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S&P 500 earnings hinge on Trump, Harris tax plans, Goldman says

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Tax policies touted in the U.S. presidential election could have a big impact on S&P 500 earnings, according to Goldman Sachs Inc. strategists.

They estimate profits could shift in the ballpark range of 5% to 10%, depending on how the policies are enacted and whether Donald Trump’s 2017 tax cuts are allowed to expire, the team including Ben Snider and David Kostin wrote in a note dated Sept. 4.

While Republican nominee Trump’s proposals would likely boost earnings, those floated by his Democratic opponent Kamala Harris would have the opposite effect, the strategists said. But they noted that both candidates’ tax pledges would face hurdles to get enacted.

Trump’s promise to cut the federal corporate tax rate to 15% from 21% would raise S&P 500 earnings by about 4%, the strategists wrote. Harris’ proposal to lift the rate to 28% would reduce earnings by about 5%, they said, while changes to the taxation of foreign income and an increase in the alternative minimum tax rate would cut earnings by about 8%.

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Traders work in the S&P options pit at the Cboe Global Markets exchange in Chicago.

Alex Wroblewski/Bloomberg

In addition, the extension or expiry of the tax cuts enacted by the Trump administration in 2017 would shift S&P 500 earnings by as much as 2%, they said.

“These sensitivities only reflect the direct impact of changing tax policy and do not take into account secondary impacts, such as through changes in economic activity,” the strategists wrote. And they added a caveat: “Prediction markets show a substantial probability that the next U.S. president will not have control over Congress, and campaign proposals do not always translate into legislative reality.”

Trump and running mate JD Vance are campaigning on a grab bag of tax cut proposals that could collectively cost as much as $10.5 trillion over a decade, more than the combined budgets of every domestic federal agency. Harris has also called for some tax cuts — like exempting tips from taxation and expanding the child tax credit — that would cost roughly $2 trillion and be paid for through increased taxes on corporations and wealthy individuals.

The 2017 Trump tax overhaul boosted earnings-per-share for S&P 500 companies by 12% the following year, and resulted in a rally in the index of about 10%. Still, this time round it is likely that “most investors will wait for legislative clarity before fully adjusting portfolios to reflect any changes in tax policy,” the Goldman strategists wrote.

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Acting IRS commissioner reportedly replaced

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Gary Shapley, who was named only days ago as the acting commissioner of the Internal Revenue Service, is reportedly being replaced by Deputy Treasury Secretary Michael Faulkender amid a power struggle between Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Elon Musk.

The New York Times reported that Bessent was outraged that Shapley was named to head the IRS without his knowledge or approval and complained to President Trump about it. Shapley was installed as acting commissioner on Tuesday, only to be ousted on Friday. He first gained prominence as an IRS Criminal Investigation special agent and whistleblower who testified in 2023 before the House Oversight Committee that then-President Joe Biden’s son Hunter received preferential treatment during a tax-evasion investigation, and he and another special agent had been removed from the investigation after complaining to their supervisors in 2022. He was promoted last month to senior advisor to Bessent and made deputy chief of IRS Criminal Investigation. Shapley is expected to remain now as a senior official at IRS Criminal Investigation, according to the Wall Street Journal. The IRS and the Treasury Department press offices did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Faulkender was confirmed last month as deputy secretary at the Treasury Department and formerly worked during the first Trump administration at the Treasury on the Paycheck Protection Program before leaving to teach finance at the University of Maryland.

Faulkender will be the fifth head of the IRS this year. Former IRS commissioner Danny Werfel departed in January, on Inauguration Day, after Trump announced in December he planned to name former Congressman Billy Long, R-Missouri, as the next IRS commissioner, even though Werfel’s term wasn’t scheduled to end until November 2027. The Senate has not yet scheduled a confirmation hearing for Long, amid questions from Senate Democrats about his work promoting the Employee Retention Credit and so-called “tribal tax credits.” The job of acting commissioner has since been filled by Douglas O’Donnell, who was deputy commissioner under Werfel. However, O’Donnell abruptly retired as the IRS came under pressure to lay off thousands of employees and share access to confidential taxpayer data. He was replaced by IRS chief operating officer Melanie Krause, who resigned last week after coming under similar pressure to provide taxpayer data to immigration authorities and employees of the Musk-led U.S. DOGE Service. 

Krause had planned to depart later this month under the deferred resignation program at the IRS, under which approximately 22,000 IRS employees have accepted the voluntary buyout offers. But Musk reportedly pushed to have Shapley installed on Tuesday, according to the Times, and he remained working in the commissioner’s office as recently as Friday morning. Meanwhile, plans are underway for further reductions in the IRS workforce of up to 40%, according to the Federal News Network, taking the IRS from approximately 102,000 employees at the beginning of the year to around 60,000 to 70,000 employees.

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On the move: EY names San Antonio office MP

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Carr, Riggs & Ingram appoints CFO and chief legal officer; TSCPA hosts accounting bootcamp; and more news from across the profession.

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Tech news: Certinia announces spring release

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Certinia announces spring release; Intuit acquires tech and experts from fintech Deserve; Paystand launches feature to navigate tariffs; and other accounting tech news and updates.

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