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Economics

How to read America’s early-voting numbers

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FOR THE first time since August, Donald Trump has overtaken Kamala Harris in The Economist’s statistical model of America’s presidential election. Our latest forecast gives Mr Trump a 53% chance of returning to the White House, up seven percentage points in the past week (see chart). Although the race remains more or less a coin toss, it is now weighted slightly in Mr Trump’s direction. The shift in our model reflects a steady narrowing of Ms Harris’s lead in national polls during the past month. State-specific polls published in the past week confirm that Mr Trump’s position has strengthened slightly in the plausibly decisive states.

Economics

Matt Gaetz withdraws from consideration as America’s attorney-general

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MATT GAETZ, Donald Trump’s choice for America’s attorney-general, spent November 20th meeting senators and telling reporters it had been “a great day of momentum”. The next day, however, Mr Gaetz withdrew his name from consideration, acknowledging that “my confirmation was unfairly becoming a distraction.” This was not self-effacement from a MAGA firebrand, but a reflection of reality: Mr Gaetz had little chance of being confirmed even by a Republican-controlled Senate. The Republican Party may belong to Mr Trump, but his power is not absolute.

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Economics

Democrats are still processing their defeat

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THESE ARE NOT the reports Democrats were hoping to prepare. Instead of transition plans for the incoming Kamala Harris administration, draft executive orders and legislative outlines, Democrats are producing post-mortem analyses of how their campaign came apart in 2024. Those Democrats who are honest with themselves are recognising an uncomfortable truth: as awful, immoral and weird as they consider the Republican Party, the American people considered it to be the better option for governing America.

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Economics

Will Donald Trump now pardon the January 6th rioters?

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Many Americans hope that Donald Trump will fulfil his campaign pledges to bring down prices and deport illegal immigrants. But a small group of convicted rioters are on tenterhooks over another electioneering promise. Mr Trump has repeatedly vowed to free his supporters who were imprisoned for storming the Capitol on January 6th 2021. He has repeatedly called them “hostages” and “unbelievable patriots” while recasting the attempt to disrupt the peaceful transfer of power as “a day of love”. “Why are they still being held?” Mr Trump mused weeks before the election. His return to the White House means he could soon pardon them all.

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