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A much-watched poll from Iowa points to a Harris landslide

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AS THE ELECTION approaches its climax, dozens of opinion polls of American voters are churned out each day. None is so eagerly awaited as the final Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll of Iowa, produced by Selzer & Co, a polling firm. On “Election Twitter”—the colloquial name for a community of political-data junkies on X—this particular poll has taken on a legendary status. On the evening of November 2nd, it showed Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump in Iowa, sending Election Twitter into a frenzy. Why?

Selzer & Co is a high-quality pollster. It is rated as one of the best in the country by FiveThirtyEight, a data-journalism outfit that tracks polling accuracy. The Selzer Poll is recognised for its success projecting the Iowa caucus—the early test that has been a staging ground for presidential nominees. And the pollster’s predictive powers in presidential elections has been stretched beyond Iowa, the state it usually surveys.

In the past five presidential elections, the final Iowa polls by Selzer and Co have had an average absolute error of 3.1 percentage points in the state. They have predicted the result in Iowa correctly four out of five times—an impressive record. But the most surprising thing about this record is that the Selzer Poll performs better in some states other than Iowa, where its respondents live.

Taking the implied change in vote shares from the Iowa poll and applying them to other states, the average absolute error is lower in four of them than in Iowa: North Dakota, South Dakota, Michigan and Wisconsin. Indeed, this crude method outperforms 14 states’ own polling averages from 2004 to 2020. The strange phenomenon has been particularly striking in the past two presidential cycles, when Michigan and Wisconsin were crucial battleground states. Polls in those states underestimated Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, whereas the Selzer Poll did not.

Despite the obvious point that a poll of Iowans cannot be directly translated to Michiganders or Wisconsinites, for some poll-watchers the survey has taken on a near-mythical ability to forecast the election across the country. If that were the case, the results published on Saturday would be very good news for Ms Harris. The poll shows her leading in Iowa by three percentage points; Mr Trump won the state by eight points in 2020. Applying that shift across the country would see Ms Harris win the election in a landslide, with 416 electoral-college votes.

Democrats should not celebrate too soon. It is true that states such as Wisconsin and Michigan have characteristics in common with Iowa, but the Selzer Poll’s historical out-of-state record is probably a fluke. With only five polls to go on (Ms Selzer has been running the Iowa poll since 1987 but archived results have not been digitised), the sample is too small to say if the Iowa poll is truly predictive of other states. Even within the state, the record is not perfect. The poll estimated Barack Obama to have a lead of 17 points in 2008, for example, and he went on to win by just ten. Taking the average error from previous Iowa polls in each state, the projected advantage for Ms Harris is within the margin of error in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona, among the key states.

That said, our forecast gives Ms Harris a 4-in-100 chance of flipping Iowa now that the Selzer Poll is included. It is a respected survey which happens to have outperformed other pollsters, even outside Iowa. If Saturday’s reading correctly foretells a landslide for Ms Harris, prepare for the Selzer Poll to enjoy even greater veneration.

Economics

Donald Trump chooses hedge fund executive Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary

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Scott Bessent, founder and chief executive officer of Key Square Group LP, during an interview in Washington, DC, US, on Friday, June 7, 2024.

Stefani Reynolds | Bloomberg | Getty Images

President-elect Donald Trump has signaled his intention to nominate hedge fund executive Scott Bessent as his Treasury secretary, sources tell CNBC and NBC News.

The founder of Key Square Group had been considered a strong favorite for the position along with a few other close contenders.

As head of Treasury, Bessent, 62, will be both the U.S. fiscal watchdog as well as a key official to help Trump enact his ambitious economic agenda. Both a Wall Street heavyweight and advocate for many of the incoming president’s economic goals, he would come to office at a critical time as the U.S. wrestles with a growing economy alongside long-festering debt and deficit issues.

Like Trump, Bessent favors gradual tariffs and deregulation to push American business and control inflation. In addition, Bessent has advocated for a revival in manufacturing as well as energy independence.

The prospective nominee also has deep philanthropic ties through Yale University along with Rockefeller University and Classical American homes Preservation Trust.

One obstacle Bessent will have to overcome is his past affiliation with billionaire investor and global gadfly George Soros. Bessent served as chief investment officer for Soros’ fund.

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Economics

Trump might name Kevin Warsh as Treasury chief then Fed chair later, report says

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Kevin Warsh

Jin Lee | Bloomberg | Getty Images

President-elect Donald Trump is considering naming Kevin Warsh as Treasury secretary then ultimately sending him off to serve as Federal Reserve chair, according to a Wall Street Journal report.

A former Fed governor himself, Warsh would move over to the central bank after current Chair Jerome Powell’s term expires in 2026, according to the Journal, which cited sources familiar with Trump’s thinking.

The speculation comes with Treasury being the last major Cabinet position for which Trump has yet to state his intention.

Various reports have put Warsh as one of the finalists with Apollo Global Management CEO Marc Rowan and hedge fund manager Scott Bessent. Among the potential scenarios would be one where Bessent would lead the National Economic Council initially then go over to Treasury after Warsh takes over at the Fed.

However, Trump is known for the propensity to change his mind, and the report noted that nothing has been finalized.

Read the full Wall Street Journal story here.

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Economics

Matt Gaetz withdraws from consideration as America’s attorney-general

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MATT GAETZ, Donald Trump’s choice for America’s attorney-general, spent November 20th meeting senators and telling reporters it had been “a great day of momentum”. The next day, however, Mr Gaetz withdrew his name from consideration, acknowledging that “my confirmation was unfairly becoming a distraction.” This was not self-effacement from a MAGA firebrand, but a reflection of reality: Mr Gaetz had little chance of being confirmed even by a Republican-controlled Senate. The Republican Party may belong to Mr Trump, but his power is not absolute.

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