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The 2024 election’s consequences on tax

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The 2024 election has the potential to be one of the most consequential for the American tax system in recent memory.

This is largely due to the sunsetting provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which will either expire and revert to their pre-TCJA rules or will be replaced by new legislation — making who wins what on Nov. 5 especially critical.

“The conversation will change once we understand the balance of power heading into the 119th Congress,” said Kasey Pittman, director of tax policy at the Washington tax council practice of Top 10 Firm Baker Tilly. “We’ll be able to be a little bit more focused on potential outcomes.”

For example, research and experimental deductions are certainly on the table, according to Pittman. “We saw pervasive support for that in a bipartisan bill in the House at the beginning of the year,” she said. “The vote tally was 374 for the bill, and 70 against. The bill included three TCJA provisions that have already changed or begun to sunset — the Section 174 deduction, the calculation of [adjusted taxable income] for the Section 163(j) limitation, and the phaseout of bonus depreciation.” 

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Alex Wroblewski/Bloomberg

The bill failed in the Senate but not due to lack of support for the business provisions, according to Pittman. 

“There was some politics involved. For example Senator Crapo, believing that Republicans will have more leverage after the 2024 election, didn’t wish to provide as much support for changes to the Child Tax Credit as the bipartisan bill called for. The stumbling block in the Child Tax Credit wasn’t the top line amount of the credit, but the refundability of the credit,” she said. “I think there’s just an ideological difference between the parties on how the credit should function.”

The TCJA was passed in late 2017 and took effect in 2018, Pittman observed, and the circumstances of its passage had important ramifications. 

“It was passed using reconciliation, which takes the use of the filibuster off the table in the Senate but comes with certain restrictions, including revenue restrictions within the budget window and an inability to increase the federal deficit outside of the budget window,” Pittman explained. “Republicans weren’t able to fit all of their priorities into these parameters permanently, so some provisions were made temporary. The corporate tax rate, which was what I consider the headline of the tax bill, was made permanent, but a lot of other provisions, including the individual rate cuts, were temporary and will expire at the end of 2025.”

“The Child Tax Credit was increased from $1,000 to $2,000,” she continued. “Personal exemptions were eliminated, and itemized deductions changed to include the SALT cap. Less of a factor will be the sunset of the increased estate tax exemption. But overall, there is no individual taxpayer in the United States who will not be affected by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act expirations.”

Although it’s not talked about as much, there is a bipartisan consensus in that Democrats also would like to extend tax cuts — the TCJA or an equivalent regime, according to Pittman.

“We haven’t seen the detail for taxpayers making under $400,000 and that’s the vast majority of taxpayers,” she said. “So I think there is alignment in that Democrats and Republicans don’t want to see tax increases. They don’t want the TCJA to sunset for taxpayers making under $400,000 a year. The parties diverge on cuts for those making over $400,000.”

Wealth and gains

There is currently much misinformation going around regarding the taxation of unrealized gains, according to Pittman. There was an example on TikTok that suggested that if you buy a house for $200,000 and its value increases to $400,000, you have to fork over $50,000 on the $200,000 appreciation. “That’s just not the case, so we’re combating misinformation here.”

There are actually at least three proposals for a wealth tax, according to Pittman. Sen. Ron Wyden, chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, has one proposal, Senator Elizabeth Warren has a separate proposal, and the Biden Fiscal Year 2025 Green Book, which vice president and presidential contender Kamala Harris has said she supports, has a third. 

“All three of these proposals are different,” said Pittman. “But we don’t think it’s likely that this will become law, and here’s why: First, there would need to be a Democratic sweep, and the math in the Senate isn’t supportive of that. There are 33 normal seats and one special election, so there are 34 seats up for election. Of these, 23 are Democratic seats and only 10 are Republican seats. So Democrats have to defend more than double the number of seats than Republicans do, and we already know that Sen. Joe Manchin’s seat is very, very likely to flip. So if you flip Sen. Manchin’s seat, that means Democrats have to defend every single other seat, just to wind up with a 50-50 split in the Senate. And almost all of the toss-up or competitive states currently have Democratic incumbents. And even with a Democratic sweep, it would still be necessary to get everyone on the same page, and not every Democrat has voiced support for such a tax.”

