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China gears up for big week ahead of U.S. elections, stimulus hopes

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A flag stall at the Yiwu Wholesale Market in Zhejiang province, China, on May 10, 2019.

Aly Song | Reuters

BEIJING — The size of China’s highly anticipated stimulus plans will likely depend on the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, analysts said.

Investors expect Beijing to announce details on fiscal support Friday. That’s when the standing committee of the National People’s Congress — China’s parliament — is due to wrap up a five-day meeting. The same gathering last year oversaw a rare increase in the fiscal deficit.

This year, the meeting’s timing means any details will be out just days after the U.S. has voted Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat rival Kamala Harris in as the next president. Polls are set to close Tuesday local time.

“The size of China’s fiscal stimulus package would be around 10~20% bigger under a Trump win than under the scenario of a Harris win,” Ting Lu, chief China economist at Nomura, said in a note last week.

He cautioned that most of China’s challenges are domestic, though there will be some impact from the U.S. election result.

Stimulus in infrastructure and property, not consumer, will be 'much more positive' for China

Trump has threatened to raise tariffs on U.S. imports from China by 60% — or reportedly by even 200% in an extreme scenario. Harris, currently vice president, has not yet signaled a major departure from the Biden administration’s approach of restricting China’s access to advanced technology.

More tariffs would hit China’s exports, a bright spot in an economy grappling with a real estate slump and tepid consumer demand.

Increased trade restrictions would require China to rely more on domestic demand to boost growth, Zhu Bin, chief economist of Nanhua Futures, said in a video presentation last week. That’s according to a CNBC translation of his Mandarin-language comments.

“Without question we can be certain of one thing — if Trump wins the election, China’s domestic stimulus will only be larger, not smaller,” Zhu said. He expects Trump has a greater chance of winning, which he said would increase downward pressure on the Chinese yuan versus the U.S. dollar.

Political analysts debate whether China’s relations with the U.S. would be better under Trump or Harris.

“I think at this point, probably from China’s view, a potential president Harris [makes it] easier to expect what policies likely come,” said Liqian Ren, leader of quantitative investment at WisdomTree.

That doesn’t mean Beijing will embark on large-scale support. Chinese authorities are “constrained by the U.S.-China competition, so the priority number one is to be able to upgrade technology across the board,” She said. “I think as long as that’s your goal then the government’s willingness to stimulate is still going to be lukewarm.”

Ren expects the scale of stimulus will be determined not by who wins the election, but the stock market reaction.

Market volatility in China, but not the United states, is likely to make “China feel more obligated to counter this volatility,” she said. In contrast to three or four years ago, Ren said, Chinese stock market volatility today has a greater impact on economic confidence.

Chinese stocks have tempered their gains in recent weeks after surging in late September. Chinese President Xi Jinping on Sept. 26 led a high-level meeting calling for strengthening fiscal and monetary policy support, and halting the decline in real estate.

While the People’s Bank of China has cut interest rates, the Ministry of Finance has yet to release details on widely anticipated fiscal stimulus. Finance Minister Lan Fo’an last month hinted at an increase in the deficit, and indicated any changes needed to undergo an approval process before being announced.

How large?

Analyst forecasts for additional debt issuance vary. China is considering more than 10 trillion yuan in debt issuance over a few years, Reuters reported Tuesday, citing sources.

Chinese authorities may not announce a specific number, but if they do, it should be more than 4 trillion yuan, given that was the amount issued in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, said Zong Liang, chief researcher at Bank of China. He expects the deficit could be expanded beyond 4%.

The Chinese government set a deficit target of 3% for this year, after increasing it to 3.8% late last year.

WisdomTree’s Ren said her analysis of official statements, media reports and investment notes revealed that stimulus expectations are inherently about the same. Whether it is 10 trillion yuan over three to five years, or 2 trillion yuan in one year, the average is about 2 trillion yuan in support a year, she pointed out.

Consumption still in question

“I think people right now are focusing a lot on the topline number,” Ren said. “But they are missing [how] the local government, they are doing a lot of things that are actually counter[ing] stimulus.”

She noted how local authorities have so strictly enforced tax collection in some areas that they have discouraged business activity. Despite some central government support, she said, she expects it will “probably be quite a while” before local authorities “feel they have the cash to spend.”

Dozens of companies in China this year disclosed in stock exchange filings that they have received notices from local authorities to pay back taxes tied to operations as far back as 1994. Local governments once relied on land sales to real estate developers for revenue.

The finance ministry has emphasized its focus on addressing local government debt problems. Analysts have pointed out how additional stimulus will also likely go toward banks, not direct handouts to consumers.

Consumption stimulus may come more from property support at this stage, Citi analysts said in a report Friday. “Having said that, we believe more decisive consumption support could still be a realistic option under more adverse tariff scenarios.”

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Where ‘Made in China 2025’ missed the mark

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Smart robotic arms work on the production line at the production workshop of Changqing Auto Parts Co., LTD., located in Anqing Economic Development Zone, Anhui Province, China, on March 13, 2025. (Photo by Costfoto/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images

BEIJING — China missed several key targets from its 10-year plan to become self-sufficient in technology, while fostering unhealthy industrial competition which worsened global trade tensions, the European Chamber of Commerce in China said in a report this week.

When Beijing released its “Made in China 2025” plan in 2015, it was met with significant international criticism for promoting Chinese business at the expense of their foreign counterparts. The country subsequently downplayed the initiative, but has doubled-down on domestic tech development given U.S. restrictions in the last several years.

