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UK’s Labour hikes capital gains tax by less than feared

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On Monday, British tech lobby group Startup Coalition warned in a blog post that there was a risk Reeves’ tax plans could result in a tech “brain drain.”. (Photo by Oli Scarff/Getty Images)

Oli Scarff | Getty Images

LONDON — Britain’s Labour government on Wednesday announced plans to raise the rate of capital gains tax on share sales, news that offered some relief for technology entrepreneurs who feared a more intense tax raid on the wealthy.

Finance Minister Rachel Reeves on Wednesday hiked capital gains tax (CGT) — a levy on the profit investors make from the sale of an investment — as part of her far-reaching budget announcement. The lower capital gains tax rate will be increased to 18% from 10%, while the higher rate will climb to 24% from 20%, Reeves said. The tax hikes are expected to bring in £2.5 billion.

“We need to drive growth, promote entrepreneurship and support wealth creation, while raising the revenue required to fund our public services and restore our public finances,” Reeves said, adding that, even with the higher rate, the U.K. would “still have the lowest capital-gains tax rate of any European G7 economy.”

Reeves maintained the £1 million lifetime limit on capital gains from the sale of all or part of a company under business asset disposal relief (BADR), quashing fears from entrepreneurs that the tax relief scheme for entrepreneurs would be scrapped.

However, she added that the rate of CGT applied to entrepreneurs selling all or part of their business under BADR will be increased to 14% in 2025 and 18% a year later. She stressed that this still represented a “significant gap compared to the higher rate of capital gains tax.”

In a less welcome move for businesses, Reeves also announced plans to increase the rate of National Insurance (NI) — a tax on earnings — for employers. The current rate is 13.8% on a worker’s earnings above £9,100 per year. This is set to rise to 15% on salaries above £5,000 a year.

The changes form only a small part of sweeping fiscal changes the recently-elected Labour government laid out in its debut budget Wednesday in an attempt to close a multibillion-pound funding gap in public finances.

‘Brain drain’ feared

Reeves’ announcement comes after speculation over capital gains tax changes caused a backlash from tech founders and investors. Even prior to Reeves’ announcement, the anticipation that CGT would increase had caused angst for tech founders across the country.

On Monday, British tech lobby group Startup Coalition warned in a blog post that there was a risk Reeves’ tax plans could result in a tech “brain drain.”

A survey of 713 founders and investors conducted by Startup Coalition with private company database Beauhurst, showed that 89% of those polled would consider moving themselves or their business abroad, with 72% having already explored this possibility.

The survey data also showed that 94% of founders would consider starting a future company outside of the U.K. if the government were to raise the CGT rate.

Dom Hallas, executive director of Startup Coalition, said that while the survey findings were grim, he doesn’t expect founders will “flee if things get hard” as they “aren’t naive about the role of taxes in society.”

Following Reeves’ budget speech, Hallas told CNBC via text message that, “Any budget with increases to CGT and NI, gradual increases to BADR and taxes on investors going up, is never easy and today will be hard for founders seeing taxes on their businesses rise.”

However, he added: “We appreciate that the Government has listened to ensure that entrepreneurs’ biggest fears have not materialised and some balance has been struck including maintaining all important R&D [research and development] investment.”

Concerns that cost of doing business in the UK is rising, says BritishAmerican Business CEO

Barney Hussey-Yeo, CEO and co-founder of financial technology app Cleo, told CNBC last week he was considering a move to the U.S. as a result of Labour’s tax plans.

“There’s so many founders already leaving, or already considering leaving — and they’re excited to go to Silicon Valley,” Hussey-Yeo told CNBC on the sidelines of venture capital firm Accel’s EMEA Fintech Summit in London last week.

Hussey-Yeo didn’t respond to a request for comment Wednesday on whether he still plans to move abroad. However, he told CNBC that the budget announcement was “better than I thought it would be,” adding it “seems like they listened” to entrepreneurs.

Focus on growth-oriented policy

Tech entrepreneurs and investors are urging the government to return to its focus on fostering growth and innovation in the U.K., messages which were key to Labour’s election manifesto prior to the landslide win that saw Keir Starmer become prime minister.

“We’re already seeing early-stage firms in the UK struggle securing pre-seed and seed funding, with VCs here having a lower risk appetite. A higher CGT will act as a further deterrent,” Phil Kwok, co-founder of EasyA, an e-learning startup, told CNBC via email.

“With all the factors at play, we could see investors and the next generation of founders looking to another markets like the U.S.,” he added.

