China’s surging stock market after the government outlined plans to boost the economy has suddenly tipped hedge funds and strategists to what would have recently been seen as one of the most contrarian trades around. The CSI 300, an index of stocks traded in Shanghai and Shenzhen, rallied more than 15% last week, its best week since 2008 . Earlier this year, the CSI 300 fell to six-year-lows. “There is no question that shares of quality businesses will bottom well ahead of final index bottoms,” a team led by JPMorgan chief China equity strategist Wendy Liu wrote in a report Friday. Until the government’s measures pan out, investment strategists are recommending a handful of oversold stocks in China. JPMorgan highlighted three stock picks for near-term upside: Shanghai-listed beer company Tsingtao , U.S.-listed retailer Miniso and machinery company Zhejiang Dingli, also traded in Shanghai. “Our focus here and over the next several quarters will be on finding quality businesses that trade at undemanding valuation[s],” the report said. Adding exposure That newfound enthusiasm was contagious. “We believe it is a good time to add back China exposure,” Rupal Agarwal, director, Asia quantitative strategist at Bernstein, said in a note Friday. “We would wait to see clear signs of inflection on property/consumer sentiment and earnings growth to become more positive over the medium-term,” she said. “For now, we believe tactically, the rally has legs.” Two stocks Bernstein analysts found that have triple-digit six-month earnings momentum are U.S.-listed after-school operator Tal Education and Shanghai-listed Seres , which manufactures cars for the Aito EV brand developed with Huawei. The stocks appeared on a screen searching for beneficiaries of domestic demand that was confined to companies trading at least 20% below peak levels reached in May and with positive 12-month earnings forecasts. U.S. hedge fund billionaire David Tepper said Thursday on CNBC’s ” Squawk Box ” that he bought more Chinese stocks after the change in China policy. Asked about the potential impact of increased U.S. tariffs, which former President Donald Trump has primised to extend if elected in November, Tepper said he didn’t care. Instead, Tepper stressed how Beijing’s latest policy focuses on “internal stimulus,” and said Chinese stocks are cheaper than those in the U.S. “You’re sitting there with single multiple P/Es with double-digit growth rate s for the big stocks that trade over here,” Tepper said. That’s versus, “you know, the 20-plus on the S & P.” Shifting sentiment Sentiment toward Chinese stocks shifted after the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) Governor Pan Gongsheng on Tuesday announced rate cuts at a rare press conference held alongside the head of securities regulation and other officials. Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday then led a high-level meeting that affirmed those policy moves. The leaders also called for a halt in the real estate slump and for strengthening fiscal and monetary policy. In reaction to the brightened prospects, short-term traders have bought Chinese stocks for eight straight days, Scott Rubner, managing director for global markets and tactical specialist at Goldman Sachs, said in a trading note Thursday. “Re-Emerging Markets have quickly become a favored post-U.S. election trade for November and December,” Rubner said, noting, “I have done more Zoom calls on China in the past 48 hours than all of 2024.” Global mutual funds in aggregate allocated 5.1% of their portfolios to Chinese stocks as of the end of August, near the lowest levels of the past decade, while hedge funds were around a five-year low of less than 7%, according to data collected by Goldman. That hedge fund allocation rose to 7.3% on Tuesday, which saw the largest single day purchases by hedge funds since March 2021, Rubner said. The renewed interest in Chinese stocks comes after institutions had cut their exposure there due to sluggish growth prospects, mounting debt woes and an alarming slump in the property market . Some international investors have also steered clear over concerns about U.S.-China tensions. To be sure, few are betting on an unimpeded, all-out rally from here, especially since China hasn’t formalized the details of fiscal policy. Chinese companies trade primarily in the U.S., Hong Kong and the mainland. Retail investors account for the majority of trading activity in mainland Chinese stocks, also known as A shares. “Trading sentiment has always been affected by policies and has fluctuated greatly,” Li Dongfang, a Beijing-based finance blogger, said in Chinese, translated by CNBC. He bought some A shares and Hong Kong-traded exchange traded funds, and is optimistic on liquor, new energy vehicle and photovoltaic stocks. “The A share market has always had a market bottom after the policy” starts to turn supportive, Li said, noting he expects it will take time for the market to consolidate after the latest gains followed earlier losses. The PBOC’s policy announcements support further flows into the stock market, allowing ETFs to be used as collateral for institutional loans, and allowing major shareholders to borrow from banks for stock repurchases, Li said. “Ongoing short squeeze likely further fueled the strong market performance [Friday], with property, consumer staples, and consumer discretionary outperforming in the HK market, and property, consumer staples, and financials outperforming in the A-share market,” JPMorgan said. Mainland Chinese stock exchanges are scheduled to close from Oct. 1 to Oct. 7 for a holiday, which this year commemorates the 75th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China. — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
Ted Pick, CEO Morgan Stanley, speaking on CNBC’s Squawk Box at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos, Switzerland on Jan. 18th, 2024.
