Connect with us

Personal Finance

Warren Buffett’s S&P 500 bet paid off. Some experts say it may be time to diversify

Published

on

Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway CEO and chairman.

Cnbc | Nbcuniversal | Getty Images

In 2007, Warren Buffett made a $1 million bet that he could outperform hedge fund managers over the course of a decade by investing in an S&P 500 index fund.

In 2017, he won.

Some individual investors are making similar bets on the S&P 500 with their money, whether it be through exchange-traded funds or mutual funds.

True to its name, the S&P 500 index includes 500 large U.S. companies. The index is market cap-weighted, with each listed company’s weighting based on the total value of all its outstanding shares. The index is rebalanced quarterly.

More from ETF Strategist

Here’s a look at other stories offering insight on ETFs for investors.

The three biggest ETFs track the S&P 500 index, according to Morningstar. They are the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, which trades under the ticker SPY; iShares Core S&P 500 ETF, with ticker IVV; and Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, which trades as VOO. Together, those funds make up almost 17% of the U.S. ETF market, according to Morningstar.

In 2024, VOO has been the leader of those three funds in attracting new money, with $71 billion in net inflows over the first nine months, according to Morningstar, beating the record SPY set in 2023 by $20 billion.

Future index performance could be ‘muted’

The S&P 500 index has continued to make headlines for new all-time highs in 2024. Year to date, the index is up around 20% as of Oct. 8. Over the past 12 months, it has climbed 33%.

That performance has bested some experts’ predictions for the index heading into this year, owing in part to a stronger U.S. economy than had been anticipated.

“That elusive recession everybody was looking for never materialized,” said Larry Adam, chief investment officer at Raymond James.

Now, the St. Petersburg, Florida-based firm is predicting a soft landing for the U.S. economy. Yet the run-up in stocks may not be as strong.

“I think you’re going to see more muted performance — still upward, but more muted,” Adam said.

Fundstrat's Tom Lee on 6,000 S&P 500 year-end target: Setup into year-end has a lot of tailwinds

Historically, from the start of October through Election Day, the market tends to be down, on average, by about 1.5% or so, he said.

“The reason for that is the market doesn’t like uncertainty,” Adam said.

The good news is the market tends to recoup those losses and move higher, he said.

Goldman Sachs just raised its S&P 500 index forecast for 2024 to 6,000 up from 5,600 to reflect expected earnings growth. Tom Lee, Fundstrat Global Advisors managing partner and head of research, also recently told CNBC he’s calling for a target of 6,000 for the S&P 500 by year-end.

S&P 500 ‘hard to beat in the long run’

Investing in the S&P 500 index is a popular strategy.

“There are reasons why it works so well that will never change,” said Bryan Armour, director of passive strategies research at Morningstar.

Among the advantages: It’s low cost, it captures a large portion of the opportunities available to active managers and it’s “hard to beat in the long run,” he said.

“In general, I would say the S&P 500 is better, more well diversified than most investment strategies,” Armour said.

That can allow you to take a set-it-and-forget-it approach and avoid trying to time the market, he said.

However, there are definite risks that come with exclusively investing in an S&P 500 index fund on the equity side of a portfolio.

“The S&P 500 has been the absolute best thing [investors] could have been doing the past seven or eight years,” said Sean Williams, a certified financial planner and principal at Cadence Wealth Partners in Concord, North Carolina.

“There’s a lot of people who have that mentality of, ‘Why would I do anything differently?'” he said.

Generally, it is not a good idea to have everything in any one position, even if it is big U.S. companies that have done very well in the past decade, Williams said.

It always helps to have exposure to other areas, he said, such as international, small- and mid-cap companies, and real estate, for example.

Investing in an S&P 500 index strategy comes with concentration risk. For example, information technology comprises 31.7% of the index, with companies including Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia and Broadcom.

To mitigate that risk, investors may consider moving to a total market portfolio like the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF, which trades under the ticker symbol VTI, which can provide less concentration at the top of the portfolio, Armour said.

Additionally, to get broader exposure, investors may also consider buying a small value ETF, an area that Morningstar analysts currently think is “pretty significantly undervalued,” Armour said.

Continue Reading

Personal Finance

‘SALT’ deduction in limbo as Senate Republicans unveil tax plan

Published

on

U.S. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) speaks at a press conference following the U.S. Senate Republicans’ weekly policy luncheon on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., U.S., June 10, 2025.

