Finance
Commerzbank board member warns of job losses with hostile UniCredit
15 February 2024, Hesse, Frankfurt/M.: The lettering “Commerzbank” can be seen on the Commerzbank Tower in the center of the banking city. Boosted by the turnaround in interest rates, Commerzbank is aiming for another profit increase after a record year. Photo: Helmut Fricke/dpa (Photo by Helmut Fricke/picture alliance via Getty Images)
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Two-thirds of the jobs at Commerzbank could disappear if UniCredit successfully carries out a hostile takeover of the German lender, a Commerzbank supervisory board member warned on Tuesday.
Stefan Wittmann, who is also a senior official at German trade union Verdi, told CNBC’s Annette Weisbach that “we certainly hope we can avoid” a hostile takeover by the Italian bank. Witmann said Commerzbank’s board had called on the German government to carry out an internal review of the possible takeover, which he hopes will give the bank a six-month period to take stock of the situation.
“But if it [a hostile takeover] is unavoidable, we think that two-thirds of jobs will disappear, that there will be another significant cut in the branches,” he said, according to a translation.
“We will see in particular that UniCredit does not want all Commerzbank customers at all, but that it focuses on the supposedly best customers, namely the wealthy customers,” he added.
Berlin, which was the largest shareholder of Commerzbank after it injected 18.2 billion euros ($20.2 billion) to rescue the lender during the 2008 financial crisis, is likely to play a key role in any potential merger between the banks.
“We are actually concerned with our economic and industrial responsibility. As far as the workforce is concerned, which trade unions are of course particularly focused on, they would always lose out in the merger, regardless of the point in time,” Wittmann said. The bank has yet to respond to a request for comment on Wittmann’s statements.
UniCredit announced Monday it had increased its stake in the German lender to around 21% and submitted a request to boost that holding to up to 29.9%, signaling a takeover bid might be in the cards. Earlier this month, the Italian bank took a 9% stake in Commerzbank, confirming that half of this shareholding was acquired from the German government.
UniCredit believes substantial value can be unlocked within Commerzbank, Germany’s second-largest lender, but it said that further action is required for that value to be “crystalized.”
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz criticized UniCredit’s move on Monday, saying, “unfriendly attacks, hostile takeovers are not a good thing for banks and that is why the German government has clearly positioned itself in this direction,” Reuters reported.
‘Very tense’
Commerzbank’s supervisory board is due to meet this week to discuss UniCredit’s stake, people familiar with the matter who asked to remain anonymous previously told CNBC.
Wittmann said the mood is currently “very tense” within the company, adding that the bank was surprised by UniCredit’s announcement on Monday, which he described as a “180 degree-turn within 48 hours.”
“[UniCredit CEO Andrea Orcel] last spoke on Friday that he wanted a friendly takeover in agreement with all stakeholders and politicians. And yesterday we were surprised by his hostile takeover attempt. That doesn’t add up,” Wittmann said.
The supervisory board member explained that the two main reasons to regard a potential merger in a critical light are the lack of a banking union in Europe, and the fact that UniCredit has “absorbed itself with Italian government bonds in recent years.”
He questioned what might happen should geopolitical tensions or “upheavals” impact UniCredit’s availability of capital to finance Commerzbank’s industry.
In response to the 2008 financial crisis, the European Commission announced plans to create a banking union to improve the regulation and supervision of banks across the region.
Economist and former European Central Bank Governor Mario Draghi flagged in a recent report that banks in Europe face regulatory hurdles which “constrain their capacity to lend,” also citing the “incomplete” banking union as one factor that impacts competitiveness for the region’s banks.
“We have always spoken out, including as employee representatives on the Supervisory Board, that there can and should be mergers at [a] European level, but only when the banking union is in place. And that is just our second point of criticism, that we say: create the rules of the game and the guardrails first, and then do it sensibly when it is clear which playing field we are on,” Wittmann said.
Cybersecurity and enterprise software stocks have been market dogs in 2026, with fears that AI will wipe out a wide range of companies in the enterprise space dominating the narrative. But they snapped a brutal losing streak this past week, joining in the broader market rally that saw all losses from the U.S.-Iran war regained by the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500.
Cybersecurity has been “a victim of some of the AI-related headlines,” Christian Magoon, Amplify ETFs CEO, said on this week’s “ETF Edge.”
It wasn’t just niche cybersecurity names. Take Microsoft, for example, which was recently down close to 20% for the year. Its shares surged last week by 13%.
A big driver of the pummeling in software stocks was a rotation within tech by investors to AI infrastructure and semiconductors and some other names in large-cap tech, Magoon said, and since cybersecurity stocks and ETFs are heavily weighted towards software companies, they were left behind even as those businesses continue to grow on a fundamental basis.
But Wall Street now has become more bullish with the stocks at lower levels. Brent Thill, Jefferies tech analyst, said last week that the worst may be over for software stocks. “I think that this concept that software is dead, and then Anthropic and OpenAI are going to kill the entire industry, is just over-exaggerated,” he said on CNBC’s “Money Movers” on Wednesday.
