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First-year college enrollment falls, though more students qualify for aid

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Al Seib | Los Angeles Times | Getty Images

Although more students are eligible for federal financial aid, fewer high schoolers are pursuing a four-year degree. Increasingly, college is becoming a path for only those with the means to pay for it, many studies show. 

Although undergraduate enrollment is up overall, the number of new first-year students sank 5% this fall compared with last year, with four-year colleges notching the largest declines, according to an analysis of early data by the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center.

“It is startling to see such a substantial drop in freshmen, the first decline since the start of the pandemic,” Doug Shapiro, the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center’s executive director, said in a statement.

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“But the gains among students either continuing from last year or returning from prior stop outs [or temporary withdrawals] are keeping overall undergraduate numbers growing, especially at community colleges, and that’s at least some good news,” he said.

The declines in first-year student enrollment were most significant at four-year colleges that serve low-income students, the report also found. At four-year colleges where large shares of students receive Pell Grants, first-year student enrollment plummeted more than 10%.

More students qualify for federal financial aid

The new Free Application for Federal Student Aid is meant to improve access by expanding Pell Grant eligibility to provide more financial support to low- and middle-income families.

As a result of changes to the financial aid application, more students can now qualify for a Pell Grant, a type of aid awarded solely based on financial need.

New data from the Department of Education shows that 10% more students are on track to receive Pell Grants this year, including 3% more current high school seniors.

But overall, the number of Pell Grant recipients is down significantly. In fact, the number of Pell Grant recipients peaked over a decade ago, when 9.4 million students were awarded grants in the 2011-12 academic year, and sank 32% to 6.4 million in 2023-24, according to the College Board, which tracks trends in college pricing and student aid.

Federal aid is not keeping up with costs

Also, those grants have not kept up with the rising cost of a four-year degree. Currently, the maximum Pell Grant award rose to $7,395 — after notching a $500 increase in the 2023-34 academic year.

Meanwhile, tuition and fees plus room and board for a four-year private college averaged $58,600 in the 2024-25 school year, up from $56,390 a year earlier. At four-year, in-state public colleges, it was $24,920, up from $24,080, the College Board found.

Experts have continuously warned that ongoing problems with the new FAFSA have resulted in fewer students applying for financial aid, which could also contribute to declining enrollment.

“The changes from FAFSA simplification were supposed to increase the number of Pell grant recipients. This was before all of the chaos ensued,” said higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz.

FAFSA rollout bugs and blunders: Here's what you need to know

Last year, 45% of college applicants reported frustrations with the process and 12% said they ultimately chose a community college, technical school or other alternative because of their FAFSA experience, according to an exclusive look at Jenzabar/Spark451′s upcoming college-bound student survey. The higher education marketing firm polled more than 5,400 recent high school graduates in September.

Rising college costs and ballooning student debt balances are still a major concern, causing more students to question the return on investment, experts also say. 

“There is growing skepticism and paranoia about the value of a degree,” said Jamie Beaton, co-founder and CEO of Crimson Education, a college consulting firm. 

Meanwhile, the number of students pursuing shorter-term accreditations is growing rapidly, with enrollment in certificate programs up 7.3%, according to the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center.

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These key 401(k) changes are coming in 2025. What savers need to know

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As some Americans struggle to save for retirement, key 401(k) plan changes could soon make preparing easier for certain workers, experts say. 

Enacted by Congress in 2022, “Secure 2.0” ushered in sweeping changes to the U.S. retirement system, including several updates to 401(k) plans. Some of these provisions will go into effect in 2025.

Meanwhile, roughly 4 in 10 American workers say they are behind in retirement planning and savings, primarily due to debt, not enough income or getting a late start, according to a CNBC survey, which polled about 6,700 adults in early August.

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Dave Stinnett, Vanguard’s head of strategic retirement consulting, said 401(k) plans are “the primary way most Americans prepare for retirement” and those accounts can work “very, very well” when designed properly.

Here are some key changes for 2025 and what employees need to know.

‘Exciting change’ for catch-up contributions

For 2025, employees can defer $23,500 into 401(k) plans, up from $23,000 in 2024. Workers ages 50 and older can make up to $7,500 in catch-up contributions on top of the $23,500 limit.

