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The Fed has set out on a ‘recalibration’ of policy. Here’s what Powell’s new buzzword means

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Fed Chair Powell: We know it's time to recalibrate our policy

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has unveiled his latest buzzword to describe monetary policy, with a “recalibration” of policy at a pivotal moment for the central bank.

At his news conference following Wednesday’s open market committee meeting, Powell used variations of the word no fewer than eight times as he sought to explain why the central bank took the unusual step of a half percentage point rate cut absent an obvious economic weakening.

“This recalibration of our policy stance will help maintain the strength of the economy and the labor market, and will continue to enable further progress on inflation as we begin the process of moving forward a more neutral stance,” Powell said.

Financial markets weren’t quite sure what to make of the chair’s messaging in the meeting’s immediate aftermath.

However, asset prices soared Thursday as investors took Powell at his word that the unusually outsized move wasn’t in response to a substantial slowing of the economy. Rather, it was an opportunity to “recalibrate” Fed policy away from a rigid focus on inflation to a broader effort to make sure a recent weakening of the labor market didn’t get out of hand.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 jumped to new highs in trading Thursday after swinging violently Wednesday.

“Policy had been calibrated for meaningfully higher inflation. With the inflation rate now drifting close to target, the Fed can remove some of that aggressive tightening that they put into place,” said Tom Porcelli, chief U.S. economist at PGIM Fixed Income.

“It really allows him to push this narrative that this easing cycle is not about us being in recession, it is about extending the economic expansion,” he added. “I think it’s a really powerful idea. It’s something we had been hoping that he would do.”

Powell’s buzzwords

Several of Powell’s previous efforts to provide buzzy descriptions of Fed policy or its views on the economy haven’t worked out so well.

In 2018, his characterizations of the efforts to reduce its bond holdings as being on “autopilot,” as well as his assessment that a string of rate hikes the same year had brought the Fed “a long way” from a neutral interest rate spurred blowback from markets.

More famously, his insistence that an inflation surge in 2021 would prove “transitory” ended up causing the Fed to be slow-footed on policy to the point where it had to enact a series of three-quarter percentage point rate hikes to pull down inflation.

But markets expressed confidence in Powell’s latest assessment, despite this track record and some signs of cracks in the economy.

The Fed has underestimated the extent of their 'new language' in cutting, says Narayana Kocherlakota

“In other contexts, a larger move may convey greater concern about growth, but Powell repeatedly stressed this was basically a joyous cut as ebbing inflation allows the Fed to act to preserve a strong labor market,” Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase, said in a client note. “Moreover, if policy is set optimally, it should return the economy to a favorable place over time.”

Still Feroli expects the Fed will have to follow up Wednesday’s action with a similar-sized move at the Nov. 6-7 meeting unless the labor market reverses a slowing pattern that began in April.

There was some good news on the jobs front Thursday, as the Labor Department reported that weekly claims for unemployment benefits slid to 219,000, the lowest since May.

An unusual move lower

The half percentage point — or 50 basis point — cut was remarkable in that it’s the first time the Fed has gone beyond its traditional quarter-point moves absent a looming recession or crisis.

Though Powell did not give credence to the notion that the move was a make-up call for not cutting at the July meeting, speculation on Wall Street was that the central bank indeed was playing catch-up to some degree.

“This is a matter of maybe he felt like they were getting a little bit behind,” said Dan North, senior economist or North America at Allianz Trade. “A 50 basis point cut is pretty unusual. It’s been a long time, and I think it was maybe the last labor market report that gave him pause.”

Indeed, Powell has made no secret of his concerns about the labor market, and stated Wednesday that getting in front of a potential weakening was an important motivator behind the recalibration.

“The Fed still sees the economy as healthy and the labor market as solid, but Powell noted that it is time to recalibrate policy,” wrote Seth Carpenter, chief global economist at Morgan Stanley. “Powell has stressed and proven with this rate cut that the FOMC is willing to move gradually or make bigger moves depending on the incoming data and evolution of risks.”

