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A recession could upend retirement plans. Taking these steps can help

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With the Federal Reserve poised to start cutting interest rates, experts are divided on what’s ahead for the U.S. economy.

While some worry the economy could be in for a broad decline, or recession, others hope the central bank can effectively avoid a downturn and execute a “soft landing.”

For people who are in or near retirement, the stakes are particularly high when it comes to what happens next.

A recession or sudden market decline could upend the size of their retirement nest egg, planned retirement date or both.

Everyone approaching retirement should be asking themselves, “What’s my Plan B?” said Anne Lester, author of “Your Best Financial Life” and former head of retirement solutions at JPMorgan.

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“Now is a great time to build some scenarios and start asking yourself that question, ‘What would I do?'” Lester said. “If you have a plan, you’re much less likely to panic and do something unwise.”

Research shows people who are approaching retirement are much more likely to panic when a downturn sets in, according to David Blanchett, managing director and head of retirement research at PGIM DC Solutions.

“Being proactive now is especially viable for older Americans for whom retirement is all of a sudden becoming very real,” Blanchett said.

To test your current retirement plan, asking some questions can help.

Is my portfolio allocated where it should be?

For retirees and near-retirees, a market decline can prompt what’s known as sequence of returns risk — where poor investment returns negatively impact how long retirement savings may last.

“If you are near the end of your career or just starting retirement and a recession hits, then you have much less time than you’d like for your portfolio to recover,” said Emerson Sprick, associate director of the Bipartisan Policy Center’s economic policy program.

A market selloff can happen without the economy going into a recession, Lester said. And the economy can go into a recession without meaningful stock market declines.

Consequently, it helps to always be prepared for the markets — and your retirement nest egg — to take an unexpected big hit.  

The good news is that it’s rare for the markets to have a big correction — defined as a decline of 10% or more — and keep sinking, Lester said.

“It is very unlikely that we rerun 1929 again, where you have five or seven years of very bad returns in a row,” Lester said.

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Certain rules of thumb aim to help gauge how much you should have allocated to equities, such as subtracting your age from 120. (For example, if you’re 50 years old, you should have 70% of your portfolio in equities. If you’re 70, equities should comprise only 50% of investments.)

Yet it’s important to keep in mind that everyone’s financial situation — and ability to take risk — is different, based on their mix of assets, Blanchett said.

Now can be a great time to get ahead of certain risks.

“If you know, for example, if the portfolio goes down by 10% you’re going to move to cash, move to cash now before it’s going to do that,” Blanchett said.

Government bonds also provide opportunities to earn returns that weren’t available two or three years ago, he noted.

To avoid having to sell investments and lock in losses when the market declines, it helps to have a cash buffer you can turn to. For retirees and near retirees, having two to three years of spending in cash can be a solid approach, Lester said.

What are my sources of income?

Having income that’s guaranteed can help reduce the impact market fluctuations have on your portfolio.

For most retirees, Social Security provides steady monthly checks.

But if you claim at the earliest possible age — 62 — your retirement benefits will be permanently reduced. By waiting until full retirement age — typically 66 to 67, depending on date of birth — you will receive 100% of the benefits you’ve earned. And if you wait even longer — up to age 70 — you stand to increase your benefits by about 8% per year.

“Now more than ever, delaying claiming Social Security is just a spectacular thing to start with,” Blanchett said.

Individuals may also want to consider investing in an annuity, insurance products that also provide monthly income streams in exchange for an upfront lump sum payment paid to an insurance company.

“The higher interest rates are, the better the payment stream is off an annuity,” said Lester, who also serves as an education fellow for the Alliance for Lifetime Income, a nonprofit formed to educate consumers on annuities.

“Rates are likely to drop in the future, and lower interest rates are going to likely result in lower payouts for annuity,” Blanchett said. “So addressing this now vs. later will likely lead to more income, a higher return.”

Certain products like multi-year guaranteed annuities and other fixed annuities can provide guaranteed returns in a tax-advantaged way for older Americans, he said.

Before purchasing an annuity, consumers should do their due diligence as to whether a product fits their financial circumstances. Consulting a reputable licensed financial professional can help.

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Personal Finance

Social Security overpayment withholding rate drops to 50% for some

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Just weeks after announcing a 100% withholding rate on new overpayments of benefits, the Social Security has slashed the rate down to 50% for certain beneficiaries.

