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AI dreams running into AI realities says Gartner survey

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AI dreams are running into AI realities as companies that have adopted the technology report uneven gains, even in areas where there is improvement, the results are less radical and dramatic than people may have initially thought. 

This is according to a recent survey from business technology consulting firm Gartner, which found teams that implement traditional AI and generative AI are not significantly more likely to report high productivity gains than teams that implement other technologies such as robotic process automation or blockchain. 

Among teams who primarily used traditional AI, 37% reported high productivity gains as a result of implementation, while gen AI-using teams fared marginally worse at 34%. In comparison, 34% of teams using other new technologies also reported high productivity gains, a level that is surprisingly not significantly different from teams using either type of AI. 

Gartner attributed this to several factors. For example, inflated expectations of AI’s capabilities lead to disillusionment. While AI can automate certain tasks and provide valuable insights, it does not automatically translate into substantial productivity improvements across the board. Additionally, measuring productivity gains can be challenging, and implementation lags often delay the realization of benefits.

Of note, though, is that these percentages are averages; some functions have actually benefited quite a lot from AI while others get very little. The biggest beneficiaries have been marketing professionals, with 59% reporting high productivity gains as a result of AI implementation, followed by supply chain specialists at 45%, and sourcing and procurement professionals at 44%. After this, those reporting high productivity gains drop dramatically: only 28% of those in manufacturing, production, quality and R&D functions report high productivity gains from AI; only 27% in the legal, risk and compliance areas; 26% in finance; and, last, IT, which only had 18% reporting high productivity gains. 

Marketing has taken well to AI, according to Gartner’s survey, because it can be used to analyze large customer datasets and pinpoint distinct segment-level buying characteristics, as well as quickly create highly targeted and personalized digital marketing content. By comparison, functions such as legal and HR teams have lots of opportunities for AI deployment, but have lagged, at least partly due to areas such as legal contract review or candidate screening processes, which require teams to invest in significant risk monitoring, governance and rework, effectively capping any time savings and productivity gains.

Similarly, while finance has a lot of opportunities for AI deployment—with most common use cases being things like intelligent process automation, error and anomaly detection, basic financial analysis and forecasting—it lags behind other functions, at least partly due to the culture of finance itself, according to Gartner. 

“Many finance leaders tend to be conservative in their AI deployment due to their high expectations for accuracy, desire to minimize data security risks, and need for auditable reporting and evidence. Coupled with AI-related data and skills gaps in finance and limited funding, most finance organizations are not yet at the point where they can roll out AI more broadly and capture big productivity gains. Only 20% of finance organizations are using AI in production, and only 6% are scaling AI to a larger group of users,” said the report. “The good news is that 66% of CFOs are more optimistic or much more optimistic about the value of AI in finance compared to a year ago.”

When it comes to the teams who do report high productivity gains because of AI, the most common positives have been significant cost savings on the enterprise level, improvements in the creation of more novel products and offerings, and significant improvements in the quality of their enterprise’s products and offerings. 

Gartner found individuals save 5.4 hours per week on average after implementing traditional AI, or 4.98 hours per week for those using generative AI. This is slightly less than what was found by a poll from business solutions provider Intapp, which said AI saves accountants about 31 hours a week; but roughly in line with the results of a Karbon survey which found AI solutions have saved accountants between 3.8 to 6.5 hours over a five-day work week. 

The Gartner poll asked what people were doing with the 5.4 hours saved per week. It found that 0.8 hours were devoted to reviewing and redoing work done by AI; 1.4 hours were devoted to taking on extra work that did not improve team outcomes; 0.8 hours were devoted to developing skills; 0.6 hours were dedicated to “reducing hours worked”; and 1.7 hours were devoted to taking on extra work that does improve team outcomes. A similar pattern emerges for the 4.98 hours saved by those who use gen AI. 

Staff inertia was named as a major factor in why AI has not been saving even more time. It noted, for instance, that 60% of finance staff have a tendency to perform manual work on processes that have been mostly or fully automated, either because they don’t trust the technology or because they have an affinity for legacy work. 

“Changes to ways of working will no doubt come with time, as workers begin to trust AI more and there is effective change management and oversight to reallocate time spend,” said the Gartner report. “Teams reporting higher productivity gains make more strategic use of this time by planning for it in advance.” 

