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A ‘soft landing’ is still on the table, economists say

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Traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during afternoon trading on Aug. 02, 2024.

Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images

Recession fears led to a sharp stock-market selloff in recent days, with the S&P 500 index posting a 3% loss Monday, its worst in almost two years.

Weaker-than-expected job data on Friday fueled concerns that the U.S. economy is on shaky footing, and that the Federal Reserve may have erred in its goal of achieving a so-called “soft landing.”

A soft landing would mean the Fed charted a path with its interest-rate policy that tamed inflation without triggering an economic downturn.

Federal data on Friday showed a sharp jump in the U.S. unemployment rate. Investors worried this signaled a “hard landing” was becoming more likely.

However, the odds of a recession starting within the next year are still relatively low, economists said.

In other words, a soft landing is still in the cards, they said.

Economic data still justifies a soft landing, says Apollo's Torsten Slok

“I think far and away the most likely scenario is a soft landing: The economy avoids an economic downturn,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s.

Likewise, Jay Bryson, chief economist at Wells Fargo Economics, said a soft landing remains his “base case” forecast.

But recession worries aren’t totally unfounded due to some signs of economic weakness, he said.

“I think the fears are real,” he said. “I wouldn’t discount them.”

Avoiding recession would also require the Fed to soon start cutting interest rates, Zandi and Bryson said.

If borrowing costs remain high, it increases the danger of a recession, they said.

Why are people freaking out?

The “big shock” on Friday — and a root cause of the ensuing stock-market rout — came from the monthly jobs report issued by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bryson said.

The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in July, up from 4.1% in June and 3.5% a year earlier, it showed.

A 4.3% national jobless rate is low by historical standards, economists said.

But its steady increase in the past year triggered the so-called “Sahm rule.” If history is a guide, that would suggest the U.S. economy is already in a recession.

The Sahm rule is triggered when the three-month moving average of the U.S. unemployment rate is half a percentage point (or more) above its low over the prior 12 months.

That threshold was breached in July, when the Sahm rule recession indicator hit 0.53 points.

Goldman Sachs raised its recession forecast over the weekend to 25% from 15%. (Downturns occur every six to seven years, on average, putting the annual odds around 15%, economists said.)

Zandi estimates the chances of a recession starting over the next year at about 1 in 3, roughly double the historical norm. Bryson puts the probability at about 30% to 40%.

The Sahm rule may not be accurate this time

More Americans entered the job market and looked for work. Those who are on the sidelines and looking for work are officially counted amid the ranks of “unemployed” in federal data, thereby boosting the unemployment rate.

The labor force grew by 420,000 people in July relative to June — a “pretty big” number, Bryson said.

Meanwhile, some federal data suggest businesses are holding on to workers:  The layoff rate was 0.9% in June, tied for the lowest on record dating to 2000, for example.

‘The flags are turning red’

That said, there have been worrying signs of broader cooling in the labor market, economists said.

For example, hiring has slowed below its pre-pandemic baseline, as have the share of workers quitting for new gigs. Claims for unemployment benefits have gradually increased. The unemployment rate is at its highest level since the fall of 2021.

“The labor market is in a perilous spot,” Nick Bunker, economic research director for North America at job site Indeed, wrote in a memo Friday.

“Yellow flags had started to pop up in the labor market data over the past few months, but now the flags are turning red,” he added.

Other positive signs

I think far and away the most likely scenario is a soft landing: The economy avoids an economic downturn.

Mark Zandi

chief economist at Moody’s

Underlying fundamentals in the economy like the financial health of households are “still pretty good” in aggregate, Bryson said.

It’s also a near certainty the Fed will start cutting interest rates in September, taking some pressure off households, especially lower earners, economists said.

“This is not September 2008, by any stretch of the imagination, where it was ‘jump into a fox hole as fast as you can,'” Bryson said. “Nor is it March 2020 when the economy was shutting down.”

“But there are some signs the economy is starting to weaken here,” he added.

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Scott Bessent calls Moody’s a ‘lagging indicator’ after U.S. credit downgrade

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Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview on NBC News’ “Meet the Press” that Moody’s Ratings were a “lagging indicator” after the group downgraded the U.S.’ credit rating by a notch from the highest level.