Fundstrat's Tom Lee: Fed cuts set up strong markets next few months but election uncertainty remains

Carpenter is among the group that expects the Fed now can dial down its accommodation back to quarter-point increments through the rest of this year and into the first half of 2025.

Futures markets traders, though, are pricing in a more aggressive pace that would entail a quarter-point cut in November but back to a half-point move in December, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch gauge.

Bank of America economist Aditya Bhave noted a change in the Fed’s post-meeting statement that included a reference to seeking “maximum employment,” a mention he took to indicate that the central bank is ready to stay aggressive if the jobs picture continues to deteriorate.

That also means the recalibration could get tricky.

“We think the Fed will end up front-loading rate cuts more than it has indicated,” Bhave said in a note. “The labor market is likely to remain tepid, and we think markets will push to do another super-sized cut in 4Q.”

Economics

Checks and Balance newsletter: The Democrats’ future is up for grabs

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Checks and Balance newsletter: The Democrats’ future is up for grabs

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Economics

Trump’s approval rating on economy at lowest of presidential career

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President Donald Trump is registering the worst economic approval numbers of his presidential career amid broad discontent over his handling of tariffs, inflation and government spending, according to the latest CNBC All-America Economic Survey.

The survey found that the boost in economic optimism that accompanied Trump’s reelection has disappeared, with more Americans now believing the economy will get worse than at any time since 2023 and with a sharp turn toward pessimism about the stock market.

The survey of 1,000 Americans across the country showed 44% approving of Trump’s handling of the presidency and 51% disapproving, slightly better than CNBC’s final reading when the president left office in 2020. On the economy, however, the survey showed Trump with 43% approval and 55% disapproval, the first time in any CNBC poll that he has been net negative on the economy while president.

Trump’s Republican base remains solidly behind him, but Democrats, at -90 net economic approval, are 30 points more negative than their average during his first term, and independents are 23 points more negative. Blue collar workers, who were key to the president’s election victory, remain positive on the Trump’s handling of the economy, but their disapproval numbers have shot up by 14 points compared to their average for his first term.

“Donald Trump was reelected specifically to improve the economy, and so far, people are not liking what they’re seeing,” said Jay Campbell, partner with Hart Associates, the Democratic pollster on the survey.

The poll was conducted April 9 through 13th and has a margin of error of +/-3.1%.

The results show that Trump has so far been able to convince only his base that his economic policies will be good for the country over time: 49% of the public believe the economy will get worse over the next year, the most pessimistic overall result since 2023. That figure includes 76% of Republicans who see the economy improving. But 83% of Democrats and 54% of independents see the economy getting worse. Among those believing the president’s policies will have a positive impact, 27% say it will take a year or longer. However, 40% of those who are negative about the president’s policies say they are hurting the economy now.

“We’re in a turbulent, kind of maelstrom of change when it comes to how people feel about what’s going to happen next,” said Micah Roberts, managing partner with Public Opinion Strategies, the Republican pollsters for the survey. “The data… suggests more than ever that it’s the negative partisan reaction that’s driving and sustaining discontent and trepidation about what comes next.”

While partisanship is the most significant part of the president’s negative showing, he loses some support among Republicans in key areas like tariffs and inflation, and has seen a notable deterioration among independents.

Tariffs look to be a substantial part of the overall public’s discontent. Americans disapprove of across-the-board tariffs by a 49 to 35 margin, and majorities believe they are bad for American workers, inflation and the overall economy. Democrats give tariffs a thumbs down by an 83-point margin and independents by 26 points. Republicans approve of the tariffs by a 59-point spread — 20 points below their 79% net approval of the president.

Large majorities of Americans see Canada, Mexico, the EU and Japan as more of an economic opportunity for the United States rather than an economic threat. In fact, all are viewed more favorably than when CNBC asked the question during Trump’s first term. The data suggest the public, including majorities of Republicans, do not embrace the antipathy the president has expressed towards those trading partners. On China, however, the public sees it as a threat by a 44% to 35% margin, substantially worse than when CNBC last asked the question in 2019.

