Three stocks are generating buzz among day traders banking on a Donald Trump victory next week. Retail investors have increasingly focused in on Trump Media & Technology , Rumble and Phunware as stocks that can benefit if the Republican presidential nominee for president prevails. That’s already sent the names on wild moves — and they could be in for more as Americans head to the ballot box. Some of these stocks have clearer connections to the former president than others. Trump Media & Technology, which owns the alternative social media platform TruthSocial, trades under a ticker — DJT — that’s also the initials for the business mogul-turned-politician. Phunware made Trump’s campaign app, while Rumble is a video platform focused on conservatives. To be sure, these trades are considered risky due to high volatility and poor financials. None of these companies turned a profit in 2023. Trump Media, which has the largest market cap of the three, was still less than 25% of median S & P 500 stock size of $37.6 billion. On top of that, few — if any — analysts on Wall Street cover these names. The latest NBC News poll also shows the race between him and Vice President Kamala Harris is in a dead heat. “Making financial bets based on which stocks you think will do best based on an election outcome is not new,” said Christopher Schwarz, a finance professor at the University of California Irvine whose research focuses in part on retail traders. But when it comes to names like DJT, “these stocks have no fundamental reason to be at any price close to the price they’re at.” Still, these names are bound to make headlines and appearances on forums like Reddit’s WallStreetBets in the runup to and directly following the election. CNBC compiled more information about these names and what’s driving interest from some traders: Trump Media & Technology The TruthSocial parent has gained the most attention given the nominee’s stake valued at more than $5 billion as of earlier this week. He holds around 114 million shares, which amounts to ownership of more than half of the company. The stock has seen volatile trading over recent days as voting day draws closer. Shares dove more than 20% on Wednesday, reversing course after jumping more than 8% the day prior. Before Wednesday, the stock had seen a pre-election rally. It pulled the shares out of a slump that at one point sent its price below the $12 mark. On Tuesday, it closed at $51.51. Shares are now more than 160% higher in October, which would mark its first positive month since March. Year to date, they are up more than 140%. Trump Media has seen the highest daily net inflows from retail investors of the year over recent days, according to data analyzed by Vanda Research. That underscores the pour into the name amid the pre-election rally. On Tuesday alone, retail traders were net buyers of Trump Media to the tune of $14.4 million. It’s also been the most discussed stock on WallStreetBets, the popular Reddit forum for meme stock traders, over the last seven days, according to data from Quiver Quantitative as of Wednesday afternoon. The stock has been named more than 17,000 times on the forum this year, the firm said. The U.S. president and vice president are largely exempt from government conflict of interest rules. Still, Trump would be the first to hold office while controlling a publicly traded company. His DJT holding equates to nearly 75% of his net worth. Trump has said that he has no plans to sell his position. “There’s never been, I don’t think, any particular case where the potential future President of the United States probably has such a direct economic impact on particular firms,” said UC Irvine’s Schwarz. Schwarz said there’s no reason for Trump Media to even be publicly traded given its business fundamentals and high price-to-sales ratio. Given that, he said trading is based solely on “speculation.” “Trump Media has no fundamental value — it’s worthless,” he said. “That’s why the outcome of the election probably has such a big impact on what the price of the stock is.” Trump Media reported a loss when looking at net income and EBITDA in 2023. The company had 36 employees as of the end of last year. Phunware and Rumble The other two stocks have a less direct connection to the Republican candidate. Phunware is billed as a mobile software and blockchain company. Beyond the Trump campaign app, Phunware lists Marriott, Atlantis and the Mayo Clinic among clients on its website . The stock has seen major swings over the past year, trading as high as above $24 and as low as below $3. The company employed just 25 people at the end of 2023 and saw losses when looking at net income and EBITDA that year, per FactSet. Phunware has also seen an uptick in net inflows from everyday investors in October, according to Vanda data. Shares have surged more than 140% in the month. It’s also up more than 80% in 2024, on track to snap a two-year losing streak. PHUN YTD mountain Phunware, year to date All four analysts polled by LSEG have buy ratings on the stock. The average price target implies shares can rise nearly 90% above the $15 mark. To be sure, price target estimates vary widely within this group — from as low as $8 to as high as $20. Rumble, on the other hand, hasn’t seen a similar spike as Nov. 5 gets closer. Still, the company is viewed as a Trump-connected play given its video platform that’s popular among conservatives. The company employed just under 160 people at the end of last year and also posted losses on net income and EBITDA in the year. It went public in September 2022 with the backing of PayPal cofounder Peter Thiel. Shares have risen 13% in October, bringing its year to date gain to 36%. Shares have traded within a tighter range over the last 52 weeks, sitting between $3.33 and $9.20. The two analysts surveyed by LSEG both have hold ratings on the stock. Both have an $8 price target, which suggests shares can climb more than 34% over the next year. — CNBC’s Robert Frank and Fred Imbert contributed to this report.
Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, testifies during the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee hearing titled Annual Oversight of Wall Street Firms, in the Hart Building on Dec. 6, 2023.
Tom Williams | Cq-roll Call, Inc. | Getty Images
With each passing day since President Donald Trump‘s sweeping tariff announcement last week, a growing sense of unease had begun to pervade Wall Street.
As stocks plunged and even the safe haven of U.S. Treasurys were selling off, investors, executives and analysts started to fret that a core assumption from the first Trump presidency may no longer apply.
Amid the market carnage, the world’s most powerful person showed that he had a greater tolerance for inflicting pain on investors than anyone had anticipated. Time after time, he and his deputies denied that the administration would back off from the highest American tariff regime in a century, sometimes inferring that Wall Street would have to suffer so that Main Street could thrive.
“It goes without saying that last week’s price action was shocking to see as the market has begun to rewrite completely its sense for what a second Trump presidency means for the economy,” said R. Scott Siefers, a Piper Sandler analyst, earlier this week.
So it came as a huge relief to investors when, minutes after 1 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Trump relented by rolling back the highest tariffs on most countries except China, sparking the biggest one-day stock rally for the S&P 500 since the depths of the 2008 financial crisis.
Despite a presidency in which Trump has tested the limits of executive power — bulldozing federal agencies and laying off thousands of government employees, for example — the episode shows that the market, and by proxy Wall Street statesmen like JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon who can explain its gyrations, are still guardrails on the administration.
Later Wednesday afternoon, Trump told reporters that he pivoted after seeing how markets were reacting — getting “yippy,” in his words — and took to heart Dimon’s warning in a morning TV appearance that the policy was pushing the U.S. economy into recession.
Dimon’s appearance in a Fox news interview was planned more than a month ago and wasn’t a last-minute decision meant to sway the president, according to a person with knowledge of the JPMorgan CEO’s schedule.
Bond vigilantes
Of particular concern to Trump and his advisors was the fear that his tariff policy could incite a global financial crisis after yields on U.S. government bonds jumped, according to the New York Times, which cited people with knowledge of the president’s thinking.
“The stock market, bond market and capital markets are, to a degree, a governor on the actions that are taken,” said Mike Mayo, the Wells Fargo bank analyst. “You were hearing about parts of the bond market that were under stress, trades that were blowing up. You push so hard, but you don’t want it to break.”
Typically, investors turn to Treasurys in times of uncertainty, but the sell-off indicated that institutional or sovereign players were dumping holdings, leading to higher borrowing costs for the government, businesses and consumers. That could’ve forced the Federal Reserve to intervene, as it has in previous crises, by slashing rates or acting as buyer of last resort for government bonds.
“The bond market was anticipating a real crisis,” Ed Yardeni, the veteran markets analyst, told CNBC’s Scott Wapner on Wednesday.
Yardeni said it was the “bond vigilantes” that got Trump’s attention; the term refers to the idea that investors can act as a type of enforcer on government behavior viewed as making it less likely they’ll get repaid.
Amid the market churn, Wall Street executives had reportedly worried that they didn’t have the influence they did under the first Trump administration, when ex-Goldman partners including Steven Mnuchin and Gary Cohn could be relied upon.
But this last week also showed investors that, in his mission to remake the global order of the past century, Trump is willing to take his adversarial approach with trading partners and the larger economy to the knife’s edge, which only invites more volatility.
‘Chaos discount’
Banks, closely watched for the central role they play in lending to corporations and consumers, entered the year with great enthusiasm after Trump’s election.
The setup was as promising as it had been in decades, according to Mayo and other analysts: A strengthening economy would help boost loan demand, while lower interest rates, deregulation and the return of deals activity including mergers and IPO listings would only add fuel to the fire.
