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China is easing monetary policy. The economy needs fiscal support

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A China Resources property under construction in Nanjing, Jiangsu province, China, Sept 24, 2024. 

Cfoto | Future Publishing | Getty Images

BEIJING — China’s slowing economy needs more than interest rate cuts to boost growth, analysts said.

The People’s Bank of China on Tuesday surprised markets by announcing plans to cut a number of rates, including that of existing mortgages. Mainland Chinese stocks jumped on the news.

The move may mark “the beginning of the end of China’s longest deflationary streak since 1999,” Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie, said in a note. The country has been struggling with weak domestic demand.

“The most likely path to reflation, in our view, is through fiscal spending on housing, financed by the PBOC’s balance sheet,” he said, stressing that more fiscal support is needed, in addition to more efforts to bolster the housing market.

The bond market reflected more caution than stocks. The Chinese 10-year government yield fell to a record low of 2% after the rate cut news, before climbing to around 2.07%. That’s still well below the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield of 3.74%. Bond yields move inversely to price.

“We will need major fiscal policy support to see higher CNY government bond yields,” said Edmund Goh, head of China fixed income at abrdn. He expects Beijing will likely ramp up fiscal stimulus due to weak growth, despite reluctance so far.

“The gap between the U.S. and Chinese short end bond rates are wide enough to guarantee that there’s almost no chance that the US rates would drop below those of the Chinese in the next 12 months,” he said. “China is also cutting rates.”

China is in a 'tough spot' but it's still the biggest consumer economy in the region, StepStone says

The differential between U.S. and Chinese government bond yields reflects how market expectations for growth in the world’s two largest economies have diverged. For years, the Chinese yield had traded well above that of the U.S., giving investors an incentive to park capital in the fast-growing developing economy versus slower growth in the U.S.

That changed in April 2022. The Fed’s aggressive rate hikes sent U.S. yields climbing above their Chinese counterpart for the first time in more than a decade.

The trend has persisted, with the gap between the U.S. and Chinese yields widening even after the Fed shifted to an easing cycle last week.

“The market is forming a medium to long-term expectation on the U.S. growth rate, the inflation rate. [The Fed] cutting 50 basis points doesn’t change this outlook much,” said Yifei Ding, senior fixed income portfolio manager at Invesco.

As for Chinese government bonds, Ding said the firm has a “neutral” view and expects the Chinese yields to remain relatively low.

China’s economy grew by 5% in the first half of the year, but there are concerns that full-year growth could miss the country’s target of around 5% without additional stimulus. Industrial activity has slowed, while retail sales have grown by barely more than 2% year-on-year in recent months.

Fiscal stimulus hopes

China’s Ministry of Finance has remained conservative. Despite a rare increase in the fiscal deficit to 3.8% in Oct. 2023 with the issuance of special bonds, authorities in March this year reverted to their usual 3% deficit target.

There’s still a 1 trillion yuan shortfall in spending if Beijing is to meet its fiscal target for the year, according to an analysis released Tuesday by CF40, a major Chinese think tank focusing on finance and macroeconomic policy. That’s based on government revenue trends and assuming planned spending goes ahead.

“If general budget revenue growth does not rebound significantly in the second half of the year, it may be necessary to increase the deficit and issue additional treasury bonds in a timely manner to fill the revenue gap,” the CF40 research report said.

Asked Tuesday about the downward trend in Chinese government bond yields, PBOC Gov. Pan Gongsheng partly attributed it to a slower increase in government bond issuance. He said the central bank was working with the Ministry of Finance on the pace of bond issuance.

The PBOC earlier this year repeatedly warned the market about the risks of piling into a one-sided bet that bond prices would only rise, while yields fell.

Analysts generally don’t expect the Chinese 10-year government bond yield to drop significantly in the near future.

After the PBOC’s announced rate cuts, “market sentiment has changed significantly, and confidence in the acceleration of economic growth has improved,” Haizhong Chang, executive director of Fitch (China) Bohua Credit Ratings, said in an email. “Based on the above changes, we expect that in the short term, the 10-year Chinese treasury bond will run above 2%, and will not easily fall through.”

He pointed out that monetary easing still requires fiscal stimulus “to achieve the effect of expanding credit and transmitting money to the real economy.”

That’s because high leverage in Chinese corporates and households makes them unwilling to borrow more, Chang said. “This has also led to a weakening of the marginal effects of loose monetary policy.”

Breathing room on rates

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate cut last week theoretically eases pressure on Chinese policymakers. Easier U.S. policy weakens the dollar against the Chinese yuan, bolstering exports, a rare bright spot of growth in China.

