Finance
UK’s Labour hikes capital gains tax by less than feared
On Monday, British tech lobby group Startup Coalition warned in a blog post that there was a risk Reeves’ tax plans could result in a tech “brain drain.”. (Photo by Oli Scarff/Getty Images)
Oli Scarff | Getty Images
LONDON — Britain’s Labour government on Wednesday announced plans to raise the rate of capital gains tax on share sales, news that offered some relief for technology entrepreneurs who feared a more intense tax raid on the wealthy.
Finance Minister Rachel Reeves on Wednesday hiked capital gains tax (CGT) — a levy on the profit investors make from the sale of an investment — as part of her far-reaching budget announcement. The lower capital gains tax rate will be increased to 18% from 10%, while the higher rate will climb to 24% from 20%, Reeves said. The tax hikes are expected to bring in £2.5 billion.
“We need to drive growth, promote entrepreneurship and support wealth creation, while raising the revenue required to fund our public services and restore our public finances,” Reeves said, adding that, even with the higher rate, the U.K. would “still have the lowest capital-gains tax rate of any European G7 economy.”
Reeves maintained the £1 million lifetime limit on capital gains from the sale of all or part of a company under business asset disposal relief (BADR), quashing fears from entrepreneurs that the tax relief scheme for entrepreneurs would be scrapped.
However, she added that the rate of CGT applied to entrepreneurs selling all or part of their business under BADR will be increased to 14% in 2025 and 18% a year later. She stressed that this still represented a “significant gap compared to the higher rate of capital gains tax.”
In a less welcome move for businesses, Reeves also announced plans to increase the rate of National Insurance (NI) — a tax on earnings — for employers. The current rate is 13.8% on a worker’s earnings above £9,100 per year. This is set to rise to 15% on salaries above £5,000 a year.
The changes form only a small part of sweeping fiscal changes the recently-elected Labour government laid out in its debut budget Wednesday in an attempt to close a multibillion-pound funding gap in public finances.
‘Brain drain’ feared
Reeves’ announcement comes after speculation over capital gains tax changes caused a backlash from tech founders and investors. Even prior to Reeves’ announcement, the anticipation that CGT would increase had caused angst for tech founders across the country.
On Monday, British tech lobby group Startup Coalition warned in a blog post that there was a risk Reeves’ tax plans could result in a tech “brain drain.”
A survey of 713 founders and investors conducted by Startup Coalition with private company database Beauhurst, showed that 89% of those polled would consider moving themselves or their business abroad, with 72% having already explored this possibility.
The survey data also showed that 94% of founders would consider starting a future company outside of the U.K. if the government were to raise the CGT rate.
Dom Hallas, executive director of Startup Coalition, said that while the survey findings were grim, he doesn’t expect founders will “flee if things get hard” as they “aren’t naive about the role of taxes in society.”
Following Reeves’ budget speech, Hallas told CNBC via text message that, “Any budget with increases to CGT and NI, gradual increases to BADR and taxes on investors going up, is never easy and today will be hard for founders seeing taxes on their businesses rise.”
However, he added: “We appreciate that the Government has listened to ensure that entrepreneurs’ biggest fears have not materialised and some balance has been struck including maintaining all important R&D [research and development] investment.”
Barney Hussey-Yeo, CEO and co-founder of financial technology app Cleo, told CNBC last week he was considering a move to the U.S. as a result of Labour’s tax plans.
“There’s so many founders already leaving, or already considering leaving — and they’re excited to go to Silicon Valley,” Hussey-Yeo told CNBC on the sidelines of venture capital firm Accel’s EMEA Fintech Summit in London last week.
Hussey-Yeo didn’t respond to a request for comment Wednesday on whether he still plans to move abroad. However, he told CNBC that the budget announcement was “better than I thought it would be,” adding it “seems like they listened” to entrepreneurs.
Focus on growth-oriented policy
Tech entrepreneurs and investors are urging the government to return to its focus on fostering growth and innovation in the U.K., messages which were key to Labour’s election manifesto prior to the landslide win that saw Keir Starmer become prime minister.
“We’re already seeing early-stage firms in the UK struggle securing pre-seed and seed funding, with VCs here having a lower risk appetite. A higher CGT will act as a further deterrent,” Phil Kwok, co-founder of EasyA, an e-learning startup, told CNBC via email.
“With all the factors at play, we could see investors and the next generation of founders looking to another markets like the U.S.,” he added.
Hannah Seal, a partner at Index Ventures, told CNBC that the government should “pursue reforms that make it easier for startups to attract talent through employee ownership and ensure all regulators prioritise innovation and growth.”
“Startup-friendly policies like these will be essential to signal the U.K.’s commitment to remaining a globally competitive hub for innovation, especially in light of today’s announcements,” she added.
Edgar Randall, managing director of U.K. and Ireland at data and analytics firm Dun & Bradstreet, told CNBC that in order to remain competitive, the government should “weigh the cumulative effect of policies impacting growth.”
These include policies impacting energy costs, employer National Insurance contributions, and tax structures on capital gains and dividends.
Ultimately, “business decisions are influenced on more than just fiscal policy,” Randall said, adding that. ‘entrepreneurs look at the ecosystems [as] a whole.”
Cybersecurity and enterprise software stocks have been market dogs in 2026, with fears that AI will wipe out a wide range of companies in the enterprise space dominating the narrative. But they snapped a brutal losing streak this past week, joining in the broader market rally that saw all losses from the U.S.-Iran war regained by the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500.
Cybersecurity has been “a victim of some of the AI-related headlines,” Christian Magoon, Amplify ETFs CEO, said on this week’s “ETF Edge.”
It wasn’t just niche cybersecurity names. Take Microsoft, for example, which was recently down close to 20% for the year. Its shares surged last week by 13%.