Instead, by the last weekend, bank stocks were in a bear market, having given up all their gains since the election, on fears that Trump was steering the economy to recession. Amid the tumult, it’s likely that reports will show that deal-making slowed as corporate leaders adopt a wait-and-see attitude.
“The chaos discount, we call it,” said Brian Foran, an analyst at Truist bank.
Foran and other analysts said the Trump factor made it difficult to forecast whether the economy was heading for recession, which banks would be winners and losers in a trade war and, therefore, how much they should be worth.
Investors will next focus on JPMorgan, which kicks off the first-quarter earnings season on Friday. They will likely press Dimon and other CEOs about the health of the economy and how consumers and businesses are faring during tariff negotiations.
Wednesday’s reprieve could prove short lived. The day after Trump’s announcement and the historic rally, markets continued to decline. There remains a trade dispute between the world’s two largest economies, each with their own needs and vulnerabilities, and an unclear path to compromise. And universal tariffs of 10% are still in effect.
“We got close, and that’s a very uncomfortable place to be,” Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic advisor of Allianz, the Munich-based asset manager, said Wednesday on CNBC, referring to a crisis in which the Fed would need to step in.
“We don’t want to get there again,” he said. “The more you get to that point repeatedly, the higher the risk that you’re going to cross it.”
A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during afternoon trading on April 9, 2025 in New York.
Angela Weiss | Afp | Getty Images
A massive number of hedge fund short sellers rushed to close out their positions during Wednesday afternoon’s sudden surge in stocks, turning a stunning rally into one for the history books.
Traders — betting on share price declines — had piled on a record number of short bets against the U.S. stocks ahead of Wednesday as President Donald Trump initially rolled out steeper-than-expected tariffs.
In order to sell short, hedge funds borrow the security they’re betting against from a bank and sell it. Then as the security decreases in price from where they sold it, they buy it back more cheaply and return it to the bank, profiting from the difference.
But sometimes that can backfire.
As stocks soared on news of the tariff pause, hedge funds were forced to buy back their borrowed stocks rapidly in order to limit their losses, a Wall Street phenomenon known as a short squeeze. With this artificial buying force pushing it higher, the S&P 500 ended up with its third-biggest gain since World War II.
Coming into Wednesday, short positioning was almost twice as much as the size seen in the first quarter of 2020 amid the onset of the Covid pandemic, according to Bank of America. As funds ran to cover, a basket of the most shorted stocks surged by 12.5% Wednesday, according to Goldman Sachs, pulling off a larger jump than the S&P 500‘s 9.5% gain.
And a whopping 30 billion shares traded on U.S. exchanges during the session, marking the heaviest volume day on record, according to Nasdaq and FactSet data going back 18 years.
“You can’t catch a move. When you see someone short covering, the exit doors become so small because of these crowded trades,” said Jeff Kilburg, KKM Financial CEO and CIO. “We live in a world where there’s more and more twitchiness to the marketplace, there’s more and more paranoia.”
S&P 500
Of course, there were real buyers too. Long-only funds bought a record amount of tech stocks during the session, especially the last three hours of the day, according to data from Bank of America.
But traders credit the shorts running for cover for the magnitude of the move.
“The pain on the short side is palpable; the whipsaw we have witnessed the past few weeks is extreme,” Oppenheimer’s trading desk said in a note. “What we saw in tech on that rise was obviously covering but more so real buyers adding on to higher quality semis.”
Thin liquidity also played a role in Wednesday’s monster moves. The size of stock futures (CME E-Mini S&P 500 Futures) one can trade with the click of your mouse dropped to an all-time low of $2 million on Monday, according to Goldman Sachs data. Drastically thin markets tends to fuel outsized price swings.
Markets were pulling back Thursday as investors realized the economy is still in danger from super-high China tariffs and the uncertainty that daily negotiations with other countries will bring over the next three months.
There are still big short positions left in the market, traders said.
That could fuel things again, if the market starts to rally again.
“The desk view is that short covering is far from over,” Bank of America’s trading desk said in a note. “Our reasoning is that the market can’t de-risk a short in less than 3 hours which provided 20%+ SPX Index downside & major reduction in NET LEVERAGE over 7 seven weeks.”
“No shot it cleared in less than 3 hours,” Bank of America said.