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UK’s Labour hikes capital gains tax by less than feared

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On Monday, British tech lobby group Startup Coalition warned in a blog post that there was a risk Reeves’ tax plans could result in a tech “brain drain.”. (Photo by Oli Scarff/Getty Images)

Oli Scarff | Getty Images

LONDON — Britain’s Labour government on Wednesday announced plans to raise the rate of capital gains tax on share sales, news that offered some relief for technology entrepreneurs who feared a more intense tax raid on the wealthy.

Finance Minister Rachel Reeves on Wednesday hiked capital gains tax (CGT) — a levy on the profit investors make from the sale of an investment — as part of her far-reaching budget announcement. The lower capital gains tax rate will be increased to 18% from 10%, while the higher rate will climb to 24% from 20%, Reeves said. The tax hikes are expected to bring in £2.5 billion.

“We need to drive growth, promote entrepreneurship and support wealth creation, while raising the revenue required to fund our public services and restore our public finances,” Reeves said, adding that, even with the higher rate, the U.K. would “still have the lowest capital-gains tax rate of any European G7 economy.”

Reeves maintained the £1 million lifetime limit on capital gains from the sale of all or part of a company under business asset disposal relief (BADR), quashing fears from entrepreneurs that the tax relief scheme for entrepreneurs would be scrapped.

However, she added that the rate of CGT applied to entrepreneurs selling all or part of their business under BADR will be increased to 14% in 2025 and 18% a year later. She stressed that this still represented a “significant gap compared to the higher rate of capital gains tax.”

In a less welcome move for businesses, Reeves also announced plans to increase the rate of National Insurance (NI) — a tax on earnings — for employers. The current rate is 13.8% on a worker’s earnings above £9,100 per year. This is set to rise to 15% on salaries above £5,000 a year.

The changes form only a small part of sweeping fiscal changes the recently-elected Labour government laid out in its debut budget Wednesday in an attempt to close a multibillion-pound funding gap in public finances.

‘Brain drain’ feared

Reeves’ announcement comes after speculation over capital gains tax changes caused a backlash from tech founders and investors. Even prior to Reeves’ announcement, the anticipation that CGT would increase had caused angst for tech founders across the country.

On Monday, British tech lobby group Startup Coalition warned in a blog post that there was a risk Reeves’ tax plans could result in a tech “brain drain.”

A survey of 713 founders and investors conducted by Startup Coalition with private company database Beauhurst, showed that 89% of those polled would consider moving themselves or their business abroad, with 72% having already explored this possibility.

The survey data also showed that 94% of founders would consider starting a future company outside of the U.K. if the government were to raise the CGT rate.

Dom Hallas, executive director of Startup Coalition, said that while the survey findings were grim, he doesn’t expect founders will “flee if things get hard” as they “aren’t naive about the role of taxes in society.”

Following Reeves’ budget speech, Hallas told CNBC via text message that, “Any budget with increases to CGT and NI, gradual increases to BADR and taxes on investors going up, is never easy and today will be hard for founders seeing taxes on their businesses rise.”

However, he added: “We appreciate that the Government has listened to ensure that entrepreneurs’ biggest fears have not materialised and some balance has been struck including maintaining all important R&D [research and development] investment.”

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Barney Hussey-Yeo, CEO and co-founder of financial technology app Cleo, told CNBC last week he was considering a move to the U.S. as a result of Labour’s tax plans.

“There’s so many founders already leaving, or already considering leaving — and they’re excited to go to Silicon Valley,” Hussey-Yeo told CNBC on the sidelines of venture capital firm Accel’s EMEA Fintech Summit in London last week.

Hussey-Yeo didn’t respond to a request for comment Wednesday on whether he still plans to move abroad. However, he told CNBC that the budget announcement was “better than I thought it would be,” adding it “seems like they listened” to entrepreneurs.

Focus on growth-oriented policy

Tech entrepreneurs and investors are urging the government to return to its focus on fostering growth and innovation in the U.K., messages which were key to Labour’s election manifesto prior to the landslide win that saw Keir Starmer become prime minister.

“We’re already seeing early-stage firms in the UK struggle securing pre-seed and seed funding, with VCs here having a lower risk appetite. A higher CGT will act as a further deterrent,” Phil Kwok, co-founder of EasyA, an e-learning startup, told CNBC via email.

“With all the factors at play, we could see investors and the next generation of founders looking to another markets like the U.S.,” he added.

Hannah Seal, a partner at Index Ventures, told CNBC that the government should “pursue reforms that make it easier for startups to attract talent through employee ownership and ensure all regulators prioritise innovation and growth.”

“Startup-friendly policies like these will be essential to signal the U.K.’s commitment to remaining a globally competitive hub for innovation, especially in light of today’s announcements,” she added.

Edgar Randall, managing director of U.K. and Ireland at data and analytics firm Dun & Bradstreet, told CNBC that in order to remain competitive, the government should “weigh the cumulative effect of policies impacting growth.”

These include policies impacting energy costs, employer National Insurance contributions, and tax structures on capital gains and dividends.