“I think that Moody’s is a lagging indicator,” Bessent said Sunday. “I think that’s what everyone thinks of credit agencies.”

Moody’s said last week that the downgrade from Aaa to Aa1 “reflects the increase over more than a decade in government debt and interest payment ratios to levels that are significantly higher than similarly rated sovereigns.”

The treasury secretary asserted that the downgrade was related to the Biden administration’s spending policies, which that administration had touted as investments in priorities, including combatting climate change and increasing health care coverage.

“Just like Sean Duffy said with our air traffic control system, we didn’t get here in the past 100 days,” Bessent continued, referring to the transportation secretary. “It’s the Biden administration and the spending that we have seen over the past four years.”

The U.S. has $36.22 trillion in national debt, according to the Treasury Department. It began growing steadily in the 1980s and continued increasing during both President Donald Trump’s first term and former President Joe Biden’s administration.

Bessent also told moderator Kristen Welker that he spoke on the phone with the CEO of Walmart, Doug McMillon, who the treasury secretary said told him the retail giant would “eat some of the tariffs, just as they did in ’18, ’19 and ’20.”

Walmart CFO John David Rainey previously told CNBC that Walmart would absorb some higher costs related to tariffs. The CFO had also told CNBC separately that he was “concerned” consumers would “start seeing higher prices,” pointing to tariffs.

Trump said in a post to Truth Social last week that Walmart should “eat the tariffs.” Walmart responded, saying the company has “always worked to keep our prices as low as possible and we won’t stop.”

“We’ll keep prices as low as we can for as long as we can given the reality of small retail margins,” the statement continued.

When asked about his conversation, Bessent denied he applied any pressure on Walmart to “eat the tariffs,” noting that he and the CEO “have a very good relationship.”

“I just wanted to hear it from him, rather than second-, third-hand from the press,” Bessent said.

McMillon had said on Walmart’s earnings call that tariffs have put pressure on prices. Bessent argued that companies “have to give the worst case scenario” on the calls.

The White House has said that countries are approaching the administration to negotiate over tariffs. The administration has also announced trade agreements with the United Kingdom and China. 

Bessent said on Sunday that he thinks countries that do not negotiate in good faith would see duties return to the rates announced the day the administration unveiled across-the-board tariffs.

“The negotiating leverage that President Trump is talking about here is if you don’t want to negotiate, then it will spring back to the April 2 level,” Bessent said.

Bessent was also asked about Trump saying the administration would accept a luxury jet from Qatar to be used as Air Force One, infuriating Democrats and drawing criticism from some Republicans as well. 

The treasury secretary called questions about the $400 million gift an “off ramp for many in the media not to acknowledge what an incredible trip this was,” referring to investment commitments the president received during his trip last week to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.

“If we go back to your initial question on the Moody’s downgrade, who cares? Qatar doesn’t. Saudi doesn’t. UAE doesn’t,” he said. “They’re all pushing money in.”

When asked for his response to those who argue that the jet sends a message that countries can curry favor with the U.S. by sending gifts, Bessent said that “the gifts are to the American people,” pointing to investment agreements that were unveiled during Trump’s Middle East trip. 

Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., criticized Bessent’s comments about the credit downgrade, saying in a separate interview on “Meet the Press.”

“I heard the treasury secretary say that, ‘Who cares about the downgrading of our credit rating from Moody’s?’ That is a big deal,” Murphy said.

“That means that we are likely headed for a recession. That probably means higher interest rates for anybody out there who is trying to start a business or to buy a home,” he continued. “These guys are running the economy recklessly because all they care about is the health of the Mar-a-Lago billionaire class.”

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Finance

Pilotless planes are taking flight in China. Bank of America says it's time to buy

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While startups around the world have tried to build vehicles that can fly without a pilot, only one is certified to carry people — in China.

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Finance

Insiders at UnitedHealth are scooping up tarnished shares

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Key Points

  • UnitedHealth Group saw some of its insiders step in and purchase declining shares this week.
  • Kristen Gil, a director at the firm, bought 3,700 shares worth roughly $1 million on Thursday.
  • Shares of UnitedHealth plunged nearly 11% to $274.35 on Thursday following a report in The Wall Street Journal that the Department of Justice is conducting a criminal investigation into possible Medicare fraud.

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