Politicians rarely tell voters they are wrong. For Democrats trying to sell America’s economic success, the temptation must be strong. As our special report explains, the country’s economy is one of the strongest in the world. Americans are richer than at the start of President Joe Biden’s term. Yet they struggle to believe it: in weekly polling conducted by YouGov since mid-2021, almost twice as many say the economy is getting worse as say it’s getting better.

IT WAS ONCE common for states to split their pair of senators between the two major parties. In 2010 there were 19 such states. Today only three have true splits. In all three of those states—Ohio, Montana and Wisconsin—the Democrat-held seats are up for election in November. And all three could well be lost. Jon Tester faces an uphill re-election bid in Montana. In Ohio, Sherrod Brown, a third-term incumbent, must persuade a large share of Donald Trump voters to split their tickets (an increasingly rare phenomenon) if he is to remain in office. That leaves Tammy Baldwin, the twice-elected senator from Wisconsin, who is campaigning on the least Trumpy terrain of the three.

Last year, when he was campaigning to be mayor of Chicago, Brandon Johnson, a former organiser for the Chicago Teachers Union, was asked how he would handle negotiating a contract with his former employers, especially when money is tight. He answered simply: “Who better to deliver bad news to friends than a friend?” The teachers’ union downplayed hopes of special favours. “Brandon is a remarkable person who has a lot of principles,” said Jesse Sharkey, a former head of the union.