Moreover, if they were successful in passing a wealth tax on unrealized appreciation in assets, it’s very likely to face a challenge from the right. 

“A recent Supreme Court decision was ultimately silent on whether there needs to be a realization to have a tax,” Pittman said. “Four justices noted that they believe that there is a realization requirement, one justice noted that she does not believe there is such a requirement, and the other four justices were silent. So the likelihood of it being enacted and then withstanding challenges seems very low.”

David Wagner, head of equity and portfolio manager at Aptus Capital Advisors, agreed that there is likely to be at least a split Congress, with Republicans taking control of the Senate. He believes that the Republicans are likely to win both West Virginia and Montana, giving them control of the Senate. This will limit the size and level of tax increases if it happens. The current statutory rate on domestic corporate income is 21% — down from 35% in 2017 — but the total effective tax rate paid by the typical S&P 500 company is 19%. Although many of the individual cuts will sunset in 2025, the corporate rate will not change. 

Looking back at the TCJA in 2017, Wagner said that the S&P 500 rallied by the same amount as the earnings boost it received. From November 2017 to January 2018, the market rallied 10%, as earnings were expected to get a one-time boost of 11%. This suggests that it is too early to make a tangible investment call solely due to taxes.

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Accounting

IAASB tweaks standards on working with outside experts

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The International Auditing and Assurance Standards Board is proposing to tailor some of its standards to align with recent additions to the International Ethics Standards Board for Accountants’ International Code of Ethics for Professional Accountants when it comes to using the work of an external expert.

The proposed narrow-scope amendments involve minor changes to several IAASB standards:

  • ISA 620, Using the Work of an Auditor’s Expert;
  • ISRE 2400 (Revised), Engagements to Review Historical Financial Statements;
  • ISAE 3000 (Revised), Assurance Engagements Other than Audits or Reviews of Historical Financial Information;
  • ISRS 4400 (Revised), Agreed-upon Procedures Engagements.

The IAASB is asking for comments via a digital response template that can be found on the IAASB website by July 24, 2025.

In December 2023, the IESBA approved an exposure draft for proposed revisions to the IESBA’s Code of Ethics related to using the work of an external expert. The proposals included three new sections to the Code of Ethics, including provisions for professional accountants in public practice; professional accountants in business and sustainability assurance practitioners. The IESBA approved the provisions on using the work of an external expert at its December 2024 meeting, establishing an ethical framework to guide accountants and sustainability assurance practitioners in evaluating whether an external expert has the necessary competence, capabilities and objectivity to use their work, as well as provisions on applying the Ethics Code’s conceptual framework when using the work of an outside expert.  

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Tariffs will hit low-income Americans harder than richest, report says

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President Donald Trump’s tariffs would effectively cause a tax increase for low-income families that is more than three times higher than what wealthier Americans would pay, according to an analysis from the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy.

The report from the progressive think tank outlined the outcomes for Americans of all backgrounds if the tariffs currently in effect remain in place next year. Those making $28,600 or less would have to spend 6.2% more of their income due to higher prices, while the richest Americans with income of at least $914,900 are expected to spend 1.7% more. Middle-income families making between $55,100 and $94,100 would pay 5% more of their earnings. 

Trump has imposed the steepest U.S. duties in more than a century, including a 145% tariff on many products from China, a 25% rate on most imports from Canada and Mexico, duties on some sectors such as steel and aluminum and a baseline 10% tariff on the rest of the country’s trading partners. He suspended higher, customized tariffs on most countries for 90 days.

Economists have warned that costs from tariff increases would ultimately be passed on to U.S. consumers. And while prices will rise for everyone, lower-income families are expected to lose a larger portion of their budgets because they tend to spend more of their earnings on goods, including food and other necessities, compared to wealthier individuals.

Food prices could rise by 2.6% in the short run due to tariffs, according to an estimate from the Yale Budget Lab. Among all goods impacted, consumers are expected to face the steepest price hikes for clothing at 64%, the report showed. 

