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Atlanta Fed President Bostic says officials can’t wait for inflation to hit 2% before cutting

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speaking at Jackson Hole on August 23, 2024.  

David A. Grogan | CNBC

Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic signaled Wednesday that he is ready to start lowering interest rates even though inflation is still running above the central bank’s target.

Previously one of the more hawkish policymakers, or in favor of tighter policy to fight inflation, Bostic noted that his focus is shifting more toward the employment side of the Fed’s mandate as signs increase of labor market softening.

“I believe we cannot wait until inflation has actually fallen all the way to 2 percent to begin removing restriction because that would risk labor market disruptions that could inflict unnecessary pain and suffering,” he wrote in a message posted on the Atlanta Fed’s website.

The Fed’s preferred measure showed inflation running at a 2.5% rate in July, and just a slightly higher 2.6% core rate when excluding food and energy. Bostic did not specify how much or when he thinks the Fed should start easing.

However, the missive comes with markets already widely expecting the central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee to cut its benchmark borrowing rate by at least a quarter percentage point when it meets Sept. 17-18.

As an FOMC voting member this year, Bostic’s views carry extra weight and add another level of assurance that the Fed will enact its first easing since the emergency measures it took more than four years ago in the early days of the Covid crisis.

His comments also come two days before what is expected to be a pivotal nonfarm payrolls report as most economists see the labor market losing momentum. Bostic said his experiences with business leaders in the Atlanta area reflect that concern.

“Rest assured, I do not sense a looming crash or panic among business contacts. However, the data and our grassroots feedback describe an economy and labor market losing momentum,” he said. “The upside to this is that the slowdown in activity is feeding a continuing, welcome decline in the pace of inflation.”

Indeed, he cited multiple factors indicating that inflation is progressing convincingly back to the Fed’s target as the labor market moderates.

“Given the circumstances before us — eroding pricing power and a cooling labor market — I’ve rebalanced my focus toward both sides of the dual mandate for the first time since early 2021,” he said.

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Economics

UK inflation September 2024

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The Canary Wharf business district is seen in the distance behind autumnal leaves on October 09, 2024 in London, United Kingdom.

Dan Kitwood | Getty Images News | Getty Images

LONDON — Inflation in the U.K. dropped sharply to 1.7% in September, the Office for National Statistics said Wednesday.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected the headline rate to come in at a higher 1.9% for the month, in the first dip of the print below the Bank of England’s 2% target since April 2021.

Inflation has been hovering around that level for the last four months, and came in at 2.2% in August.

Core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, came in at 3.2% for the month, down from 3.6% in August and below the 3.4% forecast of a Reuters poll.

Price rises in the services sector, the dominant portion of the U.K. economy, eased significantly to 4.9% last month from 5.6% in August, now hitting its lowest rate since May 2022.

Core and services inflation are key watch points for Bank of England policymakers as they mull whether to cut interest rates again at their November meeting.

As of Wednesday morning, market pricing put an 80% probability on a November rate cut ahead of the latest inflation print. Analysts on Tuesday said lower wage growth reported by the ONS this week had supported the case for a cut. The BOE reduced its key rate by 25 basis points in August before holding in September.

Within the broader European region, inflation in the euro zone dipped below the European Central Bank’s 2% target last month, hitting 1.8%, according to the latest data.

This is a breaking news story and will be updated shortly.

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Why Larry Hogan’s long-odds bid for a Senate seat matters

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FEW REPUBLICAN politicians differ more from Donald Trump than Larry Hogan, the GOP Senate candidate in Maryland. Consider the contrasts between a Trump rally and a Hogan event. Whereas Mr Trump prefers to take the stage and riff in front of packed arenas, Mr Hogan spent a recent Friday night chatting with locals at a waterfront wedding venue in Baltimore County. Mr Hogan’s stump speech, at around ten minutes, felt as long as a single off-script Trump tangent. Mr Trump delights in defying his advisers; Mr Hogan fastidiously sticks to talking points about bipartisanship, good governance and overcoming tough odds. Put another way, Mr Hogan’s campaign is something Mr Trump is rarely accused of being: boring. But it is intriguing.

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Polarisation by education is remaking American politics

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DEPENDING ON where exactly you find yourself, western Pennsylvania can feel Appalachian, Midwestern, booming or downtrodden. No matter where, however, this part of the state feels like the centre of the American political universe. Since she became the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, Kamala Harris has visited Western Pennsylvania six times—more often than Philadelphia, on the other side of the state. She will mark her seventh on a trip on October 14th, to the small city of Erie, where Donald Trump also held a rally recently. Democratic grandees flit through Pittsburgh regularly. It is where Ms Harris chose to unveil the details of her economic agenda, and it is where Barack Obama visited on October 10th to deliver encouragement and mild chastisement. “Do not just sit back and hope for the best,” he admonished. “Get off your couch and vote.”

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