But there’s an “exciting change” to catch-up contributions for a subset of older workers in 2025, thanks to Secure 2.0, according to certified financial planner Jamie Bosse, senior advisor at CGN Advisors in Manhattan, Kansas.

Starting in 2025, the catch-up contribution limit will jump to $11,250, about a 14% increase, for employees ages 60 to 63. Including the $23,500 limit, these workers can save a total of $34,750 in 2025.

Only 14% of employees maxed out 401(k) plans in 2023, according to Vanguard’s 2024 How America Saves report, based on data from 1,500 qualified plans and nearly 5 million participants.

On top of maxing out contributions, an estimated 15% of workers made catch-up contributions in plans that allowed it during 2023, the same report found.

Shorter wait for part-time workers

Secure 2.0 has also boosted access to 401(k) and 403(b) plans for certain part-time workers.

Starting in 2024, employers were required to extend plan access to part-time employees who worked at least 500 hours annually for three consecutive years. That threshold drops to two consecutive years in 2025.

“That’s a very good thing for long-term part-time workers” who may have struggled to qualify for 401(k) eligibility, said Stinnett.

That’s a very good thing for long-term part-time workers.

Dave Stinnett

Vanguard’s head of strategic retirement consulting

In March 2023, some 73% of civilian workers had access to workplace retirement benefits, and 56% of workers participated in these plans, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

“Coverage is my thing,” said Alicia Munnell, director of the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College.

“It’s important that people have coverage no matter where they go,” including from full-time to part-time at the same job, she added.

Mandatory auto-enrollment for new 401(k) plans

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Top 10 S&P 500 stock winners since Election Day

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Stock traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.

Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Many large U.S. companies have seen their stocks swell since the presidential election.

The top 10 performing stocks in the S&P 500 index saw returns of 18% or more since Election Day, according to data provided by S&P Global Market Intelligence, which analyzed returns based on closing prices from Nov. 5 to Nov. 20.

Two companies — Axon Enterprise (AXON), which provides law-enforcement technology, and Tesla (TSLA), the electric-vehicle maker led by Elon Musk, an advisor to President-elect Donald Trump — saw their stocks gain more than 35%, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.

By contrast, the S&P 500 gained about 2% over the same period.

‘Usually a bad idea’ to buy on short-term gain

Investors should be cautious about buying individual stocks based on short-term boosts, said Jeremy Goldberg, a certified financial planner, portfolio manager and research analyst at Professional Advisory Services, Inc., which ranked No. 37 on CNBC’s annual Financial Advisor 100 list.

“It’s usually a bad idea,” Goldberg said. “Momentum is a powerful force in the market, but relying solely on short-term price moves as an investment strategy is risky.”

Investors should understand what’s driving the movement and whether the factors pushing up a stock price are sustainable, Goldberg said.

Why did these stocks outperform?

Lofty stock returns were partly driven by Trump administration policy stances expected to benefit certain companies and industries, investment experts said.

Deregulation and a softer view toward mergers and acquisitions are two “key” themes driving bullish sentiment after Trump’s win, said Jacob Manoukian, head of U.S. investment strategy at J.P. Morgan Private Bank.

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Relying solely on short-term price moves as an investment strategy is risky.

Jeremy Goldberg

portfolio manager and research analyst at Professional Advisory Services, Inc.

Rosy earnings and AI

Likewise, Axon beat analysts’ estimates in its Nov. 7 earnings results, with officials touting its “AI era plan” and raising earnings guidance, Goldberg said.

Axon and Palantir stocks were up 38% and 22%, respectively, from Nov. 5 to Nov. 20, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Some companies benefited from a combination of policy and earnings, experts said.

Rows of servers fill Data Hall B at Facebook’s Fort Worth Data Center in Texas.

Paul Moseley/Fort Worth Star-Telegram/Tribune News Service via Getty Images

Take Vistra Corp. (VST), an energy provider, for example. The company’s stock jumped 27% after Election Day.

Vistra is in talks with large data centers — or “hyperscalers” — in Texas, Pennsylvania and Ohio to build or upgrade gas and nuclear plants, Stacey Doré, Vistra’s chief strategy and sustainability officer, said on the company’s Q3 earnings call Nov. 7.

