafted the National Academy of Social Insurance outlined many areas for policymakers to fix.

Administration and technology were among them. States entered the pandemic at a 50-year low in funding, leading to “cascading failures,” the report said.

Today’s system is largely financed by a federal tax on employers, equivalent to $42 a year per employee. The federal government might opt to raise that tax rate, for example, the report said.

Raising such funding could help states modernize outdated technology, by optimizing mobile access for workers and allowing them to access portals 24 hours a day, seven days a week, for example. It would also make it easier to pivot in times of crisis, experts said.

Financing is the “biggest pitfall” that has allowed state systems to “really deteriorate,” Dutta-Gupta said.

Additionally, policymakers might consider more uniform rules around the duration and amount of benefits, and who can collect them, said Evermore, a NASI report author.

States use different formulas to determine factors like aid eligibility and weekly benefit payments.

The average American received $447 a week in benefits in the first quarter of 2024, replacing about 36% of their weekly wage, according to U.S. Labor Department data.

But benefits vary widely from state to state. Those differences are largely attributable to benefit formulas instead of wage disparities between states, experts said.

For example, the average Mississippi recipient got $221 a week in June 2024, while those in Washington state and Massachusetts received about $720 a week, Labor Department data show.

Further, 13 states currently provide less than a maximum 26 weeks — or, six months — of benefits, the report said. Many have called for a 26-week standard in all states.

Various proposals have also called for raising weekly benefit amounts, to the tune of perhaps 50% or 75% of lost weekly wages, for example, and giving some additional funds per dependent.

There are reasons for optimism, Evermore said.

U.S. Senate Finance Committee Chair Ron Wyden, D-Oregon, ranking committee member Sen. Mike Crapo, R-Idaho, and 10 co-sponsors proposed bipartisan legislation in July to reform aspects of the unemployment insurance program.

“I’m pretty encouraged right now” by the bipartisan will, Evermore said. “We need something, we need another grand bargain, before another downturn.”

Personal Finance

Maximum Social Security retirement benefit: Here’s who qualifies

Published

16 hours ago

October 17, 2024

Business Finance News

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Millions of Social Security beneficiaries will benefit from the 2.5% cost-of-living adjustment for 2025, set to take effect in January.

With that increase, the maximum Social Security benefit for a worker retiring at full retirement age will jump to $4,018 per month, up from $3,822 per month this year, according to the Social Security Administration.

But while those maximum benefits will see a $196 monthly increase, retirement benefits will go up by about $50 per month on average, according to the agency.

The average monthly benefit for retired workers is expected to increase to $1,976 per month in 2025, a $49 increase from $1,927 per month as of this year, according to the Social Security Administration.

Who gets maximum Social Security benefits?

The highest Social Security benefits generally go to people who have had maximum earnings their entire working career, according to Paul Van de Water, a senior fellow at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.

That cohort generally includes a “very small number of people,” he said.

Because Social Security retirement benefits are calculated based on the highest 35 years of earnings, workers need to consistently have wages up to that threshold to earn the maximum retirement benefit.

“Very few people start out at age 21 earning the maximum level,” Van de Water said.

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Workers contribute payroll taxes to Social Security up to what is known as a taxable maximum.

In 2024, a 6.2% tax paid by both workers and employers (or 12.4% for self-employed workers) applies to up to $168,600 in earnings. In 2025, that will go up to $176,100.

Notably, that limit applies only to wages that are subject to federal payroll taxes. If a wealthy person has other sources of income, for example from investments that do not require payroll tax contributions, that will not affect the size of their Social Security benefits, said Jim Blair, vice president of Premier Social Security Consulting and a former Social Security administrator.

How can you increase your Social Security benefits?

There are beneficiaries who are receiving Social Security checks amounting to more than $4,000 per month, and they usually have waited to claim until age 70, according to Blair.

“Technically, waiting until 70 gets you the most amount of Social Security benefits,” Blair said.

By claiming retirement benefits at the earliest possible age — 62 — beneficiaries receive permanently reduced benefits.

At full retirement age — either 66 or 67, depending on date of birth — retirees receive 100% of the benefits they’ve earned.

And by waiting from full retirement age up to age 70, beneficiaries stand to receive an 8% benefit boost per year.

By waiting from age 62 to 70, beneficiaries may see a 77% increase in benefits.

However, because everyone’s circumstances are different, it may not always make sense to wait until the highest possible claiming age, Blair said.

Prospective beneficiaries need to evaluate not only how their claiming decision will impact them individually, but also their spouse and any dependents, he said.

“You have to look at your own situation before you apply,” Blair said.

Also, it is important for prospective beneficiaries to create an online My Social Security account to review their benefit statements, he said. That will show estimates of future benefits and the earnings history the agency has on record.

Because that earnings information is used to calculate benefits, individuals should double check that information to make sure it is correct, Blair said. If it is not, they should contact the Social Security Administration to fix it.

Personal Finance

Inherited IRA rules are changing in 2025 — here’s what to know

Published

16 hours ago

October 17, 2024

Business Finance News

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What to know about the 10-year rule

Before the Secure Act of 2019, heirs could “stretch” inherited IRA withdrawals over their lifetime, which helped reduce yearly taxes.