Adam Galici | CNBC
Morgan Stanley topped analysts’ estimates for third quarter profit as its wealth management, trading and investment banking operations generated more revenue than expected.
Here’s what the company reported:
Earnings:$1.88 a share vs $1.58 LSEG estimate
Revenue: $15.38 billion vs. $14.41 billion estimate
Morgan Stanley had several tailwinds in its favor. The bank’s massive wealth management business was helped by high stock market values in the quarter, which inflates the management fees the bank collects.
Investment banking has rebounded after a dismal 2023, a trend that may continue as easing rates will encourage more financing and merger activity.
Finally, its Wall Street rivals have posted better-than-expected trading results, making it unlikely that the firm missed out on elevated activity.
Chinese e-commerce company Alibaba has invested heavily in its fast-growing international business as growth slows for its China-focused Taobao and Tmall business.
Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images
BEIJING — Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba‘s international arm on Wednesday launched an updated version of its artificial intelligence-powered translation tool that, it says, is better than products offered by Google, DeepL and ChatGPT.
Alibaba’s fast-growing international unit released the AI translation product as an update to one unveiled about a year ago, which it says already has 500,000 merchant users. Sellers based in one country can use the translation tool to create product pages in the language of the target market.
The new version is based only on large language models, allowing it to draw on contextual clues such as culture or industry-specific terms, Kaifu Zhang, vice president of Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group and head of the business’ artificial intelligence initiative, told CNBC in an interview Tuesday.
“The idea is that we want this AI tool to help the bottom line of the merchants, because if the merchants are doing well, the platform will be doing well,” he said.
Large language models power artificial intelligence applications such as OpenAI’s ChatGPT, which can also translate text. The models, trained on massive amounts of data, can generate humanlike responses to user prompts.
Alibaba’s translation tool is based on its own model called Qwen. The product supports 15 languages: Arabic, Chinese, Dutch, English, French, German, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Polish, Portuguese, Russian, Spanish, Turkish and Ukrainian.
Zhang said he expects “substantial demand” for the tool from Europe and the Americas. He also expects emerging markets to be a significant area of use.
When users of Alibaba.com — a site for suppliers to sell to businesses — are categorized by country, developing countries account for about half of the top 20 active AI tool users, Zhang said.
Chinese companies have increasingly looked abroad for growth opportunities, especially e-commerce merchants. PDD Holdings‘ Temu, fast fashion seller Shein and ByteDance’s TikTok are among the recent global market entrants. Many China-based merchants also sell on Amazon.com.
Zhang declined to share how much the updated version would cost. He said it was included in some service bundles for merchants wanting simple exposure to overseas users.
His thinking is that contextual translation makes it much more likely that consumers decide to buy. He shared an example in which a colloquial Chinese description for a slipper would have turned off English-speaking consumers if it was only translated literally, without getting at the implied meaning.
“The updated translation engine is going to make Double 11 a better experience for consumers because of more authentic expression,” Zhang said, in reference to the Alibaba-led shopping festival that centers on Nov. 11 each year.
Alibaba’s international business includes platforms such as AliExpress and Lazada, which primarily targets Southeast Asia. The international unit reported sales growth of 32% to $4.03 billion in the quarter ended June from a year ago.
