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Vance, Trump double down on presidential influence on Fed policy

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Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump speaks during a press conference at his Mar-a-Lago estate on August 08, 2024, in Palm Beach, Florida. 

Joe Raedle | Getty Images

When it comes raising and lowering interest rates, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump says the president should “at least have a say.”

“They’ve gotten it wrong a lot,” Trump said of the Federal Reserve‘s decision-making during a news conference on Thursday at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida. 

“In my case, I made a lot of money, I was very successful, and I think I have a better instinct than, in many cases, people that would be on the Federal Reserve or the chairman,’ Trump said.

Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, the Republican vice presidential nominee, echoed this opinion in a CNN interview that aired on Sunday, saying that interest rate policy “should fundamentally be a political decision.”

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Also over the weekend, Vice President Kamala Harris told reporters in Arizona that she “couldn’t… disagree more strongly” with Trump’s suggestion that the president should have a voice in the central bank’s monetary policy moves.

“The Fed is an independent entity, and as president, I would never interfere in the decisions that the Fed makes,” Harris said.

The president has no direct control over interest rates

As it stands, the president exerts no direct control over interest rates. The Federal Reserve sets interest rates, and it operates independently of the White House.

“While the Fed’s day-to-day operations are intentionally removed from partisan political input to protect the central bank’s integrity, the Fed and its conduct of monetary policy remain democratically accountable,” said Brett House, economics professor at Columbia Business School.

Through the Federal Reserve Act, the legislative and executive branches of the government set the mandate of the Fed to promote maximum employment, keep prices stable and ensure moderate long-term interest rates, House explained.

“If a president wants to change this mandate, they always have the option to marshal support in Congress for an amendment of the act or new legislation,” he added.

A rate cut is coming

Inflation has been a persistent problem since the Covid-19 pandemic, when price increases soared to their highest levels in more than 40 years. The Fed responded with a series of rate hikes to effectively pump the brakes on the economy in an effort to get inflation under control.

The federal funds rate, which sets overnight borrowing costs for banks but also influences consumer borrowing costs, is currently targeted in a range of 5.25% to 5.50%, the result of 11 rate increases between March 2022 and July 2023.

Now, recent economic data indicates that inflation is falling back toward the Fed’s 2% target, paving the way for the central bank to lower its benchmark rate for the first time in years. The personal consumption expenditures price index — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — showed a rise of 2.5% year over year in June. 

Markets have fully priced in the likelihood of at least a quarter percentage point rate cut in September and a strong likelihood that the Fed will lower by a full percentage point by the end of the year.

Once the fed funds rate comes down, consumers may see their borrowing costs start to fall as well.

Trump has a contentious history with the Fed

Trump, who nominated Jerome Powell to head of the nation’s central bank in 2018, has been advocating for lower rates for years. The former president was a fierce critic of the Fed chief and his colleagues while he was in the Oval Office, skirting historical precedent by repeatedly and publicly berating the Fed’s decision-making

During that time, Trump complained that the central bank maintained a fed funds rate that was too high, making it harder for businesses and consumers to borrow and putting the U.S. at an economic disadvantage to countries with lower rates.

Ultimately, though, Trump’s comments had no impact on the Fed’s benchmark.

“Any chairman is going to remain loyal to the Fed’s mandate over any browbeating from the White House,” House said. 

Now, however, Trump has cautioned against the Fed lowering rates shortly before the presidential election in November.

Trump told Bloomberg Businessweek in an interview in July that cutting rates in September, just weeks ahead of the election is “something that [central bank officials] know they shouldn’t be doing.”

Earlier this year, the former president also told Fox Business that he would not reappoint Powell to lead the Fed.

“I think he’s political,” Trump said. “I think he’s going to do something to probably help the Democrats, I think, if he lowers interest rates.”

Fed Chair Powell: We are a non-political agency, don't want to be involved in politics in any way

When asked about these comments during a press conference after the FOMC meeting last month, Powell underscored the Fed’s singular focus on the economy.

“We don’t change anything in our approach to address other factors like the political calendar,” Powell said. “We never use our tools to support or oppose a political party, a politician or any political outcome.”

According to Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com, “the Fed’s independence will remain paramount — regardless of who is president.”

A ‘consequential year’ for monetary policy

The central bank is an independent agency that governs decisions about monetary policy without interference from the president or any branch of government. Therefore, it is theoretically free from political pressure.

Still, the stakes are high in 2024.

In January, Fed Chair Powell said at a press conference that this was going to be “a highly consequential year for, for the Fed and for monetary policy.”

In the months that followed, signs of economic growth and cooling inflation laid the groundwork for a widely anticipated rate cut, which is welcome news for Americans struggling to keep up with sky-high interest charges.

After July’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting, Powell said that central bankers would cut rates as soon as September, if the economic data supports it.

