As the summer holidays end, investors in China are coming to accept that consumption and growth will remain sluggish for a while. JPMorgan on Wednesday was the latest firm to downgrade its opinion on Chinese stocks to neutral from overweight, “due to a challenging outlook,” a team led by emerging markets equity strategist Pedro Martins said. Instead, JPMorgan increased its overweight recommendations on other emerging markets. Even after the change, JPMorgan still holds 18 China stocks in its global emerging markets model portfolio. “We keep our preference for select Internet names on [growth at a reasonable price] and rising shareholder return basis, and AI thematic plays once the current consolidation completes,” the analysts said. “Consumption and Real Estate sectors remain marred by domestic concerns with few bottom-up stock picking opportunities.” Chinese policymakers have acknowledged softness in domestic demand, but have yet to take meaningful action to boost consumer sentiment. The JPMorgan analysts said uncertainties about the China economic outlook range from tensions with the U.S. to “lingering deflation pressure.” In contrast to the U.S., consumer prices in China have barely risen in the last year, dragged down by the real estate slump and worries about future income. China’s consumer price index for August, due out 9:30 p.m. Sunday Eastern time, is expected to have risen just 0.7% on an annual basis , according to analysts polled by Reuters. JPMorgan’s downgrade follows Nomura’s demotion of MSCI China to neutral, from overweight, late last month. ‘Consistent disappointments’ “There has been consistent disappointments in the form of lack of meaningful measures to support the economy and the property sector while the economy remains at best ‘tepid,'” a team led by Nomura’s Asia ex-Japan equity strategist Chetan Seth said in an Aug. 25 report. “We are concerned that U.S. elections are likely to prove to be an overhang for the market,” the Nomura analysts added. The analysts noted attractive valuations and the possibility of short-term rallies spurred by stimulus expectations as reasons why they didn’t cut China stocks to an underweight rating altogether. U.S.-China relations have stabilized in the last year, but analysts cite uncertainty around the U.S. presidential election in November as a reason why Beijing has held off on domestic stimulus. U.S. national security advisor Jake Sullivan visited Beijing in late August for three days of official meetings during which he said Vice President Kamala Harris shared President Joe Biden’s view that maintaining high-level communication is the way to responsibly manage the bilateral relationship . Harris and former President Donald Trump are set to debate on Tuesday. During three periods of escalating U.S.-China trade tensions in 2018 and 2019, the MSCI China index fell each time, according to JPMorgan China Equity Strategist Wendy Liu. But she found China’s utilities sector outperformed, showing an average return of 12.8%. As part of its China stock downgrade, JPMorgan added shares of state-owned utility operator CR Gas , while removing shares of PDD, China Construction Bank and Kingdee International. The bank’s updated global emerging markets model portfolio includes internet-related names Alibaba , Tencent , Kuaishou Technology and Meituan – all of which are individually rated overweight by JPMorgan. Only one But when it comes to what JPMorgan calls its emerging markets growth and value picks, only one Chinese stock makes both lists: Hong Kong-listed short video company Kuaishou . The video app, a smaller rival to TikTok owner ByteDance, reported revenue and earnings for the second quarter that beat analysts’ expectations, according to FactSet. Average daily active users rose to 395.3 million, up from 376 million a year ago. JPMorgan has a price target of 65 Hong Kong dollars on Kuaishou, implying upside of more than 60% from Thursday’s close. The stock is down more than 20% for the year thus far. The Wall Street investment bank selects its value stock picks based on cash flow and upside potential, and growth stocks by their historical and expected sales increases. —CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
Pedestrians walk outside a Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA bank branch in Milan, Italy.
Alessia Pierdomenico | Getty Images
Siena, ITALY — Monte dei Paschi di Siena is holding firm on its plans to acquire Mediobanca for 13 billion euros ($14.3 billion) despite ongoing market turbulence, telling CNBC it will complete the deal in July.