China’s offshore yuan briefly hit its strongest level against the U.S. dollar in more than a year on Wednesday morning.

“Lower U.S. interest rates provide relief on China’s FX market and capital flows, thus easing the external constraint that the high U.S. rates have imposed on the PBOC’s monetary policy in recent years,” Louis Kuijs, APAC Chief Economist at S&P Global Ratings, pointed out in an email Monday.

For China’s economic growth, he is still looking for more fiscal stimulus: “Fiscal expenditure lags the 2024 budget allocation, bond issuance has been slow, and there are no signs of substantial fiscal stimulus plans.”

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Trump pivot on tariffs shows Wall Street still has a seat at his table

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Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, testifies during the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee hearing titled Annual Oversight of Wall Street Firms, in the Hart Building on Dec. 6, 2023.

Tom Williams | Cq-roll Call, Inc. | Getty Images

With each passing day since President Donald Trump‘s sweeping tariff announcement last week, a growing sense of unease had begun to pervade Wall Street.

As stocks plunged and even the safe haven of U.S. Treasurys were selling off, investors, executives and analysts started to fret that a core assumption from the first Trump presidency may no longer apply.

Amid the market carnage, the world’s most powerful person showed that he had a greater tolerance for inflicting pain on investors than anyone had anticipated. Time after time, he and his deputies denied that the administration would back off from the highest American tariff regime in a century, sometimes inferring that Wall Street would have to suffer so that Main Street could thrive.

“It goes without saying that last week’s price action was shocking to see as the market has begun to rewrite completely its sense for what a second Trump presidency means for the economy,” said R. Scott Siefers, a Piper Sandler analyst, earlier this week.

So it came as a huge relief to investors when, minutes after 1 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Trump relented by rolling back the highest tariffs on most countries except China, sparking the biggest one-day stock rally for the S&P 500 since the depths of the 2008 financial crisis.

Despite a presidency in which Trump has tested the limits of executive power — bulldozing federal agencies and laying off thousands of government employees, for example — the episode shows that the market, and by proxy Wall Street statesmen like JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon who can explain its gyrations, are still guardrails on the administration.

Later Wednesday afternoon, Trump told reporters that he pivoted after seeing how markets were reacting — getting “yippy,” in his words — and took to heart Dimon’s warning in a morning TV appearance that the policy was pushing the U.S. economy into recession.

Dimon’s appearance in a Fox news interview was planned more than a month ago and wasn’t a last-minute decision meant to sway the president, according to a person with knowledge of the JPMorgan CEO’s schedule.

Bond vigilantes

Of particular concern to Trump and his advisors was the fear that his tariff policy could incite a global financial crisis after yields on U.S. government bonds jumped, according to the New York Times, which cited people with knowledge of the president’s thinking.

“The stock market, bond market and capital markets are, to a degree, a governor on the actions that are taken,” said Mike Mayo, the Wells Fargo bank analyst. “You were hearing about parts of the bond market that were under stress, trades that were blowing up. You push so hard, but you don’t want it to break.”

Typically, investors turn to Treasurys in times of uncertainty, but the sell-off indicated that institutional or sovereign players were dumping holdings, leading to higher borrowing costs for the government, businesses and consumers. That could’ve forced the Federal Reserve to intervene, as it has in previous crises, by slashing rates or acting as buyer of last resort for government bonds.

Ed Yardeni on tariff pause: This is a positive development for the economy

“The bond market was anticipating a real crisis,” Ed Yardeni, the veteran markets analyst, told CNBC’s Scott Wapner on Wednesday.

Yardeni said it was the “bond vigilantes” that got Trump’s attention; the term refers to the idea that investors can act as a type of enforcer on government behavior viewed as making it less likely they’ll get repaid.

Amid the market churn, Wall Street executives had reportedly worried that they didn’t have the influence they did under the first Trump administration, when ex-Goldman partners including Steven Mnuchin and Gary Cohn could be relied upon.

But this last week also showed investors that, in his mission to remake the global order of the past century, Trump is willing to take his adversarial approach with trading partners and the larger economy to the knife’s edge, which only invites more volatility.

‘Chaos discount’

Banks, closely watched for the central role they play in lending to corporations and consumers, entered the year with great enthusiasm after Trump’s election.

The setup was as promising as it had been in decades, according to Mayo and other analysts: A strengthening economy would help boost loan demand, while lower interest rates, deregulation and the return of deals activity including mergers and IPO listings would only add fuel to the fire.

