The Commerzbank building (second from right) in Frankfurt am Main, western Germany, on Sept. 25, 2023.
Kirill Kudryavtsev | Afp | Getty Images
UniCredit‘s move to take a stake in German lender Commerzbank is raising questions on whether a long awaited cross-border merger could spur more acquisitions and shake up the European banking sector.
Last week, UniCredit announced it had taken a 9% stake in Commerzbank, confirming that half of this shareholding was acquired from the government. Berlin has been a major shareholder of Commerzbank since it injected 18.2 billion euros ($20.2 billion) to rescue the lender during the 2008 financial crisis.
UniCredit also expressed an interest in a merger of the two, with the Italian bank’s CEO Andrea Orcel telling Bloomberg TV that “all options are on the table,” citing the possibility that it either takes no further action or buys in the open market. Commerzbank has given a more lukewarm response to the merger proposals.
But analysts have welcomed the move by UniCredit, particularly because a tie-up might spur similar activity in Europe’s banking sector — which is often seen as more fragmented than in the U.S., with regulatory hurdles and legacy issues providing obstacles to mega deals.
Right fit for UniCredit?
So far, the market has responded positively to UniCredit’s move. Commerzbank shares jumped 20% on the day UniCredit’s stake was announced. Shares of the German lender are up around 48% so far this year and added another 3% on Wednesday.
Investors appreciate the geographical overlap between the two banks, the consistency in financials and an assumption that the transaction is “collaborative” in nature, UBS analysts, led by Ignacio Cerezo, said in a research note last week. According to UBS, the ball is now in Commerzbank’s court.
Analysts at Berenberg said in a note last week that a potential merger deal, “should, in theory, have a limited effect on UniCredit’s capital distribution plans.” They said that while there is “strategic merit” in a deal, the immediate financial benefits might be modest for UniCredit, with potential risks from the cross-border deal diminishing some of the benefit.
David Benamou, chief investment officer at Axiom Alternative Investments, hailed Orcel’s decision to take a stake in Commerzbank as a “fantastic move” that makes sense because of the increase in German market share it would grant UniCredit.
As Commerzbank “missed on costs in Q2 [the second quarter], currently it’s at a very low valuation, so the moment [Orcel] stepped in, is probably one of the best moments he could have,” Benamou told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” last week.
When asked how imminent a takeover was in the short term, Benamou suggested it was possible, saying, “they will probably come to it.”
According to Arnaud Journois, senior vice president of European Financial Institution Ratings at Morningstar DBRS, UniCredit is already on its way to becoming a leading bank in Europe.
He told CNBC’s “Street Signs Europe” Wednesday that there was a “double logic” behind UniCredit’s move as it enables the Italian lender to access both the German and Polish markets where Commerzbank currently operates.
“UniCredit has been very active in the past two years, doing a few targeted acquisitions … So this is the next logical step,” Journois said.
UniCredit continues to surprise markets with some stellar quarterly profit beats. It earned 8.6 billion euros last year (up 54% year-on-year), also pleasing investors via share buybacks and dividends.
What does it mean for the sector?
Analysts are hoping that a move by UniCredit will encourage more cross-border consolidation. European officials have been making more and more comments about the need for bigger banks. French President Emmanuel Macron, for example, said in May in an interview with Bloomberg that Europe’s banking sector needs greater consolidation.
“European countries might be partners, but they are still competing sometimes. So, I know that from an EU standpoint — policymaker standpoint — there is appetite for more consolidation to happen. However, we think that there are a few hurdles that make that difficult, especially on the regulatory side,” Journois told CNBC.
A cross-border styled merger between UniCredit and Commerzbank would be more preferential than a domestic merger between Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank, according to Reint Gropp, president of the Hall Institute for Economic Research.
“The German banking structure is long overdue for a consolidation process. Essentially, Germany still has almost half of all banks in the euro zone, that’s significantly more than its share in GDP. So any consolidation process would be welcome now,” Gropp told CNBC’s “Street Signs Europe” on Wednesday.
He noted that Commerzbank has always been a “big candidate for a takeover” in the German banking sector because most of the other banks in the country are savings banks which cannot be taken over by private institutions, or cooperative banks which are also difficult takeover targets.
Filippo Alloatti, head of financials at Federated Hermes, said Deutsche Bank is unlikely to present a strong rival offer for Commerzbank.
With a CET1 ratio of 13.5% compared to its target of 13%, Deutsche Bank is rather “limited.” CET ratios are used to gauge the financial strength of a lender. The German bank also has less excess capital than UniCredit and therefore “cannot really afford” a takeover, Alloatti said.
