AI-generated responses are becoming more common, whether travelers know or not.
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An automated financial advisor called PortfolioPilot has quickly gained $20 billion in assets in a possible preview of how disruptive artificial intelligence could be for the wealth management industry.
The service has added more than 22,000 users since its launch two years ago, according to Alexander Harmsen, co-founder of Global Predictions, which launched the product.
The San Francisco-based startup raised $2 million this month from investors including Morado Ventures and the NEA Angel Fund to fund its growth, CNBC has learned.
The world’s largest wealth management firms have rushed to implement generative AI after the arrival of OpenAI’s ChatGPT, rolling out services that augment human financial advisors with meeting assistants and chatbots. But the wealth management industry has long feared a future where human advisors are no longer necessary, and that possibility seems closer with generative AI, which uses large language models to create human-sounding responses to questions.
Still, the advisor-led wealth management space, with giants including Morgan Stanley and Bank of America, has grown over the past decade even amid the advent of robo-advisors like Betterment and Wealthfront. At Morgan Stanley, for instance, advisors manage $4.4 trillion in assets, far more than the $1.2 trillion managed in its self-directed channel.
Many providers, whether human or robo-advisor, end up putting clients into similar portfolios, said Harmsen, 32, who previously cofounded an autonomous drone software company called Iris Automation.
“People are fed up with cookie-cutter portfolios,” Harmsen told CNBC. “They really want opinionated insights; they want personalized recommendations. If we think about next-generation advice, I think it’s truly personalized, and you get to control how involved you are.”
AI-generated report cards
The startup uses generative AI models from OpenAI, Anthropic and Meta’s Llama, meshing it with machine learning algorithms and traditional finance models for more than a dozen purposes throughout the product, including for forecasting and assessing user portfolios, Harmsen said.
When it comes to evaluating portfolios, Global Predictions focuses on three main factors: whether investment risk levels match the user’s tolerance; risk-adjusted returns; and resilience against sharp declines, he said.
Users can get a report card-style grade of their portfolio by connecting their investment accounts or manually inputting their stakes into the service, which is free; a $29 per month “Gold” account adds personalized investment recommendations and an AI assistant.
“We will give you very specific financial advice, we will tell you to buy this stock, or ‘Here’s a mutual fund that you’re paying too much in fees for, replace it with this,'” Harmsen said.
“It could be simple stuff like that, or it could be much more complicated advice, like, ‘You’re overexposed to changing inflation conditions, maybe you should consider adding some commodities exposure,'” he added.
Global Predictions targets people with between $100,000 and $5 million in assets — in other words, people with enough money to begin worrying about diversification and portfolio management, Harmsen said.
The median PortfolioPilot user has a $450,000 net worth, he said.
The startup doesn’t yet take custody of user funds; instead it gives paying customers detailed directions on how to best tailor their portfolios. While that has lowered the hurdle for users to get involved with the software, a future version could give the company more control over client money, Harmsen said.
“It’s likely that over the next year or two, we will build more and more automation and deeper integrations into these institutions, and maybe even a Gen 2 robo-advisor system that allows you to custody funds with us, and we’ll just execute the trades for you.”
‘Massive shake up’
Harmsen said he created the first version of PortfolioPilot a few years ago to manage his own newfound wealth after selling his first company.
He’d grown frustrated after meeting more than a dozen financial advisors and realizing that they were “basically just salespeople trying to give access to this fairly standard” approach, he said.
“It felt like a very real problem for me, because the only alternative I saw on the market was, you know, basically becoming a day trader and becoming my own portfolio manager,” Harmsen said.
“I wanted hedge fund-quality tools and ways to think about risk and downside protection, and portfolio management across all of my different accounts and the buckets of money in crypto and real estate,” he said.
So around the time he was starting a family and buying a home in San Francisco, he began coding a program that could manage his investments.
After realizing it could have a broader use, Harmsen began building a team for Global Predictions, including three former employees of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund.
The company’s rise has attracted regulatory scrutiny; in March, the Securities and Exchange Commission accused Global Predictions of making misleading claims in 2023 on its website, including that it was the “first regulated AI financial advisor.” Global Predictions paid a $175,000 fine and changed its tagline as a result.
While today’s dominant providers have been rushing to implement AI, many will be left behind by the transition to fully automated advice, Harmsen predicted.
“The real key is you need to find a way to use AI and economic models and portfolio management models to generate advice automatically,” he said.
“I think that is such a huge jump for the traditional industry; it’s not incremental, it’s very black or white,” he said. “I don’t know what’s going to happen over the next 10 years, but I suspect there will be a massive shake up for traditional human financial advisors.”
