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Trump pledges to get tough with tariffs again if elected

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Former President Donald Trump: China is, right now, our boss

Proclaiming that “I’m a big believer in tariffs,” former President Donald Trump on Monday indicated he’s likely to reinstitute duties on foreign goods should he win election to a second term.

In a CNBC interview, Trump cited both economic and political benefits from targeting foreign goods entering the U.S.

“I fully believe in them economically when you’re being taken advantage of by other countries,” the presumptive Republican nominee said during a “Squawk Box” interview, referring to tariffs. “Beyond the economics, it gives you power in dealing with other countries.”

The comments come as Trump is running a close race in the polls with President Joe Biden. With his latest slew of victories in the Republican primaries and all his opponents dropping out, Trump looks set to become the party nominee in a race where the economy will loom large.

During his administration, from 2017-21, Trump instituted a variety of tariffs on China, Mexico, the European Union and others. In particular, he slapped 25% duties on imported steel as well as aluminum.

In China’s case, many of the tariffs have remained in place under the Biden administration.

“China was taking advantage of us on the steel. They were destroying our entire steel industry, which was never doing very well over the last 25 years anyway … because it’s been eaten alive by foreign competition,” Trump said. “I put a 50% tax on China’s steel coming in. And every person in the steel industry, when they see me they started crying. They would hug me.”

Trump called out the Chinese automobile industry specifically for future targeting.

“China is right now our boss. They are the boss of the United States, almost like we’re a subsidiary of China,” he said.

China produced about 30 million vehicles in 2023 and saw about a 50% year-over-year increase in January, according to MarkLines. A group of Democratic senators from auto-producing states recently urged Biden to slap tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles entering the U.S.

Trump said he would seek tariffs to try to get China to build more of its cars in the U.S.

“The whole topic of tariffs is so simple. No. 1, it’s great economically for us, and it brings our companies back, because if you charge tariffs to China, they’re going to build … their car plants here and they’re going to employ our people,” he said. “We don’t want to get cars from China. We want to get cars made by China in the United States using our workers.”

Critics charge that tariffs are counterproductive because they make imported goods more expensive. Inflation, however, was subdued during Trump’s time in office, as the consumer price index rose less than 8% total over the four-year span, compared with about 18% under Biden.

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Economics

Tariffs to spike inflation, stunt growth and raise recession risks, Goldman says

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U.S. President Donald Trump announces that his administration has reached a deal with elite law firm Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom during a swearing-in ceremony in the Oval Office at the White House on March 28, 2025 in Washington, DC. 

Andrew Harnik | Getty Images

With decision day looming this week for President Donald Trump’s latest round of tariffs, Goldman Sachs expects aggressive duties from the White House to raise inflation and unemployment and drag economic growth to a near-standstill.

The investment bank now expects that tariff rates will jump 15 percentage points, its previous “risk-case” scenario that now appears more likely when Trump announces reciprocal tariffs on Wednesday. However, Goldman did note that product and country exclusions eventually will pull that increase down to 9 percentage points.

When the new trade moves are enacted, the Goldman economic team led by head of global investment research Jan Hatzius sees a broad, negative impact on the economy.

In a note published on Sunday, the firm said “we continue to believe the risk from April 2 tariffs is greater than many market participants have previously assumed.”

Inflation above goal

On inflation, the firm sees its preferred core measure, excluding food and energy prices, to hit 3.5% in 2025, a 0.5 percentage point increase from the prior forecast and well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal.

That in turn will come with weak economic growth: Just a 0.2% annualized growth rate in the first quarter and 1% for the full year when measured from the fourth quarter of 2024 to Q4 of 2025, down 0.5 percentage point from the prior forecast. In addition, the Wall Street firm now sees unemployment hitting 4.5%, a 0.3 percentage point raise from the previous forecast.

Taken together, Goldman now expects a 35% chance of recession in the next 12 months, up from 20% in the prior outlook.

The forecast paints a growing chance of a stagflation economy, with low growth and high inflation. The last time the U.S. saw stagflation was in the late 1970s and early ’80s. Back then, the Paul Volcker-led Fed dramatically raised interest rates, sending the economy into recession as the central bank chose fighting inflation over supporting economic growth.

Three rate cuts

Goldman’s economists do not see that being the case this time. In fact, the firm now expects the Fed to cut its benchmark rate three times this year, assuming quarter percentage point increments, up from a previous projection of two rate cuts.

“We have pulled the lone 2026 cut in our Fed forecast forward into 2025 and now expect three consecutive cuts this year in July, September, and November, which would leave our terminal rate forecast unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%,” the Goldman economists said, referring to the fed funds rate, down from 4.25% to 4.50% today.

Though the extent of the latest tariffs is still not known, the Wall Street Journal reported Sunday that Trump is pushing his team toward more aggressive levies that could mean an across-the-board hit of 20% to U.S. trading partners.

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