The president’s worst numbers come on his handling of inflation, which the public disapproves of by a 37 to 60% margin, including strong net negatives from Democrats and independents. But at 58%, it’s the lowest net positive approval from Republicans for any of the issues asked about the president. 57% of the public believe we will soon be, or are currently in, a recession, up from just 40% in March 2024. The figure includes 12% who think the recession has already begun.

The public also disapproves of the president’s handling of federal government spending by a 45% to 51% and foreign policy by a 42% to 53% margin.

Trump’s best numbers come on immigration, where his handling of the Southern border is approved by a 53% to 41% margin, and deportation of illegal immigrants is approved 52% to 45%. The president achieved a slight majority of support from independents on deportations and 22% support from Democrats on the Southern border. While still modest, it’s the best-performing issue for Trump among Democrats.

Meanwhile, Americans have turned more negative on the stock market than they’ve been in two years. Some 53% say it’s a bad time to invest, with just 38% saying it’s a good time. The numbers represent a sharp turnaround from the stock market optimism that greeted the president’s election. In fact, the December survey represented the sharpest swing toward market optimism in the survey’s 17-year history and the April survey is the sharpest turn towards pessimism.

The president’s troubles with his approval rating do not appear to be translating for now into significant potential gains for Democrats. Asked about congressional preference, 48% of the public support Democratic control and 46% support Republican control, barely changed from CNBC’s March 2022 survey.

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Economics

‘He should bring them down’

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U.S. President Donald Trump and U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

Win McNamee | Annabelle Gordon | Reuters

President Donald Trump on Friday lobbed his latest criticism at Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, as the White House’s discontent for the economic policy leader hits a fever pitch.

During a Friday afternoon question-and-answer session with reporters, Trump pointed to examples of prices going down.

“If we had a Fed Chairman that understood what he was doing, interest rates would be coming down, too,” Trump said. “He should bring them down.”

Trump has long argued that the Fed, which sets monetary policy in the U.S., should cut down interest rates. His latest comments come as the White House has ratcheted up its attacks on Powell in recent days.

White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said Friday that Trump and his team are assessing whether they can remove the Fed chair. Powell has said previously that he cannot be fired under law and intends to serve through the end of his term as chair in May 2026.

“The president and his team will continue to study that matter,” Hassett said at the White House after a reporter questioned if firing Powell “is an option in a way that it wasn’t before,” according to Reuters.

Trump posted on Truth Social on Thursday that “Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough.” His post included the nickname of “Too Late” for Powell, a continuation of Trump’s habit of giving satirical titles to political rivals.

His use of the word “termination” raised questions around if Trump was referring to Powell’s potential removal from his post ahead of schedule. Hassett said on Friday the administration will look at if there’s “new legal analysis” that would allow for Powell’s firing.

Powell appeared to irk Trump after saying Wednesday that the president’s contentious tariff plan could drive up inflation in the near-term and create challenges for the central bank in managing goals of high employment rates and price stability. Powell said Trump’s levies — many of which are currently on pause — are “likely to move us further away from our goals.”

“We may find ourselves in the challenging scenario in which our dual-mandate goals are in tension,” Powell said in prepared remarks before the Economic Club of Chicago. “If that were to occur, we would consider how far the economy is from each goal, and the potentially different time horizons over which those respective gaps would be anticipated to close.”

Powell also said that the Fed was “well positioned to wait for greater clarity before considering any adjustments to our policy stance.”

The Federal Open Market Committee has its borrowing rate currently targeted in a range between 4.25% and 4.5%, where it has sat since December. Fed funds futures are pricing in a more than 90% likelihood that the central bank holds rates steady again at its policy meeting next month, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

As Trump’s team has scaled up criticisms, some Democrats have gone on defense. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., warned on Thursday that a president firing the Fed chief would be dire for U.S. financial markets.

“Understand this: If Chairman Powell can be fired by the president of the United States, it will crash markets in the United States,” Warren said on CNBC.

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