Until that day comes, however, Gartner predicted is unlikely that we will see mass displacement of workers in the near-term future. Gartner found that, so far, the time savings from AI do not yet add up to a full-time employee’s time at the average organization. It’s likely that while AI helps an employee with singular tasks, it does not yet replace an entire employee. However, it did note that, given the uneven productivity gains from AI, this means that larger companies, departments and processes are more likely to quickly realize headcount reductions than smaller groups, making the productive reallocation of that time even more important. Overall the Gartner survey challenged widespread fears that AI is coming for people’s jobs already. 

“Anecdotal evidence abounds about AI-driven job displacement. For example, a technology CEO in a recent earnings call claimed that AI-based conversational agents enabled a 50% reduction in IT support headcount, in much the same way that word processors displaced floors’ worth of typists. To the contrary, Gartner’s AI in Finance Survey found that although 53% of surveyed finance leaders expect headcount reductions from AI, only 5% have actually made headcount reductions,” said the report. 

Leaders should instead think of AI not as a headcount reducer but as something that compresses experience in low-complexity roles and getting new workers up to speed quickly at delivering quality output. AI skills are now common among teams, but they are not a differentiating driver of productivity gains. Teams with the highest productivity gains from AI are better at reorganizing to optimize the impact of AI and taking an open and explorative approach to AI deployment. 

Gartner said that if leaders want to get the most out of AI, they need to adapt their operating model to the technology, not the other way around. Those who have seen high productivity gains adapted both internal structures as well as their team’s ways of working to take advantage of AI’s capabilities.

This includes redesigning structures and workflows to eliminate process bottlenecks and shifting time more quickly to value-added tasks. Leaders should also build AI communities that drive collaboration and knowledge sharing among users that can develop richer models than a siloed team of AI experts. Finally, they need to nurture a culture of AI acceptance through instilling an openness to learn and exploring new AI use cases without fear of AI replacing their jobs. Rather than asking, “Will AI replace us?” the mindset should change to “How can we be more effective at our jobs using AI?”

Overall, Gartner recommended that leaders set realistic expectations for productivity gains in AI investment business cases and drive manager accountability for effectively shifting their team’s time savings from AI use toward value-added activities that improve team outcomes. Beyond scaling back expectations for AI, they should also build a contingency plan for a possible increase in demand for knowledge workers. 

“Despite the excitement surrounding AI, its impact on productivity has been inconsistent, leading to what some describe as the AI productivity paradox,” said Randeep Rathindran, distinguished vice president at Gartner, speaking at its CFO & Finance Executive Conference in Sydney. “While AI has shown potential to boost productivity at the segment level, such as in call centers, broader organizational benefits have been harder to achieve. Therefore, CFOs should recalibrate expectations on how AI will truly impact worker productivity and headcount.”

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Trump said to be open to lowering SALT cap in GOP tax bill

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President Donald Trump told Senate Republicans he is open to a state and local tax deduction cap lower than the $40,000 in the House-passed version of his giant tax bill, a person familiar with the matter said. 

Trump signaled his position in a meeting with Senate Finance Committee Republicans on Wednesday, and the comments added momentum to Senate GOP efforts to enact a lower SALT cap. 

That push has led to resistance from the House, with Speaker Mike Johnson telling Bloomberg TV Thursday he is fighting to keep the $40,000 cap as it is. 

After the White House meeting Wednesday, Senate Finance Committee Chair Mike Crapo lamented about the cost of the House bill’s SALT cap. 

“There’s not a single Republican senator from New York, New Jersey or California, so there’s not a strong sentiment in the Republican conference to do $350 billion for states that the other states subsidize,” Crapo told reporters.   

Crapo’s top priority for the Senate tax bill is extending a bevy of temporary business tax breaks in the House bill that would expire after 2029, including enhanced interest expensing and deductions on research, development and equipment. Crapo is looking to trim other aspects of the House bill in order to offset the added cost of making those breaks permanent. 

He said that a decision had not yet been made on whether to lower the SALT cap or to what level. Under current law, individuals and couples can deduct $10,000 in state and local taxes if they itemize on their tax returns. 

