Analysts are pointing to Hong Kong-traded Air China as the leading turnaround candidate among struggling Chinese airlines. China has been far slower than the U.S. to recover from the shock of the 2020-2023 pandemic as the world’s second-largest economy faces its own unique challenges. But among several analysts, ranging from DBS to Citigroup, Beijing-based Air China is the top pick for playing a sustained pickup in Chinese travel at home and abroad. Air China, part of United Airline ‘s Star Alliance group, “is the only Chinese network carrier serving all six continents across the globe, with a particularly strong presence in the profitable China-to-Europe and China-to-North America routes,” DBS analysts Jason Sum and Paul Yong said in a report Thursday. DBS maintained its buy rating, with a price target of 5.60 Hong Kong dollars (72 cents), implying upside of 13% from Air China’s close Friday. 753-HK 5Y line Air China 60% below peak While 2024 saw Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rally nearly 18%, Air China saw a more muted, low single-digit increase that left it trading more than 60% below its 2018 all-time high. That gives Air China a “significantly more attractive” valuation, close to its five-year pre-pandemic average, the DBS analysts said. “A stronger-than-expected generation of cash flows will enable the group to deleverage swiftly and repair its battered balance sheet.” The upcoming Lunar New Year, which runs from late January to early February, could provide a boost. Chinese booking site Trip.com noted that interest in international travel over the holiday is way up . Ticket demand for travel from mainland China to parts of Europe is up by about 50% from a year ago, while inbound demand has tripled, with travelers coming both from nearby Japan and the distant U.S., Trip.com said in a forecast Tuesday. Expanded visa-free travel Chinese authorities in recent months have expanded visa-free policies for travelers from several countries, including parts of Europe and, notably, Japan. Citi analysts in early December reiterated their buy rating on Air China, calling it their top travel stock pick among Chinese airlines. They expect the government’s economic policy will support consumption in the coming year. JPMorgan analysts in late November expressed similar optimism, citing Air China’s greater exposure to international travel than rivals, and its roughly 30% stake in Hong Kong-based Cathay Pacific . The analysts upgraded Air China to overweight from neutral — reversing a downgrade made in early October, according to FactSet. The JPM analysts also raised their price target to HKD5.90 based on expectations for significant improvement in earnings over the next two years. The JPM analysts also expect airlines to benefit from lower fuel costs if President-elect Donald Trump carries through on pledges to further reduce energy prices . U.S. airline stocks have outperformed the S & P 500 since early October, the JPMorgan analysts said. Back in early November, Goldman Sachs analysts had already named Air China a “main beneficiary” of increased business travel and resumption in long-haul flights. Goldman expects domestic air passengers grew by 11% in 2024, exceeding 2019 levels, and will expand by another 6% in 2025. The analysts see international traffic recovering to slightly more than 2019 levels in the year ahead. Still, Air China has a long way to go to catch up to its partner United, which closed at a new record in early December and soared 135% in 2024, its largest ever annual gain. Chicago-based United, which operates more international routes than any U.S. airline, has benefited from lower jet fuel costs and a continued recovery in post-pandemic travel demand. — CNBC’s Michael Bloom and Sean Conlon contributed to this report
Former Walmart U.S. CEO Bill Simon contends the retailer’s stock sell-off tied to a slowing profit growth forecast and tariff fears is creating a major opportunity for investors.
“I absolutely thought their guidance was pretty strong given the fact that… nobody knows what’s going to happen with tariffs,” he told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Thursday, the day Walmart reported fiscal fourth-quarter results.
But even if U.S. tariffs against Canada and Mexico move forward, Simon predicts “nothing” should happen to Walmart.
“Ultimately, the consumer decides whether there’s a tariff or not,” said Simon. “There’s a tariff on avocados from Mexico. Do you have guacamole with your chips or do you have salsa and queso where there is no tariff?”
Plus, Simon, who’s now on the Darden Restaurants board and is the chairman at Hanesbrands, sees Walmart as a nimble retailer.
“The big guys, Walmart,Costco,Target, Amazon… have the supply and the sourcing capability to mitigate tariffs by redirecting the product – bringing it in from different places [and] developing their own private labels,” said Simon. “Those guys will figure out tariffs.”
Walmart shares just saw their worst weekly performance since May 2022 — tumbling almost 9%. The stock price fell more than 6% on its earnings day alone. It was the stock’s worst daily performance since November 2023.
Simon thinks the sell-off is bizarre.
“I thought if you hit your numbers and did well and beat your earnings, things would usually go well for you in the market. But little do we know. You got to have some magic dust,” he said. “I don’t know how you could have done much better for the quarter.”
It’s a departure from his stance last May on “Fast Money” when he warned affluent consumers were creating a “bubble” at Walmart. It came with Walmart shares hitting record highs. He noted historical trends pointed to an eventual shift back to service from convenience and price.
But now Simon thinks the economic and geopolitical backdrop is so unprecedented, higher-income consumers may shop at Walmart permanently.
“If you liked that story yesterday before the earnings release, you should love it today because it’s… cheaper,” said Simon.
Walmart stock is now down 10% from its all-time high hit on Feb. 14. However, it’s still up about 64% over the past 52 weeks.
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Investors may want to reducetheir exposure to the world’s largest emerging market.
Perth Tolle, who’s the founder of Life + Liberty Indexes, warns China’s capitalism model is unsustainable.
“I think the thinking used to be that their capitalism would lead to democracy,” she told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week. “Economic freedom is a necessary, but not sufficient precondition for personal freedom.”
She runs the Freedom 100 Emerging Markets ETF — which is up more than 43% since its first day of trading on May 23, 2019. So far this year, Tolle’s ETF is up 9%, while the iShares China Large-Cap ETF, which tracks the country’s biggest stocks, is up 19%.
The fund has never invested in China, according to Tolle.
Tolle spent part of her childhood in Beijing. When she started at Fidelity Investments as a private wealth advisor in 2004, Tolle noted all of her clients wanted exposure to China’s market.
“I didn’t want to personally be investing in China at that point, but everyone else did,” she said. “Then, I had clients from Russia who said, ‘I don’t want to invest in Russia because it’s like funding terrorism.’ And, look how prescient that is today. So, my own experience and those of some of my clients led me to this idea in the end.”
She prefers emerging economies that prioritize freedom.
“Without that, the economy is going to be constrained,” she added.
ETF investor Tom Lydon, who is the former VettaFi head, also sees China as a risky investment.
“If you look at emerging markets… by not being in China from a performance standpoint, it’s provided less volatility and better performance,” Lydon said.
Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway raised its stakes in Mitsubishi Corp., Mitsui & Co., Itochu, Marubeni and Sumitomo — all to 7.4%.
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Warren Buffett released Saturday his annual letter to shareholders.
In it, the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway discussed how he still preferred stocks over cash, despite the conglomerate’s massive cash hoard. He also lauded successor Greg Able for his ability to pick opportunities — and compared him to the late Charlie Munger.