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China’s local government debt problems are a hidden drag on economic growth

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Local governments in China are still building highways, bridges and railways, as pictured here in Jiangxi province on Sept. 6, 2024.

Cfoto | Future Publishing | Getty Images

BEIJING — China’s persistent consumption slowdown traces back to the country’s real estate slump, and its deep ties to local government finances — and debt.

The bulk of Chinese household wealth went into real estate in the last two decades, before Beijing began cracking down on developers’ high reliance on debt in 2020.

Now, the values of those properties are falling, and developers have reduced land purchases. That’s cutting significantly into local government revenue, especially at the district and county level, according to S&P Global Ratings analysts.

They predicted that from June of this year, local government finances will take three to five years to recover to a healthy state.

But “delays in revenue recovery could prolong attempts to stabilize debt, which continues to rise,” Wenyin Huang, director at S&P Global Ratings, said in a statement Friday to CNBC.

China will stay in deflation if there is no 'meaningful recovery' in the property sector: ANZ

“Macroeconomic headwinds continue to hinder the revenue-generating power of China’s local governments, particularly as related to taxes and land sales,” she said.

Huang had previously told CNBC that the financial accounts of local governments have suffered from the drop in land sales revenue for at least two or three years, while tax and fee cuts since 2018 have reduced operating revenue by an average of 10% across the country.

This year, local authorities are trying hard to recoup revenue, giving already strained businesses little reason to hire or increase salaries — and adding to consumers’ uncertainty about future income.

Clawing back tax revenue

As officials dig into historical records for potential missteps by businesses and governments, dozens of companies in China disclosed in stock exchange filings this year that they had received notices from local authorities to pay back taxes tied to operations as far back as 1994.

They stated amounts ranging from 10 million yuan to 500 million yuan ($1.41 million to $70.49 million), covering unpaid consumption taxes, undeclared exported goods, late payment fees and other fees.

Even in the relatively affluent eastern province of Zhejiang, NingBo BoHui Chemical Technology said regional tax authorities in March ordered it to repay 300 million yuan ($42.3 million) in revised consumption taxes, as result of a “recategorization” of the aromatics-derivatives extraction equipment it had produced since July 2023.

Jiangsu, Shandong, Shanghai, and Zhejiang — some of China’s top provinces in tax and non-tax revenue generation — see non-tax revenue growth exceeding 15% year-on-year growth in the first half of 2024, S&P’s Huang said. “This reflects the government’s efforts to diversify its revenue streams, particularly as its other major sources of income face increasing challenges.”

The development has caused an uproar online and damaged already fragile business confidence. Since June 2023, the CKGSB Business Conditions Index, a monthly survey of Chinese businesses, has hovered around the 50 level that indicates contraction or expansion. The index fell to 48.6 in August.

Retail sales have only modestly picked up from their slowest levels since the Covid-19 pandemic.

The pressure to recoup taxes from years ago “really shows how desperate they are to find new sources of revenue,” Camille Boullenois, an associate director at Rhodium Group, told CNBC. 

China’s national taxation administration in June acknowledged some local governments had issued such notices but said they were routine measures “in line with law and regulations.”

The administration denied allegations of “nationwide, industrywide, targeted tax inspections,” and said there is no plan to “retrospectively investigate” unpaid taxes. That’s according to CNBC’s translation of Chinese text on the administration’s website.

“Revenue is the key issue that should be improved,” Laura Li, sector lead for S&P Global Ratings’ China infrastructure team, told CNBC earlier this year.

“A lot of government spending is a lot of so-called needed spending,” such as education and civil servant salaries, she said. “They cannot cut down [on it] unlike the expenditure for land development.”

Debate on how to spur growth

A straightforward way to boost revenue is with growth. But as Chinese authorities prioritize efforts to reduce debt levels, it’s been tough to shift policy away from a years-long focus on investment, to growth driven by consumption, analyst reports show.

“What is overlooked is the fact that investment is creating weak nominal GDP growth outcomes —pressuring the corporate sector to reduce its wage bill and leading to a sharp rise in debt ratios,” Morgan Stanley chief Asia economists Chetan Ahya and Robin Xing said in a September report, alongside a team.

“The longer the pivot is delayed, the louder calls will become for easing to prevent a situation where control over inflation and property price expectations is lost,” they said.

The economists pointed out how similar deleveraging efforts from 2012 to 2016 also resulted in a drag on growth, ultimately sending debt-to-GDP ratios higher.

