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Trump wants to make auto loan interest tax-deductible: Here’s who benefits

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Former President Donald Trump departs following an address to the Detroit Economic Club on Oct. 10, 2024.

Sarah Rice/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Former President Donald Trump proposed a new tax deduction last week for car owners who pay interest on an auto loan, one of many tax breaks he has floated on the presidential campaign trail in recent months.

Trump’s proposed tax break would make interest on car loans fully tax deductible. It’s an idea that he compared to the mortgage interest deduction, which allows some homeowners to reduce their taxable income by writing off a portion of their mortgage interest payments each year.

So, which American households would benefit, and how large would the benefit be?

More than 100 million Americans had auto loans in the second quarter of 2024, worth $1.63 trillion, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The average person had a car loan of roughly $24,000 in 2023, according to Experian.

Someone buying a new vehicle this year would pay, on average, about $1,332 a year in interest charges, according to AAA.

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While Trump didn’t offer specific details on how the tax break plan would be implemented, some experts say it would likely provide the most benefits to wealthy Americans.

Such a tax break “mostly would benefit wealthier individuals buying more expensive cars as one has to itemize their taxes to get the tax break,” Jaret Seiberg, financial services and housing policy analyst for TD Cowen Washington Research Group, wrote in a note Thursday.

It’d be “unlikely to benefit entry-level” car sales because such buyers generally have “more modest incomes” and claim a standard deduction on their tax returns, Seiberg wrote.

Either way, the proposal is unlikely to have support among many Democrats or Republicans in Congress, which must pass legislation to adopt the measure, Seiberg said.

A Trump campaign spokesperson didn’t return a request from CNBC for comment or additional detail on the proposal.

It would cost about $5 billion a year

During a speech in Detroit on Thursday, Trump compared the policy proposal to an existing federal tax deduction on home mortgage interest.

That tax break lets homeowners deduct annual mortgage interest payments from their taxable income, thereby reducing their tax bill. It’s only available to taxpayers who itemize deductions on their federal tax returns.

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An auto interest deduction would also come at a large cost to the federal government, experts say. To that point, Trump’s proposal on car loan interest would cost about $5 billion a year in income tax reductions, if structured as an itemized deduction, estimates Erica York, senior economist and research director at the Tax Foundation’s Center for Federal Tax Policy.

It would cost about $61 billion over 10 years, from 2025 through 2034, York estimates.

Few taxpayers claim itemized tax deductions

To get the deduction, car owners would need to itemize their tax return to include their borrowing costs. 

However, most taxpayers — about 9 in 10 — don’t itemize their deductions, experts said. Instead, they claim a standard deduction.

A taxpayer’s total itemized deductions would generally have to exceed the standard deduction — $14,600 for single filers and $29,200 for married couples filing a joint tax return for 2024 — for them to get a financial benefit.

About 14.8 million federal tax returns, or about 9%, claimed an itemized deduction on their 2021 federal tax returns, according to the most recent IRS data.

A 2017 tax law signed by then-President Trump reduced the number of taxpayers who itemize their deductions.

An itemized tax break on car loan interest “would help only a fraction of taxpayers,” said Leonard Burman, an institute fellow at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center.

“This percentage might go up a bit if auto loan interest were deductible, but it’d still be true that the vast majority of household would not be able to benefit, and the ones that did would be disproportionately high-income filers,” Burman explained in an email.

About 62% of people who claimed an itemized deduction in 2021 had an adjusted gross income of $100,000 or more, according to IRS data. Such taxpayers claimed about 77% of the total $660 billion of itemized deductions that year, the data shows.

Wealthier individuals generally get more of a financial benefit from tax deductions, York said.

That’s because the value of the deduction depends on a household’s marginal income tax rate, she said.

Here’s a simple example, using AAA’s aforementioned figure of $1,332 in annual interest charges on new cars. A $1,332 tax deduction for someone in the 10% federal tax bracket would be worth about $133, while it’d be worth $493 to someone in the top 37% bracket, according to Burman.