Johnson said that the higher cap is crucial for the House to be able to pass the final version of the tax bill when it is sent back from the Senate later in the summer. He said he has made that clear to the Senate GOP.

“I told my friends I am crossing the Grand Canyon on a piece of dental floss,” he said.

The Washington Post first reported Trump’s openness to a smaller cap. 

“The White House is working closely with leaders in Congress to ensure that this landmark legislation gets over the finish line,” said spokesperson Kush Desai.

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Employers added 139K jobs in May, including 3,100 in accounting

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Employment grew by 139,000 jobs in May, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday, while the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2%.

Employment continued to grow in the health care, leisure and hospitality and social assistance sectors, but the federal government continued to lose jobs as the Trump administration kept up its efforts to slash the workforce. The professional and business services sector lost 18,000 jobs in May, but added 3,100 in accounting, tax preparation, bookkeeping and payroll services. 

Average hourly earnings increased 15 cents, or 0.4%, to $36.24 in May. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased 3.9%. 

“Really only two sectors made up the bulk of all job growth — health care and social assistance (+78K) and leisure and hospitality (+48K),” said Andrew Flowers, chief economist at Appcast. “The ‘diffusion index’ (which measures the breadth of job growth) fell near the lowest point of this cycle. Beyond those sectors, there were signs that professional and business services job growth has weakened further, with the three-month moving average now negative. Moreover, the DOGE-led effort to trim government bureaucrats is having real effects, with a -22K job contraction in the federal workforce.”

As part of those cuts, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics itself has been cutting back on its collection of consumer data for measures such as the Consumer Price Index, which could affect the reliability of some of its data. The BLS has also been getting lower response rates in recent years to its surveys, which could affect the reliability of its data. “They’re getting a lot less data than they used to, so those things add up to probably some volatility in the numbers that come out,” said Frank Fiorille, vice president of risk, compliance and data analytics at Paychex.

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Tax Fraud Blotter: Prep perps

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Bank job; the magic is gone; not a beautiful day in the Neighborhood; and other highlights of recent tax cases.

Washington, D.C.: CPA Timothy Trifilo has been sentenced to 20 months in prison for making a false statement on a mortgage loan application and for not filing an income tax return.

Trifilo worked in compliance for several large accounting and finance firms and recently was managing director at a tax firm where he specialized in transaction structuring and advisory service, tax compliance and tax due diligence.

For a decade, he did not file federal income tax returns nor pay taxes owed despite earning more than $7.7 million during that time. He caused a tax loss to the IRS of more than $2 million.

In February 2023, Trifilo sought to obtain a $1.36 million bank-financed loan to purchase a home in D.C. and was working with a mortgage company. After the company told him that the bank would not approve the loan without copies of his filed returns, Trifilo provided fabricated documents to make it appear as if he had filed federal returns for 2020 and 2021. On these returns and other documents, Trifilo listed a former colleague as the individual who prepared the returns and uploaded them for filing with the IRS. This individual did not prepare the returns, has never prepared returns for Trifilo and did not authorize Trifilo to use his name on the returns and other documents.

The bank approved the loan and Trifilo purchased the home.

Trifilo, who previously pleaded guilty, was also ordered to serve two years of supervised release and pay $2,057,256.40 in restitution to the IRS.

New York: Tax preparer Rafael Alvarez, 61, of Cortland Manor, New York, has been sentenced to four years in prison in connection with a decade-long, $145-million tax fraud.

Alvarez, a.k.a. “the Magician,” who previously pleaded guilty, oversaw the filing of tens of thousands of federal individual income tax returns that included false information designed to fraudulently reduce clients’ taxes. From around 2010 to 2020, Alvarez was the CEO, owner and manager of ATAX New York, also d.b.a. ATAX New York-Marble Hill, ATAX Marble Hill, ATAX Marble Hill NY and ATAX Corporation. This high-volume prep company in the Bronx, New York, prepared some 90,000 federal income tax returns for clients during this period.

Alvarez both prepared returns for clients and recruited, supervised and directed other personnel who in turn prepared returns. He oversaw what authorities called “a sweeping fraudulent scheme” where he and his employees submitted false information on clients’ returns. This information included, among other things, bogus itemized tax deductions, made-up capital losses, phony business expenses and fraudulent tax credits.

