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Susie Wiles, the unassuming operative powering Donald Trump’s campaign

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SUSIE WILES cannot control everything. Take Donald Trump, her boss: his rants on the campaign trail, his unvetted social-media posts, his questionable guests at Mar-a-Lago. Some of these over the past three years, made her job harder. The Democrats, too, are beyond her reach—their decision to replace Joe Biden, around whom Ms Wiles had designed a campaign, scrambled her plans.

But Ms Wiles, a 67-year-old grandmother who has spent decades helping Republicans get elected in Florida, works hard to control what she can. She is level-headed, highly organised and a problem-solver. With her boxy blazers, mirrored shades and hair so blond it sometimes appears silver, she can seem severe—but is by all accounts warm and affable. She has developed a powerful network of politicians, policy types, lobbyists and reporters. The loyal staffers she has brought over to the Trump campaign are known as the “Florida mafia”.

Her success as de facto manager of Mr Trump’s campaign will depend on what voters do on November 5th. But the low-key Ms Wiles, who avoids photo ops and is reportedly quick to give others credit, has already achieved a lot. Mr Trump left the White House in 2021 as a political pariah. He is on the verge of a triumphant return.

She has acknowledged to Politico that she sees similarities between the former president and her late father, Pat Summerall, an American-football player, who became a famous sports broadcaster, and an alcoholic. Like Mr Trump he was a very hard man to manage. Her mother ensured that the home functioned well in spite of him, before finally convincing him to get treatment.

Ms Wiles grew up prosperous in New Jersey, playing tennis and basketball. She got her start in politics by working for Jack Kemp, a Republican congressman from New York who had been her father’s teammate. She worked for Ronald Reagan, on his presidential campaign and in the White House, and in 1985 moved to Florida with her then husband.

Ms Wiles started a political-consulting firm in Jacksonville and raised two daughters. She worked for three Republican mayors and developed a reputation as a smart, pragmatic and well-connected operative. She helped an unknown businessman named Rick Scott win the governorship (he is now in the Senate). She seems to be motivated more by the challenge of winning a campaign than by ideology. None of her previous bosses, however, has been as challenging as Mr Trump.

Florida was a swing state in 2016, considered by some a bellwether. Mr Trump cold-called her to head up his operation in Florida, where he lived part-time at Mar-a-Lago, his resort in Palm Beach. “As a card-carrying member of the [GOP] establishment, many thought my full-throated endorsement of the Trump candidacy was ill-advised—even crazy,” Ms. Wiles told the New York Times in 2016. After a polling dip he nearly fired her that autumn (a dressing down reportedly delivered while he was eating a steak at Mar-a-Lago), but she insisted she could deliver.

As Florida went, so went the country—for Mr Trump. Ms Wiles then worked for Ron DeSantis, a little-known congressman whose bid for governor was salvaged when Mr Trump endorsed him. He won, but made the unwise decision to cut ties with her. She helped Mr Trump win Florida in the 2020 election, though he lost the presidency. After his defeat, and the January 6th Capitol riot, it was far from certain that he would run again. But in early 2021, when few others would have taken the gamble, she agreed to join the board of a fund-raising committee he was setting up to channel money to midterm races. Within weeks she took control of a chaotic post-White House operation, which was endorsing down-ballot Republican candidates, covering Mr Trump’s allies’ legal fees and charting the ex-president’s next steps. .

By November 2022 he had declared he would run again. Ms Wiles and Chris LaCivita, her campaign co-manager (though in practice not her equal), developed a strategy that would play to their candidate’s strengths. At first Mr DeSantis, who aspired to be the Republicans’ presidential candidate, had more money and a bigger operation in Iowa, where the first Republican primary takes place. So rather than knock on endless doors, they used a lean, targeted plan to identify Trump fans who might not even be registered to vote. They won Iowa in a landslide. In the general election they pushed—successfully, according to poll numbers from July—an utterly simple narrative: Mr Biden was weak, and Mr Trump was strong. They similarly pushed for a bare-bones party platform—no more “textbook-long” treatises, they wrote. The resulting 16-page document bore Mr Trump’s signature policy proposals, rendered in his style (“We are a Nation in SERIOUS DECLINE”).

