Connect with us

Personal Finance

Vance, Trump double down on presidential influence on Fed policy

Published

on

Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump speaks during a press conference at his Mar-a-Lago estate on August 08, 2024, in Palm Beach, Florida. 

Joe Raedle | Getty Images

When it comes raising and lowering interest rates, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump says the president should “at least have a say.”

“They’ve gotten it wrong a lot,” Trump said of the Federal Reserve‘s decision-making during a news conference on Thursday at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida. 

“In my case, I made a lot of money, I was very successful, and I think I have a better instinct than, in many cases, people that would be on the Federal Reserve or the chairman,’ Trump said.

Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, the Republican vice presidential nominee, echoed this opinion in a CNN interview that aired on Sunday, saying that interest rate policy “should fundamentally be a political decision.”

More from Personal Finance:
Harris: ‘Building up’ middle class is a defining goal
What Kamala Harris’ latest financial disclosure reveals
The Fed sets the stage for a rate cut. What that means for you

Also over the weekend, Vice President Kamala Harris told reporters in Arizona that she “couldn’t… disagree more strongly” with Trump’s suggestion that the president should have a voice in the central bank’s monetary policy moves.

“The Fed is an independent entity, and as president, I would never interfere in the decisions that the Fed makes,” Harris said.

The president has no direct control over interest rates

As it stands, the president exerts no direct control over interest rates. The Federal Reserve sets interest rates, and it operates independently of the White House.

“While the Fed’s day-to-day operations are intentionally removed from partisan political input to protect the central bank’s integrity, the Fed and its conduct of monetary policy remain democratically accountable,” said Brett House, economics professor at Columbia Business School.

Through the Federal Reserve Act, the legislative and executive branches of the government set the mandate of the Fed to promote maximum employment, keep prices stable and ensure moderate long-term interest rates, House explained.

“If a president wants to change this mandate, they always have the option to marshal support in Congress for an amendment of the act or new legislation,” he added.

A rate cut is coming

Inflation has been a persistent problem since the Covid-19 pandemic, when price increases soared to their highest levels in more than 40 years. The Fed responded with a series of rate hikes to effectively pump the brakes on the economy in an effort to get inflation under control.

The federal funds rate, which sets overnight borrowing costs for banks but also influences consumer borrowing costs, is currently targeted in a range of 5.25% to 5.50%, the result of 11 rate increases between March 2022 and July 2023.

Now, recent economic data indicates that inflation is falling back toward the Fed’s 2% target, paving the way for the central bank to lower its benchmark rate for the first time in years. The personal consumption expenditures price index — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — showed a rise of 2.5% year over year in June. 

Markets have fully priced in the likelihood of at least a quarter percentage point rate cut in September and a strong likelihood that the Fed will lower by a full percentage point by the end of the year.

Once the fed funds rate comes down, consumers may see their borrowing costs start to fall as well.

Trump has a contentious history with the Fed

Trump, who nominated Jerome Powell to head of the nation’s central bank in 2018, has been advocating for lower rates for years. The former president was a fierce critic of the Fed chief and his colleagues while he was in the Oval Office, skirting historical precedent by repeatedly and publicly berating the Fed’s decision-making

During that time, Trump complained that the central bank maintained a fed funds rate that was too high, making it harder for businesses and consumers to borrow and putting the U.S. at an economic disadvantage to countries with lower rates.

Ultimately, though, Trump’s comments had no impact on the Fed’s benchmark.

“Any chairman is going to remain loyal to the Fed’s mandate over any browbeating from the White House,” House said. 

Now, however, Trump has cautioned against the Fed lowering rates shortly before the presidential election in November.

Trump told Bloomberg Businessweek in an interview in July that cutting rates in September, just weeks ahead of the election is “something that [central bank officials] know they shouldn’t be doing.”

Earlier this year, the former president also told Fox Business that he would not reappoint Powell to lead the Fed.

“I think he’s political,” Trump said. “I think he’s going to do something to probably help the Democrats, I think, if he lowers interest rates.”

Fed Chair Powell: We are a non-political agency, don't want to be involved in politics in any way

When asked about these comments during a press conference after the FOMC meeting last month, Powell underscored the Fed’s singular focus on the economy.

“We don’t change anything in our approach to address other factors like the political calendar,” Powell said. “We never use our tools to support or oppose a political party, a politician or any political outcome.”

According to Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com, “the Fed’s independence will remain paramount — regardless of who is president.”