Precedent for an itemized deduction

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The Roth 401(k) is becoming more common

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Filippobacci | E+ | Getty Images

Retirement savers, take note: more employers have added a Roth savings option to their workplace 401(k) plans.

And, due to a legislative change, it’s likely the remaining holdouts will soon offer it, too.

About 93% of 401(k) plans offered a Roth account in 2023, according to an annual poll published in December by the Plan Sponsor Council of America, an employer trade group.

That’s up from 89% in 2022 and 62% a decade ago, according to the survey, which polled more than 700 employers with 401(k) plans of varying size.

How Roth, pretax 401(k) savings differ

Roth refers to how retirement savings are taxed.

A Roth is an after-tax account: Savers pay tax upfront on their 401(k) contributions but, with some exceptions, don’t pay later when they withdraw money.

Roth conversions on the rise: Here's what to know

By contrast, pretax savings have been the traditional route for 401(k) plans. Savers get an upfront tax break, deferring their tax bill on investment earnings and contributions until later, when they make withdrawals.

It seems like many aren’t taking advantage of Roth availability: About 21% of eligible workers made a Roth contribution in 2023, versus 74% who made a pretax contribution, according to PSCA data.

How to choose between Roth or pretax contributions

Choosing which kind of 401(k) contributions to make — pretax or Roth — largely comes down to your current tax bracket and expectations about your future tax rate, according to financial advisors.

You want to choose the one that will keep your tax bill lowest. In short, it’s a tax bet.

This requires some educated guesswork. For example, many financial advisors recommend Roth accounts for those who are early in their careers, a point at which their tax rate is likely to be lower than in the future, when their salary will almost certainly be higher.

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“We always recommend [Roth] for someone who’s in a low salary, typically the younger working folks,” said Olga Ismail, head of retirement plans consulting at Provenance Wealth Advisors.

“It’s the lowest tax bracket you’re ever going to be in, so why not take advantage of it now if you can?” she said.

A Roth 401(k) also provides a unique savings opportunity. Roth individual retirement accounts — Roth IRAs, for short — have a lower annual contribution limit than 401(k)s and have income caps on eligibility. A 401(k) has no income caps. So, a Roth 401(k) lets higher earners access a Roth account directly, and allows all savers to contribute more money to a Roth account than they could otherwise.

Financial planners also generally recommend diversifying among pretax and Roth savings. This grants tax flexibility in retirement.

For example, strategically withdrawing money from a Roth account for income may keep some retirees from triggering higher premiums for Medicare Part B and Medicare Part D. Those premiums may increase with income — but Roth withdrawals don’t count toward taxable income.

Also, while many people expect their tax rates to decline in retirement, this isn’t always the case.

Why Roth 401(k) adoption will increase

401(k) plans opening to more part-time workers

Workers can save up to $23,000 in a 401(k) for 2024. Those age 50 and older can save an extra $7,500 in catch-up contributions.

“Offering Roth as an option has become a best practice the last few years,” and due to the mandate for high earners, “we will continue to see Roth become commonplace,” said Hattie Greenan, PSCA’s research director.

Additionally, Secure 2.0 allows businesses to make an employer 401(k) contribution like a match as Roth savings. About 13% of employers said they would “definitely” add the option, and another 35% said they’re still considering it, according to PSCA data.

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What it would cost to live like the ‘Home Alone’ family today

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Home Alone (1990)

20th Century Fox

The classic Christmas movie “Home Alone” tells the improbable tale of a family who leaves their 8-year-old son home when they leave for vacation.

Yet in the years since the 1990 film was released, viewers have focused on another question — how wealthy was the fictitious McCallister family featured in the movie?

The family orders 10 pizzas on the eve of their trip, lives in a house that can sleep 15 people (including extended family) and all fly to Paris for the Christmas holiday.

“They’re well off and in a good place financially,” Cody Garrett, a certified financial planner, owner and financial planner at Measure Twice Financial in Houston, said of the first impression of the McCallisters’ circumstances.

