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A recession could upend retirement plans. Taking these steps can help

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With the Federal Reserve poised to start cutting interest rates, experts are divided on what’s ahead for the U.S. economy.

While some worry the economy could be in for a broad decline, or recession, others hope the central bank can effectively avoid a downturn and execute a “soft landing.”

For people who are in or near retirement, the stakes are particularly high when it comes to what happens next.

A recession or sudden market decline could upend the size of their retirement nest egg, planned retirement date or both.

Everyone approaching retirement should be asking themselves, “What’s my Plan B?” said Anne Lester, author of “Your Best Financial Life” and former head of retirement solutions at JPMorgan.

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“Now is a great time to build some scenarios and start asking yourself that question, ‘What would I do?'” Lester said. “If you have a plan, you’re much less likely to panic and do something unwise.”

Research shows people who are approaching retirement are much more likely to panic when a downturn sets in, according to David Blanchett, managing director and head of retirement research at PGIM DC Solutions.

“Being proactive now is especially viable for older Americans for whom retirement is all of a sudden becoming very real,” Blanchett said.

To test your current retirement plan, asking some questions can help.

Is my portfolio allocated where it should be?

For retirees and near-retirees, a market decline can prompt what’s known as sequence of returns risk — where poor investment returns negatively impact how long retirement savings may last.

“If you are near the end of your career or just starting retirement and a recession hits, then you have much less time than you’d like for your portfolio to recover,” said Emerson Sprick, associate director of the Bipartisan Policy Center’s economic policy program.

A market selloff can happen without the economy going into a recession, Lester said. And the economy can go into a recession without meaningful stock market declines.

Consequently, it helps to always be prepared for the markets — and your retirement nest egg — to take an unexpected big hit.  

The good news is that it’s rare for the markets to have a big correction — defined as a decline of 10% or more — and keep sinking, Lester said.

“It is very unlikely that we rerun 1929 again, where you have five or seven years of very bad returns in a row,” Lester said.

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Certain rules of thumb aim to help gauge how much you should have allocated to equities, such as subtracting your age from 120. (For example, if you’re 50 years old, you should have 70% of your portfolio in equities. If you’re 70, equities should comprise only 50% of investments.)

Yet it’s important to keep in mind that everyone’s financial situation — and ability to take risk — is different, based on their mix of assets, Blanchett said.

Now can be a great time to get ahead of certain risks.

“If you know, for example, if the portfolio goes down by 10% you’re going to move to cash, move to cash now before it’s going to do that,” Blanchett said.

Government bonds also provide opportunities to earn returns that weren’t available two or three years ago, he noted.

To avoid having to sell investments and lock in losses when the market declines, it helps to have a cash buffer you can turn to. For retirees and near retirees, having two to three years of spending in cash can be a solid approach, Lester said.

What are my sources of income?

Having income that’s guaranteed can help reduce the impact market fluctuations have on your portfolio.

For most retirees, Social Security provides steady monthly checks.

But if you claim at the earliest possible age — 62 — your retirement benefits will be permanently reduced. By waiting until full retirement age — typically 66 to 67, depending on date of birth — you will receive 100% of the benefits you’ve earned. And if you wait even longer — up to age 70 — you stand to increase your benefits by about 8% per year.

“Now more than ever, delaying claiming Social Security is just a spectacular thing to start with,” Blanchett said.

Individuals may also want to consider investing in an annuity, insurance products that also provide monthly income streams in exchange for an upfront lump sum payment paid to an insurance company.

“The higher interest rates are, the better the payment stream is off an annuity,” said Lester, who also serves as an education fellow for the Alliance for Lifetime Income, a nonprofit formed to educate consumers on annuities.

“Rates are likely to drop in the future, and lower interest rates are going to likely result in lower payouts for annuity,” Blanchett said. “So addressing this now vs. later will likely lead to more income, a higher return.”