Ms Wiles has claimed to have convinced her boss to do some practical things: for example, urge his supporters to vote by mail and tone down the stolen-election comments. In reality he remains paranoid about election integrity, cannot help but insist that he won in 2020 and has never stayed “disciplined” for long. But his message still resonates, his delivery still thrills, his character flaws still leave many Republicans undeterred and either enthusiastic supporters or ready to hold their noses and vote for him. If enough of them do, Ms Wiles might be heading for an even harder Trump-management job. He may well offer her the job of White House chief of staff.

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Economics

Tariffs to spike inflation, stunt growth and raise recession risks, Goldman says

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U.S. President Donald Trump announces that his administration has reached a deal with elite law firm Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom during a swearing-in ceremony in the Oval Office at the White House on March 28, 2025 in Washington, DC. 

Andrew Harnik | Getty Images

With decision day looming this week for President Donald Trump’s latest round of tariffs, Goldman Sachs expects aggressive duties from the White House to raise inflation and unemployment and drag economic growth to a near-standstill.

The investment bank now expects that tariff rates will jump 15 percentage points, its previous “risk-case” scenario that now appears more likely when Trump announces reciprocal tariffs on Wednesday. However, Goldman did note that product and country exclusions eventually will pull that increase down to 9 percentage points.

When the new trade moves are enacted, the Goldman economic team led by head of global investment research Jan Hatzius sees a broad, negative impact on the economy.

In a note published on Sunday, the firm said “we continue to believe the risk from April 2 tariffs is greater than many market participants have previously assumed.”

Inflation above goal

On inflation, the firm sees its preferred core measure, excluding food and energy prices, to hit 3.5% in 2025, a 0.5 percentage point increase from the prior forecast and well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal.

That in turn will come with weak economic growth: Just a 0.2% annualized growth rate in the first quarter and 1% for the full year when measured from the fourth quarter of 2024 to Q4 of 2025, down 0.5 percentage point from the prior forecast. In addition, the Wall Street firm now sees unemployment hitting 4.5%, a 0.3 percentage point raise from the previous forecast.

Taken together, Goldman now expects a 35% chance of recession in the next 12 months, up from 20% in the prior outlook.

The forecast paints a growing chance of a stagflation economy, with low growth and high inflation. The last time the U.S. saw stagflation was in the late 1970s and early ’80s. Back then, the Paul Volcker-led Fed dramatically raised interest rates, sending the economy into recession as the central bank chose fighting inflation over supporting economic growth.

Three rate cuts

Goldman’s economists do not see that being the case this time. In fact, the firm now expects the Fed to cut its benchmark rate three times this year, assuming quarter percentage point increments, up from a previous projection of two rate cuts.

“We have pulled the lone 2026 cut in our Fed forecast forward into 2025 and now expect three consecutive cuts this year in July, September, and November, which would leave our terminal rate forecast unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%,” the Goldman economists said, referring to the fed funds rate, down from 4.25% to 4.50% today.

Though the extent of the latest tariffs is still not known, the Wall Street Journal reported Sunday that Trump is pushing his team toward more aggressive levies that could mean an across-the-board hit of 20% to U.S. trading partners.

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Economics

DOGE comes for the data wonks

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FOR NEARLY three decades the federal government has painstakingly surveyed tens of thousands of Americans each year about their health. Door-knockers collect data on the financial toll of chronic conditions like obesity and asthma, and probe the exact doses of medications sufferers take. The result, known as the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS), is the single most comprehensive, nationally representative portrait of American health care, a balkanised and unwieldy $5trn industry that accounts for some 17% of GDP.

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Economics

Checks and Balance newsletter: Who is (or was) the smartest person in government?

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Checks and Balance newsletter: Who is (or was) the smartest person in government?

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