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But the family may not be quite as wealthy as they seem, Garrett said.

To better understand the details of the McCallister family’s financial circumstances, Garrett recently did a deep dive analysis of the family’s finances from “Home Alone” and “Home Alone 2: Lost in New York,” which debuted in late 1992, and hosted a webinar with around 25 financial planners to discuss financial planning opportunities that arise in the movies.

Both movies were shot long before social media made it popular to flaunt personal wealth online. Nevertheless, the lifestyle the McCallister family shows to the world may not necessarily be an indication of their wealth, Garrett said.

“There’s a lot of things that are showing that they spent a lot of money, or at least financed a lavish lifestyle to the public,” Garrett said. “But inside their own home, they’re actually maybe a little scared about money.”

What the McCallister lifestyle would be worth now

The Home Alone Experience created by Disney+, opens in London, offering an immersive experience inspired by the Christmas movie, with set recreations of the McCallister family’s home.

David Parry Media Assignments | PA Wire | AP

What looked lavish more than 30 years ago when the first two movies were shot is now even more luxurious today, thanks in large part to the effects of inflation.

The actual five-bedroom, six-bathroom Winnetka, Illinois, home where the movie was filmed was listed for $5.25 million in the spring. Today, it is still under contract, and a final sale price won’t be known until the deal is finalized, according to Zillow spokesperson Matt Kreamer.

To buy the house at $5.25 million today would cost approximately $34,000 per month, with principal, interest and property taxes, according to Kreamer. That’s with 20% down and a 7% mortgage rate.

To comfortably afford the home, you would need $100,000 per month in income, assuming you’re adhering to an affordability threshold of not spending more than one-third of your income on housing costs, Kreamer said.

“It’s a pretty spectacular house, and certainly one of the more famous movie homes that people can instantly recognize,” Kreamer said.

In 1990 when the first movie debuted, the home would have likely been worth a little less than $1 million, Kreamer estimates, which is still high for that time.

Yet the home may not necessarily point to a high net worth for the McCallister movie family.

“I would not be surprised if they don’t have much equity in their house,” Garrett said, given the couple’s stage of life and circumstances.

In the films, the McCallisters are also driving what at the time were relatively new cars — a 1986 Buick Electra Estate Wagon and a 1990 Buick LaSabre — each of which would be valued at $40,000 in today’s dollars, according to Garrett’s estimates.

While the family is eager to show their wealth — including mother Kate paying in cash for the $122.50 pizza bill while also offering a generous tip — they’re frugal when it comes to the things people don’t see, Garrett said.

How the family talks about money can sometimes point to a scarcity mindset, he said. For example, Kate mentions she doesn’t want to waste the family’s milk before they leave on vacation.

The family’s lifestyle isn’t paid for all on their own. Peter’s brother Rob actually foots the cost of the Paris trip for the family. That airfare would cost around $55,650 today, GoBankingRates recently estimated.

What financial planning lessons are hidden in the movie

Many major details about Kate and Peter McCallister’s finances are not disclosed, including what they do for a living.

Nevertheless, the financial planners who evaluated the family’s circumstances saw some holes that could be addressed with planning.

On the top of their wish list: proper insurance coverage.

Because Kate and Peter McCallister have five children, having enough life and disability insurance should they pass away or become unable to work should be a top priority to ensure their dependents are provided for, according to Garrett.

The movie — which includes many slips and falls at the family’s home as 8-year-old Kevin tries to ward off a pair of robbers — also signals a need for an umbrella insurance policy, in case the McCallisters are found liable for injuries or damages that occur.

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Kate and Peter — who forget or lose their son Kevin in both of the first two “Home Alone” movies — would also be wise to make proper estate planning arrangements in the event they can no longer provide or care for their children. That includes having wills, powers of attorney, advance directives, beneficiary designations, trusts and proper account titling, all kept up to date.

The couple should name physical and financial guardians who can care for the children. They may also establish a pre-need guardian for the children who can step in if the parents are unable to care for them even for a short period of time, said Aubrey Williams, financial planner at Open Path Financial in Santa Barbara, California.