A ‘consequential year’ for monetary policy

The central bank is an independent agency that governs decisions about monetary policy without interference from the president or any branch of government. Therefore, it is theoretically free from political pressure.

Still, the stakes are high in 2024.

In January, Fed Chair Powell said at a press conference that this was going to be “a highly consequential year for, for the Fed and for monetary policy.”

In the months that followed, signs of economic growth and cooling inflation laid the groundwork for a widely anticipated rate cut, which is welcome news for Americans struggling to keep up with sky-high interest charges.

After July’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting, Powell said that central bankers would cut rates as soon as September, if the economic data supports it.

How the Fed adjusts policy during election years

In previous presidential election years, the Fed has maintained its charted course through the election, whether that was tightening as in 2004, cutting in 2008 or remaining on hold as in 1996, 2012 and 2020, according to a research report by Wells Fargo released in February.

Further, since 1994, the Fed adjusted its policy rate roughly the same number of times in presidential election years as in non-election years, the report said.

A separate research note by Barclays also found “no compelling statistical evidence that Federal Reserve policy is conducted differently during presidential elections.”

The Fed probably should have cut rates this week, strategist says

Continue Reading

Personal Finance

Why your paycheck is slightly bigger

Published

on

Simpleimages | Moment | Getty Images

Why your take-home pay could be higher

If you’re starting 2025 with similar wages to 2024, your take-home pay — or compensation after taxes and benefit deductions — could be a little higher, depending on your withholdings, according to Long.

“When all the tax brackets go up, but your salary stays the same, relatively, that puts you on a lower rung of the ladder,” he said.

The federal income tax brackets show how much you owe on each part of your “taxable income,” which you calculate by subtracting the greater of the standard or itemized deductions from your adjusted gross income.

“Even if you make a little more than last year, you could actually pay less in tax in 2025 compared to 2024,” because the standard deduction also increased, Long said. 

For 2025, the standard deduction increases to $30,000 for married couples filing jointly, up from $29,200 in 2024. The tax break is also larger for single filers, who can claim $15,000 in 2025, a bump from $14,600.  

‘It ends up nearly balancing out’

Tax Tip: 401(K) limits for 2025

Continue Reading

Personal Finance

Student loan payments could lead to a tax break

Published

on

Damircudic | E+ | Getty Images

There’s one upside to your student loan payments: They might reduce your 2024 tax bill.

The student loan interest deduction allows qualifying borrowers to deduct up to $2,500 a year in interest paid on eligible private or federal education debt. Before the Covid pandemic, nearly 13 million taxpayers took advantage of the deduction, according to higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz.

Most borrowers couldn’t claim the deduction on federal student loans during the pandemic-era pause on student loan bills, which spanned from March 2020 to October 2023. With interest rates on those debts temporarily set to zero, there was no interest accruing for borrowers to claim.

More from Personal Finance:
Maximize your 401(k) plan in 2025 with higher limits and catch-up contributions
Here are changes retirees will see from Social Security and Medicare in 2025
Biden withdrew student loan forgiveness plans. There is still debt relief available

But interest on federal student loans began accruing again in September of 2023, and the first post-pause payments were due in October of that year.

By now, borrowers could again have interest to claim for the full tax year’s worth of payments, experts said.

“All borrowers should explore whether they qualify for the deduction as it can reduce their tax liability,” said Betsy Mayotte, president of The Institute of Student Loan Advisors, a nonprofit that helps borrowers navigate the repayment of their debt.

Student loan interest deduction worth up to $550

The student loan interest deduction is “above the line,” meaning you don’t need to itemize your taxes to claim it.

Your lender or student loan servicer reports your interest payments for the tax year to the IRS on a tax form called a 1098-E, and should provide you with a copy, too.

If you don’t receive the form, you should be able to get it from your servicer.

Depending on your tax bracket and how much interest you paid, the student loan interest deduction could be worth up to $550 a year, Kantrowitz said.

There are income limits, however. For 2024, the deduction starts to phase out for individuals with a modified adjusted gross income of $80,000, and those with a MAGI of $95,000 or more are not eligible at all. For married couples filing jointly, the phaseout begins at $165,000, and those with a MAGI of $195,000 or more are ineligible.

Continue Reading

Personal Finance

Op-ed: Here’s why estate planning is a gift for your family

Published

on

Estate planning isn’t about focusing on your demise, one advisor says; it’s about taking control and making decisions that ensure your loved ones are cared for.

Continue Reading

Trending