Connect with us

Finance

Wall Street expects Trump presidency will unlock deal-making

Published

on

Attendees cheer as a broadcast of former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trum speaking at his Florida election party is shown on a screen at the Nevada GOP election watch party in Las Vegas, Nevada on November 6, 2024. 

Ronda Churchill | Afp | Getty Images

Wall Street dealmakers and corporate leaders expect the flood gates to open on merger and acquisition activity after President-elect Donald Trump takes office in January.

And he’ll likely have congressional help. Trump defeated Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris, and Republicans claimed a majority of the Senate in elections this week. That red wave is expected to spell loosening regulations on deal-making, with plenty of pent-up demand.

“We know kind of where the world is headed in a Trump environment because we’ve seen it before,” said Jeffrey Solomon, president of TD Cowen, on CNBC’s “Money Movers” Wednesday. “I think the regulatory environment will be much more conducive to economic growth. There will be lighter and targeted regulation.”

Solomon added that the scaled-back regulation will be focused on certain areas “of particular interest to the Trump administration,” rather than a broad based reassessment of the entire landscape.

In recent years, there has been greater scrutiny of pending deals by the Biden administration’s Department of Justice and Federal Trade Commission, headed by Chair Lina Khan. Some have pointed to that dynamic as a chilling factor on deal flow. High interest rates and soaring company valuations have contributed, too.

Khan said in September that “when you see greater scrutiny of mergers, you can see greater deterrence of illegal mergers.” Her hard line has drawn harsh criticism, but now, there’s optimism around a forthcoming FTC with a lighter hand.

“Assuming interest rates drop and you see corporate tax rates go down, the ingredients are there for a really active M&A market,” said one top dealmaker, who talked to CNBC on the condition of anonymity to speak candidly.

On Wednesday, markets rallied on the Republican presidential win, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average soaring 1,500 points to a new record high.

Sector specific

Some sectors, including financial and pharmaceutical industries in particular, are likely to get a lift under a second Trump regime, experts said.

“We could see domestic manufacturing benefit from increased tariffs as well as a growth in technology, which slowed down from a tighter antitrust environment,” said Howard Gutman, private equity strategy and coverage lead for MorganFranklin Consulting. “Additionally, we expect the aerospace and defense industry to grow as it has historically done during past Republican administrations paired with the broader geopolitical environment.”

Other industries, such as tech, may still face an uphill battle in getting deals done.

One M&A advisor, who also spoke to CNBC anonymously, noted that Trump’s disdain for Big Tech companies — historically active deal-makers — might keep them on the sidelines. On Wednesday, tech leaders took to social media to congratulate Trump.

Apparent GOP opposition to the CHIPS Act means that semiconductor consolidation might be challenging, the advisor noted, while cautioning it is still too early to know what a Trump presidency would mean. CNBC previously reported that Qualcomm recently approached Intel about a potential takeover.

“I think the simplest way to put it is more deals, less regulation with the administration having its thumb on the scale, perhaps with a willingness to pick winners and losers,” said Jonathan Miller, chief executive of Integrated Media, which specializes in digital media investments.

Regional banks, many of which recognize the need for scale, will also likely look to consolidate, said one former industry executive. That advisor noted that smaller banks had been getting gobbled up for “some time,” but that the pace and size of those acquisitions would likely ramp up under a Trump presidency.

Pharmaceutical executives are also optimistic that lighter antitrust enforcement could clear the way for deal-making, said one health-care-focused M&A advisor, who added that antitrust enforcement could have “hardly gotten worse” under either administration but now believes things will improve “meaningfully.”

Khan has taken on scores of biopharma mergers over the last four years, arguing that monopolies will stifle the development of new drugs in certain disease areas and hurt consumer choice. Biotech company Illumina last year said it would divest diagnostic test maker Grail after heated battles with the FTC and European antitrust regulators.

Also last year, the FTC blocked Sanofi’s proposed acquisition of a drug in development for Pompe disease, a genetic condition, from Maze Therapeutics. Sanofi ultimately terminated that deal.

“Whether or not Lina Khan is bounced day one is a key consideration, but even if fewer changes at the FTC take place, there is no doubt this administration — at least on paper — will be far more amicable when it comes to business combinations,” Jared Holz, Mizuho health-care equity strategist, said in an email on Wednesday.

One top dealmaker expected an M&A uptick broadly, but agreed that the financial sector and pharmaceuticals were particularly poised for a resurgence. That deal-maker also noted that with the Senate flipping, more outspoken antitrust voices like Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., could find it more difficult to push for DOJ or FTC investigations.

Eyes on retail, media

David Zaslav at the Allen & Company Sun Valley Conference on July 9, 2024 in Sun Valley, Idaho.

David Grogan | CNBC

A Trump presidency could usher in a number of retail deals that have been hamstrung by the FTC. Kroger’s bid to take over grocery chain Albertsons could have a better chance of getting approved under Trump, as could Tapestry’s proposed acquisition of Capri.

The merger between Kroger and Albertsons is currently under review by a federal judge, while Tapestry is working to appeal a federal order that granted the FTC’s motion for a preliminary injunction against the tie-up.

