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UniCredit’s pursuit of Commerzbank is a watershed moment for Europe

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A man shelters from the rain under an umbrella as he walks past the Euro currency sign in front of the former European Central Bank (ECB) building in Frankfurt am Main, western Germany.

Kirill Kudryavtsev | Afp | Getty Images

European banking’s latest takeover battle is widely regarded as a potential turning point for the region — particularly the bloc’s incomplete banking union.

Italy’s UniCredit has ratcheted up the pressure on Frankfurt-based Commerzbank in recent weeks as it seeks to become the biggest investor in Germany’s second-largest lender with a 21% stake.

The Milan-based bank, which took a 9% stake in Commerzbank earlier this month, appears to have caught German authorities off guard with the potential multibillion-euro merger.

“The long-discussed move by UniCredit, Italy’s number one bank, to seek control of Germany’s Commerzbank is a watershed for Germany and Europe,” David Marsh, chairman of London-based OMFIF, an organization that tracks central banking and economic policy, said Tuesday in a written commentary.

Whatever the outcome of UniCredit’s swoop on Commerzbank, Marsh said the episode marks “another huge test” for German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

Commerzbank's CEO pick Bettina Orlopp can hit the ground running, 7Square founder says

The embattled German leader is firmly opposed to the apparent takeover attempt and has reportedly described UniCredit’s move as an “unfriendly” and “hostile” attack.

“The dispute between Germany and Italy over UniCredit’s takeover manoeuvres – branded by Scholz an unfriendly act – threatens to inflame relations between two of the Big Three member states of the European Union,” Marsh said.

“A compromise could still be found,” he continued. “But the hostility developing in Italy and Germany could scupper any meaningful steps towards completing banking union and capital markets integration, which all sides say is necessary to drag Europe out of its malaise.”

What is Europe’s banking union?

Designed in the wake of the 2008 global financial crisis, the European Union’s executive arm in 2012 announced plans to create a banking union to make sure that lenders across the region were stronger and better supervised.

The project, which became a reality in 2014 when the European Central Bank assumed its role as a banking supervisor, is widely considered to be incomplete. For instance, the lack of a European deposit insurance scheme (EDIS) is one of a number of factors that has been cited as a barrier to progress.

European leaders, including Germany’s Scholz, have repeatedly called for greater integration in Europe’s banking sector.

OMFIF’s Marsh said Germany’s opposition to UniCredit’s move on Commerzbank means Berlin “now stands accused of favouring European banking integration only on its own terms.”

A spokesperson for Germany’s government did not immediately respond when contacted by CNBC for comment.

The logo of German bank Commerzbank seen on a branch office near The Commerzbank Tower in Frankfurt.

Daniel Roland | Afp | Getty Images

Hostile takeover bids are not common in the European banking sector, although Spanish bank BBVA shocked markets in May when it launched an all-share takeover offer for domestic rival Banco Sabadell.

The head of Banco Sabadell said earlier this month that it is highly unlikely BBVA will succeed with its multi-billion-euro hostile bid, Reuters reported. And yet, BBVA CEO Onur Genç told CNBC on Wednesday that the takeover was “moving according to plan.”

Spanish authorities, which have the power to block any merger or acquisition of a bank, have voiced their opposition to BBVA’s hostile takeover bid, citing potentially harmful effects on the county’s financial system.

Mario Centeno, a member of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council, told CNBC’s “Street Signs Europe” on Tuesday that European policymakers have been working for more than a decade to establish a “true banking union” — and continue to do so.

The unfinished project means that the intervention framework for banking crises continues to be “an awkward mix” of national and EU authorities and instruments, according to Brussels-based think tank Bruegel.

ECB's Centeno on banking consolidation in Europe

Asked whether comments opposing banking consolidation from leading politicians in both Germany and Spain were a source of frustration, the ECB’s Centeno replied, “We have been working very hard in Europe to bring [the] banking union to completion. There are still some issues on the table, that we all know.”

What happens next?

Thomas Schweppe, founder of Frankfurt-based advisory firm 7Square and a former Goldman mergers and acquisitions banker, said Germany’s decision — intentional or otherwise — to sell a small 4.5% stake to UniCredit earlier this month meant the bank was now “in play” for a potential takeover.

“I think we are, you know, proposing a European banking landscape and also in Germany, they are a proponent of strong European banks that have a good capital base and are managed well,” Schweppe told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Wednesday.

“If we mean this seriously, I think we need to accept that European consolidation also means that a German bank becomes the acquired party,” he added.

Asked for a timeline on how long the UniCredit-Commerzbank saga was likely to drag on, Schweppe said it could run for months, “if not a year or more.” He cited a lengthy regulatory process and the need for talks between all stakeholders to find a “palatable” solution.

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Buffett denies social media rumors after Trump shares wild claim that investor backs president crashing market

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Berkshire Hathaway responds to 'false reports' on social media

Warren Buffett went on the record Friday to deny social media posts after President Donald Trump shared on Truth Social a fan video that claimed the president is tanking the stock market on purpose with the endorsement of the legendary investor.

Trump on Friday shared an outlandish social media video that defends his recent policy decisions by arguing he is deliberately taking down the market as a strategic play to force lower interest and mortgage rates.