“The same dynamic is playing out in this cycle,” they said. Since 2021, the debt-to-GDP has climbed by almost 30 percentage points to 310% of GDP in the second quarter of 2024 — and is set to climb further to 312% by the end of this year, according to Morgan Stanley.

They added that GDP is expected to rise by 4.5% from a year ago in the third quarter, “moving away” from the official target of around 5% growth.

The ‘grey rhino’ for banks

Major policy changes are tough, especially in China’s rigid state-dominated system.

Underlying the investment-led focus is a complex interconnection of local government-affiliated business entities that have taken on significant levels of debt to fund public infrastructure projects — which often bear limited financial returns.

Known as local government financing vehicles, the sector is a “bigger grey rhino than real estate,” at least for banks, Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief economist for Asia-Pacific at Natixis, said during a webinar last week. “Grey rhino” is a metaphor for high-likelihood and high-impact risks that are being overlooked.

Natixis’ research showed that Chinese banks are more exposed to local government financial vehicle loans than those of real estate developers and mortgages.

“Nobody knows if there is an effective way that can solve this issue quickly,” S&P’s Li said of the LGFV problems.

“What the government’s trying to do is to buy time to solve the most imminent liquidity challenges so that they can still maintain overall stability of the financial system,” she said. “But at the same time the central and local government[s], they don’t have sufficient resources to solve the problem at once.”

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Treasury Bond Volatility Forces Bessent to Double Debt Buyback Size as Yields Swing

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Bessent

A turbulent week in the U.S. Treasury market prompted the Treasury Department to sharply increase the size of its long-term debt buyback program, as bond prices fell even while equity markets pushed toward record highs. The divergence has drawn attention from fixed-income strategists who see it as a signal of underlying investor unease about federal borrowing levels.

What Happened This Week

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC on Thursday, August 20, 2026, that the Treasury had doubled the size of its long-term debt buyback operations, moving from roughly $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation. Bessent indicated the figure could climb further, saying “we’re going to increase the size of the buyback,” and noted the accelerated pace could exceed the announced $4 billion threshold per issue.

Buybacks allow the Treasury to repurchase outstanding government bonds directly from the market, which can help support prices and dampen yield volatility during periods of stress. The expanded program came as stocks staged a late-week recovery: the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 both advanced on Friday, August 21, even as Treasuries logged mild losses, according to Bloomberg market data.

Why Bond and Equity Markets Are Diverging

Capital.com senior market analyst Daniela Hathorn described the week’s dynamic as markets “ending the week on a softer tone after the relative calm of early August was disrupted by renewed pressure in global bond markets, another rise in oil prices, and growing uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s next move.” She noted that higher long-term borrowing costs are increasingly challenging elevated equity valuations, even as U.S. equities pull back modestly from record highs.

This divergence — equities near record levels while bonds sell off  is unusual and reflects two different sets of investor concerns. Equity investors have remained focused on corporate earnings strength, particularly from large technology companies ahead of Nvidia’s closely watched August 26 earnings report. Bond investors, by contrast, are more directly exposed to concerns about the scale of federal borrowing, highlighted this week by the national debt crossing the $40 trillion threshold for the first time.

The Fed and Treasury “Working in Opposite Directions”

Wilmington Trust senior bond portfolio manager Wil Stith told Yahoo Finance that current conditions reflect “the Fed and the Treasury basically working in sort of opposite directions,” adding that the imbalance will likely require the Federal Reserve  which he described as having “the larger sandbox”  to adjust the federal funds rate rather than relying on Treasury market interventions alone to manage yields.

Notably, the bond market’s reaction to the Treasury’s buyback expansion was relatively muted; strategists described the move as being largely absorbed without a major rally, suggesting the underlying pressure on yields stems from factors, such as inflation persistence and debt sustainability concerns, that a buyback program alone cannot resolve.

What Comes Next

Markets are now looking to two major events in the days ahead: Nvidia’s earnings report on Wednesday, August 26, and the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, running August 27-29. This will be the first Jackson Hole gathering under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, whose public communication style and policy signals remain less established than his predecessors’, according to market commentary from Regards of Wall Street.

For investors, the key metrics to watch are the size and frequency of future Treasury buyback operations, movements in the 10-year Treasury yield, and any policy signals from Warsh’s keynote address. Continued yield volatility alongside record equity valuations would suggest the market imbalance identified this week has not yet been resolved.

 

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Cross-Border Settlement Innovation and Real-Time Payment Architecture

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The global banking system is undergoing a comprehensive modernization of cross-border payment infrastructure. Driven by real-time settlement networks, open banking APIs, and interoperable messaging standards, financial institutions and multinational corporations are eliminating multi-day delays and reducing transaction costs associated with legacy international wire transfers.

