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An unfinished election may shape a swing state’s future

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WHEN SHOULD an election loser concede? That question lies at the core of a fight over a North Carolina state Supreme Court race that is still being contested months after election day. Jefferson Griffin, a Republican, challenged the incumbent Democrat, Allison Riggs, for her seat in November. After losing by just 734 votes he requested two recounts. When both reaffirmed her win he brought lawsuits, challenging the ballots of nearly 70,000 voters. On January 7th the Republican court, which he hopes to sit on, delayed certification of Ms Riggs’s victory.

Mr Griffin is questioning several sets of voters. They include 5,500 who live abroad or on military bases and did not present a photo ID with their absentee ballots. Another group of just over 60,000 filed registration forms missing a Social Security or driving-licence number. Among the rest, he says, are felons and dead people.

Democrats are up in arms about the challenges. “This is probably the most anti-democratic action we’ve seen on the state level,” says Morgan Jackson, a party strategist. The two largest groups of voters under scrutiny did nothing wrong. According to the rules set by the state election board, overseas voters are exempt from providing ID, and although the board was aware that some voters had incomplete registration forms, it chose not to fix them before the election. That decision was blessed by a federal judge.

An analysis by Chris Cooper of Western Carolina University finds that less than a quarter of the two largest groups of voters being challenged are Republicans. And Mr Griffin is questioning overseas votes in only four of North Carolina’s 100 counties—the most urban, Democratic ones. Mr Griffin is not shy about his goals: in a brief filed last week he encouraged the court to stop checking ballots once the outcome flips in his favour.

At stake is the political future of one of America’s swingiest states, a hotbed for battles over redistricting. The state court is the arbiter of election maps. If Mr Griffin were to secure a spot on the 5-2 Republican-controlled bench, Republicans would surely determine redistricting after the 2030 census. But such a naked power-grab could backfire, says Mr Cooper. North Carolina will host one of the country’s most competitive Senate races in 2026. Even Republicans admit that a story about their team trying to nullify legal votes could help Democrats in that one.

Bob Orr, a former Republican justice who has since left the party, reckons the idea of the legal challenge was prepared before the election for Donald Trump, in case the presidential race in North Carolina was close. Paul Shumaker, who ran Mr Griffin’s campaign, denies that. Republicans claim that the state election board, which is run by Democrats, misinterpreted North Carolina’s voter-ID mandate. Although the rule exempting overseas voters was unanimously confirmed by a rules committee, Republicans believe that the appointed board ought not to be allowed to carve out exceptions from state law. “Why should some people vote under different rules?” Mr Shumaker asks.

Jim Stirling of the John Locke Foundation, a conservative think-tank, says changing the game after everyone has played seems like a hard sell. Yet partisans are committed to the fight. Jason Simmons, the Republican state-party chair, says that Mr Griffin’s loss simply made their unresolved concerns more pressing. He reckons Democrats are the ones playing dirty. “Instead of allowing the process to play itself out they want to adjudicate this in the courts of public opinion,” he says.

Meanwhile the legal challenge is moving through both state and federal courts. On January 27th the federal Fourth Circuit appeals court will hear arguments—its ruling would override a state one. So far one Republican state justice has voiced opposition to Mr Griffin’s arguments. Citing doctrine that prohibits changing election law late in the process, Richard Dietz chastised Republicans for trying to scrap ballots of voters who complied with current rules. Doing so, he wrote, “invites incredible mischief”. 

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Economics

Will Elon Musk’s cash splash pay off in Wisconsin?

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TO GET A sense of what the Republican Party thinks of the electoral value of Elon Musk, listen to what Brad Schimel, a conservative candidate for the Supreme Court of Wisconsin, has to say about the billionaire. At an event on March 29th at an airsoft range (a more serious version of paintball) just outside Kenosha, five speakers, including Mr Schimel, spoke for over an hour about the importance of the election to the Republican cause. Mr Musk’s political action committees (PACs) have poured over $20m into the race, far more than any other donor’s. But over the course of the event, his name came up precisely zero times.

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Economics

German inflation, March 2025

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Customers shop for fresh fruits and vegetables in a supermarket in Munich, Germany, on March 8, 2025.

Michael Nguyen | Nurphoto | Getty Images

German inflation came in at a lower-than-expected 2.3% in March, preliminary data from the country’s statistics office Destatis showed Monday.

