Voters walk to cast their ballots during early voting in the presidential election at a polling station at the C. Blythe Andrews, Jr. Public Library in Tampa, Florida, U.S., November 1, 2024.
Octavio Jones | Reuters
Executives at America’s largest companies are talking publicly with investors about the presidential election more so than in recent cycles.
The word “election” came up on 100 earnings calls of S&P 500-listed firms between Sept. 15 and Oct. 31, according to FactSet. That’s the highest number of companies in the broad index mentioning the word during that timeframe, according to CNBC screens of the same period going back to 2004.
The economy is on the minds of everyday Americans as they head to the polls for what’s shaping up to be a neck-and-neck race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. At the same time, white-collar leaders are considering potential policy impacts on their businesses, while lamenting a general uncertainty tied to the political season.
“Because of election uncertainty and a variety of other things, you can feel a little bit of caution out there,” Dover CEO Richard Tobin told analysts on the specialty manufacturer’s earnings call in late October.
FactSet senior earnings analyst John Butters first pointed out the volume of companies discussing elections in recent weeks. Notably, his data found that very few executives of S&P 500 companies mentioned Harris or Trump by name, talking about the race more broadly.
‘Prudent’ clients
Multiple companies cited a feeling of unpredictability tied to the presidential race among consumers and business clients.
At Tractor Supply, CEO Harry Lawton said its customer was expected to remain “prudent” like past election years. That comes after the farm-focused retailer reported a bump in emergency response sales to start the quarter following Hurricanes Helene and Milton.
Southwest Airlines, meanwhile, expects a “trough” in air travel around Election Day, according to operations chief Andrew Watterson. But when it comes to booking trends, Royal Caribbean CEO Michael Bayley said there has historically been no long-term impact from presidential elections, though the cruise line may see some volatility the week of the contest.
Southwest Airlines airplanes are serviced at their gates at Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport on May 18, 2024, in Fort Lauderdale, Florida.
Gary Hershorn | Corbis News | Getty Images
In addition to Election Day, market participants and business leaders are also closely monitoring the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting next week. Tool maker Stanley Black & Decker CEO Donald Allan listed both the election and interest rates as reasons to anticipate “choppy markets” into the first half of 2025.
Fed funds futures are pricing in a roughly 96% chance of a decrease to the borrowing cost at the November meeting, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool as of Friday evening. That comes after the central bank in September issued its first rate cut since 2020.
Stanley Black & Decker’s Allan also pointed out Trump’s policy on taxing imports, noting that America would be “likely in a new tariff regime.” The Republican nominee has said he plans to impose a 20% tax on imports, with an extra high rate of 60% on those coming from China.
William Grogan, CFO of water infrastructure company Xylem, said the election is one factor creating a “little bit of a pause” in the industrial market for big projects. Republic Services CEO Jon Vander Ark said the waste disposal company sees “a little bit of paralysis in an election year,” but he’s optimistic heading into the end of 2024 and start of 2025.
Watching the economy
More broadly, Eric Ashleman CEO of Idex, which makes components for everything from air bags to DNA testing equipment, said the race hasn’t helped the economic backdrop recently.
Nonfarm payrolls grew by the smallest number of jobs in October going back to late 2020 due to hurricanes and the Boeing strike. In this vein, Equifax said it saw softness in background screening volumes as executives consider what the outcome can mean for their businesses.
“Coming into the election, it feels like companies are being a little more prudent about the new hiring,” Equifax CEO Mark Begor said.
To be sure, some of the “election” mentions this year were tied to unrelated events like enrollment periods for health care. Other firms ranging from software company Tyler Technologies to credit card giant American Express said they haven’t felt impacts from the election on the business.
“This company has been around a long time,” American Express CEO Stephen Squeri told analysts last month. “I mean, obviously, we didn’t have cards 174 years ago. But we’ve been around for lots of different elections; lots of different configurations of the House, the Senate and so forth.”
Equity Residential CEO Mark Parrell, meanwhile, said state and local government is considered more important to the business than which party is victorious on the top of the ticket. Indeed, the company is a real estate investment trust that invests in apartments.
Moving forward
Still, this cycle has appeared to engage a uniquely high number of leaders within corporate America’s largest firms. The 2024 mentions count equates to the word “election” during that timeframe coming up on calls of around one in every five companies within the S&P 500. It’s also more than triple the number of references during the same period in 2008.