Tech companies are building more and more such data centers to fuel the AI revolution — and need to source increasing amounts of energy to run them.

The ‘Elon Musk premium’

President-elect Donald Trump and Elon Musk talk ring side during the UFC 309 event at Madison Square Garden on Nov. 16, 2024 in New York.

Chris Unger | Ufc | Getty Images

But Tesla stock has additional tailwinds, experts said.

For one, Trump wants to end a $7,500 federal tax credit for EVs. Scrapping that policy is expected to hurt Tesla’s EV rivals.

Tesla has also been developing technology for driverless vehicles. In Tesla’s recent earnings call, Musk said he’d use his influence in Trump’s administration to establish a “federal approval process for autonomous vehicles.”

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Student loan legal battles delay SAVE borrowers’ path to forgiveness

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Matthias Ritzmann | The Image Bank | Getty Images

With the Biden administration’s new student loan repayment plan is tied up in legal battles, millions of borrowers have had their monthly payments put on hold.

The break from the bills is likely a relief to the many federal student loan borrowers enrolled in the Saving on a Valuable Education plan, known as SAVE. But it may also be causing them anxiety over the fact that they won’t get credit on their timeline to debt forgiveness.

For example, those also enrolled in the Public Service Loan Forgiveness program, who are entitled to loan cancellation after 10 years, have seen their journey toward that relief halted during the forbearance.

“Borrowers are frustrated about the delay toward forgiveness,” said higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz. “They feel like they’ve been waiting for Godot.”

Here’s what borrowers enrolled in SAVE should know about the delay to debt cancellation.

Delay could stretch on for months

In October, the U.S. Department of Education said that roughly 8 million federal student loan borrowers will remain in an interest-free forbearance while the courts decide the fate of the SAVE plan.

A federal court issued an injunction earlier this year preventing the Education Department from implementing parts of the SAVE plan, which the Biden administration had described as the most affordable repayment plan in history. Under SAVE’s terms, many people expected to see their monthly bills cut in half. 

The forbearance is supposed to help borrowers who were counting on those lower monthly bills. But unlike the Covid-era pause on federal student loan payments, this forbearance does not bring borrowers closer to debt forgiveness under an income-driven repayment plan or Public Service Loan Forgiveness.

Adding to borrowers’ annoyance is that “those enrolled in the SAVE Plan were not given the choice of forbearance,” said Elaine Rubin, director of corporate communications at Edvisors, which helps students navigate college costs and borrowing. If borrowers want to stay in SAVE, they can’t opt out of this pause.

Borrowers enrolled in PSLF are especially concerned, Kantrowitz said. That program requires borrowers to work in public service while they’re repaying their student loans.

“They have been working in a qualifying job, but aren’t making progress toward forgiveness,” he said. “Some borrowers are working a job they hate, but are sticking with it in the expectation of qualifying for forgiveness. Others are close to retirement and don’t want to have to work past their normal retirement age just to get the forgiveness.”

What borrowers can do

Despite the delay toward forgiveness, there are still a few good reasons for borrowers to stay enrolled in SAVE, experts say. During the forbearance, borrowers are excused from payments and interest on their debt does not accrue.

Keep in mind: Even if you make payments under SAVE during the forbearance, your loan servicer will just apply that money toward future payments owed once the pause ends, the Education Department says.

If you’re eager to be back on your way to debt cancellation, you have options.

You may be able switch into another income-driven repayment plan that is still available. Under that new plan, you may have to start making payments again. Yet if you earn under around $20,000 as a single person, your monthly payment could still be $0, and therefore you might not lose anything by switching, Kantrowitz said.

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Changing plans might be especially appealing to those who are very close to crossing the finish line to debt forgiveness and just want to see their balance wiped away, experts said. (You’ll likely be placed in a processing forbearance for a period while your loan servicer makes that switch. During that time, you will get credit toward forgiveness.)

The Education Department is also offering those who’ve been working in public service for 10 years the chance to “buy back” certain months in their payment history. This allows borrowers to make payments to cover previous months for which they didn’t get credit. But to be eligible for the option, the purchased months need to bring you to the 120 payments required for loan forgiveness.

“The buyback option might be eliminated under the Trump administration,” Kantrowitz said. “So, if you want to use it, you should use it now.”

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