How the Fed adjusts policy during election years

In previous presidential election years, the Fed has maintained its charted course through the election, whether that was tightening as in 2004, cutting in 2008 or remaining on hold as in 1996, 2012 and 2020, according to a research report by Wells Fargo released in February.

Further, since 1994, the Fed adjusted its policy rate roughly the same number of times in presidential election years as in non-election years, the report said.

A separate research note by Barclays also found “no compelling statistical evidence that Federal Reserve policy is conducted differently during presidential elections.”

The Fed probably should have cut rates this week, strategist says

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Majority of Americans are financially stressed from tariff turmoil: CNBC survey

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73% of Americans are financially stressed

Americans are growing increasingly uneasy about the state of the U.S. economy and their own personal financial situation in the face of stubborn inflation and tariff wars.

To that point, 73% of respondents said they are “financially stressed,” with 66% of that group pointing to the tariff wars as a main source, according to a new CNBC/Survey Monkey online poll.

The survey of 4,200 U.S. adults was conducted April 3 to 7.

Americans feeling financially stressed

CNBC/Survey Monkey polls from 2023, 2024, and this year have found that, on average, more than 70% of Americans said that they are stressed about their personal finances. This year’s survey found that 38% of respondents overall said they are “very stressed,” and 29% of high-earners with incomes of $100,000 or more also shared that sentiment.

Consumers are, of course, increasingly stressed by rising prices for essentials like food, energy, and shelter. This is due to a number of factors, including rising inflation, supply chain disruptions and geopolitical events.

In the new CNBC survey, 86% of Americans cite inflation as the top reason for their financial stress, while 75% pointed to interest rates and 66% cited tariffs. 

While inflation peaked at 8% in 2022, a 40-year high, it has since cooled significantly, reaching 2.4% in March. Despite this decline, the increased prices during 2022 have led to a loss of purchasing power for Americans, meaning they can buy less with the same amount of money than before.

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It would take nearly $114 today to buy what would have cost $100 in January of 2022, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

And while Inflation has eased, experts do say the fallout from President Trump’s trade war threatens to put upward pressure on prices in the months to come.

Tariffs are generally considered to be inflationary, economists say. This is because tariffs increase the cost of imported goods, which can then be passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices. This can lead to a temporary increase in the overall inflation rate.

“We know that tariffs are inflationary,” said David McWilliams, an economist, podcaster and author. “We know that’s hitting on people’s expectations of how much money they’re going to have in their pocket in a couple of months time.”

So, when it comes to financial stress caused by tariffs, 59% of those surveyed by CNBC oppose President Trump’s tariff policy, with 72% concerned about the impact on their personal financial situation.

As a result, 32% said they have delayed or avoided making retail purchases, and 15% said they have “stocked up.”

What’s more, 34% of those surveyed said they have made changes to their investments due to recent stock market volatility from tariffs.

Managing your money through volatility

Handling financial stress

Many investors are concerned about their retirement savings, but financial experts say it’s important for those with a long-term perspective to understand that short-term market volatility is a distraction that’s better off ignored.

“The biggest thing is that it’s unknown, and when we don’t know things, and we can’t control things, that’s when our anxiety and our worry can spike, and it’s contagious,” said licensed therapist and executive coach George James, CNBC Global Financial Wellness Advisory Board member, a licensed therapist and executive coach.

While the market could be in for a bumpy ride over the next few months, experts say it’s best to stay the course and avoid making major portfolio changes based on the latest news.

To manage investments during the latest tariff volatility, for example, financial advisors urge investors to maintain a long-term perspective, review and potentially adjust their asset allocation, and consider diversification to mitigate risk. It’s also smart to bolster emergency funds, review your risk tolerance, and explore opportunities for tax-loss harvesting.

Financial experts also urge investors to focus on their risk appetite — and their goals.

“This is the time to evaluate short-, mid-, and long-term financial needs, concerns, and goals. Evaluation before action or inaction is essential,” said Michael Liersch, head of advice and planning at Wells Fargo, said in an e-mail to CNBC. “Getting specific on exact dollar targets, timelines around these targets, and their level of importance [priority] can create clarity around what should be done, if anything.”

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What advisors are telling their clients after the bond market sell-off

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Hinterhaus Productions | Getty Images

As investors digest the latest bond market sell-off, advisors have tips about portfolio allocation amid continued market volatility.

Typically, investors flock to fixed income like U.S. Treasurys when there’s economic turmoil. The opposite happened this week with a sharp sell-off of U.S. government bonds, which dropped bond prices as yields soared. Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions. 

Treasury yields then retreated Wednesday afternoon when President Donald Trump temporarily dropped tariffs to 10% for most countries but increased levies on Chinese goods. That duty now stands at 145%.

As of Thursday afternoon, Treasury yields were down slightly.

Still, “there’s a massive amount of uncertainty,” Kent Smetters, a professor of business economics and public policy at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, told CNBC.

