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A recession could upend retirement plans. Taking these steps can help

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With the Federal Reserve poised to start cutting interest rates, experts are divided on what’s ahead for the U.S. economy.

While some worry the economy could be in for a broad decline, or recession, others hope the central bank can effectively avoid a downturn and execute a “soft landing.”

For people who are in or near retirement, the stakes are particularly high when it comes to what happens next.

A recession or sudden market decline could upend the size of their retirement nest egg, planned retirement date or both.

Everyone approaching retirement should be asking themselves, “What’s my Plan B?” said Anne Lester, author of “Your Best Financial Life” and former head of retirement solutions at JPMorgan.

Key debate for fourth quarter is if 'sogginess' of economic growth leads to a recession: strategist

“Now is a great time to build some scenarios and start asking yourself that question, ‘What would I do?'” Lester said. “If you have a plan, you’re much less likely to panic and do something unwise.”

Research shows people who are approaching retirement are much more likely to panic when a downturn sets in, according to David Blanchett, managing director and head of retirement research at PGIM DC Solutions.

“Being proactive now is especially viable for older Americans for whom retirement is all of a sudden becoming very real,” Blanchett said.

To test your current retirement plan, asking some questions can help.

Is my portfolio allocated where it should be?

For retirees and near-retirees, a market decline can prompt what’s known as sequence of returns risk — where poor investment returns negatively impact how long retirement savings may last.

“If you are near the end of your career or just starting retirement and a recession hits, then you have much less time than you’d like for your portfolio to recover,” said Emerson Sprick, associate director of the Bipartisan Policy Center’s economic policy program.

A market selloff can happen without the economy going into a recession, Lester said. And the economy can go into a recession without meaningful stock market declines.

Consequently, it helps to always be prepared for the markets — and your retirement nest egg — to take an unexpected big hit.  

The good news is that it’s rare for the markets to have a big correction — defined as a decline of 10% or more — and keep sinking, Lester said.

“It is very unlikely that we rerun 1929 again, where you have five or seven years of very bad returns in a row,” Lester said.

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Certain rules of thumb aim to help gauge how much you should have allocated to equities, such as subtracting your age from 120. (For example, if you’re 50 years old, you should have 70% of your portfolio in equities. If you’re 70, equities should comprise only 50% of investments.)

Yet it’s important to keep in mind that everyone’s financial situation — and ability to take risk — is different, based on their mix of assets, Blanchett said.

Now can be a great time to get ahead of certain risks.

“If you know, for example, if the portfolio goes down by 10% you’re going to move to cash, move to cash now before it’s going to do that,” Blanchett said.

Government bonds also provide opportunities to earn returns that weren’t available two or three years ago, he noted.

To avoid having to sell investments and lock in losses when the market declines, it helps to have a cash buffer you can turn to. For retirees and near retirees, having two to three years of spending in cash can be a solid approach, Lester said.

What are my sources of income?

Having income that’s guaranteed can help reduce the impact market fluctuations have on your portfolio.

For most retirees, Social Security provides steady monthly checks.

But if you claim at the earliest possible age — 62 — your retirement benefits will be permanently reduced. By waiting until full retirement age — typically 66 to 67, depending on date of birth — you will receive 100% of the benefits you’ve earned. And if you wait even longer — up to age 70 — you stand to increase your benefits by about 8% per year.

“Now more than ever, delaying claiming Social Security is just a spectacular thing to start with,” Blanchett said.

Individuals may also want to consider investing in an annuity, insurance products that also provide monthly income streams in exchange for an upfront lump sum payment paid to an insurance company.

“The higher interest rates are, the better the payment stream is off an annuity,” said Lester, who also serves as an education fellow for the Alliance for Lifetime Income, a nonprofit formed to educate consumers on annuities.

“Rates are likely to drop in the future, and lower interest rates are going to likely result in lower payouts for annuity,” Blanchett said. “So addressing this now vs. later will likely lead to more income, a higher return.”

Certain products like multi-year guaranteed annuities and other fixed annuities can provide guaranteed returns in a tax-advantaged way for older Americans, he said.

Before purchasing an annuity, consumers should do their due diligence as to whether a product fits their financial circumstances. Consulting a reputable licensed financial professional can help.

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These 5 actions can help protect your personal and financial data

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Elon Musk speaks during the first cabinet meeting hosted by U.S. President Donald Trump, at the White House in Washington, DC, U.S., February 26, 2025.

Brian Snyder | Reuters

Recent actions by the Department of Government Efficiency to access internal computer systems and databases at many federal government agencies, including the Treasury Department, Internal Revenue Service, and Social Security Administration, have sparked debates about privacy and data security. 

“There’s always inherent risk in having sensitive information at a government agency because they’re ultimately responsible for protecting it and moderating who actually has access to it,” said Steve Grobman, chief technology officer at the cybersecurity firm McAfee.