Since releasing the plan, China has exceeded its targets on achieving domestic dominance in autos, but the country has not yet reached its targets in aerospace, high-end robots and the growth rate of manufacturing value-added, the business chamber said, citing its research and discussions with members. Out of ten strategic sectors identified in the report, China only attained technological dominance in shipbuilding, high-speed rail and electric cars.

China’s targets are generally seen as a direction rather than an actual figure to be achieved by a specific date. The Made In China 2025 plan outlines the first ten years of what the country called a ‘multi-decade strategy’ to become a global manufacturing powerhouse.

The chamber pointed out that China’s self-developed airplane, the C919, still relies heavily on U.S. and European parts and though industrial automation levels have “increased substantially,” it is primarily due to foreign technology. In addition, the growth rate of manufacturing value add reached 6.1% in 2024, falling from the 7% rate in 2015 and just over halfway toward reaching the target of 11%.

“Everyone should consider themselves lucky that China missed its manufacturing growth target,” Jens Eskelund, president of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, told reporters Tuesday, since the reverse would have exacerbated pressure on global competitors. They didn’t fulfill their own target, but I actually think they did astoundingly well.”

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Even at that slower pace, China has transformed itself over the last decade to drive 29% of global manufacturing value add — almost the same as the U.S. and Europe combined, Eskelund said. “Before 2015, in many, many categories China was not a direct competitor of Europe and the United States.”

The U.S. in recent years has sought to restrict China’s access to high-end tech, and encourage advanced manufacturing companies to build factories in America.

Earlier this week, the U.S. issued exporting licensing requirements for U.S.-based chipmaker Nvidia’s H20 and AMD’s MI308 artificial intelligence chips, as well as their equivalents, to China. Prior to that, Nvidia said that it would take a quarterly charge of about $5.5 billion as a result of the new exporting licensing requirements. The chipmaker’s CEO Jensen Huang met with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Beijing on Thursday, according to Chinese state media.

The U.S. restrictions have “pushed us to make things that previously we would not have thought we had to buy,” said Lionel M. Ni, founding president of the Guangzhou campus of the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. That’s according to a CNBC translation of his Mandarin-language remarks to reporters on Wednesday.

Ni said the products requiring home-grown development efforts included chips and equipment, and if substitutes for restricted items weren’t immediately available, the university would buy the second-best version available.

In addition to thematic plans, China issues national development priorities every five years. The current 14th five-year plan emphasizes support for the digital economy and wraps up in December. The subsequent 15th five-year plan is scheduled to be released next year.

China catching up

It remains unclear to what extent China can become completely self-sufficient in key technological systems in the near term. But local companies have made rapid strides.

Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei released a smartphone in late 2023 that reportedly contained an advanced chip capable of 5G speeds. The company has been on a U.S. blacklist since 2019 and released its own operating system last year that is reportedly completely separate from Google’s Android.

“Western chip export controls have had some success in that they briefly set back China’s developmental efforts in semiconductors, albeit at some cost to the United States and allied firms,” analysts at the Washington, D.C.,-based think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies, said in a report this week. However, they noted that China has only doubled down, “potentially destabilizing the U.S. semiconductor ecosystem.”

For example, the thinktank pointed out, Huawei’s current generation smartphone, the Pura 70 series, incorporates 33 China-sourced components and only 5 sourced from outside of China.

Huawei reported a 22% surge in revenue in 2024 — the fastest growth since 2016 — buoyed by a recovery in its consumer products business. The company spent 20.8% of its revenue on research and development last year, well above its annual goal of more than 10%.

Overall, China manufacturers reached the nationwide 1.68% target for spending on research and development as a percentage of operating revenue, the EU Chamber report said.

“‘Europe needs to take a hard look at itself,” Eskelund said, referring to Huawei’s high R&D spend. “Are European companies doing what is needed to remain at the cutting edge of technology?”

Dutch semiconductor equipment firm ASML spent 15.2% of its net sales in 2024 on R&D, while Nvidia’s ratio was 14.2%.

Overcapacity and security concerns

However, high spending doesn’t necessarily mean efficiency.

The electric car race in particular has prompted a price war, with most automakers running losses in their attempt to undercut competitors. The phenomenon is often called “neijuan” or “involution” in China.

“We also need to realize [China’s] success has not come without problems,” Eskelund said. “We are seeing across a great many industries it has not translated into healthy business.”

He added that the attempt to fulfill “Made in China 2025” targets contributed to involution, and pointed out that China’s efforts to move up the manufacturing value chain from Christmas ornaments to high-end equipment have also increased global worries about security risks.

In an annual government work report delivered in March, Chinese Premier Li Qiang called for efforts to halt involution, echoing a directive from a high-level Politburo meeting in July last year. The Politburo is the second-highest circle of power in the ruling Chinese Communist Party.

Such fierce competition compounds the impact of already slowing economic growth. Out of 2,825 mainland China-listed companies, 20% reported a loss for the first time in 2024, according to a CNBC analysis of Wind Information data as of Thursday. Including companies that reported yet another year of losses, the share of companies that lost money last year rose to nearly 48%, the analysis showed.

China in March emphasized that boosting consumption is its priority for the year, after previously focusing on manufacturing. Retail sales growth have lagged behind industrial production on a year-to-date basis since the beginning of 2024, according to official data accessed via Wind Information.

Policymakers are also looking for ways to ensure “a better match between manufacturing output and what the domestic market can absorb,” Eskelund said, adding that efforts to boost consumption don’t matter much if manufacturing output grows even faster.

But when asked about policies that could address manufacturing overcapacity, he said, “We are also eagerly waiting in anticipation.”

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Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: HTZ, UNH, LLY

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Stocks making the biggest moves midday: LLY, GOOGL, HTZ, UNH

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