It compares to February’s 2.6% print, which was revised lower from a preliminary reading, and a poll of Reuters economists who had been expecting inflation to come in at 2.4% The print is harmonized across the euro area for comparability. 

On a monthly basis, harmonized inflation rose 0.4%. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy costs, came in at 2.5%, below February’s 2.7% reading.

Meanwhile services inflation, which had long been sticky, also eased to 3.4% in March, from 3.8% in the previous month.

The data comes at a critical time for the German economy as U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs loom and fiscal and economic policy shifts at home could be imminent.

Trade is a key pillar for the German economy, making it more vulnerable to the uncertainty and quickly changing developments currently dominating global trade policy. A slew of levies from the U.S. are set to come into force this week, including 25% tariffs on imported cars — a sector that is key to Germany’s economy. The country’s political leaders and car industry heavyweights have slammed Trump’s plans.

Meanwhile Germany’s political parties are working to establish a new coalition government following the results of the February 2025 federal election. Negotiations are underway between the Christian Democratic Union, alongside its sister party the Christian Social Union, and the Social Democratic Union.

While various points of contention appear to remain between the parties, their talks have already yielded some results. Earlier this month, Germany’s lawmakers voted in favor of a major fiscal package, which included amendments to long-standing debt rules to allow for higher defense spending and a 500-billion-euro ($541 billion) infrastructure fund.

This is a breaking news story, please check back for updates.

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Economics

First-quarter GDP growth will be just 0.3% as tariffs stoke stagflation conditions, says CNBC survey

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U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to members of the media aboard Air Force One before landing in West Palm Beach, Florida, U.S., March 28, 2025. 

Kevin Lamarque | Reuters

Policy uncertainty and new sweeping tariffs from the Trump administration are combining to create a stagflationary outlook for the U.S. economy in the latest CNBC Rapid Update.

The Rapid Update, averaging forecasts from 14 economists for GDP and inflation, sees first quarter growth registering an anemic 0.3% compared with the 2.3% reported in the fourth quarter of 2024. It would be the weakest growth since 2022 as the economy emerged from the pandemic.

Core PCE inflation, meanwhile, the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator, will remain stuck at around 2.9% for most of the year before resuming its decline in the fourth quarter.

Behind the dour GDP forecasts is new evidence that the decline in consumer and business sentiment is showing up in real economic activity. The Commerce Department on Friday reported that real, or inflation-adjusted consumer spending in February rose just 0.1%, after a decline of -0.6% in January. Action Economics dropped its outlook for spending growth to just 0.2% in this quarter from 4% in the fourth quarter.

“Signs of slowing in hard activity data are becoming more convincing, following an earlier worsening in sentiment,” wrote Barclays over the weekend.

Another factor: a surge of imports (which subtract from GDP) that appear to have poured into the U.S. ahead of tariffs.

The good news is the import effect should abate and only two of the 12 economists surveyed see negative growth in Q1. None forecast consecutive quarters of economic contraction. Oxford Economics, which has the lowest Q1 estimate at -1.6%, expects a continued drag from imports but sees second quarter GDP rebounding to 1.9%, because those imports will eventually end up boosting growth when they are counted in inventory or sales measures.

Recession risks rising

On average, most economists forecast a gradual rebound, with second quarter GDP averaging 1.4%, third quarter at 1.6% and the final quarter of the year rising to 2%.

The danger is an economy with anemic growth of just 0.3% could easily slip into negative territory. And, with new tariffs set to come this week, not everyone is so sure about a rebound.

“While our baseline doesn’t show a decline in real GDP, given the mounting global trade war and DOGE cuts to jobs and funding, there is a good chance GDP will decline in the first and even the second quarters of this year,” said Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics. “And a recession will be likely if the president doesn’t begin backtracking on the tariffs by the third quarter.”

Moody’s looks for anemic Q1 growth of just 0.4% that rebounds to 1.6% by year end, which is still modestly below trend.

Stubborn inflation will complicate the Fed’s ability to respond to flagging growth. Core PCE is expected at 2.8% this quarter, rising to 3% next quarter and staying roughly at that level until in drops to 2.6% a year from now.

While the market looks to be banking on rate cuts, the Fed could find them difficult to justify until inflation begins falling more convincingly at the end of the year.

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