Ultimately, “business decisions are influenced on more than just fiscal policy,” Randall said, adding that. ‘entrepreneurs look at the ecosystems [as] a whole.”

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Bessent says ‘Main Street’s turn’ after Wall Street wealth grew for 4 decades

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Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent arrives for a meeting on the House side of the U.S. Capitol on Tuesday, April 8, 2025. 

Brendan Smialowski | Afp | Getty Images

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Wednesday President Donald Trump’s aim is for Main Street businesses and consumers to thrive even as the administration’s shockingly steep tariffs could tip the economy into a recession.

“For the last four decades, basically since I began my career in Wall Street, Wall Street has grown wealthier than ever before, and it can continue to grow and do well, but for the next four years,” Bessent said at the American Bankers Association’s Washington Summit.

“The Trump agenda is focused on Main Street. It’s Main Street’s turn. It’s Main Street’s turn to hire workers. It’s Main Street’s turn to drive investment, and it’s Main Street’s turn to restore the American Dream,” he said.

Trump’s imposition of a higher tariffs has fueled the biggest four-day rout for stocks since the onset of the pandemic in 2020. The S&P 500 is nearly 19% off its record high from February, inches away from dipping into a bear market, or a 20% decline from its peak. While the wealthy do own equities in greater numbers, Main Street’s ownership has increased because of 401(k) prevalance. Also, the stock market can dictate business confidence that impacts small businesses.

Bessent, a hedge fund veteran, founded investment firm Key Square Capital Management after working with George Soros for years. He has become the main economic spokesman for Trump’s agenda of tax cuts, deregulation and trade rebalancing.

“We want to de-leverage the government sector, re-leverage the private sector …. we can’t do it all at once, or that will cause a recession,” Bessent said. “What will keep us from having a recession is making sure that the tax bill doesn’t expire, adding back 100% depreciation and then adding some of President Trump’s agenda — No tax on tips, no tax on Social Security, no tax on overtime.”

Recession fears have been rising as the Trump tariffs spur uncertainty about how far the trade war will escalate. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Wednesday he sees the U.S. economy likely headed to recession because of the trade battle.

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Wall Street starts to cut China GDP forecasts on U.S. trade tensions

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Trucks line up at the container terminal in the Longtan Port area of Nanjing Port, Jiangsu province, China on the evening of April 8, 2025. 

Cfoto | Future Publishing | Getty Images

BEIJING — Citi on Tuesday became one of the first investment firms to lower its China growth forecast on escalating trade tensions with the U.S.

In less than a week, U.S. tariffs on goods from China have more than doubled, while Beijing has hit back with more duties and restrictions on U.S. businesses.

Citi analysts cut their forecast for China’s gross domestic product to 4.2% this year, down by 0.5 percentage point, as they see “little scope for a deal between the U.S. and China after recent escalations.”

Natixis on Monday also told reporters the firm was cutting its China GDP forecast to 4.2% this year, down from 4.7% previously.

Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs have not yet cut their forecasts, but warned this week of increasing downside risks to their expectation — currently both predict 4.5% growth.

China in March announced its official growth target would be “around 5%” for 2025, but stressed that it would not be easy to reach the goal.

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“The main issue is that uncertainty for the economy is rising,” Hao Zhou, chief economist at Guotai Junan International, said Tuesday in Mandarin, translated by CNBC. He noted that visibility on future growth had dropped significantly, while U.S. tariffs might keep on rising.

U.S. President Donald Trump announced an additional 50% in tariffs on Chinese goods entering the U.S. will take effect Wednesday after Beijing raised duties on all U.S. products by 34%. As part of its plan for sweeping tariffs on multiple countries, the White House last week had said it would add a 34% levy on Chinese goods.

Combined with two rounds of 10% tariff increases earlier this year, new U.S. tariffs on Chinese products in 2025 have reached 104%.

Diminishing impact from new tariffs

While an initial 50% increase in duties could reduce Chinese GDP by 1.5 percentage points, a subsequent 50% increase would drag it down by a smaller 0.9 percentage point, Goldman Sachs analysts said in a report Tuesday.

Chinese exports to the U.S. account for about 3 percentage points of China’s total GDP, Goldman said, noting that includes 2.35 percentage points of domestic value add and 0.65 percentage point of associated manufacturing investment.

China is expected to report March trade data on Monday, and first quarter GDP on April 16.

Nomura now expects China’s exports to drop by 2% this year, worse than their previous expectation of no change, the firm’s Chief China Economist Ting Lu said in a report Tuesday.

But he kept his 2025 GDP forecast of 4.5%. “Given the extraordinarily fluid situation, it is impossible to reasonably estimate the impact of the ongoing U.S.-China trade war on China’s economy,” he said, adding that his forecast already accounted for significantly worse tensions.

China this week signaled it could cut interest rates or increase fiscal spending to bolster growth in the near future.

Diminishing impact from tariffs can also feed into Beijing’s calculus that U.S. leverage is likely reaching a ceiling, Yue Su, principal economist, China, at the Economist Intelligence Unit, said in an email.

“From Beijing’s perspective, the strategic gains of a strong retaliation now appear to outweigh the associated economic costs,” she said.

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