But certain accounts inherited since 2020 are subject to the “10-year rule,” meaning IRAs must be empty by the 10th year following the original account owner’s death. The rule applies to heirs who are not a spouse, minor child, disabled, chronically ill or certain trusts.

Since then, there’s been confusion about whether the heirs subject to the 10-year rule needed to take yearly withdrawals, known as required minimum distributions, or RMDs.

“You have a multi-dimensional matrix of outcomes for different inherited IRAs,” Dickson said. It’s important to understand how these rules impact your distribution strategy, he added.

After years of waived penalties, the IRS in July confirmed certain heirs will need to begin yearly RMDs from inherited accounts starting in 2025. The rule applies if the original account owner had reached their RMD age before death.

If you miss yearly RMDs or don’t take enough, there is a 25% penalty on the amount you should have withdrawn. But it’s possible to reduce the penalty to 10% if the RMD is “timely corrected” within two years, according to the IRS.

Consider ‘strategic distributions’

If you’re subject to the 10-year rule for your inherited IRA, spreading withdrawals evenly over the 10 years reduces taxes for most heirs, according to research released by Vanguard in June.

However, you should also consider “strategic distributions,” according to certified financial planner Judson Meinhart, director of financial planning at Modera Wealth Management in Winston-Salem, North Carolina.

“It starts by understanding what your current marginal tax rate is” and how that could change over the 10-year window, he said.

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For example, it could make sense to make withdrawals during lower-tax years, such as years of unemployment or early retirement before receiving Social Security payments.

However, boosting adjusted gross income can trigger other consequences, such as eligibility for college financial aid, income-driven student loan payments or Medicare Part B and Part D premiums for retirees.

Personal Finance

Nearly 2 in 5 cardholders have maxed out a credit card or come close

Published

20 hours ago

October 17, 2024

Business Finance News

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Between higher prices and high interest rates, some Americans have had a hard time keeping up.

As a result, many are using more of their available credit and now, nearly 2 in 5 credit cardholders — 37% — have maxed out or come close to maxing out a credit card since the Federal Reserve began raising rates in March 2022, according to a new report by Bankrate.

Most borrowers who are over extended blame rising prices and a higher cost of living, Bankrate found.

Other reasons cardholders blame for maxing out a credit card or coming close include a job or income loss, an emergency expense, medical costs and too much discretionary spending.

“With limited options to absorb those higher costs, many low-income Americans have had no choice but to take on debt to afford costlier essentials — at a time when credit card rates are near record highs,” Sarah Foster, an analyst at Bankrate, said in a statement.

As prices crept higher, so did credit card balances.

The average balance per consumer now stands at $6,329, up 4.8% year over year, according to the latest credit industry insights report from TransUnion.

At the same time, the average credit card charges more than 20% interest — near an all-time high — and half of cardholders carry debt from month to month, according to another report by Bankrate.

Carrying a higher balance has a direct impact on your utilization rate, the ratio of debt to total credit, and is one of the factors that can influence your credit score. Higher credit score borrowers typically have both higher limits and lower utilization rates.

Credit experts generally advise borrowers to keep revolving debt below 30% of their available credit to limit the effect that high balances can have.

As of August, the aggregate credit card utilization rate was more than 21%, according to Bankrate’s analysis of Equifax data.

Still, “if you have five credit cards [with utilization rates around] 20%, you have a lot of debt out there,” said Howard Dvorkin, a certified public accountant and the chairman of Debt.com. “People are living a life that they can’t afford right now, and they are putting the balance on credit cards.”

Generation X at risk

Gen X most likely to max out their credit cards, survey finds

More than any other generation, Gen Xers in their 40s and 50s are most likely to have maxed out a credit card or come close in the past two and a half years, according to Bankrate’s report.

Of Gen Xers, 27% have maxed out their credit cards compared to 23% of millennials and 17% of Baby Boomers. Young adults in Gen Z are the least likely to have maxed out a card, according to the survey, which polled more than 3,500 adults, including 3,015 who are credit cardholders and 1,104 who have either maxed out their credit cards or come close.

Gen X, the so-called “sandwich generation,” must contend with supporting the generations ahead of them and their children at a time when the costs of higher education and health care have never been higher, studies also show.

Potential problems ahead

Cardholders who have maxed out or come close to maxing out their credit cards are also more likely to become delinquent.

Credit card delinquency rates are already higher across the board, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and TransUnion both reported.

“Consumers have been measured in taking on additional revolving debt despite the inflationary environment over the past few years, although there has been an uptick in delinquencies in recent months,” said Tom McGee, CEO of the International Council of Shopping Centers.

A debt is considered delinquent when a borrower misses a full billing cycle without making a payment, or what’s considered 30 days past due. That can damage your credit score and impact the interest rate you’ll pay for credit cards, car loans and mortgages — or whether you’ll get a loan at all.

Some of the best ways to improve your credit standing come down to paying your bills on time every month, and in full, if possible, Dvorkin said. “Understand that if you don’t, then whatever you buy, over time, will end up costing you double.”