Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
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The stock market has been throwing a temper tantrum, fueled by fear of President Donald Trump’s tariff policy and the specter of an escalating global trade war.
Americans may wonder why trade policy has made stock investors so skittish.
At a high level, investors are nervous that a prolonged trade war poses significant risks for corporate profits and the U.S. economy, according to investment analysts.
That’s not a foregone conclusion, however. The Trump administration could strike trade deals and blunt the overall impact, for example, experts said.
“But if that doesn’t happen, the market may still be a long way from the bottom,” Thomas Mathews, head of Asia-Pacific markets at Capital Economics, wrote in a note on Monday.
The sell-off came after Trump announced a sweeping plan Wednesday to put a 10% baseline tariff on U.S. trading partners. He set significantly higher rates for nations including China and traditional allies like European Union members.
Their scope caught many investors off guard.
The announcement “was more significant than most expected, so we had a material sell-off” in the stock market, Chris Harvey, head of equity strategy at Wells Fargo Securities, wrote in an e-mail.
Retaliatory trade measures compound the problems, economists said.
China put a 34% tariff on U.S. products after Trump’s announcement of “reciprocal” tariffs last week, and vowed it would “fight to the end.” Canada put 25% tariffs on a range of U.S. goods, while the EU bloc is readying its own 25% retaliatory duties.
(The S&P 500 was up over 2% Tuesday morning on rising hopes for trade deals with China and South Korea.)
Retaliatory tariffs make U.S. goods sold abroad more expensive, hurting export-reliant businesses — perhaps leading to layoffs and lower consumer spending.
“We expect many — if not all — countries outside the U.S. to adopt retaliatory tariffs of their own,” the Wells Fargo Investment Institute wrote in a note Friday.
Wells Fargo expects “significantly lower” growth for the U.S. economy in 2025 due to “unexpectedly aggressive tariff increases.” It lowered its target for gross domestic product to 1% from 2.5% this year.
For now, the economy isn’t yet showing signs of dramatic weakening, said Joe Seydl, senior markets economist at J.P. Morgan Private Bank. If tariff policy proves to be long lasting rather than temporary, the shock would likely cause a “mild” U.S. recession, he said.
U.S. Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference following a meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) at the headquarters of the Federal Reserve on June 14, 2023 in Washington, DC.
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During Trump’s first term, there was level of stock market volatility the administration didn’t find tolerable, Seydl said. Now, there appears to be less concern about stock gyrations — which is perhaps the most important factor in the stock sell-off, he said.
“The capital markets (especially equities) are sending a signal to the Administration that all is not well and the probability of recession, job losses, and a negative wealth effect are all increasing,” wrote Harvey of Wells Fargo.
“The Administration has been somewhat dismissive of these signals, creating a negative feedback loop,” Harvey wrote.
Uncertainty around the framework, goals, potential duration and the White House’s economic tolerance regarding tariffs makes it difficult for investors to assess market risk, he added.
While tariff policy was a catalyst for the recent sell-off, it wasn’t necessarily the only factor that contributed to the slide, analysts said.
For one, stock valuations were already elevated heading into 2025, Seydl said.
The market was trading at 22 times forward earnings — a measure of stock valuations — which was well above the 16.5 average over 1990 to 2024 and 12.8 average over 1950 to 2024, he said.
“When you have those elevated valuations, the market will be more sensitive to bad news,” Seydl said.