Hannah Seal, a partner at Index Ventures, told CNBC that the government should “pursue reforms that make it easier for startups to attract talent through employee ownership and ensure all regulators prioritise innovation and growth.”

“Startup-friendly policies like these will be essential to signal the U.K.’s commitment to remaining a globally competitive hub for innovation, especially in light of today’s announcements,” she added.

Edgar Randall, managing director of U.K. and Ireland at data and analytics firm Dun & Bradstreet, told CNBC that in order to remain competitive, the government should “weigh the cumulative effect of policies impacting growth.”

These include policies impacting energy costs, employer National Insurance contributions, and tax structures on capital gains and dividends.

Ultimately, “business decisions are influenced on more than just fiscal policy,” Randall said, adding that. ‘entrepreneurs look at the ecosystems [as] a whole.”

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China urges U.S. cooperation as Trump trade threat looms

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A flag stall at the Yiwu Wholesale Market in Zhejiang province, China, on May 10, 2019.

Aly Song | Reuters

BEIJING — China emphasized the need for greater cooperation with the U.S., a day after it became clear President-elect Donald Trump would become the next leader of the White House.

“The Chinese side is willing, on the basis of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation, to increase communication with the U.S., expand cooperation and resolve differences,” He Yongqian, spokesperson at China’s Ministry of Commerce, told reporters Thursday in Mandarin, according to a CNBC translation.

She was responding to a question about China’s views and planned countermeasures, given the potential for increased U.S. tariffs and restrictions on high-end tech.

“Together [we can] push China-U.S. economic and trade relations toward a stable, healthy and sustainable direction, for the benefit of both countries and the world,” the commerce spokesperson said.

Her comments echoed those of Chinese President Xi Jinping, who earlier in the day noted the benefits of bilateral cooperation in a congratulatory message to Trump, according to a Ministry of Foreign Affairs readout.

U.S.-China relations: 'No question' Trump will intensify tariffs, economist says

Washington turned tougher on Beijing under Trump’s first four-year term that began in 2017. This year, the president-elect threatened additional tariffs on Chinese goods while campaigning for his second mandate.

Yue Su, principal economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, said Trump will likely impose such tariffs in the first half of next year. She added that the Whiote House leader could speed up the process by invoking the International Emergency Economic Powers Act or Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which allows the president to impose tariffs of up to 15% in response to a serious balance-of-payments deficit.

Other analysts are less concerned about a significant increase in U.S. tariffs targeting China.

“Trump’s current tariff proposal is likely the worst-case scenario,” David Chao, Global Market Strategist, Asia Pacific (excluding Japan) at Invesco, said in a note Thursday. “I suspect the new administration will hold off imposing these tariffs in order to win concessions, whether that may be more purchases of American soybeans or even geopolitical ones.”

He added, “More so, I don’t think Trump’s proposed 60% tariff policy on China will significantly impact [multinational corporations’] confidence or sentiment.”

Chao nevertheless said that a potential 10% tariff on all exports to the U.S. would likely have a bigger impact, weakening global demand and hitting China and the rest of Asia.

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Payments giant Adyen reports 21% jump in third-quarter sales

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Adyen reported a big miss on first-half sales Thursday. The news drove a $20 billion rout in the company’s market capitalization .

Pavlo Gonchar | Sopa Images | Lightrocket | Getty Images

Adyen reported a jump in sales in the third quarter as the Dutch payments firm gained wallet share and added new customers, diversifying its merchant mix.

The company, whose technology allows businesses to accept payments online and in-store, reported third-quarter net revenue of 498.3 million euros ($535.5 million), up 21% year-on-year on a constant currency basis.

Payments firms saw a boost from an increase in online shopping during the height of the Covid-19 pandemic.

But in recent years, companies such as Adyen have faced pressure from lower consumer spending.

Adyen, however, has benefited from significant growth from partnerships with its North American clients, such as Block’s Cash App in the U.S. and Shopify in Canada.

In August, Adyen posted a 32% increase in core profit in the first six months of the year as it signalled an expansion of market share in Europe, the Middle East and Africa and North America.

Last year, the Dutch payments giant’s shares tanked nearly 40% in a single day on the back of worse-than-expected sales and declining profits in the first half of 2023

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Trump win and threat of more tariffs raises expectations for more China stimulus

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Chinese and U.S. flags flutter near The Bund, before U.S. trade delegation meet their Chinese counterparts for talks in Shanghai, China July 30, 2019.