Kent Nishimura | Reuters

As Senate Republicans release key details of President Donald Trump‘s spending package, some provisions, including the federal deduction for state and local taxes, known as SALT, remain in limbo.

Enacted via the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, or TCJA, of 2017, there’s currently a $10,000 limit on the SALT deduction through 2025. Before 2018, the tax break — including state and local income and property taxes — was unlimited for filers who itemized deductions. But the so-called alternative minimum tax reduced the benefit for some higher earners.

The Senate Finance Committee’s proposed text released on Monday includes a $10,000 SALT deduction cap, which is expected to change during Senate-House negotiations on the spending package. That limit is down from the $40,000 cap approved by House Republicans in May.

More from Personal Finance:
Fed is likely to hold rates steady this week. What it means for you
How to protect assets amid immigration raids, deportation worries
IRS: Make your second-quarter estimated tax payment by June 16

The SALT deduction has been ‘contentious’

SALT cap is not a senate priority. Here's the latest on the mega bill

However, raising the SALT deduction cap has been controversial. If enacted, benefits would primarily flow to higher-income households, according to a May analysis from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

Currently, the vast majority of filers — roughly 90%, according to the latest IRS data — use the standard deduction and don’t benefit from itemized tax breaks.

Plus, the 2017 SALT cap was enacted to help pay for other TCJA tax breaks, and some lawmakers support the lower limit for funding purposes.

In the Senate, “there isn’t a high level of interest in doing anything on SALT,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune said June 15 on “Fox News Sunday.”

“I think at the end of the day, we’ll find a landing spot, hopefully that will get the votes that we need in the House, a compromise position on the SALT issue,” he said. 

But some House Republicans have already pushed back on the proposed $10,000 SALT deduction cap included in the Senate draft. 

Rep. Mike Lawler, R-N.Y., on Monday described the Senate proposed $10,000 SALT deduction limit as “DEAD ON ARRIVAL” in an X post.

Meanwhile, Rep. Nicole Malliotakis, R-N.Y., on Monday also posted about the $10,000 cap on X. She said the lower limit was “not only insulting but a slap in the face to the Republican districts that delivered our majority and trifecta.”

Continue Reading

Personal Finance

Welcome to the zoo. That’ll be $47 today — ask again tomorrow.

Published

on

Giant panda Bao Li chews on bamboo during his public debut at the Smithsonian’s National Zoo in Washington, U.S., January 24, 2025. 

Kevin Lamarque | Reuters

How much will it cost to visit a museum, zoo or aquarium this summer? The answer, increasingly, is: It depends.

John Linehan can rattle off almost two dozen factors that Zoo New England’s dynamic pricing contractor, Digonex, uses to recommend what to charge guests.

“It’s complicated,” said Linehan, president and CEO of the operator of the two zoos in eastern Massachusetts.

Before adopting dynamic pricing, the organization was changing prices seasonally and increasing entry rates little by little. “As we watched that pattern, we were afraid some families were going to get priced out,” he said of the earlier approach. “I’m a father of four and I know what it is like.”

Now, Zoo New England’s system provides cheaper rates for tickets purchased far in advance. That, coupled with the zoo’s participation in the Mass Cultural Council’s discounted admissions program for low-income and working families, “puts some control back in the consumer’s hands,” Linehan said.

We charge what we need to make ends meet while delivering on our mission.

John Linehan

CEO of Zoo New England

The zoo is one of many attractions embracing pricing systems that were earlier pioneered by airlines, ride-hailing apps and theme parks. While these practices allow operators to lower prices when demand is soft, they also enable the reverse, threatening to squeeze consumers who are increasingly trimming their summer travel budgets.

Before the pandemic, less than 1% of attractions surveyed by Arival, a tourism market research and events firm, used variable or dynamic pricing. Today, 17% use variable pricing, in which entry fees are adjusted based on predictable factors such as the day of the week or the season, Arival said. And 6% use dynamic pricing, in which historical and real-time data on weather, staffing, demand patterns and more influence rates.

The changes come as barely half of U.S. museums, zoos, science centers and similar institutions have fully recovered to their pre-Covid attendance levels, according to the American Alliance of Museums. That has led many to pursue novel ways of filling budget gaps and offsetting cost increases.

