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Hedge funds performed better under Democratic presidents than Republican ones, history shows

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Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. 

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There’s been a rush of enthusiasm on Wall Street regarding Donald Trump’s election win, but hedge funds actually generate more alpha when the White House is occupied by a Democrat president than a Republican one, according to HFR, collating data going back to 1991.

When compared with the S&P 500, the industry underperformed regardless of who was president. But during Democratic administrations, the gap was about 183 basis points, with hedge funds delivering average, annualized returns of 10.16%, compared to 11.99% from the S&P 500. The underperformance gap during Republican administrations was 331 basis points. (1 basis point equals 0.01%.)

When compared with the a bond index, HFR found that hedge funds under both parties outperformed – with stronger alpha when a Democrat was in the White House.

The total net asset flows were higher under Republican administrations (about $450 billion) than Democratic ones (about $400 billion), even though since 1991, Democrats served six more years in the highest office than Republicans.

Surprisingly, the way that hedge fund participants donate in elections was a bit more tilted toward one party. According to a recent report by Open Secrets, in the 2024 election cycle, individuals in the industry donated $31 million to Democratic candidates, while almost half that amount — $16 million — went to Republican candidates.

Of course the takeaway here is that hedge fund returns are far more correlated with positioning relative to various asset-class performances than particular policies by the administration. So, it’s hard to make any predictions about what the next four years entails for the industry.

At Wednesday’s 14th annual Delivering Alpha event, we should get a sense as to how money managers may be reconfiguring their portfolios.

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U.S.-China agree on framework to implement Geneva trade consensus

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U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent speaks with the media as he departs to return to the U.S., while trade talks between the U.S. and China continue, in London, Britain, June 10, 2025.

Toby Melville | Reuters

The U.S. and China have reached consensus on trade, representatives from both sides said following a second day of high-level talks in London, according to an NBC transcript.

“We have reached a framework to implement the Geneva consensus and the call between the two presidents,” U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said.

That echoed comments from the Chinese side, shared via a translator.

Lutnick said he and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will head back to Washington, D.C., to “make sure President Trump approves” the framework. If Xi also approves it, then “we will implement the framework,” Lutnick said.

Earlier, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters he was headed back to the U.S. in order to testify before Congress on Wednesday.

This is breaking news. Please check back for updates.

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Gundlach says to buy international stocks on dollar’s ‘secular decline’

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Jeffrey Gundlach speaking at the 2019 Sohn Conference in New York on May 6, 2019.

Adam Jeffery | CNBC

DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach said Tuesday that international stocks will continue to outshine U.S. equities on the back of what he believes to be the dollar’s secular downtrend.

“I think the trade is to not own U.S. stocks, but to own stocks in the rest of the world. It’s certainly working,” Gundlach said in an investor webcast. “The dollar is now in what I think is the beginning of [a] secular decline.”

Gundlach, whose firm managed about $95 billion at the end of 2024, said dollar-based investors who buy foreign stocks could enjoy “a double barreled wind” if the greenback declines against foreign currencies and international equities outperform.

The dollar has weakened in 2025 as Trump’s aggressive trade policies dented sentiment toward U.S. assets and triggered a reevaluation of the greenback’s dominant role in global commerce. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index is down about 8% this year.

“I think it’s perfectly sensible to invest in a few emerging market countries, and I would still rather choose India as the long term hold there,” Gundlach said. “But there’s nothing wrong with certain Southeast Asian countries, or perhaps even Mexico and Latin America.”

The widely-followed investor noted that foreigners invested in the United States could also be holding back committing additional capital due to heightened geopolitical tensions, and that could create another tailwind for international markets.

“If that’s reversing, then there’s a lot of selling that can happen. And this is one of the reasons that I advocate ex U.S. stocks versus U.S. stocks,” he said.

The investor has been negative on the U.S. markets and economy for some time, saying a number of recession indicators are starting to “blink red.”

Gundlach predicted that the Federal Reserve will stay put on interest rates at its policy meeting next week even as current inflation is “quite low.”

He estimated that inflation is likely to end 2025 at roughly 3%, although he acknowledged the difficulty in predicting future price pressures due to the lack of clarity in President Donald Trump’s tariff policy.

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BlackRock’s smallest deal of 2024 may end up being its most consequential

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