“We’ve been waiting for this,” Alloatti said, speaking about the potential for further consolidation in the sector. “If they [UniCredit] are successful, then of course, other management teams will study this case,” he said, noting that there was also scope in Italy for domestic consolidation.
Gropp acknowledged that UniCredit’s CEO had made a “very bold move” that caught both the German government and Commerzbank by surprise.
“But maybe we need a bold move to effect any changes at all in the European banking system, which is long overdue,” he said.
What’s next?
In comments reported by Reuters, Commerzbank’s Chief Executive Manfred Knof told reporters on Monday that he would look at any proposals from UniCredit in line with the bank’s obligations to its stakeholders.
Knof informed the bank’s supervisory board last week that he would not seek an extension of his contract which runs until the end of 2025. German newspaper Handelsblatt reported that the board might be considering an earlier change of leadership.
The supervisory board at Commerzbank will meet next week to discuss UniCredit’s stake, people familiar with the matter who preferred to remain anonymous told CNBC. There are no plans to replace Knof as soon as that meeting, the sources added.
– CNBC’s Annette Weisbach, Silvia Amaro and Ruxandra Iordache contributed to this report.
Bitcoin fell below the $79,000 level as investors braced for more financial market volatility after U.S. equites suffered their worst decline since 2020 on the rollout of President Donald Trump’s restrictive global tariffs.
The price of bitcoin was last lower by 4% at $78,835.07, according to Coin Metrics, after trading above the $80,000 for most of this year — barring a couple brief blips below it amid recent volatility. It’s off its January all-time high by about 34%.
Although the flagship cryptocurrency usually trades like a big tech stock and is often viewed by traders as a leading indicator of market sentiment, it bucked the broader market meltdown last week – holding in the $80,000 to $90,000 range and rising to end the week as stocks tumbled and even gold fell.
Other cryptocurrencies suffered bigger losses overnight. Ether and the token tied to Solana tumbled 9% each.
Bitcoin’s down move triggered a wave of long liquidations, as traders betting on an increase in its price were forced to sell their assets to cover their losses. In the past 24 hours, bitcoin has seen more than $181 million in long liquidations, according to CoinGlass. Ether saw $188 million in long liquidations in the same period.
Bitcoin has traded mostly above $80,000 in 2025
Rattled investors dumped their holdings of cryptocurrencies, which trade 24 hours, over the weekend as they anticipated further carnage, after Trump’s retaliatory tariffs raised global recession fears and caused investors to sell all risk.
The duties on all imports, in addition to custom tariffs for major trading partners, have sparked worries of a global trade war that could lead the U.S. into a recession. Growing concerns about the far-reaching impact of the tariffs sent markets reeling worldwide.
In the two sessions following the tariff announcement, global stocks wiped out $7.46 trillion in market value based on the market cap of the S&P Global Broad Market Index, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.
That figure includes $5.87 trillion lost in the U.S. stock market over those two sessions and another $1.59 trillion loss in market value in other major global markets.
Bitcoin is down 15% in 2025 and, absent a crypto-specific catalyst, is expected to continue moving in tandem with equities as global recession fears overshadow any regulatory tailwinds crypto was expected to benefit from this year.
Worries about tariffs may have rattled global investors, but analysts still expect China’s technology sector to keep riding this year’s wave of interest in homegrown generative artificial intelligence. The latest salvo of U.S. tariffs on China and its Southeast Asia trading partners sent Chinese stocks tumbling at the open Thursday, but they closed well off their lows. Local markets were closed Friday for a holiday. “Many of the larger tech names (and most of the consumer names) have limited exposure to the U.S. market despite some overreaction at first,” Kai Wang, Asia equity strategist at Morningstar, said in a statement Thursday. “We are expecting some fiscal policy intervention,” he said, “should there be incremental macro weakness.” China’s finance ministry indicated last month it was holding onto some dry powder given domestic and overseas uncertainties. Chinese policymakers are expected to hold a regular meeting later this month. Chinese tech stock valuations still look inexpensive relative to those in the U.S., Citi China equity strategist Pierre Lau and a team said in a report Thursday. They pointed out that average price-to-earnings ratio of seven leading tech-related Chinese stocks is 52% below that of U.S “Magnificent Seven” — not yet recovered to the historical average of 33% in the past five years. “We prefer domestic over export plays amid uncertainties stemming from higher tariffs,” the Citi strategists said. They also prefer services over goods sectors, and also like growth more than value. The firm is overweight on China internet, technology and transportation stock sectors. Citi’s top China stock buys include social media and gaming company Tencent , electric car giant BYD and home appliance company Haier , all listed in Hong Kong. Growing investor interest In a sign of how much investor interest