Yet that clawback on monthly benefit checks may still cause a financial burden for individuals who are affected, experts say.

For new overpayment notices sent on or after April 25, the 50% default withholding rate will apply to so-called Title II benefits, which include retirement, survivors and disability insurance, according to an emergency message released by the Social Security Administration.

The withholding rate for Supplemental Security Income benefits remains 10%.

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“Obviously, it’s better not to lose all of your income,” said Kate Lang, director of federal income security at Justice in Aging, a national organization focused on fighting senior poverty.

“But if you’re relying on your benefits to pay your rent or your mortgage and buy food, losing half of that income is going to be devastating and can still result in people becoming homeless,” Lang said.

How beneficiaries end up owing Social Security

Beneficiaries may owe the Social Security Administration money due to overpayments — when their monthly benefit checks are more than what they are owed. The erroneous payments can happen for a variety of reasons, such as if a beneficiary fails to report a change in their circumstances to the agency or if the agency does not process information promptly or enters errors in its data.

When the Social Security Administration determines a beneficiary has been overpaid, a notice is sent to request a full and immediate refund, according to the agency.

Beneficiaries typically have 90 days to request a lower rate of withholding, a reconsideration or waiver of recovery. If they do not make such a request within that 90-day window, the agency will withhold up to 50% of their benefits until the sum of the amount that was overpaid is fully recovered, according to the agency’s update.

What you need to know about Social Security

The Social Security Administration had previously announced that it would increase the default withholding rate for overpayments to 100%. Under President Joe Biden’s administration, the default withholding rate had been dropped to 10% of a beneficiary’s monthly benefit or $10 — whichever was greater. Generally, the rate beneficiaries are subject to is based on the terms at the time they were notified.

“In the last 100 days, we’ve gone from as low as 10 [percent] to 100 and now to 50,” said Richard Fiesta, executive director of the Alliance for Retired Americans.

The 100% withholding rate was “ridiculously draconian and cruel,” Fiesta said. The Social Security Administration had said the change to that full recovery rate would generate about $7 billion in program savings in the next decade, based on estimates from the chief actuary.

Yet even with the default withholding rate cut in half, beneficiaries may still struggle financially.

“Losing 50% [of benefits] for a lot of people could put them into immediate economic hardship,” Fiesta said.

In most cases, it wasn’t the beneficiary’s fault that they were overpaid, Fiesta said. “They shouldn’t be put in a worse situation because of something they never caused in the first place,” he said.

‘A lot of discretion’ in negotiating repayment terms

While beneficiaries do have the ability to negotiate the payments, there is no guarantee they will be successful and the outcomes may vary, according to Lang.

“There are thousands of employees that individual beneficiaries are going to be dealing with to ask for a waiver or ask to negotiate a different repayment rate,” Lang said. “And those employees have a lot of discretion in what they decide.”

Beneficiaries who are dealing with overpayment issues also face long wait times to make an appointment to visit a Social Security Administration office, which can interfere with their ability to exercise the options available to them, she said.

The Social Security Administration did not respond to CNBC’s request for comment.

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Student loan collections restart for borrowers in default

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A person walks on campus at Muhlenberg College in Allentown, Pennsylvania, U.S. March 26, 2025. 

Hannah Beier | Reuters

Borrowers face plan changes, long waits for help

Collection activity on federal student loans has mostly been paused for half a decade. During that period, there have been sweeping changes and disruptions to the lending system.

Millions of borrowers who signed up for the Biden administration’s new repayment plan, known as SAVE, were caught in limbo after GOP-led lawsuits managed to get the plan blocked in the summer of last year. Many of those borrowers will now have to switch out of a Biden-era payment pause and into another repayment plan that will spike their monthly bill.

In recent months, the Trump administration has eliminated the forgiveness provision from some student loan repayment plans.

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It also terminated staff at the Education Department, including many of the people who helped assist borrowers. Now some student loan borrowers report waiting hours on the phone before being able to reach someone about their debt. (The Trump administration has told defaulted borrowers to contact the department for options on getting current.)

“The timing of the layoffs is unfortunate, given the need for borrowers to get help,” said higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz, who added that he’s heard from people stuck waiting on hold as long as eight hours to speak with someone at the department or their loan servicer.

Borrowers in default may see credit scores decline

Restarting collections while the federal student loan system is facing so much uncertainty “will further fan the flames of economic chaos for working families across this country,” said Mike Pierce, the executive director of the Student Borrower Protection Center.

