A ‘soft landing’ is still on the table, economists say

Published

2 months ago

August 7, 2024

Traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during afternoon trading on Aug. 02, 2024.

Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images

Recession fears led to a sharp stock-market selloff in recent days, with the S&P 500 index posting a 3% loss Monday, its worst in almost two years.

Weaker-than-expected job data on Friday fueled concerns that the U.S. economy is on shaky footing, and that the Federal Reserve may have erred in its goal of achieving a so-called “soft landing.”

A soft landing would mean the Fed charted a path with its interest-rate policy that tamed inflation without triggering an economic downturn.

Federal data on Friday showed a sharp jump in the U.S. unemployment rate. Investors worried this signaled a “hard landing” was becoming more likely.

However, the odds of a recession starting within the next year are still relatively low, economists said.

In other words, a soft landing is still in the cards, they said.

Economic data still justifies a soft landing, says Apollo's Torsten Slok

“I think far and away the most likely scenario is a soft landing: The economy avoids an economic downturn,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s.

Likewise, Jay Bryson, chief economist at Wells Fargo Economics, said a soft landing remains his “base case” forecast.

But recession worries aren’t totally unfounded due to some signs of economic weakness, he said.

“I think the fears are real,” he said. “I wouldn’t discount them.”

Avoiding recession would also require the Fed to soon start cutting interest rates, Zandi and Bryson said.

If borrowing costs remain high, it increases the danger of a recession, they said.

Why are people freaking out?

The “big shock” on Friday — and a root cause of the ensuing stock-market rout — came from the monthly jobs report issued by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bryson said.

The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in July, up from 4.1% in June and 3.5% a year earlier, it showed.

A 4.3% national jobless rate is low by historical standards, economists said.

But its steady increase in the past year triggered the so-called “Sahm rule.” If history is a guide, that would suggest the U.S. economy is already in a recession.

The Sahm rule is triggered when the three-month moving average of the U.S. unemployment rate is half a percentage point (or more) above its low over the prior 12 months.

That threshold was breached in July, when the Sahm rule recession indicator hit 0.53 points.

Goldman Sachs raised its recession forecast over the weekend to 25% from 15%. (Downturns occur every six to seven years, on average, putting the annual odds around 15%, economists said.)

Zandi estimates the chances of a recession starting over the next year at about 1 in 3, roughly double the historical norm. Bryson puts the probability at about 30% to 40%.

The Sahm rule may not be accurate this time

However, there’s good reason to think the Sahm rule isn’t an accurate recession indicator in the current economic cycle, Zandi said.

This is due to how the unemployment rate is calculated: The unemployment rate is a share of unemployed people as a percent of the labor force. So, changes in two variables — the number of unemployed and the size of the labor force — can move it up or down.

The Sahm rule has historically been triggered by a weakening demand for workers. Businesses laid off employees, and the ranks of unemployed people swelled.

However, the unemployment rate’s rise over the past year is largely for “good reasons” — specifically, a big increase in labor supply, Bryson said.

More Americans entered the job market and looked for work. Those who are on the sidelines and looking for work are officially counted amid the ranks of “unemployed” in federal data, thereby boosting the unemployment rate.

The labor force grew by 420,000 people in July relative to June — a “pretty big” number, Bryson said.

Meanwhile, some federal data suggest businesses are holding on to workers: The layoff rate was 0.9% in June, tied for the lowest on record dating to 2000, for example.

‘The flags are turning red’

That said, there have been worrying signs of broader cooling in the labor market, economists said.

For example, hiring has slowed below its pre-pandemic baseline, as have the share of workers quitting for new gigs. Claims for unemployment benefits have gradually increased. The unemployment rate is at its highest level since the fall of 2021.

“The labor market is in a perilous spot,” Nick Bunker, economic research director for North America at job site Indeed, wrote in a memo Friday.

“Yellow flags had started to pop up in the labor market data over the past few months, but now the flags are turning red,” he added.

Other positive signs

There are some positive indicators that counter the negatives and suggest the economy remains resilient, however.