Certain products like multi-year guaranteed annuities and other fixed annuities can provide guaranteed returns in a tax-advantaged way for older Americans, he said.

Before purchasing an annuity, consumers should do their due diligence as to whether a product fits their financial circumstances. Consulting a reputable licensed financial professional can help.

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Personal Finance

Lenders pull incorrect amounts from student loan borrowers’ accounts

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Lenders often encourage federal student loan borrowers to enroll in automatic payments. It can seem like a good idea to do so: Borrowers don’t need to worry about missing a payment and often get a slightly lower interest rate in exchange.

However, the decision can backfire in a lending space plagued by consumer abuses, according to a new report by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

“Unfortunately, autopay errors were one of the most widespread, basic and consequential servicer errors we saw this year,” CFPB Student Loan Ombudsman Julia Barnard told CNBC. “These errors are incredibly costly and completely unacceptable.”

In some cases, borrowers had money pulled from their bank accounts despite never consenting to autopay, Barnard said. Other autopay users saw incorrect amounts taken or were charged multiple times in the same month.

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CNBC wrote last year about a woman who was supposed to have a $0 monthly student loan payment under the plan she was enrolled in, but was charged $2,074 one month. After that unexpected debit, she worried she wouldn’t be able to pay her mortgage.

In March, one borrower told the CFPB that their student loan servicer took $6,897 from their account when they only owed $1,048.

“Borrowers have told the CFPB that these errors have made it hard or impossible for them to cover basic needs like food, medical care and rent,” Barnard said.

What borrowers can do about autopay errors

Despite the issues some student loan borrowers experience, higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz recommends that people remain enrolled in the automatic payments.

After all, it’s one of the only ways to get an interest rate discount, he said. The savings is typically 0.25%.

In addition, he said, “they are less likely to be late with a payment.”

But some borrowers on a tight budget may prefer to forgo those benefits to make sure they’re not overcharged, experts said.

There are steps you can take to protect yourself from incorrect billing, Kantrowitz said.

You can set up an alert with your bank and get notified whenever a debit occurs over a certain amount. If you set that amount a little under what your student loan bill should be, you can use that alert to check that the debit was correct each month and also have a record of your payment history, which can be especially helpful to those working toward loan forgiveness, Kantrowitz said.

If your loan service takes the wrong amount from your bank account, you should immediately contact the servicer and demand a refund, Kantrowitz said. You should also ask your servicer to cover any late fees from bounced checks or an overdraft, he said.

Unfortunately, Barnard says, the CFPB has heard from borrowers who weren’t able to get a timely refund.

“We’ve seen instances where borrowers have waited months or even years to receive a refund related to autopay errors,” she said.

As a result, she also suggests borrowers reach out to their bank about the incorrect payment.

“The borrowers’ financial institution may be able to quickly resolve errors in autopay amounts,” she said, so long as the borrower notifies them within 10 business days of the amount being debited.

If you run into a wall with your servicer, you can file a complaint with the Education Department’s feedback system at Studentaid.gov/feedback. Problems can also be reported to the Federal Student Aid’s Ombudsman, Kantrowitz said.

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Why Trump’s tax plans could be ‘complicated’ in 2025, policy experts say

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U.S. President-elect Donald Trump speaks during a meeting with House Republicans at the Hyatt Regency hotel in Washington, D.C., on Nov. 13, 2024.

Allison Robbert | Via Reuters

Congressional lawmakers will soon debate expiring tax breaks and new promises from President-elect Donald Trump.

Agreeing on cuts and spending, however, could be a challenge.

With a majority in the House of Representatives and Senate, Republican lawmakers can pass sweeping tax legislation through “reconciliation,” which bypasses the Senate filibuster. Republicans could begin the budget reconciliation process during Trump’s first 100 days in office.

But choosing priorities could be difficult, particularly amid the federal budget deficit, policy experts said Tuesday at a Brookings Institution event in Washington.

Legislators will be “representing their districts, not their party,” Howard Gleckman, a senior fellow at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, said Tuesday in a panel discussion at the Brookings event.

