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China set to report retail sales and industrial production data for October

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Pictured here is a Shanghai development under construction on Nov. 4, 2024.

Cfoto | Future Publishing | Getty Images

BEIJING — China’s National Bureau of Statistics is scheduled Friday to release retail sales, industrial production and fixed-asset investment data for October.

Retail sales are expected to have picked up to 3.8% year-on-year growth, according to analysts polled by Reuters, after rising by 3.2% in September.

Industrial production was forecast to have risen by 5.6%, the poll showed, up from 5.4% the prior month.

Fixed-asset investment, reported on a year-to-date basis, was anticipated to post 3.5% growth from a year ago, up from the 3.4% pace in September, according to the poll.

Chinese authorities have ramped up stimulus announcements since late September, fueling a stock rally. The central bank has cut interest rates and extended existing real estate support.

On the fiscal front, the Ministry of Finance last week announced a five-year 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) program to address local government debt problems, and hinted more fiscal support could come next year.

China needs to be more 'heavy-handed' with real estate, risks remain high: Goldman Sachs

Manufacturing surveys indicated a pickup in activity last month, while exports surged at their fastest pace in more than a year.

Imports, however, fell as domestic demand remained soft. The core consumer price index that strips out more volatile food and energy prices rose by 0.2% in October from a year ago, modestly better than the 0.1% increase seen in September.

Beyond a trade-in program to encourage car and home appliance sales, Beijing’s stimulus measures have not targeted consumers directly.

China’s Golden Week holiday in early October affirmed a trend in more cautious consumer spending, but several consultants said that sales during the Singles Day shopping festival, which recently ended, had beat low expectations.

The country’s gross domestic product in the first three quarters of the year grew by 4.8%. The country has set a target of around 5% growth for the year.

This is a developing story. Please check back later for updates.

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American Express cardholders still spending despite Trump tariffs

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American Express‘s affluent cardmembers are showing few signs of curbing their spending, and younger customers drove growth in first-quarter transaction volumes, Chief Financial Officer Christophe Le Caillec told CNBC.

Billed business on AmEx cards rose 6% in the period, or 7% when adjusted for the impact of leap year, the company reported Thursday, which shows that the bump in spending late last year continued into 2025, according to Le Caillec.

Those trends have continued into April, the CFO said, despite sharp declines in stocks this month amid concerns that President Donald Trump’s tariff policies will cause a recession.

The dynamic, which helped AmEx top expectations for first-quarter profit, shows that the company’s wealthier customer base may help to insulate it from concerns about tariffs and stubborn inflation. On the other end of the credit spectrum, Synchrony Financial, which offers store cards for dozens of popular retailers, has warned of a spending slowdown.

“There’s a lot of stability and strength, despite the news and the environment,” Le Caillec said.

Growth at AmEx came from younger cardholders, with millennial and Gen Z members spending 14% more in the quarter. Gen X and Baby Boomer cardholders showed more caution, registering 5% and 1% increases, respectively.

Le Caillec said it’s difficult to discern whether cardmembers were pulling forward purchases because of the looming tariffs, creating an artificial boost to purchase volumes, as JPMorgan executives said last week. But some small businesses may be doing so to build inventory because of concerns about the duties increasing costs, he added.

Airline slump

One category in particular gave Le Caillec confidence that the spending trends may be durable.

“Restaurant spend is up 8%,” the CFO said. “This is the ultimate discretionary expense, it’s not something you can bring forward, and so it’s really a good indicator of the strength of our cardmember base and the confidence they have.”

If there was a weak area besides the spending slowdown from older Americans, it was in airline transactions, according to the company’s earnings presentation. The category grew just 3%, or 4% when adjusted for leap year, after climbing 13% in the fourth quarter.

But while airlines, retailers and other corporations have pulled their earnings guidance on tariff uncertainty, AmEx was holding firm.

It maintained its guidance for revenue growth of 8% to 10% and earnings of $15 to $15.50 per share this year, Le Caillec said.

In the company’s presentation, though, it added a new caveat to its guidance: “Subject to the Macroeconomic Environment.”

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