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Experts closely watch the 10-year Treasury yield because it’s tied to borrowing rates for products like mortgages, credit cards and auto loans. The yield climbed above 4.5% overnight on Tuesday as investors offloaded the asset. As of Thursday afternoon, the 10-year Treasury yield was around 4.4%.

Kevin Hassett, director of the U.S. National Economic Council, told CNBC on Thursday that bond market volatility likely added “a little more urgency” to Trump’s tariff decision. 

As some investors question their bond allocations, here’s what advisors are telling their clients.

Take the ‘proactive approach’

Despite the latest bond market sell-off, there hasn’t been a recent shift in client portfolios for certified financial planner Lee Baker, owner of Apex Financial Services in Atlanta. 

“I’ve been taking a proactive approach” by shifting allocations early based on the threat of future tariffs, said Baker, who is also a member of CNBC’s Financial Advisor Council.

With concerns about future inflation triggered by tariffs, Baker has increased client allocations of Treasury inflation-protected securities, or TIPS, which can provide a hedge against rising prices.

Consider ‘guardrails’

Ivory Johnson, a CFP and founder of Delancey Wealth Management in Washington, D.C., has also been defensive with client portfolios. 

“I’ve used instruments to give me guardrails,” such as buffer exchange-traded funds to limit losses while capping upside potential, said Johnson, who is also a member of CNBC’s FA Council.

Buffer ETFs use options contracts to provide a pre-defined range of outcomes over a set period. The funds are tied to an underlying index, such as the S&P 500. These assets typically have higher fees than traditional ETFs.

Seeking safety amid market volatility: Strategies to keep your money safe

Take a ‘temperature check’

With future stock market volatility expected, investors should revisit risk tolerance and portfolio allocations, Baker said. 

“This is a good time for a temperature check,” he said.

Market turmoil has happened before and will happen again. If you can’t stomach the latest drawdowns — in stocks or bonds — this is a chance to shift to more conservative holdings, Baker said. 

“We’re not selling because I’m concerned about the market,” he added. “I’m concerned about comfort level.”

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Social Security COLA projected to be lower in 2026. Tariffs may change that

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The Social Security cost-of-living adjustment for 2026 is projected to be the lowest increase that millions of beneficiaries have seen in recent years.

This could change, however, due to potential inflationary pressures from tariffs. 

Recent estimates for the 2026 COLA, based latest government inflation data, place the adjustment to be around 2.2% to 2.3%, which are below the 2.5% increase that went into effect in 2025.

The COLA for 2026 may be 2.2%, estimates Mary Johnson, an independent Social Security and Medicare analyst. Meanwhile, the Senior Citizens League, a nonpartisan senior group, estimates next year’s adjustment could be 2.3%.

If either estimate were to go into effect, the COLA for 2026 would be the lowest increase since 2021, when beneficiaries saw a 1.3% increase.

As the Covid pandemic prompted inflation to rise, the Social Security cost-of-living adjustments rose to four-decade highs. In 2022, the COLA was 5.9%, followed by 8.7% in 2023 and 3.2% in 2024.

The 2.5% COLA for 2025, while the lowest in recent years, is closer to the 2.6% average for the annual benefit bumps over the past 20 years, according to the Senior Citizens League.

To be sure, the estimates for the 2026 COLA are indeed preliminary and subject to change, experts say.

The Social Security Administration determines the annual COLA based on third-quarter data for Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W.

New government inflation data released on Thursday shows the CPI-W has increased 2.2% over the past 12 months. As such, the 2.5% COLA is currently outpacing inflation.

Yet that may not last depending on whether the Trump administration’s plans for tariffs go into effect. Trump announced on Wednesday that tariff rates for many countries will be dropped to 10% for 90 days to allow more time for negotiations.

Tariffs may affect 2026 Social Security COLA

If the tariffs are implemented as planned, economists expect they will raise consumer prices, which may prompt a higher Social Security cost-of-living adjustment for 2026 than currently projected.

“We could see the effect of inflation in the coming months, and it could very well be by the third quarter,” Johnson said.

If that happens, the 2026 COLA could go up to 2.5% or higher, she said.

Retirees are already struggling with higher costs for day-to-day items like eggs, according to the Senior Citizens League. Meanwhile, new tariff policies may keep food prices high and increase the costs of prescription drugs, medical equipment and auto insurance, according to the senior group.

Most seniors do not feel Social Security’s annual cost-of-living adjustments keep up with the economic realities of the inflation they personally experience, the Senior Citizens League’s polls have found, according to Alex Moore, a statistician at the senior group.

“Seniors generally feel that that the inflation they experience is higher than the inflation reported by the CPI-W,” Moore said.

When costs are poised to go up and the economic outlook is uncertain, seniors may be more likely to feel financial stress because their resources are more fixed and stabilized, he said.

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