DOGE is not a federal agency, and billionaire Elon Musk, whom President Donald Trump brought on board to implement the DOGE initiative, is not a federal official. Yet, since its establishment, DOGE has sought access to software and IT systems at federal government agencies to “maximize efficiency” and cut spending.

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Critics say there has been a lack of transparency about exactly how personal or financial information is being used and whether it is being kept secure — although Musk has said DOGE’s actions are “maximally transparent.” Meanwhile, several lawsuits have been filed to block DOGE’s access to sensitive personal data.

Cybersecurity experts say that protecting your personal and financial information should be part of a strategy to take care of your overall financial well-being, regardless of the political climate.

“For people who are concerned about the security of their data collected and stored by the federal government, our advice is the same as any other time or circumstance,” James  L. Lee, president of the non-profit Identity Theft Resource Center, said in an emailed statement. 

“There are actions you can and should take to protect your personal information, no matter what organization is collecting and storing it — from the corner market to local doctors to government agencies at all levels. Personal information is always at risk of identity misuse,” Lee said.

Here are five actions cybersecurity experts recommend you take now:

1. Freeze your credit

Ingwervanille | Moment | Getty Images

Freezing your credit will block access to your credit report and prevent anyone from opening new accounts in your name. Then, if someone gets your Social Security number or other private information, they can’t take out a loan or open a credit card.

You must contact all of the three major credit reporting agencies — Equifax, Experian, and TransUnion — to freeze access to your credit with each. The process only takes a few minutes, and it’s free. Just make sure to temporarily unfreeze your credit before you apply for a new credit card, loan, or mortgage.

2. Review your credit reports

How to do a financial reset

3. Download your Social Security statement

If you don’t have one already, create a “My Social Security” account on the Social Security Administration’s website to check your earnings records, get estimates of your monthly retirement benefits and manage current benefits. Review your statement, download a copy and contact the Social Security Administration if there are any mistakes. Establish your account now to ensure no one else does so in your name. 

“Keeping a local backup of your Social Security statement, credit history [and] student loan payments is always a good idea, and doubly so as the future is unclear at so many of the administering agencies,” Emory Roane, associate director of policy at the non-profit Privacy Rights Clearinghouse, said in an emailed statement.

4. Use a secure ID number when filing your tax return

The IRS allows consumers to proactively request an identity protection PIN (IP PIN) — a unique six-digit number — to use when filing your tax return. The IP PIN verifies your identity when you file an electronic or paper return. It prevents someone else from using your Social Security number to file a fake return, possibly stealing your refund. 

McAfee’s Grobman recommends that consumers make sure that “sensitive data that they have control of goes to the minimal number of places possible.” 

“Setting up multi-factor authentication, the various secure ID and PIN capabilities that the IRS offers, is absolutely critical to helping ensure that only you or your designated tax preparer is accessing that sensitive information on government systems,” he said.

5. Go beyond changing your password

Create a “passkey” for any online account that offers one for enhanced security. A passkey is a string of encrypted data that you can access with a face scan, fingerprint, or PIN. Use multi-factor authentication — like a password plus a code — if you can’t add a passkey. Don’t reuse passwords.

Instead, Lee, of the Identity Theft Resource Center, recommends you “use a password manager to create and remember a different password for every account. Google and Apple offer free password manager apps, and password managers are included in Safari, Chrome, Edge and other major web browsers.”

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Social Security plans to cut about 7,000 workers. That may affect benefits

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The Social Security Administration office in Brownsville, Texas.

Robert Daemmrich Photography Inc | Corbis Historical | Getty Images

The Social Security Administration plans to shed 7,000 employees as the Trump administration looks for ways to cut federal spending.

The agency on Friday confirmed the figure — which will bring its total staff down to 50,000 from 57,000.

Previous reports that the Social Security Administration planned for a 50% reduction to its headcount are “false,” the agency said.

Nevertheless, the aim of 7,000 job cuts has prompted concerns about the agency’s ability to continue to provide services, particularly benefit payments, to tens of millions of older Americans when its staff is already at a 50-year low.

“It’s going to extend the amount of time that it takes for them to have their claim processed,” said Greg Senden, a paralegal analyst who has worked at the Social Security Administration for 27 years.

“It’s going to extend the amount of time that they have to wait to get benefits,” said Senden, who also helps the American Federation of Government Employees oversee Social Security employees in six central states.

Officials at the White House and the Social Security Administration were not available for comment at press time.

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The Social Security Administration on Friday said it anticipates “much of” the staff reductions needed to reach its target will come from resignations, retirement and offers for Voluntary Separation Incentive Payments, or VSIP. 

More reductions could come from “reduction-in-force actions that could include abolishment of organizations and positions” or reassignments to other positions, the agency said. Federal agencies must submit their reduction-in-force plans by March 13 to the Office of Personnel Management for approval.