After last month’s excitement over stimulus plans, Chinese stocks now face mounting challenges as earnings have yet to pick up and heightened U.S. trade tensions loom. “Stock picking remains important with [the] headwind of tariffs, a weaker currency and persistent deflation,” Morgan Stanley chief China equity strategist Laura Wang and a team said in a report Thursday. For investment options, she referred to the firm’s survey of China stocks the investment bank’s analysts already cover. The firm screened for stocks that could outperform depending on which of three scenarios unfolded. Only the bear case accounted for significant U.S. tariffs and restrictions. The base and bull cases assumed the status quo in U.S.-China relations. The bear case also expects 1 trillion yuan, or $140 billion, in fiscal stimulus a year and MSCI China earnings per share growth of 3% this year and 5% next year. Morgan Stanley’s basket of bear case stocks only includes overweight-rated names with a dividend yield above 4% this year. They also have free cash flow yield above 4% from 2023 to 2025 and market capitalization above $2 billion, among other factors. The companies must not be on Morgan Stanley’s lists of stocks at a disadvantage from Republican policy and supply chain diversification. The only consumer name that made the list was Tingyi , a Hong Kong-listed company that owns instant noodles brand Master Kong. The company is also PepsiCo ‘s exclusive manufacturer and seller in China. Tingyi’s net profit in beverages rose nearly 26% in the first half of 2024 compared to a year ago, while that of instant noodles rose 5.4%. Morgan Stanley expects Tingyi’s earnings per share to grow 12% this year and 11% in 2025. Other Chinese companies that made Morgan Stanley’s bear case basket included two state-owned energy stocks: drilling company China Oilfield Services and Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation , which specializes in shipping oil and natural gas. Both stocks are listed in Hong Kong, as is the only industrials name on the bear case list, Sinotruk . The truck manufacturer is also state owned. Morgan Stanley expects China Oilfield Services can grow earnings per share by 41% this year and 33% next year, while Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation can see its earnings rise 33% this year, before slowing to 16% growth next year. Sinotruk earnings can grow 18% this year and 17% next year, according to Morgan Stanley estimates. MSCI China constituents are on track for their 13th straight quarter of earnings misses, despite recent improvements in economic data, Morgan Stanley’s Wang said. “We expect further earnings downward revisions amid lingering deflationary pressure and geopolitical uncertainties until more policy clarity emerges.” Asia equity fund managers have modestly increased their exposure to China since September’s stimulus announcements, Morningstar strategist Claire Liang said in a phone interview Friday. “But many managers have said whether this rally can continue will depend on whether the policies can see real results,” Liang said in Mandarin, which was translated by CNBC. Beyond stabilizing the economy, she said the managers are looking for whether corporate earnings can recover. China’s October data release on Friday underscored a slow economic recovery despite the latest barrage of stimulus announcements. Industrial production missed forecasts. Fixed asset investment grew more slowly than forecast as the drop in real estate investment steepened, albeit with new home sales narrowing their decline. Only retail sales beat expectations with 4.8% growth . For China’s export-heavy economy, the risk of U.S. tariffs has only risen over the past two weeks as the Republican Party has taken control of the U.S. Congress and President-elect Donald Trump has filled his cabinet with China hawks. Morgan Stanley’s U.S. policy team expects Trump to impose tariffs soon after he takes office, and potentially hit Europe and Mexico along with China imports. While China is better positioned than six years ago to stave off the effects of targeted tariffs, the analysts said global duties on U.S. imports would hit China as much as targeted tariffs did in 2018.
Elon Musk at the tenth Breakthrough Prize ceremony held at the Academy Museum of Motion Pictures on April 13, 2024 in Los Angeles, California.
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On Saturday, Elon Musk shared who he is endorsing for Treasury secretary on X, a cabinet position President-elect Donald Trump has yet to announce his preference to fill.
Musk wrote that Howard Lutnick, Trump-Vance transition co-chair and CEO and chairman of Cantor Fitzgerald, BGC Group and Newmark Group chairman, will “actually enact change.”
Lutnick and Key Square Group founder and CEO Scott Bessent are reportedly top picks to run the Treasury Department.
Musk, CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, also included his thoughts on Bessent in his post on X.
“My view fwiw is that Bessent is a business-as-usual choice,” he wrote.
“Business-as-usual is driving America bankrupt so we need change one way or another,” he added.
Musk also stated it would be “interesting to hear more people weigh in on this for @realDonaldTrump to consider feedback.”
Howard Lutnick, chairman and chief executive officer of Cantor Fitzgerald LP, left, and Elon Musk, chief executive officer of Tesla Inc., during a campaign event with former US President Donald Trump, not pictured, at Madison Square Garden in New York, US, on Sunday, Oct. 27, 2024.
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In a statement to Politico, Trump transition spokesperson Karoline Leavitt made it clear that the president-elect has not made any decisions regarding the position of Treasury secretary.
“President-elect Trump is making decisions on who will serve in his second administration,” Leavitt said in a statement. “Those decisions will be announced when they are made.”
Both Lutnick and Bessent have close ties to Trump. Lutnick and Trump have known each other for decades, and the CEO has even hosted a fundraiser for the president-elect.
The Wall Street Journal also reported that Lutnick has already been helping Trump review candidates for cabinet positions in his administration.
On the other hand, Bessent was a key economic advisor to the president-elect during his 2024 campaign. Bessent also received an endorsement from Republican Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, according to Semafor.
“He’s from South Carolina, I know him well, he’s highly qualified,” Graham said.
Money manager John Davi is positioning for challenges tied to President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff agenda.
Davi said he worries the new administration’s policies could be “very inflationary,” so he thinks it is important to choose investments carefully.
“Small-cap industrials make more sense than large-cap industrials,” the Astoria Portfolio Advisors CEO told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week.
Davi, who is also the firm’s chief investment officer, expects the red sweep will help push a pro-growth, pro-domestic policy agenda forward that will benefit small caps.
It appears Wall Street agrees so far. Since the presidential election, the Russell 2000 index, which tracks small-cap stocks, is up around 4% as of Friday’s close.
Davi, whose firm has $1.9 billion in assets under management, also likes staying domestic despite the tariff risks.
“We’re overweight the U.S. I think that’s the right playbook in the next few years until the midterms,” added Davi. “We have two years of where he [Trump] can control a lot of the narrative.”
But Davi plans to stay away from fixed income due to challenges tied to the growing budget deficit.
“Be careful if you own bonds for sure,” said Davi.