Aly Song | Reuters

BEIJING — Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential win has raised the bar for China’s fiscal stimulus plans, expected Friday.

On the campaign trial, Trump threatened to impose additional tariffs of 60% or more on Chinese goods sold to the U.S. Increased duties of at least 10% under Trump’s first term as president did not dent America’s position as China’s largest trading partner.

But new tariffs — potentially on a larger scale — would come at a pivotal time for China. The country is relying more on exports for growth as it battles with a real estate slump and tepid consumer spending.

If Trump raises tariffs to 60%, that could reduce China’s exports by $200 billion, causing a 1 percentage point drag on GDP, Zhu Baoliang, a former chief economist at China’s economic planning agency, said at a Citigroup conference.

China is very 'concerned' about the rhetoric around tariffs, says Longview's Dewardric McNeal

Since late September, Chinese authorities have ramped up efforts to support slowing economic growth. The standing committee of the National People’s Congress — the country’s parliament — is expected to approve additional fiscal stimulus at its meeting this week, which wraps up Friday.

“In response to potential ‘Trump shocks,’ the Chinese government is likely to introduce greater stimulus measures,” said Yue Su, principal economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit. “The overlap of the NPC meeting with the U.S. election outcome suggests the government is prepared to take swift action.”

She expects a stimulus package of more than 10 trillion yuan ($1.39 billion), with about 6 trillion yuan going towards local government debt swaps and bank recapitalization. More than 4 trillion yuan will likely go towards local government special bonds for supporting real estate, Su said. She did not specify over what time period.

Stock market divergence

Mainland China and Hong Kong stocks fell Wednesday as it became clear that Trump would win the election. U.S. stocks then soared with the three major indexes hitting record highs. In Thursday morning trading, Chinese stocks tried to hold mild gains.

That divergence in stock performance indicates China’s stimulus “will be slightly bigger than the baseline scenario,” said Liqian Ren, who leads WisdomTree’s quantitative investment capabilities. She estimates Beijing will add about 2 trillion yuan to 3 trillion yuan a year in support.

Ren doesn’t expect significantly larger support due to uncertainties around how Trump might act. She pointed out that tariffs hurt both countries, but restrictions on tech and investment have a greater impact on China.

Trump, during his first term as president, put Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei on a blacklist that restricted it from using U.S. suppliers. The Biden administration expanded on those moves by limiting U.S. sales of advanced semiconductors to China, and pressuring allies to do the same.

Both Democrats and Republicans supported the passage of those newer export controls and efforts to boost semiconductor manufacturing investment in the U.S., Chris Miller, author of “Chip War,” pointed out earlier this year. He expected the U.S. to increase such restrictions regardless of who won the election.

China has doubled down on bolstering its own tech by encouraging bank loans to high-end manufacturing. But the country had long benefited from U.S. capital as well as the ability to use U.S. software and high-end parts.

Republicans gained a majority in the Senate for the next two years, according to NBC News projections, though control of the House of Representatives remains unclear.

“If the Republican Party gains control of Congress, protectionist measures could be accelerated, amplifying impacts on the global economy and presenting significant downside risks,” Su said.

She expects Trump will likely impose such tariffs in the first half of next year, and could speed up the process by invoking the International Emergency Economic Powers Act or Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which allows the president to impose tariffs of up to 15% in response to a serious balance-of-payments deficit.

U.S. data shows that the trade deficit with China narrowed to $279.11 billion in 2023, from $346.83 billion in 2016.

Su estimated that a 10% tariff increase on Chinese exports to the U.S. could reduce Beijing’s real GDP growth by an average of 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points in the next two years, assuming other factors remain constant.

China’s exports to the U.S. fell by 14% last year to $500.29 billion, according to customs data on Wind Information. That’s still up from $385.08 billion in 2016, before Trump was sworn in for his first term.

Meanwhile, China’s annual imports from the U.S. climbed to $164.16 billion in 2023, up from $134.4 billion in 2016, the Chinese data showed.

Other analysts believe that Beijing will remain conservative, and trickle out stimulus over the coming months rather than release a large package on Friday.

China’s top leaders typically meet in mid-December to discuss economic plans for the year ahead. Then, officials would announce the growth target for the year at an annual parliamentary meeting in March.

“China will likely face much higher tariff from the U.S. next year. I expect policy response from China to also take place next year when higher tariff is imposed,” Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, said in a note Wednesday afternoon.

“I also don’t think the government will change the policies they already proposed to the NPC because of US election,” he said.

China’s growing global trade influence

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