“Trump is crashing the stock market by 20% this month, but he’s doing it on purpose,” alleged the video, which Trump posted on his Truth Social account.

The video’s narrator then falsely states, “And this is why Warren Buffett just said, ‘Trump is making the best economic moves he’s seen in over 50 years.'”

The president shared a link to an X post from the account @AmericaPapaBear, a self-described “Trumper to the end.” The X post itself appears to be a repost of a weeks-old TikTok video from user @wnnsa11. The video has been shared more than 2,000 times on Truth Social and nearly 10,000 times on X.

Buffett, 94, didn’t single out any specific posts, but his conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway outright rejected all comments claimed to be made by him.

“There are reports currently circulating on social media (including Twitter, Facebook and Tik Tok) regarding comments allegedly made by Warren E. Buffett. All such reports are false,” the company said in a statement Friday.

CNBC’s Becky Quick spoke to Buffett Friday about this statement and he said he wanted to knock down misinformation in an age where false rumors can be blasted around instantaneously. Buffett told Quick that he won’t make any commentary related to the markets, the economy or tariffs between now and Berkshire’s annual meeting on May 3.

‘A tax on goods’

While Buffett hasn’t spoken about this week’s imposition of sweeping tariffs from the Trump administration, his view on such things has pretty much always been negative. Just in March, the Berkshire CEO and chairman called tariffs “an act of war, to some degree.”

“Over time, they are a tax on goods. I mean, the tooth fairy doesn’t pay ’em!” Buffett said in the news interview with a laugh. “And then what? You always have to ask that question in economics. You always say, ‘And then what?'”

During Trump’s first term, Buffett opined at length in 2018 and 2019 about the trade conflicts that erupted, warning that the Republican’s aggressive moves could cause negative consequences globally.

“If we actually have a trade war, it will be bad for the whole world … everything intersects in the world,” Buffett said in a CNBC interview in 2019. “A world that adjusts to something very close to free trade … more people will live better than in a world with significant tariffs and shifting tariffs over time.”

Buffett has been in a defensive mode over the past year as he rapidly dumped stocks and raised a record amount of cash exceeding $300 billion. His conglomerate has a big U.S. focus and has large businesses in insurance, railroads, manufacturing, energy and retail.

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Stocks making the biggest moves midday: PLTR, CAT, AAPL JPM

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Powell sees tariffs raising inflation and says Fed will wait before further rate moves

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US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell holds a press conference after the Monetary Policy Committee meeting, at the Federal Reserve in Washington, DC on March 19, 2025. 

Roberto Schmidt | Afp | Getty Images

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Friday that he expects President Donald Trump’s tariffs to raise inflation and lower growth, and indicated that the central bank won’t move on interest rates until it gets a clearer picture on the ultimate impacts.

In a speech delivered before business journalists in Arlington, Va., Powell said the Fed faces a “highly uncertain outlook” because of the new reciprocal levies the president announced Wednesday.

Though he said the economy currently looks strong, he stressed the threat that tariffs pose and indicated that the Fed will be focused on keeping inflation in check.

“Our obligation is to keep longer-term inflation expectations well anchored and to make certain that a one-time increase in the price level does not become an ongoing inflation problem,” Powell said in prepared remarks. “We are well positioned to wait for greater clarity before considering any adjustments to our policy stance. It is too soon to say what will be the appropriate path for monetary policy.”

The remarks came shortly after Trump called on Powell to “stop playing politics” and cut interest rates because inflation is down.

There’s been a torrent of selling on Wall Street following the Trump announcement of 10% across-the-board tariffs, along with a menu of reciprocal charges that are much higher for many key trading partners.

Powell noted that the announced tariffs were “significantly larger than expected.”

“The same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth,” he said. “The size and duration of these effects remain uncertain.”

Focused on inflation

While Powell was circumspect about how the Fed will react to the changes, markets are pricing in an aggressive set of interest rate cuts starting in June, with a rising likelihood that the central bank will slice at least a full percentage point off its key borrowing rate by the end of the year, according to CME Group data.

However, the Fed is charged with keeping inflation anchored with full employment.

Powell stressed that meeting the inflation side of its mandate will require keeping inflation expectations in check, something that might not be easy to do with Trump lobbing tariffs at U.S. trading partners, some of whom already have announced retaliatory measures.

A greater focus on inflation also would be likely to deter the Fed from easing policy until it assesses what longer-term impact tariffs will have on prices. Typically, policymakers view tariffs as just a temporary rise in prices and not a fundamental inflation driver, but the broad nature of Trump’s move could change that perspective.

“While tariffs are highly likely to generate at least a temporary rise in inflation, it is also possible that the effects could be more persistent,” Powell said. “Avoiding that outcome would depend on keeping longer-term inflation expectations well anchored, on the size of the effects, and on how long it takes for them to pass through fully to prices.”

Core inflation ran at a 2.8% annual rate in February, part of a general moderating pattern that is nonetheless still well above the Fed’s 2% target.

In spite of the elevated anxiety over tariffs, Powell said the economy for now “is still in a good place,” with a solid labor market. However, he mentioned recent consumer surveys showing rising concerns about inflation and dimming expectations for future growth, pointing out that longer-term inflation expectations are still in line with the Fed’s objectives.

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