“The hostile approach of the FTC to mergers and acquisitions will almost certainly be reset and replaced with a worldview that is more favorable to corporate dealmaking,” said GlobalData managing director Neil Saunders. “This does not necessarily mean that big deals like Kroger-Albertsons will be waved through, but it does mean others like Tapestry-Capri will receive a far warmer reception than they have under the Biden administration.”

Meanwhile, ongoing turmoil in the media industry has led many to consider consolidation as the next step for the sector.

Warner Bros. Discovery CEO David Zaslav on Thursday highlighted opportunities that could come up if regulations were to loosen, doubling down on comments he made earlier this year at Allen & Co.’s annual Sun Valley conference.

“We have an upcoming new administration. … It’s too early to tell, but it may offer a pace of change and opportunity for consolidation that may be quite different, that would provide a real positive and accelerated impact on this industry that’s needed,” Zaslav said on an earnings call.

Broadcast station group owner Sinclair on Wednesday echoed a similar sentiment.

“We’re very excited about the upcoming regulatory environment,” CEO Chris Ripley said during an earnings call. “It does feel like a cloud over the industry is lifting here.”

Still, the track record between the previous Trump administration and the Biden administration for media industry deals is split.

Trump’s DOJ allowed Disney to buy Fox’s assets, but then sued to block AT&T’s deal for Time Warner.

Under the Biden administration, Amazon’s $8.5 billion deal for MGM and the merger of Warner Bros. and Discovery Communications were both waved through, but a federal judge blocked the $2.2 billion sale of Simon & Schuster to Penguin Random House.

Skydance Media and Paramount Global agreed to merge earlier this year and expect to receive regulatory approval in 2025.

Watch CNBC's full interview with Jeff Solomon, TD Cowen president

Continue Reading

Finance

Stocks making the biggest moves midday: WOOF, TSLA, CRCL, LULU

Published

on

Continue Reading

Finance

Swiss government proposes tough new capital rules in major blow to UBS

Published

on

A sign in German that reads “part of the UBS group” in Basel on May 5, 2025.

Fabrice Coffrini | AFP | Getty Images

The Swiss government on Friday proposed strict new capital rules that would require banking giant UBS to hold an additional $26 billion in core capital, following its 2023 takeover of stricken rival Credit Suisse.

The measures would also mean that UBS will need to fully capitalize its foreign units and carry out fewer share buybacks.

“The rise in the going-concern requirement needs to be met with up to USD 26 billion of CET1 capital, to allow the AT1 bond holdings to be reduced by around USD 8 billion,” the government said in a Friday statement, referring to UBS’ holding of Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bonds.

The Swiss National Bank said it supported the measures from the government as they will “significantly strengthen” UBS’ resilience.

“As well as reducing the likelihood of a large systemically important bank such as UBS getting into financial distress, this measure also increases a bank’s room for manoeuvre to stabilise itself in a crisis through its own efforts. This makes it less likely that UBS has to be bailed out by the government in the event of a crisis,” SNB said in a Friday statement.

‘Too big to fail’

UBS has been battling the specter of tighter capital rules since acquiring the country’s second-largest bank at a cut-price following years of strategic errors, mismanagement and scandals at Credit Suisse.

The shock demise of the banking giant also brought Swiss financial regulator FINMA under fire for its perceived scarce supervision of the bank and the ultimate timing of its intervention.

Swiss regulators argue that UBS must have stronger capital requirements to safeguard the national economy and financial system, given the bank’s balance topped $1.7 trillion in 2023, roughly double the projected Swiss economic output of last year. UBS insists it is not “too big to fail” and that the additional capital requirements — set to drain its cash liquidity — will impact the bank’s competitiveness.

At the heart of the standoff are pressing concerns over UBS’ ability to buffer any prospective losses at its foreign units, where it has, until now, had the duty to back 60% of capital with capital at the parent bank.

Higher capital requirements can whittle down a bank’s balance sheet and credit supply by bolstering a lender’s funding costs and choking off their willingness to lend — as well as waning their appetite for risk. For shareholders, of note will be the potential impact on discretionary funds available for distribution, including dividends, share buybacks and bonus payments.

“While winding down Credit Suisse’s legacy businesses should free up capital and reduce costs for UBS, much of these gains could be absorbed by stricter regulatory demands,” Johann Scholtz, senior equity analyst at Morningstar, said in a note preceding the FINMA announcement. 

“Such measures may place UBS’s capital requirements well above those faced by rivals in the United States, putting pressure on returns and reducing prospects for narrowing its long-term valuation gap. Even its long-standing premium rating relative to the European banking sector has recently evaporated.”

The prospect of stringent Swiss capital rules and UBS’ extensive U.S. presence through its core global wealth management division comes as White House trade tariffs already weigh on the bank’s fortunes. In a dramatic twist, the bank lost its crown as continental Europe’s most valuable lender by market capitalization to Spanish giant Santander in mid-April.

Continue Reading

Finance

TSLA, CRCL, AVGO, LULU and more

Published

on

Continue Reading

Trending