D.R. Horton is seeing buyers “stay on the sidelines” given the expectation for lower mortgage rates in 2025 and the stress tied to the election, according to CEO Paul Romanowski. The homebuilder is attempting to boost demand by offering mortgage buydowns and focusing on building houses with smaller floor plans, he said.
Another member of D.R. Horton’s C-suite spoke about the election more bluntly.
“I think everybody would be happy the election is over,” chief operating officer Michael Murray told analysts on the company’s earnings call. “I think that will help buyer sentiment and the ability to move forward with their life decision.”
Inflation barely budged in April as tariffs President Donald Trump implemented in the early part of the month had yet to show up in consumer prices, the Commerce Department reported Friday.
The personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s key inflation measure, increased just 0.1% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 2.1%. The monthly reading was in line with the Dow Jones consensus forecast while the annual level was 0.1 percentage point lower.
Excluding food and energy, the core reading that tends to get even greater focus from Fed policymakers showed readings of 0.1% and 2.5%, against respective estimates of 0.1% and 2.6%.
Consumer spending, though, slowed sharply for the month, posting just a 0.2% increase, in line with the consensus but slower than the 0.7% rate in March. A more cautious consumer mood also was reflected in the personal savings rate, which jumped to 4.9%, up from 0.6 percentage point in March to the highest level in nearly a year.
Personal income surged 0.8%, a slight increase from the prior month but well ahead of the forecast for 0.3%.
Markets showed little reaction to the news, with stock futures continuing to point lower and Treasury yields mixed.
People shop at a grocery store in Brooklyn on May 13, 2025 in New York City.
Spencer Platt | Getty Images
Trump has been pushing the Fed to lower its key interest rate as inflation has continued to gravitate back to the central bank’s 2% target. However, policymakers have been hesitant to move as they await the longer-term impacts of the president’s trade policy.
On Thursday, Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell held their first face-to-face meeting since the president started his second term. However, a Fed statement indicated the future path of monetary policy was not discussed and stressed that decisions would be made free of political considerations.
Trump slapped across-the-board 10% duties on all U.S. imports, part of an effort to even out a trading landscape in which the U.S. ran a record $140.5 billion deficit in March. In addition to the general tariffs, Trump launched selective reciprocal tariffs much higher than the 10% general charge.
Since then, though, Trump has backed off the more severe tariffs in favor of a 90-day negotiating period with the affected countries. Earlier this week, an international court struck down the tariffs, saying Trump exceeded his authority and didn’t prove that national security was threatened by the trade issues.
Then in the latest installment of the drama, an appeals court allowed a White House effort for a temporary stay of the order from the U.S. Court of International Trade.
Economists worry that tariffs could spark another round of inflation, though the historical record shows that their impact is often minimal.
At their policy meeting earlier this month, Fed officials also expressed worry about potential tariff inflation, particularly at a time when concerns are rising about the labor market. Higher prices and slower economic growth can yield stagflation, a phenomenon the U.S. hasn’t seen since the early 1980s.
19 May 2025, Berlin: Apricots are sold at a greengrocer for 7.98 euros per kilogram. Grapes and papaya are also on offer.
Photo by Jens Kalaene/picture alliance via Getty Images
Germany’s annual inflation hit 2.1% in May approaching the European Central Bank’s 2% target but coming in slightly hotter than analyst estimates, preliminary data from statistics office Destatis showed Friday.
The print compares with a 2.2% reading in April and with a Reuters projection of 2%.
The print is harmonized across the euro zone for comparability.
So-called core inflation, which strips out more volatile food and energy prices, dipped slightly from April’s 2.8% to 2.9% in May. The closely watched services print meanwhile eased sharply, coming in at 3.4% compared to 3.9% in the previous month.
Energy prices fell markedly for the second month in a row, tumbling by 4.6% in May.
Germany’s consumer price index has been closing in on the European Central Bank’s 2% target over recent months, in a positive signal amid ongoing uncertainty about the economic outlook for Europe’s largest economy.
Domestic and global issues have mired expectations for Germany’s financial future.
One the one hand, U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs could damage economic growth, given Germany’s status as an export-reliant country, though the potential impact of such duties on inflation remains unclear. But frequent policy shifts and developments have been muddying the picture.
On the other hand, Germany’s newly minted government is starting to get to work and has made the economy a top priority. Questions linger about when and to what extent the new Berlin administration’s policy plans might be realized.
The ECB is set to make its next interest rate decision on June 5, with traders last pricing in an over 96% chance of a quarter point interest rate reduction, according to LSEG data. Back in April, the central bank had cut its deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%.
This is a breaking news story, please check back for updates.