The Yale Budget Lab projected that the tariffs would result in a loss of $4,700 a year on average for American households.

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Accounting

At Schellman, AI reshapes a firm’s staffing needs

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Artificial intelligence is just getting started in the accounting world, but it is already helping firms like technology specialist Schellman do more things with fewer people, allowing the firm to scale back hiring and reduce headcount in certain areas through natural attrition. 

Schellman CEO Avani Desai said there have definitely been some shifts in headcount at the Top 100 Firm, though she stressed it was nothing dramatic, as it mostly reflects natural attrition combined with being more selective with hiring. She said the firm has already made an internal decision to not reduce headcount in force, as that just indicates they didn’t hire properly the first time. 

“It hasn’t been about reducing roles but evolving how we do work, so there wasn’t one specific date where we ‘started’ the reduction. It’s been more case by case. We’ve held back on refilling certain roles when we saw opportunities to streamline, especially with the use of new technologies like AI,” she said. 

One area where the firm has found such opportunities has been in the testing of certain cybersecurity controls, particularly within the SOC framework. The firm examined all the controls it tests on the service side and asked which ones require human judgment or deep expertise. The answer was a lot of them. But for the ones that don’t, AI algorithms have been able to significantly lighten the load. 

“[If] we don’t refill a role, it’s because the need actually has changed, or the process has improved so significantly [that] the workload is lighter or shared across the smarter system. So that’s what’s happening,” said Desai. 

Outside of client services like SOC control testing and reporting, the firm has found efficiencies in administrative functions as well as certain internal operational processes. On the latter point, Desai noted that Schellman’s engineers, including the chief information officer, have been using AI to help develop code, which means they’re not relying as much on outside expertise on the internal service delivery side of things. There are still people in the development process, but their roles are changing: They’re writing less code, and doing more reviewing of code before it gets pushed into production, saving time and creating efficiencies. 

“The best way for me to say this is, to us, this has been intentional. We paused hiring in a few areas where we saw overlaps, where technology was really working,” said Desai.

However, even in an age awash with AI, Schellman acknowledges there are certain jobs that need a human, at least for now. For example, the firm does assessments for the FedRAMP program, which is needed for cloud service providers to contract with certain government agencies. These assessments, even in the most stable of times, can be long and complex engagements, to say nothing of the less predictable nature of the current government. As such, it does not make as much sense to reduce human staff in this area. 

“The way it is right now for us to do FedRAMP engagements, it’s a very manual process. There’s a lot of back and forth between us and a third party, the government, and we don’t see a lot of overall application or technology help… We’re in the federal space and you can imagine, [with] what’s going on right now, there’s a big changing market condition for clients and their pricing pressure,” said Desai. 

As Schellman reduces staff levels in some places, it is increasing them in others. Desai said the firm is actively hiring in certain areas. In particular, it’s adding staff in technical cybersecurity (e.g., penetration testers), the aforementioned FedRAMP engagements, AI assessment (in line with recently becoming an ISO 42001 certification body) and in some client-facing roles like marketing and sales. 

“So, to me, this isn’t about doing more with less … It’s about doing more of the right things with the right people,” said Desai. 

While these moves have resulted in savings, she said that was never really the point, so whatever the firm has saved from staffing efficiencies it has reinvested in its tech stack to build its service line further. When asked for an example, she said the firm would like to focus more on penetration testing by building a SaaS tool for it. While Schellman has a proof of concept developed, she noted it would take a lot of money and time to deploy a full solution — both of which the firm now has more of because of its efficiency moves. 

“What is the ‘why’ behind these decisions? The ‘why’ for us isn’t what I think you traditionally see, which is ‘We need to get profitability high. We need to have less people do more things.’ That’s not what it is like,” said Desai. “I want to be able to focus on quality. And the only way I think I can focus on quality is if my people are not focusing on things that don’t matter … I feel like I’m in a much better place because the smart people that I’ve hired are working on the riskiest and most complicated things.”

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