“There’s a saying: ‘No margin, no mission,'” Linehan said, “and we charge what we need to make ends meet while delivering on our mission.”

Entry costs are climbing even at attractions that aren’t using price-setting technology. The broad “admissions” category in the federal government’s Consumer Price Index, which includes museum fees alongside sports and concert tickets, climbed 3.9% in May from the year before, well above the annual 2.4% inflation rate.

In 2024, the nonprofit Monterey Bay Aquarium raised adult ticket prices from $59.95 to $65 and recently upped its individual membership rate, which includes year-round admission, from $95 to $125. “Gate admission from ticket sales funds the core operation of the aquarium,” a spokesperson said.

While the Denver Art Museum has no plans to test dynamic pricing, it raised admissions fees last fall, three years after a $175 million renovation and a survey of ticket prices elsewhere, a spokesperson said. Entry costs went from $18 to $22 for Colorado residents and from $22 to $27 for out-of-state visitors. Prices rise on weekends and during busy times, to $25 and $30 for in- and out-of-state visitors, respectively. Guests under age 19 always get in free thanks to a sponsored program.

Some attractions are doing a daily analysis of their bookings over the next several days or weeks and making adjustments.

Douglas Quinby

CEO of Arival

Like many attractions, the art museum posts these prices on its website. But many attractions’ publicly listed ticket prices are liable to fluctuate. The Seattle Aquarium — which raised its price ranges last summer by about $10 ahead of the opening of a new ocean pavilion — also uses Digonex’s algorithmic recommendations.

During the week of June 8, for example, the aquarium’s online visit planner, which displays the relative ticket availability for each day, offered out-of-state adult admissions as low as $37.95 for dates later in the month and as much as $46.95 for walk-in tickets that week. In addition to booking in advance, there are more than half a dozen other discounts available to certain guests, including seniors and tribal and military members, a spokesperson noted.

At many attractions, however, admission fees aren’t even provided until a guest enters the specific day and time they want to visit — making it difficult to know that lower prices may be available at another time.

“Some attractions are doing a daily analysis of their bookings over the next several days or weeks and making adjustments” to prices continuously, said Arival CEO Douglas Quinby. Prices might rise quietly on a day when slots are filling up and dip when tickets don’t seem to be moving, he said.

Digonex, which says it provides automated dynamic pricing services to more than 70 attractions worldwide, offers recommendations as frequently as daily. It’s up to clients to decide how and whether to implement them, a spokesperson said. Each algorithm is tailored to organizations’ goals and can account for everything from weather to capacity constraints and even Google Analytics search patterns.

Data-driven pricing can be “a financial win for both the public and the museum,” said Elizabeth Merritt, vice president of strategic foresight at the American Alliance of Museums. It can reduce overcrowding, she said, while steering budget-minded guests toward dates that are both cheaper and less busy.

The stegosaurus fossil nicknamed Apex is unveiled to the media at the American Museum of Natural History in New York, December 5, 2024. Billionaire Kenneth C. Griffin, who bought the stegosaurus fossil for $44.6 million, is loaning it to the museum for four years. 

Timothy A. Clary | Afp | Getty Images

But steeper prices during peak periods and for short-notice visits could rankle guests — who may see anything less than a top-notch experience as a rip-off, said Stephen Pratt, a professor at the University of Central Florida’s Rosen College of Hospitality Management who studies tourism.

“Because of the higher prices, you want an experience that’s really great,” he said, transforming a low-key day at the zoo into a big-ticket, high-stakes outing. “You’ve invested this money into family time, into creating memories, and you don’t want any service mishaps.”

That could raise the risk of blowback at many attractions, especially those grappling with Trump administration cuts this summer. Some historic sites and national parks have already warned that their operations are under pressure.

Consumers should expect more price complexity to come. Arival said 16% of attractions ranked implementing dynamic pricing as a top priority for 2025-26. Among large attractions serving at least half a million guests annually, 37% are prioritizing dynamic pricing, up from the 12% that use it currently.

For visitors, that could mean hunting harder for cheaper tickets. While many museums are free year-round, others provide lower rates for off-season visits and those booked in advance. It’s also common to reduce or waive fees on certain days or hours, and many kids and seniors can often get discounted entry.

Here are a few other ways to keep admissions costs low:

Ways to save on museum tickets:

“It may take a bit of research,” said Quinby, “but it’s still possible to find a good deal.”