“If the parents are not there to take care of the kids, there’s the possibility that kids, even if briefly, will become a ward at the state because there’s no one to care for them,” Williams said.

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The busiest return season of the year is about to begin

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Consumers are 'showing up and spending' following a strong November, says Tanger Outlets CEO

After a strong start to the holiday season, consumer spending is on track to reach record levels this year. But many of those purchases will soon be returned.

December’s peak shopping days are closely followed by the busiest month for sending items back, which experts dub “Returnuary.”

This year, returns are expected to amount to 17% of all merchandise sales, totaling $890 billion in returned goods, according to a recent report by the National Retail Federation — up from a return rate of about 15% of total U.S. retail sales, or $743 billion in returned goods, in 2023.

Even though returns happen throughout the year, they are much more prevalent during the holiday season, the NRF also found. As shopping reaches a peak, retailers expect their return rate for the holidays to be 17% higher, on average, than usual.

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“Ideally, I hope there is a world in which you can reduce the percent of returns,” said Amena Ali, CEO of returns solution company Optoro, but “the problem is not going to abate any time soon.”

How returns became an $890 billion problem

With the explosion of online shopping during and since the pandemic, customers got increasingly comfortable with their buying and returning habits and more shoppers began ordering products they never intended to keep.

Nearly two-thirds of consumers now buy multiple sizes or colors, some of which they then send back, a practice known as “bracketing,” according to Happy Returns.

Even more — 69% — of shoppers admit to “wardrobing,” or buying an item for a specific event and returning it afterward, a separate report by Optoro found. That’s a 39% increase from 2023.

Largely because of these types of behaviors, 46% of consumers said they are returning goods multiple times a month — a 29% jump from last year, according to Optoro.

All of that back-and-forth comes at a hefty price.

“With behaviors like bracketing and rising return rates putting strain on traditional systems, retailers need to rethink reverse logistics,” David Sobie, Happy Returns’ co-founder and CEO, said in a statement.

What happens to returned goods

Processing a return costs retailers an average of 30% of an item’s original price, Optoro found. But returns aren’t just a problem for retailers’ bottom line.

Often returns do not end up back on the shelf, and that also causes issues for retailers struggling to enhance sustainability, according to Spencer Kieboom, founder and CEO of Pollen Returns, a return management company. 

Sending products back to be repackaged, restocked and resold — sometimes overseas — generates even more carbon emissions, assuming they can be put back in circulation.

In some cases, returned goods are sent straight to landfills, and only 54% of all packaging was recycled in 2018, the most recent data available, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

Returns in 2023 created 8.4 billion pounds of landfill waste, according to Optoro.

That presents a major challenge for retailers, not only in terms of the lost revenue, but also in terms of the environmental impact of managing those returns, said Rachel Delacour, co-founder and CEO of Sweep, a sustainability data management firm. “At the end of the day, being sustainable is a business strategy.”

To that end, companies are doing what they can to keep returns in check.

In 2023, 81% of U.S. retailers rolled out stricter return policies, including shortening the return window and charging a return or restocking fee, according to another report from Happy Returns.

While restocking fees and shipping charges may help curb the amount of inventory that is sent back, retailers also said that improving the returns experience was a key goal for 2025.

Now 33% of retailers, including Amazon and Target, are allowing their customers to simply “keep it,” offering a refund without taking the product back.

Retail's return secret: What a 'keep it' policy means

For shoppers, return policies are key

Increasingly, return policies and expectations are an important predictor of consumer behavior, according to Happy Returns’ Sobie, particularly for Generation Z and millennials.

“Return policies are no longer just a post-purchase consideration — they’re shaping how younger generations shop from the start,” Sobie said.

Three-quarters, or 76%, of shoppers consider free returns a key factor in deciding where to spend their money, and 67% say a negative return experience would discourage them from shopping with a retailer again, the NRF found.

A survey of 1,500 adults by GoDaddy found that 77% of shoppers check the return policy before making a purchase.

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