Transition to Real-Time Gross Settlement Networks
Historically, international business-to-business (B2B) payments relied on complex correspondent banking relationships involving intermediary fees and processing delays. In 2026, the widespread adoption of ISO 20022 messaging protocols alongside interconnected Real-Time Gross Settlement (RTGS) systems allows direct, end-to-end processing of cross-border transfers.

Commercial banks are providing corporate clients with continuous, 24/7 payment clearing capabilities. Real-time transaction confirmation and automated FX rate locking allow international businesses to settle cross-border trade obligations within minutes, significantly reducing counterparty risk.

Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) Interoperability
Wholesale Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) pilot initiatives are reaching operational maturity across several key financial centers. Collaborative multi-CBDC platforms enable participating central banks and commercial institutions to settle foreign exchange and international trade transactions directly on shared distributed ledgers.

These wholesale digital currency networks eliminate traditional clearinghouse delays and minimize foreign exchange slippage. Enterprise treasury departments benefit from enhanced liquidity management, as cross-border cash balances can be deployed and repatriated instantaneously.

Corporate Treasury Transformation
For enterprise treasurers, instant cross-border settlement transforms cash management strategies:
– Working Capital Optimization: Reduced transaction float allows companies to lower precautionary cash reserves and optimize short-term liquidity investments.
– Automated Reconciliation: Enriched data formats embedded in ISO 20022 payment messages streamline automated general ledger posting and invoice matching.
– Reduced Processing Overhead: Account-to-account (A2A) real-time clearing bypasses costly intermediary correspondent banking fees.

Strategic Financial Priorities
1. Upgrade Treasury Systems: Ensure internal core enterprise software supports real-time ISO 20022 payment messaging standards.
2. Leverage Instant Clearing Rails: Utilize direct payment networks to lower cross-border transaction fees and eliminate settlement delays.
3. Evaluate Multi-Currency Liquidity: Modernize liquidity management frameworks to capitalize on 24/7 real-time settlement capabilities.

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Private Credit Expansion and Regulatory Oversight in 2026 Capital Markets

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The global private credit market has solidified its role as a fundamental pillar of enterprise finance, expanding rapidly across middle-market lending, asset-backed finance, and infrastructure financing. As non-bank financial institutions capture a larger share of corporate debt origination, global regulatory bodies are increasing oversight to evaluate market transparency and systemic risk interconnections.

Growth Drivers in Direct Lending
Direct lending platforms have continued to attract substantial institutional allocations from pension funds, sovereign wealth entities, and insurance companies seeking attractive risk-adjusted yields. Private debt funds offer corporate borrowers customized financing structures, faster execution timelines, and confidentiality compared to syndicated loan markets.

In 2026, private credit managers are increasingly financing larger corporate transactions, providing multi-billion-dollar credit facilities for buyout deals and corporate restructurings. The flexibility of private debt contracts—featuring unitranche pricing and tailored covenant packages—has made direct lending the preferred capital source for middle-market enterprise sponsors.

Regulatory Scrutiny and Systemic Risk Assessment
The rapid growth of non-bank intermediation has drawn heightened scrutiny from financial regulators in North America and Europe. Because private debt agreements are negotiated privately without public exchange disclosures, central banks are evaluating potential vulnerabilities related to asset valuation consistency and fund liquidity profiles.

Regulatory agencies are introducing guidelines aimed at improving reporting standards for private investment vehicles managing institutional assets. Key focus areas include monitoring leverage ratios within private credit funds and evaluating indirect credit exposures between commercial banking institutions and private debt funds.

Navigating Elevated Refinancing Costs
With benchmark interest rates remaining elevated, private debt borrowers face higher debt service obligations on floating-rate credit facilities. Financial advisory firms report an increase in proactive liability management strategies, including payment-in-kind (PIK) interest options, equity infusions from sponsors, and covenant modifications.

Private credit managers with deep operational capabilities are actively working alongside portfolio companies to optimize working capital and maintain cash flow coverage ratios during periods of higher borrowing costs.

Key Financial Takeaways
1. Mainstream Asset Class: Private credit has expanded beyond niche alternative asset status into a core corporate finance solution.
2. Enhanced Transparency Standards: Regulatory frameworks are evolving toward greater disclosure requirements for private debt managers.
3. Proactive Risk Management: Lenders and sponsors must prioritize debt sustainability and active portfolio monitoring amid high benchmark rates.

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