A big driver of the pummeling in software stocks was a rotation within tech by investors to AI infrastructure and semiconductors and some other names in large-cap tech, Magoon said, and since cybersecurity stocks and ETFs are heavily weighted towards software companies, they were left behind even as those businesses continue to grow on a fundamental basis.
But Wall Street now has become more bullish with the stocks at lower levels. Brent Thill, Jefferies tech analyst, said last week that the worst may be over for software stocks. “I think that this concept that software is dead, and then Anthropic and OpenAI are going to kill the entire industry, is just over-exaggerated,” he said on CNBC’s “Money Movers” on Wednesday.
“Big Short” investor Michael Burry wrote in a Substack post on Wednesday that he is becoming bullish about software stocks after the recent selloff. “Software stocks remain interesting because of accelerated extreme declines last week arising from a reflexive positive feedback loop between falling software stocks and changes in the market for their bank debt,” he wrote.
The Global X Cybersecurity ETF (BUG), is down about 12% since the beginning of the year, with top holdings including Palo Alto Networks, Fortinet, Akamai Technologies and CrowdStrike. But BUG was up 12% last week. The First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR) is down 6% for the year, but up 9% in the past week.
Piper Sandler analyst Rob Owens reiterated an “overweight” rating on Palo Alto Networks which helped the stock pop 7% — it is now down roughly 6% on the year. Its peers saw similar moves, including CrowdStrike.
Performance of Global X cybersecurity ETF versus S&P 500 over past one-year period.
Magoon said expectations may have become too high in cybersecurity, and with a crowding effect among investors, solid results were not enough to to push stocks higher. But the down-and-then-back-up 2026 for the sector is also a reminder that when stocks fall sharply in a short period of time, opportunity may knock.
“Once you’re down over 10% in some of these subsectors, you start to see the contrarians start to say, ‘well, maybe I’ll take a look at this,'” Magoon said.
He said AI does add both opportunity and uncertainty to the cybersecurity equation, increasing demand but also introducing new competition. But he added, “I think the dip is good to buy in an AI-driven world,” specifically because the risks to companies may lead to more M&A in cyber names that benefits the stocks.
For now, investors may look for opportunity on the margins rather than rush back into beaten-up tech names. “I think investors are still going to remain underweight software,” Thill said.
But Magoon advises investors to at least take the reminder to keep an eye on niches in the market during pronounced downturns. “The best-performing are often the least bought and do the best over the next 12 months versus late-in-the-game piling on,” he said.
While that may have been a mindset that worked against the last investors into cybersecurity and enterprise software in mid-2025 when the negative sentiment started building, at least for now, it’s started working for the stocks in the sector again.
Meanwhile, this year’s biggest winner is also a good example of what can be an extended trade in either a bullish or bearish direction. Last year, institutional ownership of energy was at multi-year lows, Magoon said, referencing Bank of America data. “Reverse sentiment can be a great indicator,” he said.
But he cautioned that any selective buying of stocks that have dipped does have to contend with the risk that there is a potentially bigger drawdown in the market yet to come in 2026. That is because midterm election years historically have been marked by large drawdowns. “If you think it is bad right now, it could get a lot worse,” Magoon said. But he added that there’s a silver-lining in that data, too, for the patient investor. The market has posted very strong 12-month returns after midterm election drawdowns end. So, for investors with a longer-term time horizon and no need for short-term liquidity, Magoon said, “stick in there.”
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New innovation in the exchange-traded fund industry could come at a cost to investors during extreme conditions.
According to MFS Investment Management’s Jamie Harrison, ETFs involved in increasingly complex derivatives and less transparent markets may be in uncharted territory when it comes to violent downturns.
“Those would be something that you’d want to keep an eye on as volatility ramps up,” the firm’s head of ETF capital markets told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week. “As innovation continues to increase at a rapid pace within the ETF wrapper, [it’s] definitely something that we advise our clients to be really front-footed about… Lack of transparency could absolutely be an issue if we’re going to start seeing some deep sell-offs.”
His firm has been around since 1924 and is known for inventing the open-end mutual fund. Last year, ETF.com named MFS Investment Management as the best new ETF issuer.
“It’s important to do due diligence on the portfolio,” he said. “Having a firm that has deep partnerships, deep bench of subject matter experts that plays with the A-team in terms of the Street and liquidity providers available [are] super important.”
Liquidity as the real issue?
Harrison suggested the real issue is liquidity, particularly during a steep sell-off.
“We’ve all seen the news and the headlines around potential private credit ETFs. That picture becomes much more murky,” he added. “It’s up to advisors, to investors [and] to clients to really dig in and look under the hood and engage with their issuers.”
He noted investors will have to ask some tough questions.
“What does this look like in a 20% drawdown? How does this liquidity facility work? Am I going to be able to get in? Am I going to be able to get out? And if I’m able to get out, am I able to get out at a price that’s tight to NAV [net asset value], and what’s the infrastructure at your shop in terms of managing that consideration for me,” said Harrison.
Amplify ETFs’ Christian Magoon is also concerned about these newer ETF strategies could weather a monster drawdown. He listed private credit as a red flag.
“If your ETF owns private credit, I think it’s worth taking a look at, kind of what the standards are around liquidity and how that ETF is trading, because that should be a bit of a mismatch between the trading pace of ETFs and the underlying asset,” the firm’s CEO said in the same interview.
Magoon also highlighted potential issues surrounding equity-linked notes. The notes provide fixed income security while offering potentially higher returns linked to stocks or equity indexes.
“Those could potentially be in stress due to redemptions and the underlying credit risk. That’s another kind of unique derivative,” Magoon said. “I would very closely look at any ETF that has equity-linked notes should we get into a major drawdown or there be a contagion in private credit or something related to the banking system.”
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