“This is a lot more complicated than just the reds against the blues,” he said.

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‘Political divisions’ could be a barrier

With a slim majority in Congress, Republican lawmakers will soon negotiate with several blocks within their party. Some of these groups have competing priorities.

Enacted by Trump in 2017, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, or TCJA, is a key priority for the next administration.

Without action from Congress, trillions of tax breaks from the TCJA will expire after 2025. These include lower tax brackets, higher standard deductions, a more generous child tax credit, bigger estate and gift tax exemption, and a 20% tax break for pass-through businesses, among other provisions.

The more things you try to bring in, the more potential political divisions we have to navigate.

Molly Reynolds

senior fellow in Governance Studies at Brookings Institution

Tax bill could take longer than expected

Since budget reconciliation involves multiple steps, policy experts say the Republican tax bill could take months.

Plus, Congress has until Dec. 20 to fund the government and avoid a shutdown. A stopgap bill could push the deadline to January or March, which could take time from Trump’s tax priorities.

“The idea that they’re going to do this in 100 days, I think, is foolish,” Gleckman said. “My over-under is Dec. 31, 2025, and that might be optimistic.”

However, the bill could get through by Oct. 1, 2025, which closes the federal government’s fiscal year, other policy experts say.

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Personal Finance

Why it helps to file early

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We are overly reliant on student loans to fund higher education, says NACAC CEO Angel Perez

This week, the new Free Application for Federal Student Aid expanded its “phased rollout” so all students can now apply for aid for the upcoming academic year.

Up until Monday, the 2025-26 FAFSA was only available to limited groups of students in a series of beta tests that began on Oct. 1.

Now, the form is open to all and the Department of Education has said it will be out of testing entirely by Nov. 22 — which puts the official launch ahead of schedule.

Typically, all students have access to the coming academic year’s form in October, but last year’s new simplified form wasn’t available until late December after a monthslong delay.

This year, the plan was to be available to all students and contributors on or before Dec. 1.

Students who submit a form during this final “expanded beta” phase before Nov. 22 will not need to submit a subsequent 2025–26 FAFSA form, the education department said.

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There are still some issues with the new form, some of which also plagued last year’s college aid application cycle, but they all have workarounds, according to higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz.

Altogether, this year’s rollout is “much better than last year,” he said. 

Last year, complications with the new form resulted in some students not applying at all. Ultimately, that meant fewer students went on to college.

Why it’s important to file the FAFSA early

“Students should take full advantage of the early rollout and submit their FAFSA as soon as possible,” said Shaan Patel, the CEO and founder of Prep Expert, which provides Scholastic Aptitude Test and American College Test preparation courses.

The earlier families fill out the form, the better their chances are of receiving aid, since some financial aid is awarded on a first-come, first-served basis, or from programs with limited funds.

“The earlier you apply, the better your chances of securing more aid that doesn’t need to be repaid,” Patel said.

“Submitting early also means you’ll receive your financial aid award letters sooner,” he said. “This gives you ample time to compare offers from different schools and make an informed decision without feeling rushed. Finally, knowing your child’s financial aid status earlier reduces stress and allows your family to focus on other important aspects of college preparation.”

For many students, financial aid is key.

Higher education already costs more than most families can afford, and college costs are still rising. Tuition and fees plus room and board for a four-year private college averaged $58,600 in the 2024-25 school year, up from $56,390 a year earlier. At four-year, in-state public colleges, it was $24,920, up from $24,080, the College Board found.

The FAFSA serves as the gateway to all federal aid money, including federal student loans, work-study and especially grants — which have become the most crucial kind of assistance because they typically do not need to be repaid.

Submitting a FAFSA is also one of the best predictors of whether a high school senior will go on to college, according to the National College Attainment Network. Seniors who complete the FAFSA are 84% more likely to enroll in college directly after high school, according to an NCAN study of 2013 data. 

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