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Checks and Balance newsletter: Trump’s erstwhile allies

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This is the introduction to Checks and Balance, a weekly, subscriber-only newsletter bringing exclusive insight from our correspondents in America.

James Bennet, our Lexington columnist, considers the former allies of Donald Trump and their refusal to endorse him

Bill Clinton had his share of scandals, as I wrote in Lexington this week, but he was an effective and popular president, and he left office with an approval rating of 66%, according to Gallup. Barack Obama also left on a high note, at 59%. When the two former presidents appeared with President Joe Biden in New York on March 28th, they were plumping for money for his campaign, but they nevertheless presented a dignified tableau of mutual respect and affection, solidarity and continuity. 

What a contrast with Donald Trump. The only other living former Republican president, George W. Bush, has never even endorsed him, let alone embraced him in public. Mr Trump makes a virtue of that, of course. His politics are grounded in the idea he is breaking with everything that came before. 

What’s weird, though, is that the discontinuity increasingly applies to his own term in office. His own vice-president, Mike Pence, said in mid-March he will not endorse his former boss—not a huge surprise, since Mr Pence has accused Mr Trump of putting himself “over the constitution”, and yet it is still a shocking repudiation, one without obvious precedent at that level of American politics. It puts Mr Pence on a list of officials who served Mr Trump but have since broken with him that includes an attorney-general (Bill Barr), two defence secretaries (Jim Mattis and Mark Esper), two national security advisers (John Bolton and H.R. McMaster), two chiefs of staff (John Kelly and Mick Mulvaney), a chairman of the joint chiefs of staff (Mark Milley), a secretary of the Navy (Richard Spencer), a secretary of state (Rex Tillerson), a secretary of education (Betsy DeVos), and a secretary of transportation (Elaine Chao), among others. 

Maybe some of these people will have a change of heart, though that doesn’t seem probable. (Those Republicans, such as Senator Lindsey Graham, who repudiate their repudiations of Mr Trump tend to still have political ambitions. For that reason Nikki Haley, who was Mr Trump’s most formidable opponent for the Republican nomination, may come around, though she appears to be resisting so far.) Mr Kelly has called Mr Trump “a person with nothing but contempt for our democratic institutions, our constitution, and our rule of law”. Mr Esper has said “his actions are all about him and not about the country.” Mr Bolton has said he thought foreign leaders saw Mr Trump as “a laughing fool”. 

It seems to defy not just conventional politics but even common sense that such condemnation and contempt from formidable people who worked closely with Mr Trump does not matter much. At least not so far.

Economics

Donald Trump has many ways to hurt Elon Musk

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THERE WAS a time, not long ago, when an important skill for journalists was translating the code in which powerful people spoke about each other. Carefully prepared speeches and other public remarks would be dissected for hints about the arguments happening in private. Among Donald Trump’s many achievements is upending this system. In his administration people seem to say exactly what they think at any given moment. Wild threats are made—to end habeas corpus; to take Greenland by force—without any follow-through. Journalists must now try to guess what is real and what is for show.

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Economics

Donald Trump has many ways to hurt Elon Musk

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on

THERE WAS a time, not long ago, when an important skill for journalists was translating the code in which powerful people spoke about each other. Carefully prepared speeches and other public remarks would be dissected for hints about the arguments happening in private. Among Donald Trump’s many achievements is upending this system. In his administration people seem to say exactly what they think at any given moment. Wild threats are made—to end habeas corpus; to take Greenland by force—without any follow-through. Journalists must now try to guess what is real and what is for show.

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Economics

Jobs report May 2025:

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U.S. payrolls increased 139,000 in May, more than expected; unemployment at 4.2%

Hiring decreased just slightly in May even as consumers and companies braced against tariffs and a potentially slowing economy, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.

Nonfarm payrolls rose 139,000 for the month, above the muted Dow Jones estimate for 125,000 and a bit below the downwardly revised 147,000 that the U.S. economy added in April.

The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%. A more encompassing measure that includes discouraged workers and the underemployed also was unchanged, holding at 7.8%.

Worker pay grew more than expected, with average hourly earnings up 0.4% during the month and 3.9% from a year ago, compared with respective forecasts for 0.3% and 3.7%.

“Stronger than expected jobs growth and stable unemployment underlines the resilience of the US labor market in the face of recent shocks,” said Lindsay Rosner, head of multi-sector fixed income investing at Goldman Sachs Asset Management.

Nearly half the job growth came from health care, which added 62,000, even higher than its average gain of 44,000 over the past year. Leisure and hospitality contributed 48,000 while social assistance added 16,000.

On the downside, government lost 22,000 jobs as efforts to cull the federal workforce by President Donald Trump and the Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency began to show an impact.

Stock market futures jumped higher after the release as did Treasury yields.

Though the May numbers were better than expected, there were some underlying trouble spots.

The April count was revised lower by 30,000, while March’s total came down by 65,000 to 120,000.

There also were disparities between the establishment survey, which is used to generate the headline payrolls gain, and the household survey, which is used for the unemployment rate. The latter count, generally more volatile than the establishment survey, showed a decrease of 696,000 workers. Full-time workers declined by 623,000, while part-timers rose by 33,000.

“The May jobs report still has everyone waiting for the other shoe to drop,” said Daniel Zhao, lead economist at job rating site Glassdoor. “This report shows the job market standing tall, but as economic headwinds stack up cumulatively, it’s only a matter of time before the job market starts straining against those headwinds.”

The report comes against a teetering economic background, complicated by Trump’s tariffs and an ever-changing variable of how far he will go to try to level the global playing field for American goods.

Most indicators show that the economy is still a good distance from recession. But sentiment surveys indicate high degrees of anxiety from both consumers and business leaders as they brace for the ultimate impact of how much tariffs will slow business activity and increase inflation.

For their part, Federal Reserve officials are viewing the current landscape with caution.

The central bank holds its next policy meeting in less than two weeks, with markets largely expecting the Fed to stay on hold regarding interest rates. In recent speeches, policymakers have indicated greater concern with the potential for tariff-induced inflation.

“With the Fed laser-focused on managing the risks to the inflation side of its mandate, today’s stronger than expected jobs report will do little to alter its patient approach,” said Rosner, the Goldman Sachs strategist.

Friday also marks the final day before Fed officials head into their quiet period before the meeting, when they do not issue policy remarks.

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