For example, “real” consumer spending (i.e., spending after accounting for inflation) remains strong “across the board,” Zandi said.

That’s important since consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of the U.S. economy. If consumers keep spending, the economy will “be just fine,” Zandi said.

I think far and away the most likely scenario is a soft landing: The economy avoids an economic downturn.

Mark Zandi

chief economist at Moody’s

Underlying fundamentals in the economy like the financial health of households are “still pretty good” in aggregate, Bryson said.

It’s also a near certainty the Fed will start cutting interest rates in September, taking some pressure off households, especially lower earners, economists said.

“This is not September 2008, by any stretch of the imagination, where it was ‘jump into a fox hole as fast as you can,'” Bryson said. “Nor is it March 2020 when the economy was shutting down.”

“But there are some signs the economy is starting to weaken here,” he added.

Finance

After rejecting Google takeover, Wiz says will IPO when ‘stars align’

Published

1 hour ago

October 18, 2024

Business Finance News

Wiz co-founder discusses the company's expansion into the UK

LONDON — Cybersecurity firm Wiz is seeking to hit $1 billion of annual recurring revenues next year, the company’s billionaire co-founder Roy Reznik told CNBC, adding that the firm will go public “when the stars align.”

Wiz makes software that connects to cloud storage providers like Amazon Web Services or Microsoft Azure and scans for everything it stores in the cloud, helping organizations identify and remove risks in their cloud environments. It was founded by four Israeli friends while they served in 8200, the intelligence unit of Israel’s army, and most of Wiz’s engineering personnel are still based in Tel Aviv, Israel.

Earlier this year, the company rejected a $23-billion acquisition bid from Google, which would have marked the tech giant’s largest-ever takeover. At the time, Wiz CEO Assaf Rappaport said the startup was “flattered” by the offer, but would remain an independent company and aim to list instead.

Speaking with CNBC at Wiz’s new office space in London, Reznik said that the company has received offers from “many people that want to get their hands on Wiz stock” — but that, while “very flattering,” the firm still thinks it can do it alone by going public.

“We’ve already broken a few records as a private company, and we believe we can also break a few more records as an independent public company as well,” Reznik said.

Four-year-old Wiz has raised $1.9 billion in venture capital to date, including $1 billion secured this year in a funding round led by Andreessen Horowitz, Lightspeed Venture Partners and Thrive Capital at a valuation of $12 billion.

In 2022, Wiz said it had reached $100 million in annual recurring revenue (ARR), up from just $1 million in 18 months. At the time, the startup said it was “the fastest software company to achieve this feat.”

Reznik, who is the vice president of research and development at Wiz, said the firm now hopes to double from the $500 million of ARR it achieved this year and hit $1 billion in ARR in 2025, which CEO Rappaport cited as a key condition before the company goes public.

UK expansion

Wiz has been expanding its presence internationally, with a particular focus on Europe, from where it sources 35% of its revenues. Last month, the firm opened its first European office in London.

“I think the talent here is amazing, and the ecosystem is amazing,” Reznik told CNBC. “We have always been very much involved in Europe — and specifically the U.K. — and I feel like it’s a natural evolvement of Wiz to double down even more here in London and the U.K.”

The U.K. represents a major growth opportunity when it comes to cybersecurity, Reznik said, adding that recent events like the cyberattack on National Health Service hospitals and an incident affecting Transport for London have “roof topped” the level of interest in the kinds of products Wiz offers.

“The cloud market is going to reach $1 trillion over the next next few years,” Reznik, who moved from Israel to the U.K. just three months ago, told CNBC. “This year is going to be around $700 million, while security is just 4% out of that, I would say. So that makes it a $30 billion market, which is huge.”

Speaking about the U.K. market, Reznik said: “We see a lot of interest here. Many of the largest banks and retailers, are Wiz customers. But we’re also seeing a huge potential for growth.”

Wiz’s customers include online retailer ASOS and digital bank Revolut as customers in the U.K.