Continue Reading

Personal Finance

What that means for you

Published

on

U.S. President Donald Trump looks on as Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks at the White House in Washington on Nov. 2, 2017.

Carlos Barria | Reuters

Political pressure is mounting against the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, and yet the Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady at the end of its two-day meeting this week.

Despite a wave of recent attacks on Powell from President Donald Trump, futures market pricing is implying virtually no chance of an interest rate cut, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch gauge.

The president has argued that maintaining a fed funds rate that is too high makes it harder for businesses and consumers to borrow, adding more strain to the U.S. economy. The federal funds rate sets what banks charge each other for overnight lending, but also affects many of the borrowing and savings rates most Americans see every day.

More from Personal Finance:
Here’s the inflation breakdown for May 2025
What’s happening with unemployed Americans — in five charts
The economic cost of Trump, Harvard battle over student visas

With a rate cut likely postponed until at least September, consumers struggling under the weight of high prices and high borrowing costs aren’t getting much relief, experts say. 

“The combination of high interest rates, stubborn inflation and economic uncertainty is a pretty challenging one,” said Matt Schulz, chief credit analyst at LendingTree. “Most Americans don’t have a ton of wiggle room and today they have even less.”

From credit cards and mortgage rates to auto loans and savings accounts, here’s a look at how the Fed plays a role in your finances.

Credit cards

Credit card debt continues to be a pain point for consumers struggling to keep up with high prices. Since most credit cards have a variable rate, there’s a direct connection to the Fed’s benchmark.

But even with the Fed on the sidelines, credit card rates have edged higher. The average annual percentage rate is currently just over 20%, according to Bankrate, not far from last year’s all-time high

“This is a sign of banks trying to protect themselves from the risk that is out there in these uncertain times,” Schulz said. However, in this case, there is something consumers can do about higher APRs.

Trump on Fed Chair Powell: Why doesn't he lower rates

“The truth is that people have way more power over the rates they pay than they think they do, especially if they have good credit,” Schulz said.

Rather than wait for a rate cut that may be months away, borrowers could switch now to a zero-interest balance transfer credit card or consolidate and pay off high-interest credit cards with a lower-rate personal loan, he said.

Mortgages

Since 15- and 30-year mortgages are largely tied to Treasury yields and the economy, those rates haven’t moved much — and that hasn’t helped would-be buyers.

The average rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage has stayed within the same narrow range for months and is currently near 6.9%, according to Bankrate. Tack on the nationwide problem of limited inventory and housing affordability remains a key issue, regardless of the Fed’s next move.

“I don’t see any major changes coming in the immediate future, meaning that those shopping for a home this summer should expect rates to remain relatively high,” Schulz said.

Auto loans

Auto loan rates are fixed, and not directly tied to the Fed. But payments are getting bigger because car prices are rising, in part due to impacts from Trump’s trade policy.

Currently, the average rate on a five-year new car loan is 7.24%, according to Bankrate.

The growth in median car payments is outpacing both new and used car prices, according to separate data from Bank of America. Now, of those households with a monthly car payment, 20% pay more than $1,000 a month.

“Combine that with the potential for tariffs to drive auto prices even higher, and it adds up to a really challenging time to buy a car,” Schulz said. “However, shopping for the best rate and getting approved for financing before you ever set foot in the dealership can bring significant savings,” he added.

Student loans

Federal student loan rates are set once a year, based in part on the last 10-year Treasury note auction in May and fixed for the life of the loan, so most borrowers are somewhat shielded from Fed moves and recent economic turmoil.

Current interest rates on undergraduate federal student loans made through June 30 are at 6.53%. Starting July 1, the interest rates will be 6.39%.

Although borrowers with existing federal student debt balances won’t see their rates change, many are now facing other headwinds and fewer federal loan forgiveness options.

Savings

On the upside, top-yielding online savings accounts still offer above-average returns and currently pay more than 4%, according to Bankrate.

While the central bank has no direct influence on deposit rates, the yields tend to be correlated to changes in the target federal funds rate — so holding that rate unchanged has kept savings rates elevated, for now.

“The thing that is lost in this, is that savers, including millions of retirees, are actually earning good income on their savings, provided they have their money parked in a competitive place,” said Greg McBride, Bankrate’s chief financial analyst.

Subscribe to CNBC on YouTube.

Continue Reading

Trending