Instead, by the last weekend, bank stocks were in a bear market, having given up all their gains since the election, on fears that Trump was steering the economy to recession. Amid the tumult, it’s likely that reports will show that deal-making slowed as corporate leaders adopt a wait-and-see attitude.  

“The chaos discount, we call it,” said Brian Foran, an analyst at Truist bank.

Foran and other analysts said the Trump factor made it difficult to forecast whether the economy was heading for recession, which banks would be winners and losers in a trade war and, therefore, how much they should be worth.

Investors will next focus on JPMorgan, which kicks off the first-quarter earnings season on Friday. They will likely press Dimon and other CEOs about the health of the economy and how consumers and businesses are faring during tariff negotiations.

Wednesday’s reprieve could prove short lived. The day after Trump’s announcement and the historic rally, markets continued to decline. There remains a trade dispute between the world’s two largest economies, each with their own needs and vulnerabilities, and an unclear path to compromise. And universal tariffs of 10% are still in effect.

“We got close, and that’s a very uncomfortable place to be,” Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic advisor of Allianz, the Munich-based asset manager, said Wednesday on CNBC, referring to a crisis in which the Fed would need to step in.  

“We don’t want to get there again,” he said. “The more you get to that point repeatedly, the higher the risk that you’re going to cross it.”

The Fed got very close to having to intervene due to market malfunction, says Allianz's Mohamed El-Erian

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How the mother of all ‘short squeezes’ helped drive stocks to historic gains Wednesday

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A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during afternoon trading on April 9, 2025 in New York. 

Angela Weiss | Afp | Getty Images

A massive number of hedge fund short sellers rushed to close out their positions during Wednesday afternoon’s sudden surge in stocks, turning a stunning rally into one for the history books.

Traders — betting on share price declines — had piled on a record number of short bets against the U.S. stocks ahead of Wednesday as President Donald Trump initially rolled out steeper-than-expected tariffs.

In order to sell short, hedge funds borrow the security they’re betting against from a bank and sell it. Then as the security decreases in price from where they sold it, they buy it back more cheaply and return it to the bank, profiting from the difference.

But sometimes that can backfire.

As stocks soared on news of the tariff pause, hedge funds were forced to buy back their borrowed stocks rapidly in order to limit their losses, a Wall Street phenomenon known as a short squeeze. With this artificial buying force pushing it higher, the S&P 500 ended up with its third-biggest gain since World War II.

Coming into Wednesday, short positioning was almost twice as much as the size seen in the first quarter of 2020 amid the onset of the Covid pandemic, according to Bank of America. As funds ran to cover, a basket of the most shorted stocks surged by 12.5% Wednesday, according to Goldman Sachs, pulling off a larger jump than the S&P 500‘s 9.5% gain.

And a whopping 30 billion shares traded on U.S. exchanges during the session, marking the heaviest volume day on record, according to Nasdaq and FactSet data going back 18 years.

“You can’t catch a move. When you see someone short covering, the exit doors become so small because of these crowded trades,” said Jeff Kilburg, KKM Financial CEO and CIO. “We live in a world where there’s more and more twitchiness to the marketplace, there’s more and more paranoia.”

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Of course, there were real buyers too. Long-only funds bought a record amount of tech stocks during the session, especially the last three hours of the day, according to data from Bank of America.

But traders credit the shorts running for cover for the magnitude of the move.

“The pain on the short side is palpable; the whipsaw we have witnessed the past few weeks is extreme,” Oppenheimer’s trading desk said in a note. “What we saw in tech on that rise was obviously covering but more so real buyers adding on to higher quality semis.”

Thin liquidity also played a role in Wednesday’s monster moves. The size of stock futures (CME E-Mini S&P 500 Futures) one can trade with the click of your mouse dropped to an all-time low of $2 million on Monday, according to Goldman Sachs data. Drastically thin markets tends to fuel outsized price swings. 

Markets were pulling back Thursday as investors realized the economy is still in danger from super-high China tariffs and the uncertainty that daily negotiations with other countries will bring over the next three months.

There are still big short positions left in the market, traders said.

That could fuel things again, if the market starts to rally again.

“The desk view is that short covering is far from over,” Bank of America’s trading desk said in a note. “Our reasoning is that the market can’t de-risk a short in less than 3 hours which provided 20%+ SPX Index downside & major reduction in NET LEVERAGE over 7 seven weeks.”

“No shot it cleared in less than 3 hours,” Bank of America said.

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Stocks making the biggest moves midday: Capri, Janover, Harley-Davidson, CarMax, U.S. Steel and more

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These are the stocks posting the largest moves in midday trading.

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