“Big Short” investor Michael Burry wrote in a Substack post on Wednesday that he is becoming bullish about software stocks after the recent selloff. “Software stocks remain interesting because of accelerated extreme declines last week arising from a reflexive positive feedback loop between falling software stocks and changes in the market for their bank debt,” he wrote.
The Global X Cybersecurity ETF (BUG), is down about 12% since the beginning of the year, with top holdings including Palo Alto Networks, Fortinet, Akamai Technologies and CrowdStrike. But BUG was up 12% last week. The First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR) is down 6% for the year, but up 9% in the past week.
Piper Sandler analyst Rob Owens reiterated an “overweight” rating on Palo Alto Networks which helped the stock pop 7% — it is now down roughly 6% on the year. Its peers saw similar moves, including CrowdStrike.
Performance of Global X cybersecurity ETF versus S&P 500 over past one-year period.
Magoon said expectations may have become too high in cybersecurity, and with a crowding effect among investors, solid results were not enough to to push stocks higher. But the down-and-then-back-up 2026 for the sector is also a reminder that when stocks fall sharply in a short period of time, opportunity may knock.
“Once you’re down over 10% in some of these subsectors, you start to see the contrarians start to say, ‘well, maybe I’ll take a look at this,'” Magoon said.
He said AI does add both opportunity and uncertainty to the cybersecurity equation, increasing demand but also introducing new competition. But he added, “I think the dip is good to buy in an AI-driven world,” specifically because the risks to companies may lead to more M&A in cyber names that benefits the stocks.
For now, investors may look for opportunity on the margins rather than rush back into beaten-up tech names. “I think investors are still going to remain underweight software,” Thill said.
But Magoon advises investors to at least take the reminder to keep an eye on niches in the market during pronounced downturns. “The best-performing are often the least bought and do the best over the next 12 months versus late-in-the-game piling on,” he said.
While that may have been a mindset that worked against the last investors into cybersecurity and enterprise software in mid-2025 when the negative sentiment started building, at least for now, it’s started working for the stocks in the sector again.
Meanwhile, this year’s biggest winner is also a good example of what can be an extended trade in either a bullish or bearish direction. Last year, institutional ownership of energy was at multi-year lows, Magoon said, referencing Bank of America data. “Reverse sentiment can be a great indicator,” he said.
But he cautioned that any selective buying of stocks that have dipped does have to contend with the risk that there is a potentially bigger drawdown in the market yet to come in 2026. That is because midterm election years historically have been marked by large drawdowns. “If you think it is bad right now, it could get a lot worse,” Magoon said. But he added that there’s a silver-lining in that data, too, for the patient investor. The market has posted very strong 12-month returns after midterm election drawdowns end. So, for investors with a longer-term time horizon and no need for short-term liquidity, Magoon said, “stick in there.”
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New innovation in the exchange-traded fund industry could come at a cost to investors during extreme conditions.
According to MFS Investment Management’s Jamie Harrison, ETFs involved in increasingly complex derivatives and less transparent markets may be in uncharted territory when it comes to violent downturns.
“Those would be something that you’d want to keep an eye on as volatility ramps up,” the firm’s head of ETF capital markets told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week. “As innovation continues to increase at a rapid pace within the ETF wrapper, [it’s] definitely something that we advise our clients to be really front-footed about… Lack of transparency could absolutely be an issue if we’re going to start seeing some deep sell-offs.”
His firm has been around since 1924 and is known for inventing the open-end mutual fund. Last year, ETF.com named MFS Investment Management as the best new ETF issuer.
“It’s important to do due diligence on the portfolio,” he said. “Having a firm that has deep partnerships, deep bench of subject matter experts that plays with the A-team in terms of the Street and liquidity providers available [are] super important.”
Liquidity as the real issue?
Harrison suggested the real issue is liquidity, particularly during a steep sell-off.
“We’ve all seen the news and the headlines around potential private credit ETFs. That picture becomes much more murky,” he added. “It’s up to advisors, to investors [and] to clients to really dig in and look under the hood and engage with their issuers.”
He noted investors will have to ask some tough questions.
“What does this look like in a 20% drawdown? How does this liquidity facility work? Am I going to be able to get in? Am I going to be able to get out? And if I’m able to get out, am I able to get out at a price that’s tight to NAV [net asset value], and what’s the infrastructure at your shop in terms of managing that consideration for me,” said Harrison.
Amplify ETFs’ Christian Magoon is also concerned about these newer ETF strategies could weather a monster drawdown. He listed private credit as a red flag.
“If your ETF owns private credit, I think it’s worth taking a look at, kind of what the standards are around liquidity and how that ETF is trading, because that should be a bit of a mismatch between the trading pace of ETFs and the underlying asset,” the firm’s CEO said in the same interview.
Magoon also highlighted potential issues surrounding equity-linked notes. The notes provide fixed income security while offering potentially higher returns linked to stocks or equity indexes.
“Those could potentially be in stress due to redemptions and the underlying credit risk. That’s another kind of unique derivative,” Magoon said. “I would very closely look at any ETF that has equity-linked notes should we get into a major drawdown or there be a contagion in private credit or something related to the banking system.”
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