Cuts may affect benefit payments, experts say

Former Social Security Administration Commissioner Martin O’Malley last week told CNBC.com that the continuity of benefit payments could be at risk for the first time in the program’s history.

“Ultimately, you’re going to see the system collapse and an interruption of benefits,” O’Malley said. “I believe you will see that within the next 30 to 90 days.”

Other experts say the changes could affect benefits, though it remains to be seen exactly how.

“It’s unclear to me whether the staff cuts are more likely to result in an interruption of benefits, or an increase in improper payments,” said Charles Blahous, senior research strategist at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University and a former public trustee for Social Security and Medicare.

Improper payments happen when the agency either overpays or underpays benefits due to inaccurate information.

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With fewer staff, the Social Security Administration will have to choose between making sure all claims are processed, which may lead to more improper payments, or avoiding those errors, which could lead to processing delays, Blahous said.

Disability benefits, which require more agency staff attention both to process initial claims and to continue to verify beneficiaries are eligible, may be more susceptible to errors compared to retirement benefits, he added.

Cuts may have minimal impact on trust funds

Under the Trump administration, Social Security also plans to consolidate its geographic footprint to four regions down from 10 regional offices, the agency said on Friday.

Ultimately, it remains to be seen how much savings the overall reforms will generate.

The Social Security Administration’s funding for administrative costs comes out of its trust funds, which are also used to pay benefits. Based on current projections, the trust funds will be depleted in the next decade and Social Security will not be able to pay full benefits at that time, unless Congress acts sooner.

The efforts to cut costs at the Social Security Administration would likely only help the trust fund solvency “in some miniscule way,” said Andrew Biggs, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and former principal deputy commissioner of the Social Security Administration.

What President Donald Trump is likely looking to do broadly is reset the baseline on government spending and employment, he said.

“I’m not disagreeing with the idea that the agency could be more efficient,” Biggs said. “I just wonder whether you can come up with that by cutting the positions first and figuring out how to have the efficiencies later.”

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Student loan borrowers pursuing PSLF are ‘panicking.’ Here’s what to know

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Students walk through the University of Texas at Austin on February 22, 2024 in Austin, Texas. 

Brandon Bell | Getty Images

As the Trump administration overhauls the student loan system, many borrowers pursuing the Public Service Loan Forgiveness program are worried about its future.

“There’s a lot of panicking by PSLF borrowers due to the uncertainty,” said higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz.

PSLF, which President George W. Bush signed into law in 2007, allows certain not-for-profit and government employees to have their federal student loans canceled after 10 years of payments.

Here’s what borrowers in the program need to know about recent changes affecting the program.

IDR repayment plan applications down

Some borrowers’ PSLF progress has stalled

While the legal challenges against SAVE were playing out, the Biden administration paused the payments for enrollees through a forbearance, as well as the accrual of any interest.

Unlike the payment pause during the pandemic, borrowers in this forbearance aren’t getting credit toward their required 120 payments for loan forgiveness under PSLF. It’s unclear when the forbearance will end.

But while the applications for other IDR plans remain unavailable, borrowers in SAVE are stuck on their timeline toward loan forgiveness, Kantrowitz said. If you were on an IDR plan other than SAVE, you will continue to get credit during this period if you’re making payments and working in eligible employment.

The Education Department is now tweaking the applications to make sure all their repayment plans comply with the new court order, an agency spokesperson told CNBC last week.

It will likely be months before the Department has reworked all the applications and made them available again, Kantrowitz said.

Those who switch to the Standard plan will continue to get PSLF credit, but the payments are often too high for those working in the public sector or for a nonprofit to afford, experts said.

‘Buy back’ opportunity can help

While it’s frustrating not to be inching toward loan forgiveness for the time being, an option down the road may help, said Betsy Mayotte, president of The Institute of Student Loan Advisors, a nonprofit.

The Education Department’s Buyback opportunity lets people pay for certain months that didn’t count, if doing so brings them up to 120 qualifying payments.

For example, time spent in forbearances or deferments that suspended your progress can essentially be cashed in for qualifying payments.

The extra payment must total at least as much as what you have paid monthly under an IDR plan, according to Studentaid.gov.

Borrowers who’ve now been pursuing PSLF for 10 years or more should put in their buyback request sooner than later, Kantrowitz said.

“The benefit is likely to be eliminated by the Trump administration,” he said.

Keep records

Borrowers have already long complained of inaccurate payment counts under the PSLF program. While the student loan repayment options are tweaked, people could see more errors, Kantrowitz said.

“A borrower’s payment history and other student loan details are more likely to get corrupted during a transition,” he said.

As a result, he said, those pursuing PSLF should print out a copy of their payment history on StudentAid.gov.

“It would also be a good idea to create a spreadsheet showing all of the qualifying payments so they have their own count,” Kantrowitz said.

With the PSLF help tool, borrowers can search for a list of qualifying employers and access the employer certification form. Try to fill out this form at least once a year, Kantrowitz added.

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