Alvarez recruited to ATAX and personally trained “impressionable, easily intimidated” workers. When some employees questioned Alvarez about his fraudulent tax prep, he threatened these employees about reporting his scheme.

He deprived the IRS of $145 million in tax revenue. 

He was also sentenced to three years of supervised release and ordered to pay the IRS $145 million in restitution and forfeit more than $11.84 million.

Philadelphia: Tax preparer James J. Sirleaf, 65, of Darby, Pennsylvania, has pleaded guilty to a multiyear scheme to help clients file false income tax returns to fraudulently increase their refunds, as well as to filing false personal income tax returns for himself.

Sirleaf, who previously pleaded guilty, was the sole owner and operator of Metro Financial Services; he prepared false and fraudulent 1040s for clients for at least tax years 2016 through 2019. On the returns he included false deductions, business expenses and dependent information.

He also filed false returns for himself for tax years 2017 through 2019, failing to fully report his income.

Sirleaf caused a tax loss to the IRS of $219,622.

Sentencing is Sept. 3.

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Summerfield, North Carolina: William Lamar Rhew III has pleaded guilty to wire fraud, money laundering, securities fraud, tax evasion and failure to file returns in connection with a $20 million Ponzi scheme.

From November 2017 to December 2023, Rhew defrauded at least 117 investors of at least $24 million. He induced victims to invest with his company, Chadley Capital, which would allegedly buy accounts receivable at a discount, sell them for a profit and provide consistently high rates of return. Rhew touted the company’s increasing deal flow and underwriting standards and claimed $300 million in transactions in 2023, consistent returns exceeding 20% per year and nearly 74% total growth over 24 months.

All Rhew’s representations were false. Instead of investing victims’ funds, Rhew used the money on personal expenses, including the purchases of a boat, a beach house and luxury cars, and to make “interest” and “withdrawal” payments to other victim-investors.

For 2018 through 2022, Rhew willfully failed to report nearly $9 million in income to the IRS.

He has agreed to pay almost $14.9 in restitution to the victims and $3,056,936 to the IRS.

Sentencing is Aug. 22. Rhew faces up to 20 years in prison, supervised release of up to three years and monetary penalties.

Miami: In related cases, three tax preparers have pleaded guilty to tax crimes connected to a scheme to prepare false returns.

Franklin Carter Jr., of Sanford, Florida, pleaded guilty to conspiring to defraud the U.S. and to not filing returns. Jonathan Carrillo, of St. Cloud, Florida, pleaded guilty to conspiring to defraud the U.S. and assisting in the preparation of false returns.

Diandre Mentor has pleaded guilty to conspiring to defraud the United States by filing false returns for clients.

From 2016 to 2020, Carter and Carrillo owned and operated Neighborhood Advance Tax, a tax prep business with a dozen offices throughout Florida. Mentor worked there between January 2017 and 2019. The conspirators inflated client refunds by fabricated deductions and held periodic training to teach Neighborhood employees how to prepare fraudulent returns.

In 2020, Mentor and his co-conspirators also started Smart Tax & Finance, which  expanded to 12 franchise locations throughout South and Central Florida. The next year, Carter, Carrillo and the co-conspirators started Taxmates, which operated out of the same offices that Neighborhood had used. Both firms prepared false returns for clients; many of those returns included false deductions.

The three also continued to teach franchise owners and employees how to prepare false returns for clients. In addition, Carter did not file personal tax returns for 2019 through 2021.

Carter and Carrillo caused a tax loss to the IRS exceeding $12 million. Mentor caused a tax loss to the IRS totaling $3,090,077.

Several co-conspirators have also pleaded guilty, including Abryle de la Cruz, Emmanuel Almonor, Adon Hemley and Isaiah Hayes.

Carter and Carrillo each face up to five years in prison for the conspiracy charge. Carter faces up to a year for each failure to file a return charge; Carillo faces a maximum of three years for each charge of assisting in the preparation of a false return; Mentor faces up to five years in prison. All three also face a period of supervised release, restitution and monetary penalties.

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