has grown, nearly one-quarter of international investors have turned more positive on Chinese tech, the Citi strategists said, citing the firm’s U.S. marketing work last month. Global emerging markets equity funds’ allocation to China hit a 16-month high in late March , according to EPFR. Chinese startup DeepSeek released an AI model in late January that claimed to outperform OpenAI’s ChatGPT, despite U.S. restrictions on Chinese access to advanced chips for AI training. AI adoption is also expected to help Chinese companies cut costs , while policy aims to support consumer growth. Initial upgrades to Chinese companies’ earnings expectations are being driven by high-tech sectors and selected consumer companies, HSBC analysts pointed out Thursday. An index of 10 major Chinese tech companies traded in Hong Kong closed 1.2% lower Thursday, slightly better than the overall Hang Seng index’s 1.5% drop. The tech index remains more than 20% higher year to date, versus gains of just under 14% for the Hang Seng index. Another sector investment analysts say is relatively sheltered from the new tariffs is Chinese health care as pharmaceuticals were excluded from Trump’s latest round of tariffs. “Even if Trump imposed any tariffs in the future, most Chinese biotechs have U.S. partners and are not considered exporters, and tariffs on bulk drug makers could easily be transferred to downstream U.S. pharma,” Jefferies equity analyst Cui Cui and a team said in a note Wednesday. They also don’t expect reviving targeted legislation, such as the expired Biosecure Act , to become a U.S. priority soon. The Biosecure Act sought to restrict Chinese drug companies such as Wuxi Biologics from federal contracts. “Given that lowering drug prices in the U.S. is supported by both Republicans and Democrats, giving U.S. pharma companies the flexibility to operate efficiently and maintain an optimal cost structure is essential,” the Jefferies analysts said, highlighting expectations that Wuxi Biologics can operate at least twice as efficiently than competitors Samsung Bio and Lonza. Hong Kong-listed Wuxi Biologics said in late March that it expected ” accelerated and profitable growth in 2025 .” Jefferies rates the stock a buy. However, the extent of new U.S. tariffs and impact on China’s economy remains unclear. Morningstar’s Wang cautioned that tariffs would indirectly affect the tech sector given the likely negative impact on China’s gross domestic product, while market volatility may increase.
Warren Buffett went on the record Friday to deny social media posts after President Donald Trump shared on Truth Social a fan video that claimed the president is tanking the stock market on purpose with the endorsement of the legendary investor.
Trump on Friday shared an outlandish social media video that defends his recent policy decisions by arguing he is deliberately taking down the market as a strategic play to force lower interest and mortgage rates.
“Trump is crashing the stock market by 20% this month, but he’s doing it on purpose,” alleged the video, which Trump posted on his Truth Social account.
The video’s narrator then falsely states, “And this is why Warren Buffett just said, ‘Trump is making the best economic moves he’s seen in over 50 years.'”
The president shared a link to an X post from the account @AmericaPapaBear, a self-described “Trumper to the end.” The X post itself appears to be a repost of a weeks-old TikTok video from user @wnnsa11. The video has been shared more than 2,000 times on Truth Social and nearly 10,000 times on X.
Buffett, 94, didn’t single out any specific posts, but his conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway outright rejected all comments claimed to be made by him.
“There are reports currently circulating on social media (including Twitter, Facebook and Tik Tok) regarding comments allegedly made by Warren E. Buffett. All such reports are false,” the company said in a statement Friday.
CNBC’s Becky Quick spoke to Buffett Friday about this statement and he said he wanted to knock down misinformation in an age where false rumors can be blasted around instantaneously. Buffett told Quick that he won’t make any commentary related to the markets, the economy or tariffs between now and Berkshire’s annual meeting on May 3.
‘A tax on goods’
While Buffett hasn’t spoken about this week’s imposition of sweeping tariffs from the Trump administration, his view on such things has pretty much always been negative. Just in March, the Berkshire CEO and chairman called tariffs “an act of war, to some degree.”
“Over time, they are a tax on goods. I mean, the tooth fairy doesn’t pay ’em!” Buffett said in the news interview with a laugh. “And then what? You always have to ask that question in economics. You always say, ‘And then what?'”
During Trump’s first term, Buffett opined at length in 2018 and 2019 about the trade conflicts that erupted, warning that the Republican’s aggressive moves could cause negative consequences globally.
“If we actually have a trade war, it will be bad for the whole world … everything intersects in the world,” Buffett said in a CNBC interview in 2019. “A world that adjusts to something very close to free trade … more people will live better than in a world with significant tariffs and shifting tariffs over time.”
Buffett has been in a defensive mode over the past year as he rapidly dumped stocks and raised a record amount of cash exceeding $300 billion. His conglomerate has a big U.S. focus and has large businesses in insurance, railroads, manufacturing, energy and retail.