The world’s oldest bank still in operation, surprised investors in January by making an all-share offer for Mediobanca, a prestigious institution focused on wealth management and investment banking. Mediobanca has rejected the proposal, denouncing it as a “destructive” move that is devoid of financial rationale.
Monte dei Paschi has faced several challenges over the years, most notably when it was bailed out by the Italian government in 2017 after it failed to raise much-needed cash from private investors. The Italian government has sold its majority stake in Monte dei Paschi and it currently represents less than 12% of ownership.
The bank’s CEO Luigi Lovaglio told CNBC on Monday that Monte dei Paschi “is back” and “in control of our destiny.”
When asked if the ongoing market turbulence could be a problem for its expansion plans, Lovaglio said: “The [market] situation will not impact our deal.”
“On the opposite, [the market situation] is confirming that size matters, [it] is confirming that you need to diversify on revenues,” he said, adding that if they were already a combined entity, they would “be stronger” and “have capability to react much quicker.”
The recent market volatility has led some companies to put some deals on hold. British private equity firm 3i Group Plc has reportedly postponed a sale of the maker of pet food MPM, while fintech company Klarna has put its IPO plans on hold.
Analysts have been divided over the benefits of the deal between Monte dei Paschi and Mediobanca. Deutsche Bank, for instance, said in mid-March the market was ignoring some potential opportunities for Monte dei Paschi, including a bigger distribution policy.
Other analysts warned about limited synergies in combining two different banks. Barclays, for example, said Monday that it was cutting its price target for Monte dei Paschi, taking a more skeptical view on the potential gains from a deal with Mediobanca. “Should Monte dei Paschi decide to spend more to convince majority of the Mediobanca institutional shareholders, the excess capital could reduce,” Barclays said.
Speaking to CNBC, Lovaglio was adamant the offer for Mediobanca presents a “fair price” and did not comment on whether the company would sweeten the deal to make it more appealing for Mediobanca shareholders.
“Hopefully within July, we can complete the deal,” he added.
Amid a pullback in global equity markets on Monday, Monte dei Paschi and Mediobanca shares both closed around 5% lower. Since Monte dei Paschi announced its intention to buy Mediobanca on January 24, the latter’s shares have lost about 14% of their value and the former about 8.5%.
Larger Ambitions
Monte dei Paschi’s offer for Mediobanca came at a time of wider consolidation efforts in Italian banking. UniCredit announced last year an offer to buy rival Banco BPM for about 10 billion euros.
Lovaglio said these bids represent the first wave of domestic consolidation for Italian banks.
“I believe this is the first phase [of consolidation] and, probably, we will have a second phase two years from now. That’s why, by combining Monte [dei] Paschi with Mediobanca, we will be in a position to be again a protagonist,” Lovaglio said.
Steve Eisman of “The Big Short” fame has a message for investors: Don’t be a hero because there’s more market downside ahead. Eisman, who’s known for successfully betting against the housing market ahead of the 2008 financial crisis, warns Wall Street isn’t done discounting worst-case scenarios tied to President Donald Trump’s tariffs. “The issue is that everybody of our social class took Econ 101, and we were all taught the same thing: Trade good, tariffs bad, trade war terrible,” the former Neuberger Berman senior portfolio manager told CNBC’s “Fast Money ” on Monday. “Now, you have a president of the United States who doesn’t seem to accept that paradigm, and people find that extremely jarring.” But Eisman, who launched the “The Eisman Playbook” podcast this month, doubts the current trade situation will turn into ” tariff Armageddon .” “If countries are rational, Canada and Mexico would come to the United States and basically beg, ‘We’ll do what you want.’… Those two countries hold no cards. Now, Europe is not much better,” he said. “If reasonable heads prevail, Trump will get pretty much what he wants.” On Monday, the Dow saw its largest intraday swing on record — swinging 2,595 points. At the day’s low, it was off 1,703 points. The Dow ultimately lost 349 points and the Nasdaq Composite squeezed out a 0.1% gain. Meanwhile, the S & P 500 fell 0.2%. ‘I’m long only. I’ve lost plenty.’ “There’s the people in the markets who are upset that they have lost money,” said Eisman. “I’m not going to kid you. I’m one of those people. I’m long only. I’ve lost plenty.” He prefers to look at the bigger picture — particularly those who have gotten hurt by free trade. “GDP is not just a number. It’s people. If you’ve traveled parts of this country like I have and you go through the Midwest and parts of the South, it doesn’t look so good.” noted Eisman. “[President] Clinton ushered in with [North American Free Trade Agreement] and the [World Trade Organization] a massive bull market that everybody around this table including me has benefited enormously from. But not everybody in the country has benefited, and what is being proposed here is to benefit those people.” Eisman thinks Wall Street should have seen President Trump’s tariff policy coming. “He has told you that he was going to do this for years, and now he has gone and done it,” Eisman added. “Everybody is shocked that he fulfilled his promise. They didn’t take him seriously.” The wildcard, according to Eisman, is politics. “Are politicians going to be rational or not,” he said. ” In a trade war , everybody will suffer. The U.S. will suffer the least.” Disclaimer
Check out the companies making headlines in after-hours trading: Health-care stocks — Shares of Humana , CVS Health and UnitedHealth jumped after The Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump administration will raise payment rates for Medicare insurers next year to 5.06%, higher than the 2.23% increase the Biden administration had proposed. Humana gained more than 13%, while CVS Health and UnitedHealth advanced more than 7% and about 6%, respectively. Levi Strauss — The clothing stock rose more than 1% after the company reported its first-quarter results . Levi Strauss reported adjusted earnings of 38 cents per share, a 52% jump compared to the prior-year period. Revenue of $1.53 billion for the period also marked a 3% jump compared to last year. Greenbrier — Shares of the railcar manufacturer fell 4% on the back of the company dialing back its revenue guidance for the full year. Greenbrier now sees revenue ranging from $3.15 billion to $3.35 billion, compared to previous guidance of $3.35 billion to $3.65 billion. Dave & Buster’s — Shares of the owner and operator of entertainment and dining venues climbed nearly 2% on the heels of its fourth-quarter adjusted earnings, which came in at 69 cents per share. That is above the 67 cents per share that analysts polled by FactSet were expecting. Revenue, however, came in weaker than anticipated, with the company posting $534.5 million for the quarter versus the consensus estimate of $544.7 million. Broadcom — The semiconductor stock moved more than 2% higher following the company’s authorization of a new $10 billion share repurchase program , effective through Dec. 31.
An exterior view of a CVS pharmacy in Danville, Pennsylvania.
Paul Weaver | Lightrocket | Getty Images
Check out the companies making headlines in after-hours trading:
Health-care stocks — Shares of Humana, CVS Health and UnitedHealth jumped after The Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump administration will raise payment rates for Medicare insurers next year to 5.06%, higher than the 2.23% increase the Biden administration had proposed. Humana gained more than 13%, while CVS Health and UnitedHealth advanced more than 7% and about 6%, respectively.
Levi Strauss — The clothing stock rose more than 1% after the company reported its first-quarter results. Levi Strauss reported adjusted earnings of 38 cents per share, a 52% jump compared to the prior-year period. Revenue of $1.53 billion for the period also marked a 3% jump compared to last year.
Greenbrier — Shares of the railcar manufacturer fell 4% on the back of the company dialing back its revenue guidance for the full year. Greenbrier now sees revenue ranging from $3.15 billion to $3.35 billion, compared to previous guidance of $3.35 billion to $3.65 billion.
Dave & Buster’s — Shares of the owner and operator of entertainment and dining venues climbed nearly 2% on the heels of its fourth-quarter adjusted earnings, which came in at 69 cents per share. That is above the 67 cents per share that analysts polled by FactSet were expecting. Revenue, however, came in weaker than anticipated, with the company posting $534.5 million for the quarter versus the consensus estimate of $544.7 million.