Brad Garlinghouse, CEO of Ripple, speaks at the 2022 Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills, California, U.S., May 4, 2022.
Mike Blake | Reuters
The CEO of blockchain startup Ripple sees the combined market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market topping $5 trillion this year.
Ripple’s Brad Garlinghouse told CNBC that he expects the entire value of the crypto market to double, citing macro factors including the arrival of the first U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETFs), as well as the upcoming so-called bitcoin “halving.”
“I’ve been around this industry for a long time, and I’ve seen these trends come and go,” Garlinghouse told CNBC. “I’m very optimistic. I think the macro trends, the big picture things like the ETFs, they’re driving for the first time real institutional money.”
“You’re seeing that drives demand, and at the same time demand is increasing, supply is decreasing,” Garlinghouse said. “That doesn’t take an economics major to tell you what happens when supply contracts and demand expands.”
The first U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs were approved on Jan. 10 by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. They trade on U.S. stock exchanges and allow institutions and retail investors to gain exposure to bitcoin without directly owning the underlying asset.
The bitcoin halving is a technical event that takes place roughly every four years in bitcoin’s history. It halves the total mining reward to bitcoin miners, which are volunteers on the bitcoin network that use high-powered computers to verify transactions and mint new tokens.
The last such event took place in 2020, and the next one is slated to happen later this month.
“The overall market cap of the crypto industry … is easily predicted to to double by the end of this year … [as it’s] impacted by all of these macro factors,” Garlinghouse said.
The total crypto market capitalization was roughly $2.6 trillion as of April 4. If the market were to double, that would imply a new total crypto market cap of $5.2 trillion.
Bitcoin has risen more than 140% in the last 12 months.
It hit a record high above $73,000 on March 13, according to CoinGecko data. It has since fallen well below the $70,000 level, however.
The world’s digital currency has been the main token driving gains for the broader market.
Bitcoin accounts for about 49% of the entire crypto market, with a market capitalization of $1.3 trillion as of April 1.
Check out the companies making headlines in midday trading: American Airlines — Shares slipped less than 1%, recovering from earlier losses, after the airline temporarily grounded all of its flights due to a technical issue. Broadcom — The semi stock added 2%, extending its December rally. Shares have surged more than 46% this month, propelling its 2024 gain above 112%. Big banks — Shares of some big bank stocks rose more than 1% amid news that a group of banks and business groups are suing the Federal Reserve over the annual stress tests, saying it “produces vacillating and unexplained requirements and restrictions on bank capital.” Citigroup , JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs shares gained more than 1% each. Arcadium Lithium — Shares rose more than 4% after the company announced its shareholders have approved the $6.7 billion sale to Rio Tinto . The deal is expected to close in mid-2025. International Seaways — The energy transportation provider surged 8% after an announcement that the company would be added to the S & P SmallCap 600 index, effective Dec. 30. The company will replace Consolidated Communications , which is soon to be acquired. Crypto stocks — Shares of stocks tied to the price of bitcoin rose as the cryptocurrency gave back recent losses amid a climb in tech names broadly. Crypto services provider Coinbase gained almost 3% and bitcoin proxy MicroStrategy gained more than 5%. Miners Riot Platforms and IREN gained 6% and 4%, respectively. U.S. Steel — The steel producer’s stock hovered near the flatline amid news that President Joe Biden will decide on the fate of its proposed acquisition by Japan’s Nippon Steel after a government panel failed to reach a decision . Apple — Apple shares gained 0.9% to notch a new all-time high. The stock has rallied nearly 34% year to date. — CNBC’s Sean Conlon, Lisa Han, Tanaya Macheel and Alex Harring contributed reporting.
A general view of the Federal Reserve Building in Washington, United States.
Samuel Corum | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images
The biggest banks are planning to sue the Federal Reserve over the annual bank stress tests, according to a person familiar with the matter. A lawsuit is expected this week and could come as soon as Tuesday morning, the person said.
The Fed’s stress test is an annual ritual that forces banks to maintain adequate cushions for bad loans and dictates the size of share repurchases and dividends.
After the market close on Monday, the Federal Reserve announced in a statement that it is looking to make changes to the bank stress tests and will be seeking public comment on what it calls “significant changes to improve the transparency of its bank stress tests and to reduce the volatility of resulting capital buffer requirements.”
The Fed said it made the determination to change the tests because of “the evolving legal landscape,” pointing to changes in administrative laws in recent years. It didn’t outline any specific changes to the framework of the annual stress tests.
While the big banks will likely view the changes as a win, it may be too little too late.
Also, the changes may not go far enough to satisfy the banks’ concerns about onerous capital requirements. “These proposed changes are not designed to materially affect overall capital requirements, according to the Fed.
The CEO of BPI (Bank Policy Institute), Greg Baer, which represents big banks like JPMorgan, Citigroup and Goldman Sachs, welcomed the Fed announcement, saying in a statement “The Board’s announcement today is a first step towards transparency and accountability.”
However, Baer also hinted at further action: “We are reviewing it closely and considering additional options to ensure timely reforms that are both good law and good policy.”
Groups like the BPI and the American Bankers Association have raised concerns about the stress test process in the past, claiming that it is opaque, and has resulted in higher capital rules that hurt bank lending and economic growth.
In July, the groups accused the Fed of being in violation of the Administrative Procedure Act, because it didn’t seek public comment on its stress scenarios and kept supervisory models secret.