That’s in contrast to a 1% year-on-year drop in sales to $15.6 billion for Alibaba’s main Taobao and Tmall e-commerce business, which has focused on China.
Nomura analysts expect that Alibaba’s international revenue slowed slightly to 29% year-on-year growth in the quarter ended September, while operating losses narrowed, according to an Oct. 10 report. Alibaba has yet to announce when it will release quarterly earnings.
Check out the companies making headlines in midday trading: UnitedHealth — Shares plunged 7.2% after the health-care giant lowered its earnings guidance due to ongoing headwinds from a cyberattack earlier in the year. UnitedHealth cut the top end of its full-year earnings forecast, which is now $27.50 to $27.75 per share, compared to previous guidance of $27.50 to $28.00 per share. UnitedHealth still reported a top- and bottom-line beat in the third quarter. Walgreens Boots Alliance — The stock soared 11.9% following the drugstore chain’s fiscal fourth-quarter earnings and revenue beat. Walgreens also plans to close about 1,200 stores over the next three years, which will be “immediately accretive” to its adjusted earnings and cash flow, the company said. ASML — Shares dropped more than 16% after the Dutch semiconductor equipment maker released its earnings report early and offered a weaker-than-expected sales outlook for 2025. The company’s CEO also warned of a “more gradual” recovery ahead. Other chip stocks fell as well, with Nvidia , Advanced Micro Devices and Broadcom last down at least 4% each. Wolfspeed — Shares popped 23% on news that the North Carolina-based chipmaker will obtain up to $750 million in U.S. government grants for its new factories in North Carolina and New York. A group of investors including Apollo and Baupost will provide an additional $750 million in funding for its more than $6 billion plan. Bank of America — The lender saw shares gain 2% after it exceeded analysts’ estimates for third-quarter profit and revenue on better-than-expected trading results. Net interest income, one of the key ways that banks make money, fell 2.9% to $14.1 billion, edging out the $14.06 billion StreetAccount estimate. Enphase Energy — Shares slid 6.8% on the back of a downgrade to sector perform from outperform by RBC Capital Markets. The firm said Enphase should grow at a slower rate than the consensus forecast pencils in. Johnson & Johnson — The health-care conglomerate gained 1.6% after posting quarterly results that exceeded expectations on the back of strong sales of oncology drugs. Johnson & Johnson reported adjusted earnings per share of $2.42 and $22.47 billion in revenue. Meanwhile, analysts surveyed by LSEG had forecast $2.21 in earnings per share on $22.16 billion in revenue. The firm also raised guidance for its 2024 profit and sales. Energy stocks — Energy stocks declined as oil prices dropped about 5% , with the sector last down more than 2%. APA was the biggest laggard, tumbling 6%. Diamondback Energy tanked 4.3%, while Occidental Petroleum , Valero Energy and Halliburton lost more than 3% each. Coty — The CoverGirl parent plunged 11% after trimming its fiscal first-quarter guidance and warning of slower growth trends in the U.S. Citigroup — Shares lost about 4% despite stronger-than-expected third-quarter earnings . The bank posted earnings per share of $1.51 on $20.32 billion in revenue. Analysts polled by LSEG had anticipated earnings of $1.31 per share on revenue of $19.48 billion. Charles Schwab — Shares of the brokerage company rallied more than 8% as third-quarter results topped analysts’ expectations. The company posted earnings of 77 cents, excluding one-time items, on $4.85 billion in revenue. PNC Financial — The Pittsburgh-based regional bank rose more than 3% on a better-than-expected earnings report. Earnings came in at $3.49, topping an LSEG estimate of $3.30 per share. The company reported $5.43 billion in revenue, topping a forecast of $5.39 billion. Boeing — Shares added about 2.1% after the aircraft manufacturer said it could raise up to $25 billion in debt and shares to increase liquidity. — CNBC’s Yun Li, Alex Harring, Hakyung Kim, Michelle Fox, Pia Singh, Sarah Min contributed reporting.