In addition to garnished paychecks and benefits, the millions of borrowers who are already late on their payments may see their credit scores tank by as much as 129 points as the Education Department ramps up collection activity, VantageScore recently wrote.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve predicted in March that some people with a delinquency could see their scores fall by as much as 171 points. Credit scores typically range from 300 to 850, with around 670 and higher considered good.

Lower credit scores can lead to higher borrowing costs on consumer loans such as mortgages, car loans and credit cards.

“We’ve been seeing clients with delinquent accounts who reached out after noticing a drop in their credit scores,” said Carolina Rodriguez, director of the Education Debt Consumer Assistance Program in New York.

She said one client hasn’t made a payment on her student debt since last year because she can’t afford her $200 monthly bill.

“She’s making $45,000 and living in New York City,” Rodriguez said. “Every month, she’s in the red.”

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How students choose a college

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Is it best to go to college or dive straight into the working world?

Ethan Bianco, 17, waited right up until the May 1 deadline before deciding which college he would attend in the fall.

The senior at Kinder High School for the Performing and Visual Arts in Houston was accepted to several schools, and had whittled down his choices to Vanderbilt University and University of Texas at Austin. Ultimately, the cost was a significant factor in his final decision.

“UT is a much better award package,” he said. In-state tuition for the current academic year is $10,858 to $13,576 a year, which would be largely covered by Bianco’s financial aid offer.

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Vanderbilt, on the other hand, consistently ranks among the best private colleges for financial aid and promises to meet 100% of a family’s demonstrated need.

The school initially offered Bianco $35,000 in aid, he said. With that package, “it would be about $40,000 more for my family to attend Vanderbilt per year.”

However, he successfully appealed his award package and leveraged private scholarships to bring the price down further — and committed to Vanderbilt on National College Decision Day.

How cost plays into college choices

For most graduating high school seniors, the math works out differently. The rising cost of college has resulted in a higher percentage of students enrolling in public schools over private ones, according to Robert Franek, editor-in-chief of The Princeton Review.

“Currently, it is about 73% of the undergraduate population — but this year, with increasing uncertainties about financial aid and changing policies about student loans, it is very likely that number will go up,” Franek said.

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Soaring college costs and looming student debt balances have pushed this trend, and this year, there are added concerns about the economy and dwindling federal loan forgiveness options. As a result, this year’s crop of high school seniors is more likely to choose local and less-expensive public schools rather than private universities far from home, Franek said.

Price is now a bigger consideration among students and parents when choosing a college, other reports also show. Financial concerns govern decision-making for 8 in 10 families, according to one report by education lender Sallie Mae, outweighing even academics when choosing a school

“Choosing a school is a personal and individual decision,” said Chris Ebeling, head of student lending at Citizens Financial Group. Along with academics and extracurriculars, “equally important is the cost,” he said. “That needs to be weighed and considered carefully.”

Carlos Marin, 17, on National College Decision Day.

Courtesy of AT&T

On National College Decision Day, Carlos Marin, a senior at Milby High School, also in Houston, enrolled at the University of Houston-Downtown. Marin, 17, who could be the first person in his family to graduate from college, said he plans to live at home and commute to classes.

“The other schools I got into were farther away but the cost of room and board was really expensive,” Marin said.

College costs keep rising

College costs have risen significantly in recent decades, with tuition increasing 5.6% a year, on average, since 1983 — outpacing inflation and other household expenses, according to a recent report by J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

Deep cuts in state funding for higher education have also contributed to the soaring price tag and pushed more of the costs onto students. Families now shoulder 48% of college expenses, up from 38% a decade ago, J.P. Morgan Asset Management found, with scholarships, grants and loans helping to bridge the gap.

Nearly every year, students and their families have been borrowing more, which boosted total outstanding student debt to where it stands today, at more than $1.6 trillion.

A separate survey by The Princeton Review found that taking on too much debt is the No. 1 worry among all college-bound students.

Incoming Vanderbilt freshman Bianco qualified for a number of additional private scholarships and even received a free laptop from AT&T so that he could submit the Free Application for Federal Student Aid and fill out college applications. He said he is wary of taking out loans to make up for the difference.

“I believe that student loans can be beneficial but there’s also the assumption that you’ll be in debt for a very long time,” Bianco said. “It almost becomes a burden that is too much to bear.”

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